Employment Figures for September Down in Quebec, Up in Ontario

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Clement Cooper
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ECONOMIC NEWS Employment Figures for September Down in, Up in HIGHLIGHTS ff saw the highest job creation in in September, with new jobs. Part-time employment recorded the most gains.

ff In, Statistics reported an estimated 8,300 fewer jobs in September. The losses were mostly in full-time employment. This is the fourth consecutive month of job losses.

COMMENTS In September, recorded the highest gains in educational services (+14,200) and construction (+13,700).

1 ECONOMIC NEWS Employment Figures for September Down in, Up in HIGHLIGHTS ff saw the highest job creation in in September, with new jobs. Part-time employment recorded the most gains. ff The unemployment rate climbed from % in August to % last month, however. The labour force grew faster than employment (50,700 workers). ff In, Statistics reported an estimated 8,300 fewer jobs in September. The losses were mostly in full-time employment. This is the fourth consecutive month of job losses. ff At the same time, the unemployment rate in decreased 0.3 percentage points to reach %, the same level as in May, and the lowest level since the beginning of COMMENTS In September, recorded the highest gains in educational services (+14,200) and construction (+13,700). In, most employment gains were seen in wholesaling and retailing (+15,000), which were offset in large part by job losses, in particular, in IT, culture and recreation (-18,500), and educational services (-11,200). #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA TABLE Average monthly job growth in 2018 Q3 Q2 Q1-6,333 5,533-5,200 15,067-1,433-8,200 Source: Desjardins, Economic Studies IMPLICATIONS Now that the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations has subsided and the general terms of the USMCA are known, some projects that were put on hold by businesses may now move forward. Will job growth suddenly take off? Not necessarily. On the one hand, some industrial projects may require greater automation than human resources. And, on the other hand, the labour shortage persists in both and. The imbalance between the skills of people seeking employment and the skills employers need remains unresolved and continues to hamper faster job growth. Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist September s figures allowed the third quarter to be closed and an overview to be prepared (table). The average number of jobs created each month from to September was negative in (-6,333), a higher figure than that recorded in the second quarter (-5,200) and the first quarter (-1,433). In, the period from to September ended on a positive note, with an average monthly gain of 5,533 jobs. However, this number is lower than that for April to June (+15,067), but clearly higher than that recorded at the beginning of the year (-8,200). François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 2018, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.

2 Reference Tables of Labour Market TABLE 1 Variation by sector September 2018 Construction Finance, insurance, real estate Public administration Wholesale and retail trade 28,000 13, 12, 11,500 33,700 19,500 19,700-56,300 Information, culture and recreation Business services Educational services Prof., scientific and technical services -17,200-10,200 5, 19,500 56,000-8, Wholesale and retail trade Construction Health care and social assistance Finance, insurance, real estate 15,000 5,500 4,800 2,400-11,500 6,600 10,900 12, Information, culture and recreation Educational services Manufacturing Business services -18,500-11,200-8,500-4,200-11,200 1,500-4,900 6,200 Educational services Construction Finance, insurance, real estate Public administration 14,200 13,700 9,700 8,500 38,900 13,500 15,900-6,400-6, -4,500-3,500-3,000 11,900-22,600-20,400-17,000 GAINING SECTORS LOSING SECTORS Accommodation and food services Health care and social assistance Manufacturing Prof., scientific and technical services Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" TABLE 2 By sector NUMBER OF JOBS September months (%) 18,693,800 4,245,000 7,261,000-8,300 65,800-19,000 16,600 48,700-38,900 37, ,400 82, Public sector employees 3,812, ,000 1,401,600 2,300-7,700 5,600 13,900-17,900 33, 53,700-23,600 78,800-15,800 67, Private sector employees 12,043,200 2,758,200 4,722,400 95,800 17,900 17,500 70,300 3,200-29,000 22,200-37, ,500 35,500 6, ,837, ,800 1,137,000-35,000-18,400 13,000-18,500-4,400 12,400-27,300-11,700 11,700-3,000 8, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Self-employed Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 2

3 TABLE 3 Recent trends SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE RATE (%) Numbers 3 months Numbers * Part. Empl. Unempl. Sept. Oct. Nov. Jan Feb March 2018 April 2018 May Sept ,471,400 18,499, 18,580,300 18,645, 18,557, 18,572,500 18,604,800 18,603,700 18,596,200 18,628,000 18,682, 18,630,500 18,693,800 12,600 27,700 81,200 64,800-88,000 15,400 32,300-7,500 31,800 54, -51,600 58,300 62, , ,700 58,000-7,800-40,300 46,600 23,700 23,200 78,400 34,300 65, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,400 19,689,300 19,720,300 19,748,300 19,784,200 19,710,500 19,716,800 19,746,900 19,758,700 19,747,800 19,823,400 19,842,500 19,825,700 19,864,900 16,800 31,000 28,000 35,900-73,700 6,300 30, 11,800-10,900 75,600 19, -16,800 39, Sept. Oct. Nov. Jan Feb March 2018 April 2018 May Sept ,228,900 4,247,700 4,263,500 4,283,900 4,266,500 4,263,600 4,279,600 4,265,800 4,270,500 4,264,000 4,255,600 4,253,300 4,245,000-4,500 18,800 15,800 20,400-17,400-2,900 16,000-13,800 4,700-8,400-2,300-8,300-8,600 8,500 30, 55,000 18,800-4, ,900-15,600-10,200-17,200-19,000 53,200 69,400 82,200 94, 70,500 73,800 85,000 72,800 65,300 26,500 16,400 19,900 4,497,800 4,518,000 4,507,800 4,510, 4,508,600 4,517,500 4,531, 4,508,300 4,510,900 4,507,200 4,505,700 4,504,500 4,484,300 20,200-10,200 2,300-1,500 8,900 13,600-22,800 2,600-3,700-1,500-1,200-20, Sept. Oct. Nov. Jan Feb March 2018 April 2018 May Sept ,178,200 7,180,700 7,217,700 7,223,800 7,172,900 7,188,600 7,199,200 7,208,500 7,209,500 7,244,400 7,305,000 7,224,900 7,261,000 31,900 2,500 37,000 6, -50,900 15,700 10,600 9,300 1,000 34,900 60,600-80, 90,600 58,300 71,400 45,600-7,800-29, -24,600 35,600 20,900 45,200 96,500 15,400 16, , , , , , , , , , , ,600 78,600 82,800 7,609,800 7,625,300 7,638,600 7,648,300 7,593,500 7,603, 7,619,200 7,632,500 7,646,400 7,702,600 7,720,900 7,663,200 7,713,900 44,200 15,500 13,300 9,700-54,800 9,600 13,300 13,900 56,200 18,300-57,700 50, Part.: Participation; Empl.: Employment; Unempl.: Unemployment; * Variation over a month. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 3

4 TABLE 4 Other labour market indicators LAST PUBLICATION PREVIOUS DATA Month Level - -3 months -6 months - Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Source: Statistics 's "Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours" TABLE 5 Annual data ANNUAL AVERAGES Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 17,438, , ,691, 253, ,802, , ,946, , ,079, , ,416, , Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 4,005,900 30, ,060,800 54, ,059, ,097,000 37, ,133, ,223,300 90, Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 6,702,600 44, ,823, , ,877,900 54, ,923,200 45, ,999,600 76, ,128, , Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 4

5 QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Level of employment Participation Rate In % 68 4,250 7,250 4,150 7, 4,050 6,950 3,950 6,800 3,850 6,650 3,750 6,500 3,650 6,350 (left) (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Employment Rate Unemployment Rate In % In % Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO UNITED STATES CANADA Employment Index Evolution of employment February 2001 = United States Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies QUEBEC ONTARIO Evolution of employment Evolution of employment Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies 5

6 TABLE 6 By province September 2018 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia PREVIOUS MONTHS ACTUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES EMPLOYMENT months 6 months Since 1 year 18,693,800 18,630,500 18,682, 18,628,000 18,668,800 18,639,050 18,607,767 18,471,400-51,600 54, 31,800 21,933 14,833 18, , * 227, 226, , , , , , , , , , , * 76,400 76,200 76,500 76,200 76,367 76,017 75,267 73, , * 456, , , , , , , ,000 1, , , ,700 1, , * 354, , , 355, , , , , 1, , , * 4,245,000 4,253,300 4,255,600 4,264,000 4,251,300 4,259,033 4,263,250 4,228,900-8,300-2,300-8,400-6,333-5,767 1, * 7,261,000 7,224,900 7,305,000 7,244,400 7,263,633 7,242,217 7,219,683 7,178,200-80, 60,600 34,900 5,533 10,300 6,900 82, * 648, 649, , , , , , ,500 2,600 4, , * 571, , , , , , , , 1, , , , , * 2,337,900 2,340,800 2,324,600 2,328,200 2,334,433 2,330,167 2,320,892 2,282,400-2, , , , , , , * 2,516,400 2,483, 2,473,200 2,462,000 2,490,900 2,481,183 2,482,025 2,473,400 33, ,900 11, , , , , , * Unempl.: Unemployement; * Variation in employment over a year. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 6

Quebec and Ontario create jobs in May

Quebec and Ontario create jobs in May ECONOMIC NEWS and create jobs in May #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS GRAPH ff created 14,9 new jobs in May. Job growth in and has been comparable for the past two years, despite the differences