Area profile for Caithness and

Transcription

1 Area profile for Caithness and Sutherland January 2011 Highlights In 2009, the population of Caithness and Sutherland was 38,113, which is a decrease of 0.8% since This compares to a 3.1% increase overall in the Highlands and Islands and a 2.5% increase in Scotland. Unemployment rates in Caithness and Sutherland are higher than in the Highlands and Islands 1. On the whole, the recessionary impact in the area appears to be similar to that in the Highlands and Islands, which is not as pronounced as in Scotland. However, within the area, the Wick Travel to Work Area (TTWA) appears to be the most affected, while Thurso has been less affected. The female dominated sector of public administration, education and health is the largest employment sector, accounting for a third of jobs in The energy, water and manufacturing and banking, finance and insurance sectors account for a higher proportion of employees than in the Highlands and Islands. Many of the jobs in these two sectors are directly or indirectly related to the decommissioning activity at the Dounreay civil nuclear site. Business start-ups in Caithness and Sutherland are higher than average. There were 4.6 new start-ups per 1,000 of the population in 2008 compared to 4.0 in the Highlands and Islands. In 2007/08, educational attainment levels were higher in Caithness and Sutherland than in Scotland by the end of S4, but lower than average by the end of S6, while a high rate of school leavers went straight into employment compared with Scotland, and a low proportion into Higher Education. House prices have been rising in the area in recent years, but at about half the rate, experienced in the Highlands and Islands. The median house price in Caithness and Sutherland in 2008 was 81,500 compared to 117,750 in the Highlands and Islands and 114,500 in Scotland. 1 Please refer to the Unemployment Digest prepared by the Planning and Economics team on a monthly basis for the latest unemployment data at: Population: 38,113 Area: 770,000 hectares Main sectors of employment: engineering, energy, tourism, business services Ackergill Tower by Wick

2 Introduction This Area Profile for Caithness and Sutherland provides recently available data from the most reliable sources on: Population structure Population change Migration Unemployment Economic activity Incomes Gross Value Added (GVA) Employment by sector Company size Business starts Educational attainment Destinations of school leavers House prices Quality of life indicators Comparisons are made with the Highlands and Islands as a whole and Scotland. Population Table 1 shows the change in the resident population of Caithness and Sutherland compared to the Highlands and Islands and Scotland from 2001 to Table 1: Resident Population: Change ( ) % Change ( ) Caithness 25,552 25, Sutherland 12,874 12, Caithness & Sutherland 38,426 38, Highlands & Islands 433, ,043 13, Scotland 5,064,200 5,190, , Source: GROS Mid-Year Estimates Between 2001 and 2009, the population of Caithness and Sutherland declined by 0.8%, which contrasted with the population growth experienced in the Highlands and Islands (+3.1%) and Scotland (+2.5%). Within the area, the population of Sutherland rose slightly over the period (0.3%), while the population of Caithness decreased by 1.4%. Approximately 43% of the area s population is concentrated in the two settlements of Thurso and Wick. Between 2001 and 2009, the population of Wick fell by 5.9% while Thurso declined by 2.4%. The decrease in population in these two settlements is partly associated with the long-term decommissioning of the Dounreay facility. 2

3 Age Structure Table 2 shows the changing age structure of Caithness and Sutherland (C&S) compared to the Highlands and Islands (H&I) and Scotland from 2001 to Table 2: Distribution of Population by Age: (% of total population) Age Group C&S C&S H&I Scotland Mid 2001 Mid 2008 Mid 2008 Mid Source: GROS Mid-Year Estimates Figures show a tendency towards an ageing population and a resulting challenge for the area. This may prove particularly challenging in more rural areas because dispersed settlement patterns and low population densities make the delivery of services more difficult. The main difference from Scotland is the relatively low proportion of people aged Parts of the area are attractive for retirement, but many young people leave to seek out Higher Education and employment opportunities elsewhere. Migrant Workers Table 3 shows the number of applications for National Insurance (NI) numbers that were made by migrants in Highland, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland from the financial year 2002/03 to 2008/09. The figures for the Highlands and Islands are for the area s six main local authorities. Figures are not available below the Highland local authority level. Table 3: Applications for NI numbers Total NI registrations Registrations per 10,000 economically active Highland 12,960 1,177.1 Highlands & Islands 20, Scotland 246, Source: Department for Work and Pensions The 12,960 registrations in Highland demonstrate that migrant workers have been important in supplementing the area s labour force. Registrations as a proportion of the economically active population in Highland were 24% greater than the Highlands and Islands average and 22% above the Scottish average. As shown in Table 4, people from the EU Accession States have constituted the majority (66%) of migrant worker registrations in Highland since

4 Table 4: Applications for NI numbers by World region (January March 2009) Highland Total EU (%) EU Accessio n States (%) World Area of Origin Asia Other and Africa Europea Middle (%) n (%) East (%) The Americas (%) Australasi a and Oceania (%) 13, , H&I Scotland 249, Source: Department for Work and Pensions Unemployment Figure 1 shows the unemployment rates for Caithness and Sutherland, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland from December 2006 to December The rates are based on the Claimant Count, which is a measure of people who are claiming Jobseekers Allowance. Figure 1: Unemployment Rates: Caithness Sutherland Caithness and Sutherland Highlands and Islands Scotland Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Source: NOMIS In December 2009, the unemployment rate in Caithness and Sutherland was 3.8%, compared with a rate of 2.9% for the Highlands and Islands and 4.1% for Scotland and Great Britain. The area s unemployment rate has been consistently above that of the Highlands and Islands; it was also above the rate for Scotland prior to the impact of the recession in

5 The unemployment rate for Caithness was 4.0% in December At 3.6% in December 2009, the rate in Sutherland was lower than the Caithness rate, but higher than the Highlands and Islands average. Unemployment in Sutherland is highly seasonal, reflecting the importance of tourism and primary sectors (fishing and agriculture) to the area during the summer months. Overall, the increase in unemployment in Caithness and Sutherland and Sutherland in particular since early 2009 that relates to the recession has been less steep than the increases in either Scotland or Great Britain. Unemployment by Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) Figure 2 shows the Claimant Count unemployment rates for the three Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) in Caithness and Sutherland compared to the Highlands and Islands average from December 2006 to December The concentration of people who both reside and work in a TTWA must equal a minimum of 75% of both the total of people who work there and the workers who live there. There are 3 TTWAs Sutherland, Thurso and Wick. Figure 2: Unemployment Rates by TTWA: Sutherland Thurso Wick Highlands and Islands Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Source: NOMIS At 4.9%, the unemployment rate in the Wick TTWA was higher than the Scottish average in December The area has consistently had high rates of unemployment and in December had the highest rate of unemployment of all TTWAs in the Highlands and Islands. In contrast, the unemployment rate in the neighbouring TTWA of Thurso was 3.2% in December Thurso has the lowest unemployment rate of the three TTWAs in Caithness and Sutherland, with the rate tending to follow the pattern for the Highlands and Islands. 5

6 The unemployment rate in the Sutherland TTWA in December 2009 was 3.5%. The recent strength of tourism is a principal factor in the low unemployment rate relative to Caithness and Sutherland as a whole. Due to the recession, more UK residents have taken holidays close to home in 2009, and sterling s exchange rate has been favourable to UK tourism. Unemployment by Gender Figure 3 illustrates the male and female unemployment trends for Caithness and Sutherland from December 2006 to December Figure 3: Male and Female Unemployment Rates: Male Total Female Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Source: NOMIS The male unemployment rate in Caithness and Sutherland in December 2009 stood at 5.2%, more than double the female rate (2.3%), with males not in employment who are interested in working more likely than females to be eligible for Jobseekers Allowance. At the Scottish level, unemployment rates were 6.0% for males and 2.1% for females. The gap between male and female unemployment rates in Caithness and Sutherland had narrowed in 2007 and 2008, but has widened considerably since early 2009, with the differential now the same as in August One reason for relatively high male unemployment rates in today s economy has been the increase in part-time working (often low paid jobs), which tend to be of more interest to females or young people still in education who would not qualify for unemployment benefit. 6

7 Economic Activity Rate Table 5 shows the economic activity rate for Caithness and Sutherland, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland between January and December These figures are based on the Annual Population Survey a residence based labour market survey. The percentages are of all people of working age, except the unemployment rate, which is a percentage of those economically active. Table 5: Economic Activity: January 2008-December 2008 (working age population) Caithness & Sutherland H&I Scotland number % % % Persons Economic activity rate 20, Employment rate 20, % who are employees 16, % who are self employed 3, Unemployment rate Males Economic activity rate 12, Employment rate 12, % who are employees 10, % who are self employed 2, Unemployment rate Females Economic activity rate 8, Employment rate 7, % who are employees 6, % who are self employed Unemployment rate Source: Annual Population Survey Economic activity and employment rates for males in Caithness and Sutherland are relatively high, while female economic activity and employment rates are relatively low. However, selfemployment rates for both males and females in Caithness and Sutherland were higher than the Scottish average. This reflects the dispersed nature of the settlements across the area (outwith the towns of Wick and Thurso), with small local businesses serving local economies, e.g. in building trades and retailing, together with small scale tourism provision. Also, crofting and fishing are important to many parts of the area sectors that tend to have a high rate of self-employment. Small sample sizes and rounding to the nearest hundred mean the comparisons from the Annual Population Survey given in Table 5 between Caithness and Sutherland and the larger areas of the Highlands and Islands and Scotland are not precise. Income Figures from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) estimate the median gross weekly wage for the Highlands and Islands to be 350 in This compares to the Scottish figure of 385. The data should be used with a degree of caution due to the low sample sizes for smaller geographies. 7

8 Table 6: Median Gross Weekly Earnings ( ): 2009 H&I Scotland H&I as a proportion of Scotland Median gross weekly pay % for all employee jobs Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (work place based) No accurate data is available for income at the Caithness and Sutherland geography, however, given what is known about the local economy inferences can be made about the probable nature of income. In Caithness and Sutherland, earnings are likely to be below the Scottish and Highlands and Islands levels due to its high share of employment (in particular self-employment) in relatively low paying sectors such as tourism and the primary sectors. However, there are some large employers in parts of Caithness and Sutherland who pay more than average Highlands and Islands rates. Gross Value Added (GVA) Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the income generated by a sector from the production of goods and services after the deduction of costs incurred in the production process (excluding wages and capital investment costs). Table 7 shows the GVA per full-time equivalent employee (FTE) for the Highland Council area, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland in The Highlands and Islands figures are weighted averages of the GVAs per sector for the six local authority areas that broadly comprise the region. Table 7: GVA per FTE ( ): 2007 Manufacturing Construction Services Highland 61,512 29,819 22,169 H&I 63,173 38,000 26,685 Scotland 62,030 47,762 35,582 Source: Scottish Executive, Scottish Annual Business Statistics, 2007 (adjusted from all employees to FTE employees) Highland had low levels of GVA per full-time equivalent employee across all three sectors compared with Highlands and Islands and Scotland in The figures should be treated as indicative as there is likely to be quite a high margin for error in GVA statistics as suggested by large year-to-year fluctuations. Employment Employment by Sector Figure 4 illustrates the distribution of employment by sector in Caithness and Sutherland and the Highlands and Islands in The figures are based on the SIC 2003 and provide a broad picture of industry categories in the area. 8

9 Figure 4: Employment by Sector: Caithness & Sutherland Highlands & Islands % of Employees Energy, water and manufacturing Agriculture and fishing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance, etc Public administration,education & health Other services Source: Annual Business Inquiry (NOMIS) Note: These figures exclude the self-employed. Actual employment will be higher, particularly in primary industries and tourism. The public administration, education and health sector is the most significant employer in Caithness and Sutherland, accounting for 30.2% of employees. This is followed by the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector, which employs 24.1% of all employees in the area. However, both of these sectors employ a lower proportion of employees in Caithness and Sutherland than in the Highlands and Islands as a whole. The energy, water and manufacturing sector employs a relatively greater proportion of employees in Caithness and Sutherland (13.7% compared with 9.7% in the Highlands and Islands). Many of the jobs in this sector are indirectly related to decommissioning activity at Dounreay. Although Caithness and Sutherland has a low proportion of employment in financial and business services (15.9%) relative to Scotland (19.1%), it is higher than that of the Highlands and Islands (11.8%). The structure of employment in Caithness and Sutherland will change in the longer term as Dounreay is decommissioned, and emerging industries, most notably wave and tidal energy developments in the Pentland Firth as well as tourism and financial and business services become increasingly important. Employment by Gender Figure 5 shows the percentage of male and female employees by sector in Caithness and Sutherland in

10 Figure 5: Employment by Gender and Sector: 2008 % of employees Agriculture & Fishing and Energy & Water Male Female Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance, etc Public administration,education & health Other services Source: Annual Business Inquiry (NOMIS) Note: These figures exclude the self-employed. Actual employment is likely to be higher, particularly in primary industries and tourism. In Caithness and Sutherland, the public administration, education and health sector accounted for the greatest proportion of female employees (44.9%). The distribution, hotels and restaurants sector was also a significant employer for both male and female workers (excluding the self-employed), employing 26.4% of females and 21.7% of all male employees. Manufacturing and the banking, insurance and finance sectors were also important for male employment, with 19.6% and 18.5% respectively. Employment by Company Size Figure 6 shows employment by company size in Caithness and Sutherland compared to the Highlands and Islands in

11 Figure 6: Employment by Sizeband: 2008 Source: Annual Business Inquiry (NOMIS) Although their sizeband structures are broadly similar, the average size of enterprise in Caithness and Sutherland is slightly smaller than in the Highlands and Islands, which itself has a relatively large number of small firms compared with Scotland. In Caithness and Sutherland, some 29% of employees worked for businesses that employed 10 or fewer people in 2008 compared with 27% in the Highlands and Islands. Business Starts Table 8 shows the number and rate of new business start-ups per 1,000 population in Caithness and Sutherland, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland in Table 8: New Business Start-ups by Area: 2008 Area Start-ups Start-ups per 1,000 population Caithness & Sutherland Highlands & Islands 1, Scotland 20, Source: Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers Note: population base is taken from the 2007 Mid Year Estimates (GROS) Caithness and Sutherland had an above average business start-up rate (4.6 per 1,000 population compared with 3.9 for Scotland) in 2008, which could reflect the changing structure of the economy. In the first three quarters of 2009, there were 17.4% fewer business start-ups in Scotland than its 2008 quarterly average and 14.7% fewer start-ups at the Highlands and Islands level. The start-up rate in the Scottish Parliamentary constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross fell at a considerably greater rate (-22.9%), although this represents a decline of just 16 new starts per quarter in absolute terms. Figures for Caithness and Sutherland are no longer available. 11

12 Educational Attainment Tables 9 and 10 show SQA attainment in secondary schools at the end of S4 and S6, in the 2007/08 school year. Table 9: % S4 roll gaining 5+ awards at Standard Grade 1-2 by the end of S4 2007/08 Caithness 33 Sutherland 46 Caithness & Sutherland 36 Highlands & Islands 38 Scotland 34 Source: Scottish Government Table 10: % S4 roll gaining 3+ awards at Higher Grade A-C by the end of S6 2007/08 Caithness 26 Sutherland 30 Caithness & Sutherland 27 Highlands & Islands 33 Scotland 30 Source: Scottish Government Attainment in Caithness and Sutherland schools in 2007/08 was higher than in Scotland at Standard Grade, but at Higher Grade, it was lower than the Scottish average. Within the area, Sutherland schools had relatively high attainment rates (especially at Standard Grade), and Caithness schools relatively low attainment rates. A relatively high proportion of Highland pupils stay on to 5 th year (72% in 2007/08 compared with 65% in Scotland) and to 6 th year (50% compared with 45%). School Leavers Table 11 shows the destinations of school leavers from Caithness and Sutherland, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland in 2007/08. Table 11: School Leaver Destinations (%): 2007/08 Caithness Sutherland Caithness & Sutherland Highlands & Islands Scotland Total Number of Leavers ,762 58,791 Higher Education 24% 26% 24% 30% 31% Further Education 26% 24% 25% 21% 25% Training 0% 1% 0% 2% 5% Employment or Voluntary 32% 38% 34% 36% 25% Unemployed Seeking Work 13% 8% 12% 8% 11% Unemployed Not Seeking Work 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% Unknown 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% Source: Scottish Government 12

13 The proportion of pupils going into Higher Education in Caithness and Sutherland (24%) is considerably lower than both the Highlands and Islands and Scottish averages (30% and 31% respectively), while the percentage going into Further Education was the same as Scotland. It is also evident that a high proportion of school leavers enter employment, particularly in Sutherland (38%). At 12%, the proportion of school leavers going straight into unemployment (but seeking work) was above average. House Prices Table 12 shows the median price of house sales and the percentage change between 2005 and 2008 for Caithness and Sutherland, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland. Table 12: Median House Prices ( ): Change ( ) % Change ( ) Caithness & Sutherland 69,250 75,000 86,000 81,500 12, Highlands & Islands 87,250 96, , ,750 30, Scotland 87, , , ,500 27, Source: Scottish Government Communities Analytical Services Division House prices in Caithness and Sutherland are significantly lower than in the Highlands and Islands and Scotland. Between 2005 and 2008, the increase in house prices in Caithness and Sutherland (+17.7%) was lower than in Scotland (+31.6%), the rate of increase in the area over the period was approximately half of that recorded for the Highlands and Islands. Housing affordability tends to be less of an issue in Caithness than in other parts of the Highland Council area (although it is likely to be of concern in parts of Sutherland, where there are high rates of second and holiday home ownership). Quality of Life Table 13 compares Caithness and Sutherland or Highland to the Highlands and Islands and Scotland on selected quality of life indicators. 13

14 Table 13: Quality of Life % of population rating local authority area as a very good place to live (Highland) % of population perceiving vandalism/graffiti/damage to property as a problem (Highland) Crime rate per 10,000 population (Highland) % of population living in most deprived 20% of data zones in Scotland (C&S) Pupils per primary class (Highland) Source Scottish Household Survey (2005/06) Scottish Household Survey (2005/06) Scottish Government (2007/08) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (2006) Scottish Government C&S/Highlan d H&I Scotland In common with the Highlands and Islands as a whole, Highland Local Authority area residents generally enjoy a high quality of life, with relatively little deprivation although there are deprived neighbourhoods in some of the main towns, including Wick. Summary The population of Caithness has declined slightly in recent years with the main towns of Thurso and Wick accounting for the bulk of the reduction. The population of Sutherland have remained relatively steady since Unemployment rates in the area as a whole have been higher than the average for the Highlands and Islands, with the rate of unemployment in the Wick TTWA particularly high. The main sector of employment is public administration, education and health, in which female employees significantly outnumber males. The energy, water and manufacturing and banking, finance and insurance sectors are large relative to the Highlands and Islands, and are influenced by direct and indirect employment associated with Dounreay. Business start-ups are higher than average and a high proportion of school leavers go straight into employment compared with Scotland. Secondary school attainment and progression into Higher Education are relatively low in Caithness. House prices in the area are lower than average and have been increasing at about half the Highlands and Islands rate. Contact Information If you have any queries about the information contained in this document, or any other economic issues, please contact the HIE: Heather Smith Research Assistant heather.smith@hient.co.uk Tel: (01463) Kateryna McKinnon Economist kateryna.mckinnon@hient.co.uk Tel: (01463) Claire McDonald Senior Economist claire.mcdonald@hient.co.uk Tel: (01463)