The Feasibility of Alternative IMF-Type Stabilization Programs in Mexico,
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1 The Feasibility of Alternative IMF-Type Stabilization Programs in Mexico, Robert E. Looney and P. C. Frederiksen, Naval Postgraduate School In November 1982, Mexico announced an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a program to ease the country's large foreign debt. Mexico may receive nearly $4 billion worth of credit if the government reduces the deficit, raises taxes and curbs imports. This article investigates whether an IMF program like this can work in Mexico without a serious and immediate economic contraction. A model is constructed to examine the impact of government fiscal activity under alternative stabilization programs. The analysis suggests a critical element for success is the ability and willingness to raise tax revenues. INTRODUCTION The year 1978 represented the beginning of a period of rapid economic growth for the Mexican economy. Based on rising oil revenues, foreign loans and investments, and relative political stability, investment, consumption, and income rose at impressive rates. By the early 1980s the growth process faltered. Mexico experienced rising inflation, declining productivity, structural imbalances in most labor markets, and catastrophic rural emigration. As a result, in February 1982 there began a major economic crisis that threatened to choke off the process of economic growth for the foreseeable future. To many observers (Riding 1981; Friedman 1982; Dorfman 1982) the injection of massive oil incomes after 1977 only exacerbated many of the long-standing problems faced by Mexico. On November 10, 1982, the Mexican government announced an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a program to ease Mexico's large foreign debt. Under the agreement Mexico may receive $3.84 billion worth of credit from the IMF over the next three' years. To qualify, the government must drastically reduce its deficit, raise taxes, and curb imports. The purpose ofthis article is to examine the feasibility and consequences on the Mexican economy of various IMF "type" stabilization programs during the de la Madrid presidency ( ). Address correspondence to Robert E. Looney, Department of Economics. Naval Postgraduate School. Monterey. CA _ An earlier version of this article was presented at the Allied Social Science Meetings in New York, December, Journal of Policy Modeling 5( 1): (1983) Society for Policy Modeling, /83/$3.00
2 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED to TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Feasibility of Alternative IMF-Type Stabilization Programs in Mexico, a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School,Monterey,CA 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR S ACRONYM(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR S REPORT NUMBER(S) 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Same as Report (SAR) 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 10 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
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