US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence
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1 US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence tember, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1 Consumer Optimism Consumer Confidence 3- Consumer Confidence & Unemployment -7 Consumer Confidence & Employment 8-1 Consumer Sentiment 11 Consumer Confidence By Region 1-1 Consumer Optimism Index Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 1 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 17- tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
3 Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1 Figure CONSUMER SURVEYS Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) CURRENT CONDITIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) EXPECTATIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
4 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Consumer Optimism CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTATIONS * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 3 Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
5 Consumer Confidence 1 Figure 3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) Total (119.8) Source: The Conference Board. 1 Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) Component (1.1) 1 1 Component (1.) Source: The Conference Board. Page 3 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
6 1 1 Figure. Consumer Confidence CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (198=, sa) Under 3 Years Old (1.9) 3 to Years Old (18.) Years & Over (11.7) Source: The Conference Board. 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Total (17.) Present (13.) (9.8) * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
7 7 3 3 Figure 7. Consumer Confidence CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABLITY (percent saying so) Jobs Plentiful* (3.) Jobs Hard To Get* (18.1) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. 7 Figure 8. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY Jobs Plentiful Minus Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) (1.) 17 Index (1.1) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Source: The Conference Board. Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
8 Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 1 Figure 9. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY 7 1 Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) Unemployment Rate (percent) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure 1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE (sa) Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) 3 1 U- Unemployment Rate* (percent) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus all attached workers. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
9 Figure 11. Consumer Confidence & Unemployment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (sa) Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, -week ma) 7 3 Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) 9/ Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (sa) Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, -week ma) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page 7 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
10 1 Figure 1. Consumer Confidence & Employment EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISM Consumer Optimism Index* Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor Page 8 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
11 3 3 Figure 13. Consumer Confidence & Employment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS (sa) Percent Expecting More Jobs Months From Now Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs Months From Now Source: The Conference Board Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS (sa) Percent Expecting More Jobs Minus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs Consumer Confidence Index Source: The Conference Board Page 9 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
12 9 Figure. Consumer Confidence & Employment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS (sa) Business Conditions Months Ahead Better Worsen Same Source: Conference Board. 1 1 Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: HOME 1 1 Plans to Buy Within Months: Home (% of respondents, sa) Source: Conference Board. Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
13 13 1 Figure 17. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-19=, nsa) Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Index (9.3) (113.9) (83.) Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center Figure 18. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-19=, nsa) Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page 11 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
14 Consumer Confidence By Region Figure 19. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) New England* 1 New England* Middle Atlantic* Middle Atlantic* South Atlantic* South Atlantic* * New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida). Source: The Conference Board. 7 Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
15 Consumer Confidence By Region Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) East North Central* East North Central* East South Central* East South Central* West North Central* West North Central* * East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi); West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board Page 13 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
16 Consumer Confidence By Region Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) West South Central* West South Central* Mountain* Mountain* Pacific* Pacific* * West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii). Source: The Conference Board. Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
17 17 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Consumer Optimism Index Total * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Figure 3. NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) NFIB: Firms with One or More Job Openings (1-month average, percent) (3.7) Jobs Plentiful (percent saying so) (3.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business. 1 Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
18 3 3 1 Figure. Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (yearly percent change) Jobs Plentiful* (percent saying so) Q * Every other month from 197 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July Seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board. Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
19 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Jul Consumer Optimism Index (17.) - Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Sentiment Index (19=) (9.3) Jul Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index (198=) (119.8) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jul Page 17 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
20 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Jul Consumer Optimism Index: Present Situation (13.) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Sentiment Index: (19=) (113.9) Jul Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index: (198=) (1.1) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jul Page 18 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
21 1 1 1 Figure 7. Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Optimism Index: (9.8) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) Jul CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Sentiment Index: (19=) (83.) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index: (198=) (1.) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jul Jul Page 19 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
22 Figure 8. Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Present Situation Component (198=, sa) (1.1) - Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) (1.) Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - Figure 9. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT Present Situation Component (198=, sa) (1.1) - Household Employment (yearly percent change) (1.) Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.
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