Metropolitan s Water Supply Allocation Plan (WSAP)

Transcription

1 Exhibit A EASTERN MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT Metropolitan s Water Supply Allocation Plan (WSAP) Elizabeth Lovsted Senior Civil Engineer October 22,

2 Review of Current WSAP Policy 2

3 Principles for Allocation Metropolitan Water Surplus and Drought Management (WSDM) Plan: Metropolitan will encourage storage of water during periods of surplus and work jointly with its Member Agencies to minimize the impact of water shortages on the region s retail consumers and economy during periods of shortage 3

4 Shortage Allocation Balance Needs based approach Takes into account: o The impact on retail customers and the economy o Population and growth o Changes and/or loss of local supply o Reclamation and recycling o Conservation o Investment in local resources 4

5 WSAP Development and History Eight month collaborative process beginning in July 2007 Level 2 implemented July 1, Month Review Process 2010 o Board adopted recommendations in August 2010 Level 2 implemented July 1, Year Review Process 2011 o Board adopted recommendations in September

6 Overview of Current WSAP 6

7 Estimating Member Agency Needs (Baseline) Current Base Period o 10 years of adjustments o Does not accurately reflect Metropolitan demand o 2012/ /14 FY Proposed Base Period Retail Demand Allocation Year Retail Demand Allocation Year Wholesale Demand Allocation Year Local Supply Allocated 7

8 Three Steps for Allocation Wholesale Minimum Allocation o Ensures a minimum level of Metropolitan water to each member agency Retail Impact Adjustment Allocation o Ensures that agencies with high level of dependence on Metropolitan do no face disparate shortages Credits and adjustments 8

9 WSAP Calculation Factors 9

10 Wholesale Minimum Allocation Allocation Year Wholesale Demand Allocation Year Local Supply Wholesale Minimum Percentage Wholesale Minimum Allocation Allocation Year Local Supply 10

11 Retail Impact Adjustment Factor 11

12 Retail Impact Adjustment Allocation Determine % reliance on Metropolitan Allocation Year Wholesale Demand Allocation Year Local Supply Maximum Retail Impact Adjustment Percentage Retail Impact Adjustment Allocation Wholesale Minimum Allocation Allocation Year Local Supply 12

13 Current Credits and Adjustments Conservation Demand Hardening Credit Qualifying Conservation Rate Structure Minimum Per-Capita Water Use Credit o 100 GPCD total water use o 55 GPCD residential water use Extraordinary Supplies Penalty Adjustments o Qualifying Income-Based Rates o Baseline inflation adjustment o Growth rate ETo adjustment Proposing new methodology 13

14 Conservation Demand Harding Credit Current method is mainly device based A small credit is added for conserving rate structures Proposed option is GPCD based with higher credit Retail Impact Adjustment Allocation Wholesale Minimum Allocation Allocation Year Local Supply Conservation Demand Hardening Credit 14

15 Total WSAP Allocation Retail Shortage Wholesale Minimum Allocation Allocation Year Local Supply WSAP Allocation Allocation Year Local Supply Allocation Year Retail Demand 15

16 Extraordinary Supply Extraordinary Supply WSAP Allocation Allocation Year Retail Demand Allocation Year Local Supply 16

17 Current WSAP Enforcement Penalty Rates 17

18 Potential Issues Regarding Current Plan Current drought situation may require implementation of WSAP which raised the question: Is the current plan still adequate? o Baseline/Base Period is outdated o 20 by 2020 goal should be part of baseline o Demand hardening not adequately accounted for o Local supply development is penalized o Not enough credit for drought-year supplies o Penalties are too high o Penalties are too low o Penalty Rates are not compliant with Prop. 218/

19 Reviewing and Updating the WSAP 19

20 Three Areas for Discussion (cont.) Baseline o Determines retail demands and Metropolitan needs o This is what cuts are taken from in an allocation Allocation Formula o Determines how much Metropolitan needs to deliver o Incorporates various elements (Metropolitan dependence, demand hardening, GPCD floor, credits) Allocation Enforcement o Determines how to ensure agencies don t exceed their allocation o Currently a Penalty Rate disincentive 20

21 Proposed Demand Hardening Credit Allocation Year Demand Hardening o Current calculation method: 23,000 AF o Proposed GPCD calculation credit: 35,000 AF Calculating Conservation Hardening Factor o Current calculation method (Level 4): 13% o Proposed calculation method (Level 4): Maximum retail shortage x(1+ % GPCD reduction) 20%x(1+19%) = 24% Demand Hardening Adjustment (Level 4) o Current formula: 3,000 AF o Proposed formula: 8,400 AF 21

22 2015 Water Supply Scenarios 22

23 Metropolitan Storage Reserves End of Year Balances* Emergency Storage Dry-Year Storage *Estimated actual storage balances, may be subject to change. Million Acre-Feet 23

24 Metropolitan Storage Reserves End of Year Balances* Emergency Storage Dry-Year Storage 4 Range of EOY Storage approaching 2008/09 levels Million Acre-Feet *Estimated actual storage balances, may be subject to change. 24

25 Above Normal State Water Project 3 Million Acre-Feet TAF for Storage SWP 1.4 CRA MAF 70% SWP 25

26 Normal State Water Project Million Acre-Feet A 50% SWP Allocation would balance supply and demand SWP 1.0 CRA MAF 50% SWP 26

27 2015 SWP Conditions for Balance Million Acre-Feet Lower then 40% SWP Allocation would need consideration of WSAP Storage 0.2 SWP 0.8 CRA MAF 40% SWP 27

28 Dry SWP Conditions Million Acre-Feet Additional Action Required SWP 0.4 CRA MAF Additional Storage Take, Transfers, Water Supply Allocation Storage % SWP 28

29 Looking Forward Initial SWP is expected to be low o Less than 10% expected o Initial Allocation is generally conservative Changing conditions will have a significant impact o Service Area Demands o Water Transfers and other programs o End-of-year storage levels 2015 Final SWP Allocation is key o Monitor developing conditions vs. 40% 29

30 Conclusion Local supply investment will help insulate against Metropolitan allocation Conservation will provide credit and increase Metropolitan allocation EMWD s Water Shortage Contingency Plan can address retail shortages through adjustments in customer allocations 30

31 EASTERN MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT Contact Information Elizabeth Lovsted Senior Civil Engineer (951) ext