FRBSF Joint Board of Directors Meeting Economic Research Seminar Session April 11, U.S. Income Inequality in Perspective
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1 FRBSF Joint Board of Directors Meeting Economic Research Seminar Session April 11, 2012 U.S. Income Inequality in Perspective
2 The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States Bradley Heim School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University Prepared for Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2012 Conference of Twelfth District Directors The views expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
3 Source: DeBacker, Heim, Panousi, Vidangos Rising Inequality: Transitory or Permanent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns
4 Source: DeBacker, Heim, Panousi, Vidangos Rising Inequality: Transitory or Permanent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns
5 How Much Income Is Needed to be in Top Quantiles? (In 2005) Top 10% - $94,000
6 The Top 10% Income Share, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
7 How Much Income Is Needed to be in Top Quantiles? (In 2005) Top 10% - $94,000 Top 1% - $295,000
8 Decomposing the Top Decile US Income Share into 3 Groups, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
9 How Much Income Is Needed to be in Top Quantiles? (In 2005) Top 10% - $94,000 Top 1% - $295,000 Top 0.1% - $1.25 Million
10 Top 0.1% Income Share in the United States, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
11 The Top 0.1% Income Share and Its Composition, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
12 Top 0.1% Income Shares in the United States, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
13 Top 0.1% Income Share in the United Kingdom, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
14 Top 0.1% Income Shares in Canada, Source: Veall Top Income Shares in Canada: Updates and Extensions
15 Top 0.1% Income Share in France, Source: Piketty and Saez Income Inequality in the United States, , Table updated to 2008 at
16 Top Income Shares in Japan, Source: Moriguchi and Saez The Evolution of Income Concentration in Japan, : Evidence from Income Tax Statistics
17 Possible explanations for rising top income shares Changes in relative demand for labor Globalization Skill-biased technical change
18 Possible explanations for rising top income shares Taxes Incentive effects due to lowered top marginal rates Income shifting between corporate and personal income tax bases after TRA86
19 Marginal Tax Rate, Percent Figure 2 -- Top marginal income tax rate: United States, France, and Japan, U.S. France Japan Year Source: OECD (2009).
20 Top 0.1% Income Share, Percent Figure 1 -- Percentage of national income (excluding capital gains) received by top 0.1% of income earners: United States, France, and Japan, U.S. France Japan Year Source: Piketty and Saez (2003, updated in 2008 at < Moriguchi and Saez (2008); Piketty (2003); Landais (2008); and upublished tables provided to the authors by Camille Landais.
21 Possible explanations for rising top income shares Occupation related explanations Superstars Executive compensation Compensation of financial professionals Are there enough at top?
22
23 Percentage of primary taxpayers in top 1 percent of the distribution of income (excluding capital gains) that are in each occupation
24 Percentage of primary taxpayers in top 1 percent of the distribution of income (including capital gains) that are in each occupation
25 Percentage of primary taxpayers in top 0.1 percent of the distribution of income (excluding capital gains) that are in each occupation
26 Percentage of primary taxpayers in top 0.1 percent of the distribution of income (including capital gains) that are in each occupation
27
28
29
30
31 Implications Executive and financial compensation practices important causes Due to concentration of executives, managers, supervisors, and financial professionals in top quantiles Shifting between tax bases also likely to be important Due to larger and increasing share of exec/man/sup with closely held businesses Superstar theory plays a small role Arts/media/sports not a large fraction at top
32 Implications If caused by factors changing in same ways for everyone at the top (e.g. tax policy), different people must have responded in different ways Due to heterogeneity across professions and divergence within professions
33
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