Strengthening and Upgrading India-Nigeria Relations
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1 Strengthening and Upgrading India-Nigeria Relations A Presentation by Mahesh Sachdev, Ex-Indian High Commissioner to Nigeria at Vivekananda International Foundation New Delhi; June
2 NIGERIA
3 NIGERIA Geo-Political Profile and Historical Backdrop Africa s Most Populous Country: Demography Revival of Africa s Largest Economy 7 th Largest Oil Economy: Boon or Bane? Trade: Exports: $33.3 Bn; Imports: $36.4Bn Defence & Foreign Policies: Beyond ECOWAS Current Pre-Occupations: Economy & Security Future Challenges: Terror, National Cohesion, Economic Diversification & Rekindling Growth
4 Nigerian Politics: Backgrounder Multi-Ethnic Society Gaining Homogeneity Centrifugal and Centripetal Tendencies Armed Forces as A Receding Factor 18 Years of US-Model Democracy Various Factors in Politico-Economic Flux Govt. Focus: Fighting Terror, Promoting Socio-Economic Stability & Diversification Prognosis:From Vicious to Virtuous Cycle?
5 Nigeria-India : Past Interface Colonial and Commonwealth Legacy Early Post Independence History Striking Socio-Economic Similarities Leveraging Complimentarities Search for Economic Paradigms Institutions: Growing Mutual Relevance Surge in People-to-People Ties Cultural Synergy
6 Current Bilateral Economic Trends (for ) Total Trade: $9,431 Mn 22.5%; Nigeria s Largest Partner, Our largest Partner in Africa (1/8 th of India-Africa Trade; India s 21 st Largest Trading Partner Globally.) N2I: $7, Mn 23.0%; 97.4% Crude; ~10.6% of Our Global Crude Imports; 22% of Nigerian Exports I2N: $1, Mn 1.3%: Our 2 nd Market in Africa; Major Items: Pharma, Machinery, Vehicles, Rice, Plastics, Misc Textile Items, Electronics & Metals India s Investments in Nigeria: ~$9 Bn (Main Sectors: Telecom, Metals, Power, Training, Retail, Health) Indian Presence: ~35K NRIs, 100+ Cos, Professionals P2P: ~39K Nigerian Visitors (18K Medical Tourists).
7 India Nigeria: A Comparison Criterion India Nigeria Population/Rank/Growth 1.28 Bn/ 2 nd / 1.19% 186 Mn/ 8 th / 2.44% Median Age/Life Exp./ IMR/ Fertility/ HIV 27.6/ 68.5 Years 40.5/ 2.3/ 0.3% 18.3/53.4Years 71.2/ 5.1/ 3.2% Area 3.29 Mn Sq Km Mn Sq Km GDP ($mn) Nom/ PPP 2251/ / 1089 GDP growth % (-)1.7% GDP Composition P/S/T 16.5/29.8/ /19.4/59.5 GDP/Capita PPP Below Poverty Line 29.8% $6700/- $5900/- 70% KWh/Capita/annum Mkt Cap/GDP 64% 52% Days to Start Business 33 34
8 India & Nigeria: A SWOT Analysis Similarities Colonial History Developing Societies Modernity with Traditions Regional Profiles Divergences Domestic Polity Socio-Economy Institutional Deficit Global Reform Issues Respective Self Images Complementarities Eco-Political Modeling Relevant Technology Oil Economy Global Economic Issues Challenges Managing Expectations Changing Status Quo Selling India to Nigerians Selling Nigeria to Indians Selling India to PIOs
9 India-Nigeria: Desirable Agenda Political: Higher & More Substantive Ties Trade: New Drivers to Arrest the Decline Economic Ties: Untapped Potential Defence: Going beyond Training Hydrocarbons: beyond Spot Buying Connectivity: Banks, Airlines, Maritime P2P Contacts: Growth with Care Cultural Dimension: More Can be Done
10 India-Nigeria: Defence Dimension Nigerian Defence History & Profile Military & Domestic Politics Early Bilateral Contacts and Intimacy Recent Exchanges & MoU Focus on Training & Capacity Building Tackling Shared Threats: Terror & Piracy Procurement & Up-gradation Possibilities of Technology Transfer Mixed Signals, JDM & Other Issues Competition from Entrenched Players
11 India Nigeria: Future Hydrocarbons: Up- & Down-Stream Institution Building and Optimising Supporting HRD, Education, Health, etc Force-Multipliers and Facilitators Encouraging Private Stakeholders Straightening the Triangles Greater P2P and B2B Interactions Win-Win Sustainability
12 Why Nigeria Matters to Us? Hydrocarbons: Leveraging Complementarity Shared Threat of Fundamentalist Terrorism Large Market for Our Exports with Potential Profitable Investment Destination Common Legacy to Shared Destiny Global Impact of Nigerian Transformation: Energy, Terrorism, Piracy, Polio, Poverty, African Geo-Politics, Food Security, Governance, etc. Population (3 rd ); Economy (5 th ) Thank you! Comments and Suggestions are Welcome: amb.sachdev@eco-diplomacy.com
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