KENANGA INVESTMENT CORPORATION LTD

Transcription

1 Rate (%) Yield(%) KENANGA INVESTMENT CORPORATION LTD Rate(%) LKR/USD Rate(%) % Yield (%) Change(%) Sri Lankan Economic Update Weekly th Mar COUNTRY RATING: FITCH: BB-, S&P: B+, MOODY S: B Economic Indicators: LKR/USD. (-.% WOW) AWPR:.% (.8% WOW) AWDR:.9% (-.% MPM) ASPI:,8 (-.% WOW) S&P SL:,9 (-.88% WOW).%.%.%.%.% 9.% 9.% 8.% 8.%.%.%.%.% All Government Share Price Index Securities,. movement mths mths Yrs Yrs Yrs Yrs 8 Yrs Yrs Yrs Yrs -Mar 8-Mar -Mar Foreign holding on Government securities Feb -Feb -Mar -Mar 8-Mar Foreign Holding Foreign Holding as a % of Total Outstanding Market Period -Mar 8-Mar Change % Primary Market Secondary Market mths.%.9% -.8% mths.%.8% -.% Yrs.8%.99% -.% Yrs.%.8%.% Yrs 8.% 8.%.% Yrs 8.9% 8.9%.9% 8 Yrs 9.% 9.8% -.% Yrs 9.% 9.9% -.8% Yrs.%.%.% Yrs.%.9%.% Inflation Now Year ago 8 - Policy Rates Aug sep Oct Nov- Dec Jan Feb AWPR (Monthly) AWDR (Monthly) Rate Spread (AWPR-AWDR) Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR):.%. It has increased by.8% compared to last week. Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR):.9% (Feb),.9% (Jan). Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR):.9% (Feb) and.% (Jan). SLIBOR Rates :.% (Day),.9%(Days),.%(Month),.%(Months),.%(Months), 8.%(Yr) Inflation (YOY change):.% (Feb) and.% (Jan). 9 8 Sri Lanka Interbank Offer rates Day Days Mth Mths Mths Mths Year Change Mar- Year ago % -% -% -% -8% -% -% -% LKR EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT LKR depreciated over the week by.% against USD from LKR/USD. to.. One month forward rate of LKR/USD is.8 (Last week.9), three month forward rate is.8 (Last week.) -Feb -Feb -Feb -Mar -Mar INR..... INR..... RM Rm LKR/USD movement Vs US year Treasury bond Feb - Mar -Mar -Mar LKR/US$ () LKR/US$ () US Year bond Yield

2 ASPI movement LKR Bn Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Price Index:,8 points as at th March. S&P :,9 points as at th March. ASPI decreased WOW by 8 points which is.%. S&P declined WOW by points, reflecting a.88% negative variation. Net Foreign inflow: Rs. Mn.. Last week recorded a Net foreign outflow Rs. Mn.. Market capitalization: Rs.Bn.,9 which is.% decline compared to last week. Market PE: PE recorded as 8. in this week and it has decreased by.% from the last week.,9,,8,,, - Domestic turnover Vs Foreign Turnover -Feb -Mar -Mar -Mar -Mar Net Foreign Purchase/(Sales) Foreign Turnover Domestic Turnover Net foreign purchases and sales,.,,. 8,.,.,.,9.,8.,. -,. - -Feb -Mar -Mar -Mar -Mar Net Foreign Purchase/(Sales) ASPI LOCAL NEWS GLOBAL NEWS Preparation of the Gazette notifications on the Super Gains Tax and the Mansion Tax proposed by the new government through its interim budget are reportedly in their final stages and are to be released shortly. Very reliable sources reveal that though work on the preparation of the bill and Gazette notification on the Super Gains Tax have been almost completed, the bill and Gazette notification on the Mansion Tax have not been finalized since there are certain issues to be resolved. Strong opposition has already arisen from the business community against the Super Gains Tax imposed on companies through the new government s interim budget. (Source: Derana-..) The University Grants Commission has recognized the Associateship of the Chartered Insurance Institute (ACII) qualification offered by the Chartered Insurance Institute, CII UK as a qualification equivalent to a degree for the purpose of entry to a postgraduate course in Sri Lanka. With this recognition, insurance professionals would now be able to pursue further academic qualifications. It will also strengthen the longstanding relationship Sri Lanka have with the Chartered Insurance Institute UK. The Chartered Insurance status which is the highest recognized status in the insurance industry worldwide is offered by the Chartered Insurance Institute UK, incorporated under a Royal charter and celebrated its years in. (Source: Daily Ft-..) Actively traded two-week rupee forwards ended at./ per dollar compared to Tuesday s close of./8. Dollar selling pressure is there as the seasonal remittances are picking up slowly. Sri Lanka sees a rise in inward remittances ahead of the Sinhala-Tamil New Year on April as expatriates send money for their relatives in the country. Dealers expect the seasonal inward remittances to continue till the first week of April. Dealers also expect the central bank to defend the currency from a sharp appreciation. (Source: Daily Ft-..) China's cross-border capital net inflows rose 8 percent year on year to a total of. billion U.S. dollars in the first two months this year. The surge reversed the capital net outflows which occurred between August and December last year. The foreign exchange settlement and sale of foreigncapital banks logged a total deficit of more than. billion U.S. dollars in the first two months. The deficit to increasing holdings of U.S. dollardenominated assets among enterprises and individuals instead of capital outflows. Overall, there is no data available that supports predictions of an impending collapse of the Chinese economy or assertions of capital exodus. (Source: Xinhuanet.com (china) -..) Fewer people sought unemployment benefits last week in the United States, evidence that strong hiring should continue despite signs of slower economic growth at the start of. The Labor Department said on Thursday that weekly applications for jobless aid fell 9, to a seasonally adjusted 8,. The decrease suggests that a recent slowdown in manufacturing, housing starts and retail sales has not trickled into the job market, a possible indication that economic growth will rebound after a harsh winter. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, tumbled, to 9,. Over the last months, the average has fallen roughly percent (Source: Bloomberg-..) The Financial Stability Board coordinates financial regulation for the Group of economies (G) and has been introducing tougher rules for banks and markets to plug gaps highlighted by the -9 financial crisis. The financial system was now safer, simpler and fairer but there were concerns about liquidity, or the ability of investors to sell holdings smoothly, in bond markets. Market adjustments to date have occurred without significant stress. However the risk of a sharp and disorderly reversal remains given the compressed credit and liquidity risk premium. As a result, market participants need to be mindful of the risks of diminished market liquidity, asset price discontinuities and contagion across asset markets. (Source: Reuters-..)

3 LKR.Mn USD Mn Rs.Bn Tourist Arrivals GDP and Economy The GDP of the third quarter of depicts a steady growth of.% when compared with the second quarter. The Service sector contribution was higher than the other two sectors which is.9%. The agriculture sector, industry sector and Service sector GDP recorded in Q were Rs. Mn 9,, Rs. Mn 8, and Rs.Mn., respectively. Unemployment rate is.% in second quarter which is a.% increment from the last year second quarter. SRI LANKA FISCAL PERFORMANCE GDP Growth 9, 9% 8, 8%,, %, %, %, %,, % % 8 9 GDP (LKR Bn) GDP Growth Tourism Tourist Arrivals Earnings from Tourism ( Rs Bn),8,,,,,,,,, 8,,,, According to the quarterly financial economic indicators, the Total Outstanding Government debt was increased by Rs.. Billion to Rs. 8.9 Billion in. The domestic debt was increased by Rs.. billion in whereby the majority of the domestic debts were comprised by Treasury bonds. The Foreign debts increased by Rs.. Billion mainly due to the issuance of International Sovereign Bond in US Dollars. The Government revenue increased by.% in the first nine months of, due to the tax revenue collected. The budget deficit was narrowed by Rs.Bn. in first nine months of compared to. GOVERNMENT DEBT/GDP (%) DOMESTIC DEBT/ GDP (%).9.. FOREIGN DEBT % OF GDP... BUDGET DEFICIT/GDP (%) SRI LANKA EXTERNAL SECTOR SRI LANKA DEBT Q Q Q,,, 8, Total Domestic Debt (Rs.Mn) Total Foreign Debt (Rs.Mn) Government budget performance ( Jan- June) ( Jan- June) ( Jan-Sep) ( Jan- Sep) Revenue and Grants Budget Deficit ( Rs.Bn) Total Expenditure 8 Workers remittance Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan( ),,,,,,,,,,, -, -,, -,, Trade performance Q Q Q Q Q Q Exports (Rs. Mn) Trade Balance (Rs. Mn) Imports (Rs. Mn),.,.. Foreign Currency reserves VS Total reserves Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Foreign Currency Reserves (USD Mn) Official Reserve Asset (USD Mn) DISCLAIMER:This document is a Research Report available to clients of Kenanga Investment Corp Ltd., The information contained in the document has been compiled from sources that we believe to be reliable: however we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute of our judgment on the data available to us as at this date and as such are liable to change. Information contained in this document is not and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any commodity or security or other financial instruments. Kenanga Investment Corporation Ltd, or its affiliates and/ or its directors, officers and employees shall not be in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the content of this document.

4 DE CAPITAL MARKET ACTIVITIES IPO Equity and Debt Private Placements Rights Issues Mergers and Acquisitions Corporate Syndicated Loan Facilities PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Listed Equity Fixed Income Securities Kenanga Retirement Plan (KRP) OUR SERVICES. CAPITAL MARKET ACTIVITIES. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. CORPORATE RESTRUCTURING Kenanga Investment Corporation Ltd (KICL) was established in Sri Lanka in and specializes in capital markets activities with core strengths in investment banking and fund management. KICL is the overseas investment arm of Malaysian listed company K & N Kenanga Holdings Berhad (KNKH), a long established financial group in Malaysia with years of collective experience in equity broking, CORPORATE RESTRUCTURING Balance Sheet Restructuring Corporate Restructuring KENANGA INVESTMENT CORPORATION LTD th Floor Landmark Building, No 8, Galle Road, Colombo Web: info@kenangasl.com Tel: 8 Fax: 8 KENANGA INVESTMENT FOR ALL

5