How Can Knowledge Capital Become Better Accepted in Norway?
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1 How Can Knowledge Capital Become Better Accepted in Norway? Hans Henrik Ramm Petroleum Strategy Advisor Ramm Kommunikasjon Petroleum Technology at a Crossroads 26 January 2005
2 Knowledge Creates Value Technology export Much larger resources The Government's innovation plan the vision: Norway should be among the world's most innovative countries, where firms and ambitious and creative people should have good opportunities for developing profitable activities. In important sectors, Norway should be in the international front with regard to knowledge, technology and value creattion
3 Value Creation Capability = Capital Knowledge Capital = Intellectual Capital = IC = Intangible Assets Carried by humans: Human Capital Carried by firms, institutions, clusters: Organisational Capital Relational Capital Structural Capital
4 How is IC Created and Put to Use? R&D Risk assessment Organisation Early implementation Procurement strategy Acqusitions Leaders and followers Alignment to needs
5 A Lot is About Cooperation Pilots and first use Critical mass Taking the long term view Incentives R&D institutions and suppliers Commercial focus Authorities + oil companies + suppliers CLUSTER FUNCTIONS
6 The Micro View: * KNOWLEDGE COUNTS AGAINST BOTTOM LINE * COMPANIES ARE DIFFERENT * WE MUST COOPERATE AND COMPETE * FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS COUNT * WE MUST IMPROVE CONTINOUSLY How is this Matched by the Macro View?
7 Classic Theory: Knowlegde Emerges Uniformly Everywhere Firms' Efforts Make No Difference Norwegian R&D Makes No Difference Framework Conditions Make No Difference Stabilisation & Competition Policies Sufficient
8 GROWTH = CHANGE IN CAPITAL BASE + CHANGE IN LABOUR SUPPLY + CHANGE IN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY (TFP = UNIFORM KNOWLEDGE) Futile to encourage
9 WHAT HAPPENS IF WE INSERT THE MICRO VIEW INTO MACRO GROWTH THEORY?
10 GROWTH = CHANGE IN CAPITAL BASE + CHANGE IN LABOUR SUPPLY + CHANGE IN IC BASE (ACCUMULATED KNOWLEDGE CREATED BY PEOPLE, FIRMS, INSTITUTIONS AND CLUSTERS = TFP) Crucial that it is encouraged
11 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D Public Grants & Tax Treatment > R&D benefits all society > Externalities should be internalised
12 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive > People choose between spending time on leisure, work or education > Lifetime post-tax benefits influences choices > Tax about far more than redistribution
13 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive > Take a Look At Capital Value Theory >>>
14 Capital Value Theory Classic Version: * Knowledge is uniform and equally available to all * Capital markets are free and competitive * Capital flows to highest profits * If somebody make high profits, others will attack * Others buy same knowledge = same costs, same products * Profits will equalize to normal rate of return A COMPANY'S PROFIT = Normal returns on risk free finance capital + Risk premium + Extraordinary ( clean ) profits (monopoly rent, resource rent etc)
15 Capital Value Theory - Innovation Theory: * The best knowledge is company specific and hard to copy * Others will not find same knowledge available * Companies differ the best make better profits A COMPANY'S PROFIT = Normal returns on risk free finance capital + Risk premium + Knowledge rent + Extraordinary ( clean ) profits (monopoly rent, resource rent etc)
16 In the Petroleum Industry, There are Natural Resources As Well + Resource Rent Finance Rent Knowledge Rent
17 In the Petroleum Industry, There are Natural Resources As TAX 78% Well + Resource Rent Finance Rent Knowledge Rent
18 In the Petroleum Industry, There are Natural Resources As TAX 78% Well TAX 28% + Resource Rent Finance Rent Knowledge Rent
19 In the Petroleum Industry, There are Natural Resources As TAX 78% Well TAX 28% TAX??% + Resource Rent Finance Rent Knowledge Rent
20 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive > Special Tax (Petroleum, Hydropower, Fisheries?) intended to take resource rent and other clean profit is also applied for knowledge rent > New Capital Earnings Tax works same way for all firms, albeit only on receiver's hand
21 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent
22 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements > Knowledge intensive firms underevaluated > Spin doctors can exaggerate IC (Enron) > Stock market poorly informed, favors insiders
23 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements * Primary Risk Capital Tied to Home Market - Poor Norwegian Equity Capital Market is a Real Problem > Hard to assess real value of remote firms > Investors require higher risk payment or stay away
24 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements * Primary Risk Capital Tied to Home Market - Poor Norwegian Equity Capital Market is a Real Problem * Discount on Norwegian Shares Worse for Knowledge Intensive Firms - Tilted Playing Field for Mergers etc > Makes better sense for owners to sell than to buy or stay
25 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements * Primary Risk Capital Tied to Home Market - Poor Norwegian Equity Capital Market is a Real Problem * Discount on Norwegian Shares Worse for Knowledge Intensive Firms - Tilted Playing Field for Mergers etc * Insufficient focus on cluster effects > Government's innovation strategy > Oil companies and best practise
26 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements * Primary Risk Capital Tied to Home Market - Poor Norwegian Equity Capital Market is a Real Problem * Discount on Norwegian Shares Worse for Knowledge Intensive Firms - Tilted Playing Field for Mergers etc * Insufficient focus on cluster effects * Aspects of competition policy > Clusters must cooperate as well as compete
27 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements * Primary Risk Capital Tied to Home Market - Poor Norwegian Equity Capital Market is a Real Problem * Discount on Norwegian Shares Worse for Knowledge Intensive Firms - Tilted Playing Field for Mergers etc * Insufficient focus on cluster effects * Aspects of competition policy * Errors in Macro-Economic Planning > Technology shocks interpreted as business cycles
28 The Consequences Are Larger Than We Think: * R&D - Public Grants & Tax Treatment * Personal Taxation - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Company Tax - Progressive Tax is Disincentive * Petroleum Tax - Mixes Resource & Knowledge Rent * Accounting - IC Not Visible in Financial Statements * Primary Risk Capital Tied to Home Market - Poor Norwegian Equity Capital Market is a Real Problem * Discount on Norwegian Shares Worse for Knowledge Intensive Firms - Tilted Playing Field for Mergers etc * Insufficient focus on cluster effects * Aspects of competition policy * Errors in Macro-Economic Planning * Errors in Planning of Education Policy Etc Etc
29 Realising that knowledge is a kind of capital that exists in different kinds and various amounts is crucial to decide on many policy matters in Government as well as companies. IC is in many ways similar to financial capital, in many ways very different. It is vital to know much more about: * How knowledge creation is influenced by fiscal and other policies * How Human Capital is put to use in commercial entities * The functionalty of the Norwegian clusters * The impact of knowledge and technology on the macro economy *..and so on
30 There is a lot to overcome: (Dagens Næringsliv 21 January 2005, from annual seminar of social economists.)
31 But definitely also progress:
32 What must be dealt with: * Too many conflicting social paradigms cemented by media * Insufficient focus on value creation * Business community has abdicated in debate over fundamental economic and political paradigms * Society's intellectuals and opinion leaders must be mobilized * We need think-tanks and academic institutions focusing on micro/macro interface, knowledge economy and cluster issues This is important for authorities, and they are moving slowly, but need supporting momentum. Who is closest to do it? Of course, the main knowledge value creators themselves-->
33 Petroleum is the frontline cluster: Process Other industry Fisheries & fish farming Petroleum Finance Shipping Power ICT
34 The answer to the how is not about easy PR etc. It is about hard qualified research and analysis. The industry must invest in research about the behaviour of knowledge as capital and its own functionality. Potential returns are very high.
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