Nevada Adds 5,200 Jobs in November; State Added 51,900 Jobs Over the Last Year, The Largest Annual Increase in More than 12 Years

Transcription

1 NOVEMBER STATEWIDE LABOR MARKET RELEASE For Immediate Release December 19, 2018 Nevada Adds 5,200 Jobs in November; State Added 51,900 Jobs Over the Last Year, The Largest Annual Increase in More than 12 Years CARSON CITY, NV Nevada added 5,200 jobs over the month and 51,900 jobs over the year, according to the state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation s (DETR) November 2018 economic report. The 51,900 jobs added over the last year was the largest annual increase in over 12 years, and the growth rate of 3.8 percent was among the fastest the state has seen since before the recession. The state s unemployment rate in November 2018 was unchanged over the month, remaining at 4.4 percent. Compared to last November, the state s unemployment rate is down half a percentage point. "As the hardest-hit state in the nation in 2010, the Silver State s recovery over the last eight years and the economic expansion we have experienced has helped put Nevada on a new path to economic resiliency, Governor Brian Sandoval said. After losing over 180,000 jobs in the recession, we have added nearly 293,000 jobs, small businesses now employ 136,000 more workers than during the recession and we have had one of the fastest-growing private sectors in the nation for the last five years. Over the last eight years, the number of unemployed Nevadans has fallen dramatically, our industries have and continue to diversify, and average wages are rising. With 95 consecutive months of year-over-year job growth, we must continue the economic development and retention work we have invested in to ensure the Silver State is a great place to work and live for many generations to come. DETR s report also notes that estimates show that initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits totaled 11,940 this month. Relative to last November, claims are down 11.6 percent, a nominal decrease of 1,560 claims. Overall, the state is seeing significant employment growth across a number of industries. The professional and business services and construction industries each added over 10,000 jobs over the year, with leisure & hospitality and manufacturing industries adding another 8,100 and 7,000 jobs respectively. Construction is continuing to add jobs at a rapid pace, and yet is still around 50,000 jobs less than in Wages are increasing at a pace slightly above the rate of inflation. And while seasonal retail trade employment growth was weaker than normal, transportation and warehousing has increased significantly instead, contributing to solid holiday hiring trends so far. Finally, employment growth in the private sector improved one spot from last quarter, to third best nationally. said David Schmidt, Chief Economist for DETR. Additional November Report Notes: Total employment rose by 3.8% over the year, above the high end of the range seen over the last year ( %), and more than double the current U.S. growth rate (1.7%). As of second quarter of 2018, Nevada ranks 3 rd in the nation fastest-growing private sector. As of second quarter of 2018, employment in Nevada s small business, firms with less than 100 employees, totaled nearly 646,000.

2 Weekly wages in Nevada averaged $930 during the second quarter of 2018, an increase of $30, or 3.3 percent, yearover-year. Nearly 136,000 jobs have been added to small business payrolls in the Silver State since the recovery began. As defined by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Nevada gross domestic product totaled over $148 billion (in 2012 dollars) in this year s second quarter (In current dollars, this equates to over $168 billion). Nevada employment gains have been concentrated in full-time positions at 78.7 percent of total employment, while part-time positions account for 21.3 percent. Year-to-date through November, 287,445 ads have been posted for jobs in Nevada, an increase of 96,552 (50.6 percent) from the same period last year. ---###--- Visit us and Follow us on Twitter: ABOUT THE RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS BUREAU The Research and Analysis Bureau is Nevada s premier source for labor market information. A part of DETR, the Bureau is responsible for creating, analyzing, and reporting Nevada s labor market information, in cooperation with the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

3 RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS BUREAU BRIAN SANDOVAL GOVERNOR DON SODERBERG DIRECTOR DAVID SCHMIDT CHIEF ECONOMIST NEVADA LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW November 2018 Nevada Recovery Scorecard November 2018 Employment In Nevada, 184,700 jobs were lost as the recession unfolded. Since then, 292,600 jobs have been added, with employment levels over 1.41 million. Nevada had the most pronounced private sector job losses in the nation during the recession. Currently, Nevada has the 3 rd fastestgrowing private sector in the nation.* Small businesses in Nevada support 646,000 jobs, nearly 60,000 more than the previous peak reached in 2007 and 136,000 more than at the depth of the recession.* The number of employers in Nevada stands at 78,800, the highest reading on record and an increase of 7,450 since the recession. ** Unemployment Nevada s unemployment rate reached a high of 13.7 percent during the Great Recession. Since then, the jobless rate has decreased by over nine full percentage points, to 4.4 percent. Initial claims for unemployment insurance peaked at a 12-month average of 28,600 per month during the recession. Since then, that measure has dropped by over 64 percent to 10,429 claims. Trust fund balance at record high of nearly $1.42 billion, after reaching a low of negative $798.9 million during the recession.** Wages Average weekly wages in Nevada are $930, up 3.3% over the year.* * QCEW data is for 2018:IIQ ** Number of employers and Trust Fund balance are from 2018:IIIQ, low from 2012:IQ Nevada Nonfarm Jobs: October - November Change Expected Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted Change Movement Change Total Nonfarm Jobs 3,400-1,800 5,200 Private Sector 1,700-1,900 3,600 Public Sector 1, ,600 Labor market information through November of 2018 has been released, allowing us to take stock of Nevada s progress over the course of the economic expansion via the Silver State s quarterly Recovery Scorecard. The State continues to see positive trends across a range of measures, including ongoing job gains, the 3rd fastest-growing private sector in the nation, strong small business employment, and relatively low unemployment rates and unemployment insurance claims activity. Nevada saw 5,200 new jobs in November, seasonally-adjusted, bringing total employment to 1,405,200. This month s over-themonth gain was 4,000 jobs higher than the Statewide increase seen in November of The October estimate was revised up by 2,100, bringing the total two-month gain to 12,200 jobs. November s positive seasonally adjusted gain comes as a result of the State adding 3,400 jobs, unadjusted, when 1,800 jobs were expected to be lost based on historical patterns. The private sector saw the largest share of gains, adding 3,600 jobs, while the public sector lost 1,600. The Silver State has added 51,900 jobs since the same month last year, a gain of 3.8 percent. National employment grew by 1.7 percent over the period, meaning the Silver State is growing more than twice as fast as the national average. Year to date, manufacturing is growing at the 500 E. Third St. Carson City, Nevada (775) Fax (775)

4 fastest rate (up 14.1 percent), after adding 6,700 through November versus the same period last year. Construction has added the most jobs, with a gain of 7,900 or 9.5 percent. Other services grew by 4.6 percent and education and health services grew by 4.6 percent. Information remains the only sector to see fewer jobs year to date. Increases in both brick-and-mortar and online shopping activity rise from September through December each year. When shopping activity increases around this time, holiday hiring in the trade and transportation industries in Nevada typically does as well. Utilizing the most recent Current Employment Statistics data, we provide an update on the seasonal hiring trends in 2018 in the trade and transportation industries in Nevada from September through November. In the years immediately preceding the recession, holiday-related seasonal jobs approached 7,000 over this three-month span in Nevada. As the recession unfolded, the usual seasonal gains disappeared and job growth over the holiday period briefly turned negative. As the recovery began, however, seasonal hiring picked back up, reaching a high of 10,600 in 2017 from September through Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Leisure & Hospitality Nevada Nonfarm Job Growth by Industry Construction Manufacturing Government Other Services Financial Activities Mining & Logging Information annual job growth (SA) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 YTD job growth 0 Nevada Job Growth vs. Year Ago D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N '17 '18 jobs pct. change November. The record highs realized in 2017 can be attributed, in large part, to new distribution centers and other large warehouses opening and hiring in Las Vegas around that time. From 2000 to 2017, increases in holiday-related seasonal jobs have averaged 6,600 from September through November. With the emergence of ecommerce and the closings of many brick and mortar retail stores, a shift in industries appears to be occurring. So far in 2018 (September-November), seasonal hires have accounted for a loss of 600 jobs in wholesale trade and a gain of 5,800 jobs in the retail trade industry. The retail trade holiday-related hires are the lowest seen since 2010 and the wholesale industry s numbers are the lowest seen dating back to the year However, in the transportation/warehousing industries holiday-related hiring increases through November is the most seen on record, accounting for 3,700 jobs. In total, 8,900 jobs have been added so far in the holiday season and have well surpassed the average number of hires realized historically from September through November. All told, holiday hiring trends are proving to be relatively strong this year. 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% annual percent change

5 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released 2018:IIQ state gross domestic product (GDP) information, the broadest measure of economic activity. 16% 14% 12% Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S. As defined by BEA, GDP totaled over $148 billion (in 2012 dollars) in this year s second quarter (In current dollars, this equates to over $168 billion). In 2018, while the Silver State s economy has been on the rise since 2011, the value of real economic activity, measured in inflation-adjusted terms, in the State remains slightly below pre-recession levels. Nevada s economy has now grown in 17 consecutive quarters. The Silver State s economic growth over the year has exceeded the national average in six consecutive quarters. In 2018:IIQ, Nevada s economy has grown by 4.1 percent from the same time last year, compared to the nation as a whole who grew by 2.9 percent. It is important to note that the GDP growth rate was not calculated as an over the quarter annualized rate making the State and national GDP growth not comparable to the rates commonly published by the BEA. Year-over-year GDP growth in Nevada is the fourth strongest in the nation. Growth in the State s largest industry, accommodation/food services, declined 1.2 percent over the year in the second quarter Broad based growth was seen in most industries; the most notable were manufacturing totaling 18.6 percent and arts, entertainment totaling 14.3 percent. Among other things, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics Program allows us to look at Nevada s relative performance as it pertains to business establishment openings. unemployment rate (SA) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Nevada U.S. nation as a whole. In the United States, there were 432,000 new businesses during the first quarter of 2018, up 13 percent from the beginning of the recovery. During the first quarter of 2018, Nevada had 4,530 new business establishments. This is up approximately 44 percent from the beginning of 2011, when the labor market first showed signs of expansion. Openings have exceeded 4,000 in each of the past eight quarters. Most importantly, underlying trends in business openings show that growth has been fairly consistent over time. These results highlight the improvement in Nevada, both in absolute terms, and relative to the U.S. as a whole. In the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program employment and wage data is collected and compiled for workers covered by Nevada unemployment insurance laws, and federal civilian workers covered by Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees. Nevada s labor market has experienced growth since bottoming out in Since then, trends in business establishment openings have seen stronger growth than in the As of 2018:IIQ, employment in Nevada s small business, firms with less than 100 employees, totaled nearly 646,000. This establishes a new record high continuing the trend

6 beginning in 2015:IIQ. It also marks the thirteenth-consecutive quarter in which the pre-recessionary peak has been exceeded. The over-the-year gain recorded was 21,800. This translates to 30 consecutive quarters of annualized growth. For 2018:IIQ the year over year growth was 3.5 percent. It also marks the eighth time in the past 13 quarters that the growth rate for small business employment has exceeded three percent. Prior to the recession, small business employment peaked at nearly 586,000 in 2007:IVQ. As the downturn unfolded, small business jobs fell to 510,000. In contrast to that, nearly 136,000 jobs have been added to small business payrolls in the Silver State since the recovery began. Additionally, the pre-recessionary peak has been exceeded by nearly 60,000 jobs. Utilizing the most current QCEW information, we also analyze Nevada s average weekly wages this month. Weekly wages in Nevada averaged $930 during the second quarter of This compares to $900 during the same period last year, an increase of $30, or 3.3 percent, year-over-year. This establishes a new record high for the second quarter exceeding the previous, $900, set in 2017:IIQ. Wages have been trending up since Wage gains early in the recovery initially were modest. However, since 2014 gains have been relatively strong with 15 of the last 18 quarters realizing gains. At the height of the recession, wages declined in five of seven quarters. Since 2014, wages have increased by an average of approximately 7.2 percent. During that same time, the increase in consumer prices or inflation, has grown at an average rate of 6.3 percent. This suggests that wages are growing in real terms, when adjusted for inflation. This month, we also examine recent QCEW data to analyze and compare the State s private sector job growth against its national counterparts. Information obtained through the QCEW Program provides a nearly complete job count based upon quarterly wage records submitted by employers whose employees are covered under the Unemployment Insurance System. As a result, historical information is subject to minimal, if any, revisions. This data encompasses jobs in all fifty states plus the District of Columbia. Because generating this information is a time-consuming process, it is only available with a 4-5 month lag. In the years preceding the economic downturn, Nevada led the country in private sector employment growth. Indeed, Nevada had the highest employment growth rate in the country in 2005 (6.4 percent). Conversely, during the recession, Nevada was the most affected state in terms of private sector employment growth. In fact, Nevada s employment growth was the lowest in the nation in 2009 (-10.1 percent) and 2010 (-2.8 percent). In essence, over the course of three years, the Silver State went from the top of the job growth rankings to the bottom. Nevada has gradually regained lost ground over nearly eight years. With data through the second quarter of 2018, Nevada is once again one of the states with the fastest growing private sectors in the United States. Relative to 2017, 41,800 jobs were added, a growth rate of 3.6 percent. Just ahead of the Silver State, in terms of growth, are Utah and Idaho. The Occupation Employment Statistics (OES) program collects wage and employment data for 840 occupations and is the primary source of this information in the U.S. Ten-year projected data is derived from a detailed analysis of QCEW industry data

7 and OES information. This month, we analyze the top ten occupations in the manufacturing sector with the largest projected growth. Electrical & electronic equipment assemblers represents, by far, the greatest expected tenyear nominal growth (1,700). First-line supervisors of production & operating workers have an annual projected growth rate of 12 percent, and general & operations managers have an expected annual growth rate of 3.9 percent. This gain will result in approximately 2,100 more jobs in the supervisory and managerial positions. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Nevada s mechanical engineers have an annual predicted growth rate of 10.4 percent, and electrical engineers are projected to grow by 14.6 percent annually; collectively representing over 1,200 jobs in 10 years. Data from the OES program also allows us to determine the average hourly earnings for top ten growing occupations within Nevada s manufacturing industry. The mean hourly wage for general and operations managers in the manufacturing industry is $ When compared to their non-manufacturing counterparts, general and operations managers make on average $0.91 more per hour. Electrical engineers earn a mean hourly wage of $46.39, and mechanical engineers earn a mean hourly wage of $ Five of the ten fastest growing occupations earn six dollars or better per hour than the Statewide average hourly wage of $ Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance 0 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 claims 12-month moving average The unemployment rate in Nevada held steady at 4.4 percent from October to November. This is down from 4.9 percent a year ago, and is the lowest rate since June 2007, nearly eleven years ago. Nationally, the unemployment rate remained unchanged from October, holding steady at 3.7 percent in November. The gap between Nevada s rate and the nation s remains at 0.7 percentage point this month. Data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), the Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) permits for the analysis of the labor force for the veteran population in Nevada. CPS estimates are available since According to the BLS, Veterans are men and women who previously served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces, and who were civilians at the time they were surveyed. A 12-month moving average was used to calculate the figures above. This reduces some of the volatility in the data, and gives more stable estimates. The population of veterans in Nevada remained relatively flat until 2014, and since has seen fast growth. In contrast, the national veteran population has been steadily declining from 2007 to present. The Nevada labor force and number of employed veterans has been relatively flat since 2007 with several periods of volatility. One period was a large decline in the labor force and employment levels of veterans in Nevada during the recession from the end of

8 2009 to early 2012, and another decline in recent months beginning January Despite the growth of the veteran population in Nevada the labor force and number of employed veterans has not also grown. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Nevada Online Job Postings During the recession from 2007 to 2012 there was a decrease in the veteran labor force and the number of employed veterans with no noticeable decrease in the veteran population. During this time the number of employed veterans reached a low of 95,000 in December ,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 In January 2018 the veteran population in Nevada reached a peak of approximately 271,000. Since then, the population has declined to 240,000 veterans as of October 2018 with a labor force and number of employed veterans also showing declines. Between early 2015 and the end of 2017 the veteran population showed a period of contraction followed by a large expansion that was not mirrored in the labor force or number of employed veterans. The Nevada veteran unemployment rate usually stays on a similar path as the State unemployment rate with exception to during the recession from 2009 to early 2012 when the veteran unemployment rate was much higher than the State unemployment rate. During this time the veteran unemployment rate in Nevada steadily rose reaching a peak of 17.3 percent in July of This was higher than the State unemployment rate of 13.6 percent the same month, and the national veteran rate that peaked at 9.5 percent in January The Nevada veteran unemployment rate in October 2018 was 5.2 percent this is up from the previous year by 0.2 percent from 5.0 percent. This is slightly higher than the national veteran unemployment rate, but is Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average similar to the Nevada unemployment rate. Both the Nevada unemployment rate and Nevada veteran unemployment rates tend to be slightly above the national veteran unemployment rate. Also, on a national level and State level the veteran unemployment rate tends to be lower than the State unemployment rate. This month, we also utilize monthly CPS information for the analysis of full-time and part-time employment in Nevada. Full-time workers include those persons who usually work 35 hours or more during the week. Part-time workers include those who typically work less than 35 hours during the week. Based upon results from the CPS, available since 1994, in December ,330 Nevadans worked full-time, while 157,960 worked part-time; measured on a 12-month moving average. As the State was affected by the 2001 recession, full-time workers fell to 776,970 and part-time increased to 184,800 by December The number of Nevadans employed full-time topped out at 1,063,280 in April Silver State residents employed part-time numbered 235,500. As the 2007 recession took hold of the Silver

9 State, by January 2011 full-time employment fell to 831,150, for a cyclical decline of more than 232,130 from the peak. Part-time employment rose to 300,420 jobs. This resulted in an increase of 64,920 part-time positions over the same period. As of November 2018, Nevadans employed full-time totaled 1,144,620. This is up from 1,051,940 a year ago. The number of Nevadans employed on a part-time basis, remains relatively steady, coming in at 308,910 in November. Part-time is down from 321,000 last year. Nevada employment gains have been concentrated in full-time positions. At the peak level, full-time employment represented 81.9 percent of the total, and part-time 18.1 percent. Currently, 78.7 percent of total employment is full-time, while part-time positions account for 21.3 percent. Information from the monthly CPS, allows for the analysis of workers employed part-time for economic reasons, sometimes called involuntary part-time. The BLS defines these workers as those working less than full-time (1-34 hours in a week) for reasons such as: unfavorable business conditions, inability to find full time work, and seasonal declines in demand. These workers are interested and available to work full time but have been unable to find it. Based upon results from the CPS, available since 1994, the number of Nevadans employed part-time for economic reasons ranged between 19,000 and 29,000 from 1995 to 2000; measured on a 12-month moving average. These Nevadans experienced its lowest level in May 2000 reaching 19,370. By December 2003, these workers rose to 43,340 as the 2001 recession took hold on the Silver State. By June 2011, the number had risen to 105,450 Nevadans (highest level on record), as the Silver State was affected by the 2007 recession. Since that time, the number of these workers has been trending down. Over the past 12 months ending in November 2018, part-time workers for economic reasons have averaged 54,350 in Nevada. This is a decline of 28.8 percent or 22,000 from the same period last year. Although represents a decline of 51,100 from June 2011, it is still above the historical average of 24,800. The BLS captures part-time workers for economic reasons in its Alternative Measure of Labor Underutilization U6 series. During year ending third quarter 2018, U6 stood at 9.4 percent, 4.8 percentage points above the U3 series (the most similar to the official unemployment rate). Another metric the monthly CPS allows analysis for is the unemployment rate in Nevada and the nation across various age groups. CPS unemployment rate by age estimates are available since This month we analyze the unemployment rates across five different age groups in Nevada and the US as a whole. In Nevada the unemployment rates are returning to the historical average over the period examined. Nationally the unemployment rate in November 2018 was 3.9 percent, and in Nevada the unemployment rate was 4.5 percent while the average prior to the recession was 4.8 percent from 1996 through In Nevada and nationally teens and young adults have a higher unemployment rate than other age groups. This is usually due to a lack of job experience when compared to the other age groups, and subsequently as years of experience increase, the unemployment rate tends to decrease. The highest that unemployment reached for the age group was 23 percent in June of 2010 compared to the national unemployment level 18.6 percent at the same time.

10 For the age group the unemployment rate in Nevada was 5.1 percent in November This up slightly higher than the previous year, and higher than the national unemployment rate for this age group of four percent in November 2018, but is normal as Nevada tends to have a higher unemployment rate. In comparison, the unemployment rate for the age group in Nevada decreased to 3.1 percent in November 2018 from the previous year. Compared to the national unemployment rate of three percent in November 2018 the age group in Nevada is similar to the national levels. Among the age group the Nevada unemployment rate of 3.7 percent in November 2018 is lower than the previous year when the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. This is still higher than the national unemployment rate of 2.8 percent. The 55 and older age group in Nevada also saw a decrease in the unemployment rate over the year from 4.5 percent in November 2017 to 3.7 percent in November This compared to the national unemployment rate for the age group of three percent in November Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits totaled 11,940 this month, continuing the seasonal increase in claims experienced in the State around the fourth quarter of each year. Claims activity increased by 20.6 percent relative to last month, with 2,040 more claims in November. However, this is the lowest November reading for initial claims since Relative to last November, claims are down 11.6 percent, a nominal decrease of 1,560 claims. This continues the trend of year-over-year declines in initial claims activity seen in each month of 2018, so far. These continued decreases are also putting downward pressure on multiple computed measures of UI trends. For example, the UI benefits exhaustion rate is down 2.6 percentage points over the year, at 33.2 percent of claimants exhausting their UI benefits. Nevada s UI program sets the maximum weekly benefit that a claimant can receive based on employment and wage data in the State. As the ratio of total wages to total covered employment increases, the maximum weekly benefit amount increases as well. Since 2000, the maximum weekly benefit amount has increased in each year except 2010 and 2011, the height of the recessionary effects on the employment and wage base. The current maximum weekly benefit amount stands at $450. Despite the continued increases in the maximum weekly benefit amount, the total amount compensated by Nevada s UI program has been falling since When we consider a 12-month moving average of the amount compensated, we see that there have been year-over-year declines in the series since August of Nevada s UI recipiency rate, which measures the share of the unemployed receiving regular UI benefits, has averaged 28.6 percent over the past 12 months, well below levels seen prior to the recession. Over the last few years, we have seen nearly all of Nevada s economic measures improve, but the UI recipiency rate has stubbornly remained below thirty percent for much of that time. This begs the question, why aren t we seeing this measure return to levels seen in the past? Lower UI recipiency rates are a trend being seen nationally. This is at least partially explained by a number of states reducing benefit durations and toughening UI eligibility requirements. However, Nevada has done neither of these, making it difficult to under-

11 stand why recipiency rates have remained so low. While there is no clear cause for the lower recipiency rates, some possible contributing factors include a rise in denial rates for nonmonetary nonseparation issues 1, claimants failing to meet minimum eligibility requirements, and the implementation and growth of the Reemployment and Eligibility Assessment program. Further research on the topic is warranted. With real-time labor market information obtained as part of DETR s Silver State Solutions Initiative, we can provide an alternative assessment of the health of the State s economy via an analysis of current online job posting activity 2. Year-to-date through November, 287,445 ads have been posted for jobs in Nevada, an increase of 96,552 (50.6 percent) from the same period last year. Full time jobs accounted for 81.1 percent of listings so far this year, a decline of five percent from Nonmonetary nonseparation issues include able, available, actively seeking; disqualifying/deductible income; refusing suitable work; reporting requirement callins; refusal profiling referrals. 2 Online job postings are obtained through DETR s Silver State Solutions initiative. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. High ad volume often occurs for occupations/ industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools. Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data. 3 Not all job ads specify whether the advertised position is full-time or part-time. This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The U.S. Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/ or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

12 Nevada Labor Market Briefing: November 2018 Special Topics

13 Recovery Scorecard * QCEW data is for 2018:IIQ ** Number of employers and Trust Fund balance are from 2018:IIIQ, low from 2012:IQ

14 Nevada s Economy Has Grown in Each of the Past 17 Quarters; GDP Growth Exceeds the Nation s in Six Consecutive Quarters Nevada GDP 2018:IIQ $168 billion (current dollars) Nevada s economy has now grown in 17 consecutive quarters Nevada exceeded the national average in six consecutive quarters. gross domestic product; millions of 2012 $; seasonally adjusted annual rates $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $125,000 $120,000 $115,000 $110,000 Nevada Gross Domestic Product 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% year-over-year growth -8% -10% Year-over-year GDP growth in Nevada is the 4th-strongest in the nation. $105,000 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 y/y growth gross domestic product -12%

15 Small Business Employment Sets New Record High As of 2018:IIQ, Nevada s small employment totaled nearly 646,000; year over year growth was 3.5%. 700, ,000 Nevada Small Business Employment Number of small businesses has grown by 7,450 to the current level of 78,800. jobs 600, , th consecutive quarters in which the pre-recessionary peak has been exceeded; which translates to 60,000 more jobs. 500, ,000 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

16 Silver State Reaches Highest Average Second Quarter Weekly Wage Average Weekly Wage 2018IIQ: $930 $1,000 Nevada Average Weekly Wages 12.0% Up $30 or 3.3% yearover-year $950 $ % 8.0% Since 2014, wages have increased by an average of approximately 7.2% $850 $ % 4.0% 2.0% Wages are growing in real terms, when adjusted for inflation. $750 $700 $ % -2.0% -4.0% $600 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18-6.0% percentage change average weekly wage

17 Nevada Ranks 3rd in Highest Private Sector Job Growth in 2018; Employment up 41,800 vs During the recession, Nevada was the most affected state in terms of private sector employment growth. Nevada s employment growth was the lowest in the nation in 2009 (- 10.1%) and 2010 (- 2.8%). In 2017, Nevada was the fastest growing private sector in the United States states with private sector employment growth less than Nevada Nevada Private Sector Job Growth Rankings :QII: Right ahead of the Silver State, in terms of growth, are Utah and Idaho YTD

18 Top Ten Projected Growth Occupations; Manufacturing Sector Top Projected Growth in Manufacturing Occupations Electrical & Electronic Equipment Assemblers First-Line Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers Hand Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers Mechanical Engineers Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, & Weighers Software Developers, Applications General & Operations Managers Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Mfg, Except Technical & Scientific Products Shipping, Receiving, & Traffic Clerks Electrical Engineers ,000 1,500 2,000

19 Mean Hourly Earnings for Top Ten Growing Occupations; Manufacturing Industry General & Operations Managers Electrical Engineers Software Developers, Applications Mechanical Engineers Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Except Technical & Scientific Products First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Nevada Statewide Average Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, & Weighers Shipping, Receiving, & Traffic Clerks Electrical, Electronic, & Electromechanical Assemblers, Except Coil Winders, Tapers, & Finishers Assemblers & Fabricators, All Other, Including Team Assemblers Hand Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers $- $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 hourly wage

20 Nevada Private Sector Business Establishment Openings Trending Up; Outpacing U.S. as a Whole U.S. 2018: IQ - 432,000 business establishment openings, up 13 % from the beginning of the recovery. Nevada 2018: IQ - 4,530 new business establishments, up approximately 44% from the beginning of Openings have exceeded 4,000 in each of the past eight quarters. 2011:IQ = Nevada Business Establishment Openings IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 18 Nevada U.S.

21 The Veteran Population in Nevada Has Grown Since 2007, While the National Veteran Population Has Decreased 270,000 Veteran Population and Employment Levels 25,000,000 23,000, % 18.0% National and Nevada Employment Rates Nevada veteran population 220, , ,000 70,000 '0 7 '0 8 '0 9 '1 0 '1 1 Nevada veterans population Nevada veterans labor force '1 2 '1 3 '1 4 '1 5 '1 6 '1 7 '1 8 Y T D Nevada veterans employed natioanl veterans population 21,000,000 19,000,000 17,000,000 15,000,000 13,000,000 11,000,000 9,000,000 7,000,000 5,000,000 national veteran population 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YT D Nevada veteran unemployment rate Nevada unemployment rate national veteran unemployment rate national unemployment rate

22 Full Time Employment in Nevada Trending Up, Part Time Employment Relatively Steady November 2018: Nevadans employed full-time totaled 1,144,620, up from 1,051,940 a year ago. 1,400,000 1,200,000 Nevada Full-time vs Part-time Employment November 2018: Parttime employment stands at 308,910, down from 321,000 last year. At the peak level, fulltime employment represented 81.9% of the total, and part-time 18.1%. employed; 12-month-moving average 1,000, , , ,000 Currently, 78.7% of total employment is full-time, while part-time positions account for 21.3%. 200,000 0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Recession full-time part-time '18 YTD

23 Nevadans Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons Trending Down; Still Above Historical Average 120,000 Nevada Part-time Worker for Economic Reasons employed part time for economic reasons; 12-month moving average 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Recession Working Part time for Economic Reasons

24 Unemployment Rates in All Age Groups are Returning to Historical Levels 25% Nevada Unemployment Rate by Age 20% National Unemployment Rate by Age unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 15% 10% 5% 0% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' cps total ur '18 YTD '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' cps total ur '18 YTD

25 Amount Compensated Continues to Decline Despite Rising Maximum Weekly Benefit Amount $120 UI Amount Compenstated vs Maximun Weekly Benefit Amount 500 $ $ $60 $ $ $0 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul Amount Compensated ($millions) Max Weekly Benefit

26 Share of Unemployed Receiving Regular Unemployment Benefits Remains Below Historical Levels

27 For Additional Information, Please Contact: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau David Schmidt Chief Economist Christopher Robison Supervising Economist (775) This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The U.S. Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

28 NEVADA Employment & Unemployment November 2018 Employment Growth M/M Y/Y Y/Y% Nevada % (Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada % (Non-Seasonally Adjusted) United States 155 2, % (Seasonally Adjusted) (Employment in thousands) Unemployment Rates: Nevada Statewide 4.4% (Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada Statewide 4.1% (Non-Seasonally Adjusted) United States 3.7% (Seasonally Adjusted) Employment estimates are produced by the Current Employment Statistics program. Labor Force estimates are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Research and Analysis Bureau, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation operates these programs in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone (775)

29 Nevada Labor Force Summary Statewide (Estimates In Thousands) Nov-18 Nov-17 CHANGE % CHANGE Oct-18 Seasonally Adjusted LABOR FORCE % EMPLOYMENT % UNEMPLOYMENT % 67.1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.4% 4.9% % Non-Seasonally Adjusted LABOR FORCE % EMPLOYMENT % UNEMPLOYMENT % 63.7 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1% 4.7% % UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BASED ON UNROUNDED DATA Employment adjusted by census relationships to reflect number of persons by place of residence. Information compiled by DETR's Research & Analysis Bureau

30 Seasonally Adjusted Establishment Based Industrial Employment Nevada Statewide Total All Industries (Estimates In Thousands) Nov-18 Nov-17 CHANGE % CHANGE Oct % Natural Resources & Mining % 14.5 Construction % 93.5 Manufacturing % 57.0 Durable Goods % 38.4 Non-durable Goods % 18.6 Trade, Transportation & Utilities % Wholesale % 35.2 Retail % Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities % 72.2 Information % 14.5 Financial Activities % 65.4 Real Estate & Rental Leasing % 29.7 Professional & Business Services % Professional, Scientific and Technical % 60.0 Management of Companies and Enterprises % 27.1 Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt % Education and Health Services % Educational Services % 15.2 Health Care and Social Assistance % Leisure and Hospitality % Arts, Entertainment and Recreation % 32.0 Accommodation and Food Service % Other Services % 43.6 Government % Federal % 19.1 State % 44.1 Local % 103.5

31 Total All Industries Goods Producing Non-Seasonally Adjusted Establishment Based Industrial Employment Nevada Statewide (Estimates In Thousands) Nov-18 Nov-17 CHANGE % CHANGE Oct % % Natural Resources & Mining % 14.5 Metal Ore Mining % 11.1 Construction % 95.8 Construction of Buildings % 17.2 Specialty Trade Contractors % 69.5 Manufacturing % 57.2 Durable Goods % 38.5 Miscellaneous durable goods % 7.0 Other Miscellaneous (Includes Slot Mfg.) % 6.4 Non-durable Goods % 18.7 Service Providing % Private Service Providing % Trade, Transportation & Utilities % Wholesale % 35.5 Retail % Food & Beverage Stores % 24.4 Health and Personal Care Stores % 9.6 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities % 72.4 Utilities % 4.0 Transportation & Warehousing % 68.4 Air Transportation % 7.3 Transit and Ground Passenger % 12.8 Taxi and Limousine Service % 8.2 Information % 14.5 Telecommunications % 3.9 Financial Activities % 65.7 Finance and Insurance % 35.7 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities % 19.7 Real Estate & Rental Leasing % 30.0 Professional & Business Services % Professional, Scientific and Technical % 60.3 Management of Companies % 27.2 Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt % Administrative & Support Services % Employment Services % 24.8 Education and Health Services % Educational Services % 15.5 Health Care and Social Assistance % Ambulatory Health Care Services % 58.3 Hospitals % 31.1 Leisure and Hospitality % Arts, Entertainment and Recreation % 31.7 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries % 24.6 Accommodation and Food Service % Accommodation % Casino Hotels and Gaming % Casino Hotels % Gaming Industries % 9.7 Food Services and Drinking Places % Full-Service Restaurants % 64.4 Limited-Service Restaurants % 54.6 Other Services % 44.0 Government % Federal % 19.2 State % 45.6 Local % 104.5

32 2018 Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Employment (Estimates In Thousands) Nevada Statewide JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC AVERAGE Total All Industries Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-durable Goods Trade, Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Real Estate & Rental Leasing Professional & Business Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt Education and Health Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Service Other Services Government Federal State Local Detail may not add due to rounding. This report reflects non-ag employment by place of work. It does not necessarily coincide with labor force concept. Includes multiple jobholders. Nov-18 Information compiled by DETR's Reseach & Analysis Bureau

33 2018 Non-Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Employment (Estimates In Thousands) Nevada Statewide JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC AVERAGE Total All Industries Goods Producing Natural Resources & Mining Metal Ore Mining Construction Construction of Buildings Specialty Trade Contractors Manufacturing Durable Goods Computer & Electronic Products Other Miscellaneous,Includes Slot Mfg Non-durable Goods Service Providing Private Service Providing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Retail Food & Beverage Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Utilities Transportation & Warehousing Air Transportation Transit and Ground Passenger Taxi and Limousine Service Information Telecommunications Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Credit Intermediation & Related Real Estate & Rental Leasing Professional & Business Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Management of Companies Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt Administrative & Support Services Employment Services Education and Health Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Service Accommodation Casino Hotels and Gaming Casino Hotels Gaming Industries Food Services and Drinking Places Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Restaurants Other Services Government Federal State Local Detail may not add due to rounding. This report reflects non-ag employment by place of work. It does not necessarily coincide with labor force concept. Includes multiple jobholders. Information compiled by DETR's Reseach & Analysis Bureau Nov-18