Canadian Retail Sales Disappoint

Transcription

1 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Canadian Retail Sales Disappoint #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Housing starts next in line to be affected by the hurricanes. ff After declining as a result of Hurricane Harvey, U.S. industrial production started improving in September. ff United States: Lowest jobless claims numbers since winter ff Canada: Total annual inflation rate up from 1.4% to %. ff Canada: Manufacturing sales were up in August, as retail sales slumped. ff Canadian businesses remain confident. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: Hurricanes have likely had an adverse effect on real GDP growth in Q3. ff The Bank of Canada is expected to take a break from its monetary tightening. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff The hope of tax reform unleashes optimism in markets. ff Bond markets in doubt about another rate increase in Canada this year. ff The loonie falls back to below US$0. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Jimmy Jean, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2017, Group. All rights reserved.

2 Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES CANADA ff Industrial production was up % in September after falling % in August (revised from -0.9%), due largely to Hurricane Harvey. Manufacturing output inched up 0.1% despite further drops in the oil and chemical products sectors. The mining sector grew 0.4%. Energy production bounced back with a % increase after dropping 4.9% in August. ff The total consumer price index (CPI) was up % in September. The total annual inflation rate edged up from 1.4% to %. Clothing, which posted much softer seasonal price increases than we usually see, was the biggest surprise. That said, the annual change in the total CPI continued to climb, but this rise could begin to sputter as of next month as the prices at the pump point to a significant price drop in October now that everything is back to normal after the hurricanes in the southern United States. ff The Philadelphia Fed s manufacturing index rose in October from 23.8 to 27.9, while the New York Fed s Empire index jumped from 24.4 to 3. ff Housing starts fell 4.7% in September after declining % in August. The effect of the hurricanes can be seen in the 15.3% drop in new construction of single-family homes in the southern United States. Declines posted in other regions are in multi-unit housing. Building permits, meanwhile, fell 4.5%. ff After being inflated by the hurricanes, new weekly jobless claims decreased during the week ending October 14 to 222,000, their lowest level since winter ff In September, the leading indicator suffered its first monthly decline since August 2016, dropping % after a gain of 0.4% in August The main negative contributions came from hours worked, jobless claims and building permits. ff Sales of existing homes rose % in September after shrinking 1.7% in August. This is the first increase since May. Annualized sales inched up from 5,350,000 to 5,390,000 units. The only region that went down is the southern United States, which continues to be affected by the hurricanes and where resales dropped 0.9%, including an 1% contraction in condominiums. ff The Bank of Canada s Business Outlook Survey shows continued confidence among respondents. Businesses are expecting sustained sales growth. Respondents also indicate that there have been greater pressures on production capacity and on the labour market over the past year, which suggests that unused capacity is about to be absorbed. ff The value of retail sales was down % in August, versus a consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Expressed in real terms, retail sales fell %. This reduction will curb economic growth in August. Certain one-time factors appear to have affected retail trade. Furthermore, the 2.9% drop in grocery store sales is surprising this marks the sharpest decline since January Excluding grocery stores, retail sales ticked up 0.1% last August, suggesting that the overall trend in retail sales remains positive. ff The value of manufacturing sales rebounded with a % increase in August, putting an end to two consecutive months of declines. Among others, car sales surged 12.9% during the month. In real terms, total sales were up 1.2%, while inventories pulled back %. The manufacturing sector is therefore expected to make a positive contribution to economic growth in August. Francis Généreux, Senior economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist 2

3 Financial Markets Disappointing Canadian Data Weighs on the Loonie Without making any spectacular gains, the S&P 500 was able to stay above 2,550 points for most of the week. A little more volatility was felt as of Thursday, when renewed tensions in Spain spooked global stock markets. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 600 index had its worst session since the end of August. The S&P 500 also fell sharply on Thursday, but managed to end the session with a very slim gain. Optimism was the name of the game on Friday, after the U.S. Senate adopted a budget for fiscal 2018, marking an important step for the much-awaited tax reform. The S&P/TSX was mostly flat after several weeks of gains. A drop in oil prices put a bit of a dent in the energy sector, which the industrial sector helped offset. The agreement between Bombardier and Airbus on the C Series was among the more favourable elements. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,575 15,950 15,800 2,550 15,650 2,525 15,500 2,500 15,350 15,200 2,475 15,050 2,450 14, /09/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /10/19 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies In bond markets, U.S. investors paid close attention to rumours about Janet Yellen s (possible) successor as Federal Reserve Chair. The name of John B. Taylor kept popping up among the candidates favoured to replace Janet Yellen, which some investors viewed as potentially hawkish by mid-week. The budget announcement in the United States on Friday gave longer term yields another boost. In Canada, the Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC) issued new dovish comments over the weekend, putting the spreads between U.S. and Canadian yields on a downward trajectory. The disappointing data on inflation and retail sales strengthened this trend on Friday morning. Markets are increasingly doubtful that the BoC will order another rate hike before the end of the year. The greenback seesawed this week, ending the week on a high note, buoyed by the optimism spurred by the Senate s budget adoption. The euro was once again rattled by the political uncertainties in Catalonia, wiping out part of the ground recovered last week. In step with the trend for European currencies, the pound fell back to below US$2. The uncertainties surrounding Brexit remain. The loonie hovered at around US$0. Friday s session was more difficult for the loonie, with Canada s currency declining to below US$95 due to increasing doubts about monetary tightening in Canada. Jimmy Jean, CFA, Senior economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior economist GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points In % /09/ /09/15 Spread (left) 2017/09/ /10/03 United States (right) 2017/10/ /10/19 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ /09/ /09/ /09/ /10/03 Canadian dollar (left) 2017/10/ /10/19 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3

4 A Look Ahead UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY October 25 - September m/m % % August % New durable goods orders (September) As usual, new durable goods orders have been seesawing in recent months due to fluctuations in the aviation sector. After plummeting 56.0% in, this sector (including military aircraft) recorded growth of 15.2% in August. A drop is expected in September, despite an increase in Boeing orders. That is because seasonal adjustments are expected to reverse this gain. Durable goods orders excluding transportation should see growth of about % based on good performance in machinery production and, especially, the high ISM manufacturing index. Total orders are expected to be stagnant, however. WEDNESDAY October 25 - September ann. rate 555, ,000 August 560,000 New home sales (September) In August, sales of new single-family homes were hit by Hurricane Harvey. They were down 4.7% in the southern United States and 3.4% nationally. Hurricane Irma s sweep through Florida may have adversely affected October data, but that should be offset by the post-harvey rebound. We note that mortgage applications surged in mid-september after having declined in August. The number of building permits for single-family homes also points to higher sales. We expect sales to go to 585,000 units. FRIDAY October 27 - Q st est. ann. rate 2.6% 2.3% Q rd est. 3.1% Real GDP (Q3 advance estimate) Like many other economic indicators, real GDP growth in Q3 has definitely been affected by the hurricanes that hit in August and September. August data even point to a sharp slowdown relative to the annualized gain of 3.1% recorded in the spring. However, the September rebound is keeping fears of too sharp a drop at bay. Growth in consumption should be around %, despite an expected decline in non-durable goods. That is because the rebound in car and retail sales over the past month saved the day. After a strong gain of 6.7% in Q3, a slowdown in investment is expected, particularly in construction. However, business inventories should make a positive contribution to growth, just like net exports. All in all, real GDP should rise 2.3%. CANADA MONDAY October 23 - August m/m 0.4% 0.5% % WEDNESDAY October 25 - October 0% 0% September 6 0% Wholesale sales (August) There has been much volatility in wholesale sales in recent months. Under the circumstances, the strong increase of % observed in is likely to be followed by far more subdued gains in August. It is important to note that the value of merchandise exports dropped % during the month, which will affect some wholesalers. That said, the trend in retail trade continues to be very positive, a favourable situation for wholesalers. The bottom line is that a slight increase in wholesale sales is expected. Bank of Canada meeting (October) After raising its key interest rates twice this summer, once in and then in September, the Bank of Canada (BoC) may take a break in October and opt for the status quo. It is worth noting that the robust growth of the Canadian economy observed in the first half of 2017 has lost some steam recently, reducing the urgency for monetary tightening in the country. An update of the economic and financial outlooks from the monetary authorities will also be unveiled Wednesday with the publication of the Monetary Policy Report. Despite the recent slowdown in some economic indicators, a favourable outlook from the BoC is to be expected, which will pave the way for further increases in key interest rates in the future, possibly in December or January. 4

5 OVERSEAS WEDNESDAY October 25-4:30 Q q/q % Q % United Kingdom: Real GDP (Q3) The British economy is going through a more difficult phase. The resilience recorded in 2016 in the wake of the June Brexit referendum is now deflated. Average nonannualized growth in real GDP was just % in Q A similar performance is expected for Q3, as higher inflation caused by the falling pound continues to erode households buying power and as uncertainty affects investment. THURSDAY October 26-7:45 October % % September 7 % : European Central Bank meeting (October) The European Central Bank (ECB) suggested that it would be announcing changes to its asset purchase program. It is currently spending 60B per month. It could announce a pullback effective early next year. It could also give longer-term indications regarding the duration of its program and the pace of future reductions in its purchases. At the same time, it will likely not want to send too hawkish a signal to avoid giving the euro new impetus. The ECB showed some discomfort in September with the rising euro, which is having a downward effect on its inflation forecasts. Among the economic indicators to be published during the week in the euro zone, a preliminary October version of consumer confidence will be released Monday. The index has been trending upward for several months. The euro zone s PMI indexes will be published Tuesday, whereas s IFO business indexes will be released Wednesday. 5

6 Economic Indicators Week of October 23 to 27, 2017 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY 23 TUESDAY 24 WEDNESDAY 25 Durable goods orders (m/m) New home sales (ann. rate) % 555,000 % 585,000 % 560,000 Initial unemployment claims Goods trade balance preliminary (US$B) Retail inventories preliminary (m/m) Wholesale inventories preliminary (m/m) Pending home sales (m/m) , % 233,000-63,5 222, % 0.9% -2.6% Real GDP (ann. rate) Michigan s consumer sentiment index final Q3f 2.6% % % 10 Wholesale sales (m/m) Wholesale inventories (m/m) 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% % % 16:00 Federal Government s 2017 Economic and Fiscal Update Bank of Canada meeting Release of the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report 0% 0% 0% Average weekly earnings (y/y) Number of salaried employees (m/m) 1.4% % 1.8% 0.1% THURSDAY 26 FRIDAY 27 CANADA MONDAY 23 TUESDAY 24 WEDNESDAY 25 THURSDAY 26 FRIDAY 27 Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6

7 Economic Indicators Week of October 23 to 27, 2017 Country Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y Hour Indicator MONDAY 23 Japan Japan 1:00 1:00 Leading indicator final Coincident indicator final Consumer confidence preliminary TUESDAY 24 2:45 2:45 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:30 3:30 3:30 Business confidence Production outlook PMI composite index preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary PMI services index preliminary PMI composite index preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary PMI services index preliminary PMI composite index preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary PMI services index preliminary WEDNESDAY 25 Brazil United Kingdom United Kingdom -- 4:30 4:30 Bank of Brazil meeting IFO survey Business climate IFO survey Current situation IFO survey Expectations Index of services Real GDP preliminary Q3 7.50% % % % 8.25% % % % THURSDAY 26 Italy Italy Italy Norway Japan Japan 2:00 7:45 19:30 19:30 Consumer confidence Money supply M3 Consumer confidence Business confidence Economic confidence Bank of Norway meeting Minutes of the European Central Bank meeting Consumer price index Consumer price index Tokyo Nov % 5.0% % 0.50% % % % 0.1% % 0.5% FRIDAY 27 Russia 2:45 6:30 Consumer confidence Bank of Russia meeting OVERSEAS % % Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). 7

8 UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index (Dec = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year ,031 11,853 2, , ,181 2,795 17, Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 * VARIATION (%) LEVEL month -3 months -6 months -1 year ISM non-manufacturing index Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) ,890 12,802 3, , Excluding automobiles ($M) 383, Housing starts (k)1 * * * , ,521 1,889 1, , , , ,062 Building permits (k)1 * 1,215 1,272 1,275 1,260 1,270 New home sales (k) * 5,390 5,350 5,510 5,700 5,470 Commercial surplus ($M)1-42,395-43,558-46,395-44,507-41, , , Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) * * Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Existing home sales (k) 1 Nonfarm employment (k) Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price ( = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) 1 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8

9 CANADA Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year Current account balance ($M)1 1,849,280 1,061, , , ,940 11, , ,879 1,823, , , , , , ,207 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) ,213, , Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. CANADA Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 1,741, ,142 53, ,543 48, * 35, ,382-3,413-2,983-1, , ,928 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) 43,630 47, Employment (k)2 18, * , * * , Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Unemployment rate (%)1 Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9

10 UNITED STATES, CANADA, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) ,569 23,238 1, ,553 22,872 1, ,502 22,350 1, ,473 21,580 1, ,349 20,548 1, ,141 18,146 1, ,569 23,238 1, ,367 20,807 1, ,085 17,888 1, Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target - Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years -2 Treasury bonds 10 years -6 Treasury bonds 30 years S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 15, , , , , , , , , Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 3 7, , , , , , , , , Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) , , , ,240 12, , , , ,259 Japan BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 21, , , , , , , , , CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10