Refined Oils Weekly Wire 05/25/2012
|
|
- Brianne Dean
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Refined Oils Weekly Wire 05/25/2012 The following is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell a commodity. Much of this information is derived from sources that are believed to be reliable, but we cannot give any assurance or guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading is inherently risky and actual market results may vary significantly from the following. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this information.
2 Bears Bulls Members of the Eurogroup Working Group (creative name) leaked a memo on Wednesday that directed member states to plan independently for a Greek exit from the EU. The memo suggested a Grexit (also extremely creative) would be manageable for members, and that the ECB would likely supply Greece with 50 billion Euros to help smooth over the transition. Many believe the grexit would be beyond terrible for Greece, and a huge negative for the Euro. In response, the US$ surged this week to levels not seen since Nov 2010, and crude oil fell below $90. On top of all that fear liquidation, these extremely volatile markets have caused another dilemma for traders. Value at Risk is an important measure for trading limits, and is basically a measure of risk of loss on a specific portfolio given a time horizon and a standard deviation of mark-to-market probabilities. It has been noted by some that volatility over the last week has caused VaR to rise significantly so much so that if a trader was at 80% of his VaR limit last Friday and has made no trade limits since then, he could be well over 100% VaR today, forcing him to sell out of positions (this is because volatility increases the risk of any trade). And if this happens to a lot of people at once, mass selling could take place creating a bad feedback loop. Rumors of China cancelling cargoes of everything from beans to iron ore to coal have rattled markets, leading many to believe their economy is worst off than previously thought. Soybean exports last week of just over 800,000 tonnes, and while up 30% from the previous week, most analysts were expecting exports of between million tonnes. Soybean oil exports also disappointed last week at 9,400 tonnes. Analysts were expecting between 15-20k tonnes. Chinese customs data released this week showed that soybean oil imports in the moth of April were 77,806 tonnes, a 52.48% increase over April Rapeseed oil imports were 69,111 tonnes, up 5.42%. Palm oil imports were 458,859 tonnes, up 1.29%. Chinese custom officials also announced that soybean imports were million tonnes, up 26% from the year prior. Rapeseed imports were 287,244 tonnes, up 254%. Celeres estimated this week that the Brazilian soybean crop was 84% sold vs 65% a year earlier. This leads some to believe that farmers are running out of bullets to pressure the CBOT price. Celeres also estimated that farmers have sold 26% of the new crop. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its estimate for Argentina s soybean crop to 39.9 million metric tonnes from their previous forecast of 41 million tonnes. Their statement cited bad weather as the reason for the decrease. Soybean meal export sales of 144,600 tonnes were up 26% from the week prior, and 9% higher than the 4-week average. 144,600 tonnes were in the middle of the range of expectations, and helped to sell the story of global protein tightness. There has been talk this week about an El Nino threat for the last half of 2012 which could adversely effect palm oil production in Malaysia. Lately palm oil has been trading at a US$130/metric tonne discount to Soybean oil, so a bounce in that could support soy prices.
3 July Soy Oil (BON) MACD Trade Volume Index For people like me who are interested in this kind of thing, this week I am going to highlight some of the technical indicators a little bit more. First up, the MACD. What this does is try to gauge market momentum by comparing the difference between moving averages (buy when the difference of the 12 and 26 day moving averages crosses above the 9 day MA, and sell when it does the opposite). In the above chart buy signals are represented by green circles, and sells by red ones. If you were to follow this strategy in 2012, you would have a profit of 757 points (In fairness, 728 points of that profit has come in the last move). The last time a sell signal was tripped was on April 16 th. Between then and now, the signal widened to -.41, and has now narrowed back to -.26 (getting back to 0 would be a buy signal). The second indicator I want to look at this week is the Trade Volume Index. What this shows is how much volume is traded at (or near) the Bid or Ask Prices. The theory goes that if trades are getting done closer to the Ask price, it means traders are accumulating long positions (TVI Value is rising), and if trades are getting done at the Bid price, traders are likely accumulating short positions (TVI value is falling). I wrote the above on Tuesday, before Wednesday's liquidation. Total profit for following the MACD is now around 800 points since Jan 1. 3
4 July Oil Share July oil share continues to chop around, lacking direction. In previous weeks it had been declining as global meal tightness increased the likelihood of a healthy oil supply, but this week it felt like the decline might have been over done. Also, continued strong exports out of South America have lead some to question how tight world stocks really are. Looks like we will need more strong confirmation before oil share makes another large move lower. 4
5 Soy & Palm Price Relationship All in US Dollars per Metric Tonne 5
6 Soybean Complex Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial Funds (Beans, Meal, and Oil Combined) Non-commercial funds cut their net long position in the soybean complex for the third consecutive week. The decline of 43,270 futures and options was the largest weekly decline since the week of Sept 27 th Non-comm funds have now shed over 98,000 contracts of length in the last three weeks. However, at the same time open interest across the complex has risen by 53,316 contracts, indicating new shorts may have entered the market. 6
7 Soybean Oil Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial Funds Net Change Summary: Net position -18,900, open interest +16,750 Non-commercial funds decreased their net oil position for the fifth straight week, increasing their net short by 18,900 contracts. The net short position as now at its shortest Jan 31 st. The current net position is -22,424, and the low water mark for non-comm funds for the last two years is a net position of -30,680 futures and options in November of last year. Open interest in soybean oil futures and options has grown each of the last two weeks. 7
8 Top & Bottom Ten Cross-Commodity Correlations- One Week Positive correlation means prices move up or down together, and negative correlations mean if one price is up the other is down. A perfectly direct correlation has a value of 1, a perfectly uncorrelated data set would have a value of 0, and perfectly inverted correlation has a value of -1. Top Ten Positive Correlations Top Ten Negative Correlations This slide perhaps is the one that speaks loudest to me right now. Right now, soybean oil holds the top three cross commodity correlation spots, and they are all with energies (heating oil, crude oil, and gasoline). What this tells me is that bean oil a near complete follower in the world market right now, trading only on macroeconomic events, and not on fundamentals. While there are funds still betting on oil share, it seems the flat direction of soybean oil is more dependent on the world economy for the near future. 8
9 Heating Oil-Bean Oil (HOBO) Spread The higher the spread, the more incentive biodiesel producers have to use soybean oil to make methyl ester The heating oil-bean oil spread rallied about 12 cents per gallon this week between Monday and Thursday, meaning that soybean oil is more favorable to use in methyl ester production. However, this does not necessarily mean more soybean oil has been sold to biodiesel producers as the EPA s notices of violation for fraudulent 2011 RINs has kept a lid on the methyl ester market for the time being. So while margins on paper look better this week than they did last week, physical volume is still extremely light and likely wont pick up until the EPA clears the waters on fake RIN announcements. Also holding up production has been a delay in the EPA announcement for the 2013 mandate. Many believe it will be billion gallons, but until it is certain obligated parties will sit on the sidelines. Most expect the announcement to come sometime in June. 9
10 Corn Planting Progress 10
11 Soybean Planting Progress with yields 11
12 US Forecast: 6-10 Day Outlook from NOAA Probability of above or below normal Precipitation Temperature 12
13 NOAA Precipitation Analysis Past 7 days percent of normal precipitation 13
14 Canola Notes Rapeseed futures in Winnipeg have increased about C$10/metric tonne in the last two weeks which has smashed board margin as product prices fell hard. Canola board margin for December is now down about C$40/tonne since the end of April, which has been extremely supportive for canola oil basis as the cas margin now must carry more of the burden. There were a few worries this week about cold temperatures in the Canadian Prairies Thursday night. Across parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba temperatures fell below freezing for several hours, worrying farmers who had gotten their crops in the ground early. Most meteorologists don t think temps fell below 30, so there was no hard freeze, but canola futures responded up about 1% on the news. Canola planting is ahead of pace across Canada. Saskatchewan is reporting around 64% done, and Alberta over 50%. Manitoba planting is nearly finished. 14
15 Canadian Prairies one month departure from average precipitation 15
16 December Canola Board Margin & November Rapeseed (Orange) 16
17 USDA National Ag-Energy Round Up- May 18 th,
18 18
19 Enhancing lives by improving the agribusiness and food production chain 19
DAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Monday January 04, 2016
DAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Monday January 04, 2016 DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY Nice widespread rains for central/northern Brazil plus selling? SOY BEANS -4.4, BEAN OIL -0.4, SOYMEAL -0.4 OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS:
More informationSaturday, January 5, Notes from Al
Get This Newsletter Every Saturday from Al Kluis Commodities..."Your Markets, Right Now"...AlKluis.com Saturday, January 5, 2013 Notes from Al Happy New Year and welcome to a volatile 2013. It has been
More informationMARKETLINE. Soybeans: Bullish Acreage Report. Cash Only. Future Hedgers. What to Sell. Future Hedgers. Only
MARKETLINE www.progressiveag.com 701-277-9210 1-800-450-1404 April 1, 2016 What to Sell Cash Only Cash Only Future Hedgers Future Hedgers Week s Rank 2015 2016 2015 2016 1. HRS Wheat 30% 0% 30% 0% 2. Soybeans
More informationMay 26, 2017 CORN. Planting Progress
May 26, 2017 CORN ENCOURAGING WEEK July corn was strong right out of the gate Monday as the market responded to some weather complications across the Corn Belt. Soybeans came under pressure late in the
More informationKey Commodity Report Weekly
Key Commodity Report Weekly CME Group Corn Soybean Soy Meal Soybean Oil Rough Rice Wheat Cheddar Barrel Cheddar Block Milk Class III Butter AA Source: CME Group *Euro *British Pound Canadian Dollar Chinese
More informationKey Commodity Report Weekly
Key Commodity Report Weekly CME Group Corn Soybean Soy Meal Soybean Oil Rough Rice Wheat Cheddar Barrel Cheddar Block Milk Class III Butter AA Source: CME Group USDA Weekly Prices Live Cattle Course Ground
More informationSoybeans face make or break moment Futures need a two-fer to avoid losses By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst
Soybeans face make or break moment Futures need a two-fer to avoid losses By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst A year ago USDA shocked the market by cutting its forecast of soybean production, helping
More informationThe yellow highlighted areas are bear markets with NO recession.
Part 3, Final Report: Major Market Reversal Model This is the third and final report on my major market reversal model. This portion of the model focuses on the domestic and international economy. I ve
More informationSOYBEAN COMPLEX SPRING OUTLOOK
30 141 W. Jackson Boulevard THE HIGHTOWER REPORT FUTURES ANALYSIS & FORECASTING Suite 4002 Chicago, Illinois 60604 312-786-4450 / 800-662-9346 www.futures-research.com Special Report SOYBEAN COMPLEX SPRING
More informationOvercoming Greed and Fear in Commodity Markets. Larry Martin, Ph. D. Agrifood Management Excellence ,
Overcoming Greed and Fear in Commodity Markets Larry Martin, Ph. D. Agrifood Management Excellence 519 841 1698, dlm@xplornet.com Introduction Presentation based on our company s recent column in Country
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team March, 2 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities
More informationMARKETLINE. Soybeans: South American Pressure. Cash Only. Future Hedgers. What to Sell. Future Hedgers. Only
MARKETLINE www.progressiveag.com 701-277-9210 1-800-450-1404 February 26, 2016 What to Sell Cash Only Cash Only Future Hedgers Future Hedgers Week s Rank 2015 2016 2015 2016 1. HRS Wheat 30% 0% 30% 0%
More informationAshley Gulke Leavitt Gulke Group, Inc
Ashley Gulke Leavitt Gulke Group, Inc How To Read Market Charts Cell Phone: 815-520-4227 Email:Ashley@gulkegroup.com Technical Analysis: Looking at past price movements to project future movements. Pros/
More informationMarket Summary. Commitment of. Traders. Managed Money. Fund Positions
October 26, 2018 Market Summary The grain markets saw an increase in volatility to end the week with December corn declining 7 1/4 cents on Thursday before rebounding 6 3/4 cents on Friday. This follows
More informationInfluences on the Market. Common Marketing Terms. Types of Contracts. Terms of Contracts
Jackie Reichter DeBruce Grain, Nebraska City Grain Marketing Commodity od Exchanges/Futures Symbols Influences on the Market Common Marketing Terms Types of Contracts Terms of Contracts Commodity Exchanges
More informationCombined Index Trader Net Position Corn, Soybeans, Wheat
Weather No changes in the forecast this morning. Active showers in the eastern US over the next week, with some significant totals seen in the ECB over that timeframe. WCB areas should see limited amounts.
More informationRick Alexander
ralexander@zaner.com MEAL CONTINUES TO LEAD THE CORN AND SOYBEAN COMPLEX HIGHER Posted on 5/18/2016 6:52:57 AM WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY
More informationBUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING. Summer Crossroads: Volatility and Opportunity. Bryce Knorr Farm Futures Magazine
Summer Crossroads: Volatility and Opportunity Bryce Knorr Farm Futures Magazine Don t Bury The Lead Why were soybeans up more than 50 cents despite higher acres? 2014 crop likely smaller Acreage up in
More informationWe have seen extreme volatility for commodity futures recently. In fact, we could make a case that volatility has been increasing steadily since the original significant moves which began in 2005-06 for
More informationTop Producer Conference Chicago, Illinois January 21, 2009
Top Producer Conference Chicago, Illinois January 21, 2009 A Primer on Risk Management 2009 Jeff Beal JERRY GULKE S STRATEGIC MARKETING SERVICES, INC. PO BOX 6222, ROCKFORD, IL, 61125 Phone: 602-795-5893
More informationCHS Pro Advantage Update- February Corn
CHS Pro Advantage Update- February 2018 Corn Recap and Outlook- The most important thing that happened in corn since our last update is the breakout of the 2 ½ month trading range that had existed prior
More informationINPUT CAPITAL CORP. ANNOUNCES FY2017 Q3 RESULTS AND REPORTS RAPID MARKET ACCEPTANCE OF MARKETING STREAMS
NEWS RELEASE For Immediate Release INPUT CAPITAL CORP. ANNOUNCES FY2017 Q3 RESULTS AND REPORTS RAPID MARKET ACCEPTANCE OF MARKETING STREAMS Regina, Saskatchewan, August 15, 2017 Input Capital Corp. ( Input
More information4.25 ¾ 4.19 FG March 2018 Wheat ¾ Pivotal new Contract Low 4.02 ½ 5 day chart. Down from last week same day Daily chart... Down Weekly
s 9:50 pm Chicago time 12/11/17 December 12, 2017 March 2018 Corn 3.56 3.52 ¾ FG --------------3.48 ¼ Pivotal new Contract Low 3.43 ¾ 5 day chart. Down from last week same day Daily chart. Down Weekly
More informationTurner s Take WASDE Expectations vs. Sept WASDE report:
Published by: Craig Turner 11/4/2013 4:02:09 PM In this issue 1) CORN: USDA Friday exected to be bearish. Looking to short Corn ahead of WASDE 2) SOYBEANS: Short Bean Ideas with Long Call Protection 3)
More informationDAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Friday June 29, 2018
DAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Friday June 29, 2018 DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY 06/29/18 Without help from Weather or China; supply news bearish OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT): SOY BEANS +2.0, BEAN OIL
More informationDaily Commentary. Corn (888) Monday, July 22, Today s Trade Action. Today s Closing Prices. Recommendations.
Corn The market finished lower but off it earlier lows as soybeans supplied support for the corn market today. The USDA cut the good to excellent rating by 3 points in crop condition report released after
More informationpresented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Black Gold
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Black Gold Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all persons. Before deciding
More informationTHE HIGHTOWER REPORT
Futures Analysis & Forecasting HightowerReport.com March 21, 214 Strategies for March 31st Report: Non-standard Options New, non-standard options at the CME can be great tools for commodity traders, especially
More informationINPUT CAPITAL CORP. ANNOUNCES RECORD CANOLA SALES IN FY2018 Q1 RESULTS
NEWS RELEASE For Immediate Release INPUT CAPITAL CORP. ANNOUNCES RECORD CANOLA SALES IN FY2018 Q1 RESULTS Regina, Saskatchewan, February 14, 2018 Input Capital Corp. ( Input or the Company ) (TSX Venture:
More informationSoybeans face long road End to tariffs wouldn t help 2018 exports much By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst
Soybeans face long road End to tariffs wouldn t help 2018 exports much By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Forecasting grain prices is relatively easy in normal times. Most models assume the future
More informationSoybean Monthly Report
Soybean Monthly Report 27 March 2010 The soybean prices in the spot and futures were on a bearish trend since beginning of December 2009 due to selling pressure from the traders and investors following
More informationCattle: Dollar: Energies:
j 3/11/2015 CONTACTS: Chuck Shelby O: (866) 837-9027 C: (765) 426-7535 Bryan Shelby O: (866) 837-9027 Bill Gentry O: (877) 433-4348 or O: (866) 837-9027 C: (219) 863-0055 Sherman Newlin O: (866) 314-5765
More informationTrading Commodities. An introduction to understanding commodities
Trading Commodities An introduction to understanding commodities Brainteaser Problem: A casino offers a card game using a deck of 52 cards. The rule is that you turn over two cards each time. For each
More informationNews & Development Rising Channel Bollinger Band Overall, we maintain our bullish view in MCX Crude Oil for the next one month.
13 th April 2018 News & Development MCX Crude Oil prices has witnessed a spike in the last couple of days and closed at Rs.4362/bbl by 12 th April. Geopolitical tensions prevailing across the globe led
More informationSeptember futures traded to a new low for the move of 3.46 ¾ probing under the June 19 th low. Resistance is at the winter lows of 3.70, the 50% retra
Technical Overview Corn prices have continued to drop and are testing the lows on the nearby contracts from last winter near 3.35, completely retracing the winter/spring rally. The next support is the
More informationRAIN AND A COOLER WEATHER FORCAST KEEPS PRESSURE ON THE GRAIN COMPLEX
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP RAIN AND A COOLER WEATHER FORCAST KEEPS PRESSURE ON THE GRAIN COMPLEX Higher close for rough rice while lower closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City
More informationFundamental Update: Has the Euro fallen far enough?
Fundamental Update: Has the Euro fallen far enough? Kathleen Brooks, Research Director FOREX.COM May 29, 2012 I overheard an interesting conversation the other day; someone was saying they were too frightened
More informationBESTER DERIVATIVE TRADING TECHNICAL BRIEF
9 November 2018 US DOLLAR INDEX BESTER DERIVATIVE TRADING TECHNICAL BRIEF The US Dollar Index is developing the third upward leg inside an upward sloping channel which started in September. Resistance
More informationMarket Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018
Market Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. This week began with most markets continuing their bullish trends
More informationEdition Publishing Financial E-letter since 2001 September 23, 2012
Edition 702.0 Publishing Financial E-letter since 2001 September 23, 2012 Weekly Newsletter from 24-28 September 2012 Dear Members, Last week Indexes and metals remained in bullish tone. Oil and grains
More informationMarket Observations - as of Sep 7, 2018
Market Observations - as of Sep 7, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. Last week we saw a strong and broad rally to new all time highs
More informationWeekly Financial letter from March 2012
Edition 673.0 March 11, 2012 Weekly Financial letter from 12-16 March 2012 Dear Members, Once again I will start this newsletter with simple few lines. You should to write these down in your diary as these
More informationBy Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn. 14- Day RSI. 10-Day Moving Avg. Today's Low
www.lefflercom.com By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn TODAY S THOUGHT Friday, December 30, 2016 HAPPY NEW YEAR 2017 MONDAY, JAN 2 ND GRAINS OPEN AT 7 PM.TUESDAY, JAN 3 RD LIVESTOCK OPENS AT 8:30 AM Tues Jan
More informationMONTHLY MILK & FEED MARKET UPDATE
MONTHLY MILK & FEED MARKET UPDATE Provided By: Curtis Bosma - (312) 870-1185 - curtisb@highgroundtrading.com December 2014 A Sinking Ship? As the leaves began to fall, so did milk futures. Cheese sellers
More informationBOND MODEL COMMENTARY FOR APRIL 9, 2007
BOND MODEL COMMENTARY FOR APRIL 9, 2007 Charts and technical commentary by David Chapman Union Securities Ltd, 33 Yonge Street, Suite 901, Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1G4 fax (416) 604-0533, (416) 604-0557,
More informationCOMMODITIES ESSENTIAL The resource for what matters
COMMODITIES ESSENTIAL The resource for what matters Futures Forecast, p2 A mixed bag looking short on metals, neutral on grains, short on crude and long on nat gas. Main Article, p2thru4 Hedge funds are
More informationWhy We See Lower Copper Prices in 2018
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Why We See Lower Copper Prices in 218 December 21, 217 Key Takeaways» 216 and 217 were great years
More informationA Different Take on Money Management
A Different Take on Money Management www.simple4xsystem.net Anyone who read one of my books or spent time in one of my trade rooms knows I put a lot of emphasis on using sound Money Management principles
More informationJake Bernstein Advanced Trader Sessions (ATS)
Jake Bernstein Advanced Trader Sessions (ATS) http://www.jakebernstein.com 800-678-5253 831-430-0600 ATS 1 Session 4 16 February 2012 January Effect Weekly Trigger: Status Big Moves and COT: A Much Closer
More informationIs it 1932 o r 1942, 1958,
Volume 23, No. 1, April 24, 2009 CWS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC CWS Capital Partners LLC Is it 1932 o r 1942, 1958, 1962, 1970, 1975, 1978, 1982, 2002? CALENDAR OF EVENTS Monday, May 25, 2009 Memorial Day, CWS
More informationCrops Marketing and Management Update
Crops Marketing and Management Update Grains and Forage Center of Excellence Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Vol. 2018 (2) February 14, 2018 Topics
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 December 22, 20 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected
More informationOil and Oilseeds Weekly
5/15/21 5/21/21 5/27/21 6/2/21 6/8/21 6/19/21 6/25/21 7/1/21 7/7/21 7/13/21 5/17/21 5/24/21 5/31/21 6/7/21 6/21/21 6/28/21 7/5/21 7/12/21 Soybean Strategy - SELL Soybean August NCDEX: Buy at 198-199 TP
More informationThanks also to Daniels Trading who provided some of the data and technical assistance.
GUY BOWER Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Mini Glossary 4 3. Strategy #1: The Bull Spread 6 4. Strategy #2: The Bear Spread 8 5. Strategy #3: The Inter Commodity Spread 10 6. Summation 12 7. About the Author
More informationIMPROVED WHEAT CONDITIONS IN USA. RAIN IN FORECAST. POSSIBLE DOWN 10% YIELD IN BRAZILIAN CORN CROP.
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP IMPROVED WHEAT CONDITIONS IN USA. RAIN IN FORECAST. POSSIBLE DOWN 10% YIELD IN BRAZILIAN CORN CROP. Higher closes for corn, Minneapolis and Chicago
More informationDaily Flash News
Daily Flash News Issue: 3049 8 August 2014 Friday s Flashnews for all major markets Dear Members, Today I am just writing ranges as I am will be busy doing Pooja for 12 hours starting at 7.00 AM. In India
More informationA BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016
A BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016 Probabilities for higher prices, and the factors that could spur price rallies. Commodity markets tend to move on three variables: perception, momentum and
More informationDaily Flash News
Daily Flash News Edition: 893 5 January 2014 Weekly Newsletter from 6-10 January 2014 Dear Members, Many experts started releasing 2014 outlook, and most of them seem to have optimistic views on the USA
More informationMarket Price Considerations Week Beginning April 10, 2017
Market Price Considerations Week Beginning April 10, 2017 DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY 1 Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division
More informationALWAYS BEWARE OF DRY WEATHER FORECASTS
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP ALWAYS BEWARE OF DRY WEATHER FORECASTS Higher to sharply higher closes for oats, rough rice,corn, soybeans, soymeal and soybean oil along with
More informationIn the previous session we learned about the various categories of Risk in agriculture. Of course the whole point of talking about risk in this
In the previous session we learned about the various categories of Risk in agriculture. Of course the whole point of talking about risk in this educational series is so that we can talk about managing
More informationTortilla Association
Tortilla Association Commodity Session Robert D. Bresnahan May 18, 2016 Late Imperial China The Ultimate Principle 221 B.C. to 206 B.C. When goods become extremely expensive, then they must become inexpensive
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationREUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q2 OUTLOOK WANG TAO
The Irving Oil refinery is photographed at sunset on in Saint John, New Brunswick, March 9, 2014. REUTERS/Devaan Ingraham REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q2 OUTLOOK 2014 - WANG TAO It will be a bearish quarter
More informationAdam Pukalo Commodity Futures Advisor TECHNICALS & TRENDS. February 2017 Edition. Highlighted: Canola, Canadian Dollar, Wheat, Corn, Cattle
TECHNICALS & TRENDS February 2017 Edition Highlighted: Canola, Canadian Dollar, Wheat, Corn, Cattle Before I start this months review and look ahead I want to mention some significant market moves we saw
More informationWeekly Report - For the week of September 24, 2018 Page 1
Page 1 Market Overview Leading indicators figures for August were released on Friday. And, the August number of.4% seemed pretty much in line with analyst expectations. In the week ahead, traders may want
More informationMarket Observations - as of May 18, 2018
Market Observations - as of May 18, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. After about 4 weeks of a relatively flat horizontal market (in
More informationGold in a policy normalisation phase August 2018
0.02 2.02.03 0.04 09.05 08.06 07.07 06.08 05.09 04.0 03. 02.2 0.3 2.3.4 0.5 09.6 08.7 Gold price (USD) Inflation Nowcaster (Z-score) PERSPECTIVES F O R P R O F E S S I O N A L I N V E S T O R S O N L Y
More informationWASDE REPORT: GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS INCREASED. US STOCKS UNCHANGED
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP WASDE REPORT: GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS INCREASED. US STOCKS UNCHANGED Higher closes for oats and corn while lower closes for rough rice, soybeans,
More informationTHE SPECIALIST IN TRADING AND INVESTMENT
WCU: US jobs shocker kicks gold back to life By Ole Hansen Commodities continue to recover with the Bloomberg Commodity Index reaching a seven-month high. During this process the index, which reflects
More informationCanola seed (formerly rapeseed) futures began trading in Winnipeg in 1963 on the Winnipeg
Canola IntercontinentalExchange ( I C E ) b e c a m e t h e c e n t e r of global canola trading with its acquisition of the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange in 2007. Canola seed (formerly rapeseed) futures
More informationReport Summary. Prices are likely to hold above MYR 2550 and trade on mixed note ahead of turning higher in the coming sessions
Daily BMD CPO Price Outlook and Strategy Decision enabling market analysis & price outlook For Dec 31, 2013 Report Summary BMD CPO Mar 14 Futures Fundamental Summary MYR 2631( 1) on Dec 30, 2013 Price
More informationUK Grain Marketing Series January 19, Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor. Economics
Introduction to Basis, Cash Forward Contracts, HTA Contracts and Basis Contracts UK Grain Marketing Series January 19, 2016 Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor Outline What is basis and how can
More informationCrops Marketing and Management Update
Crops Marketing and Management Update Grains and Forage Center of Excellence Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Vol. 2018 (3) March 11, 2018 Topics in
More informationWeekly Newsletter from 22-26 by Mahendra Sharma, Copyright 2012. All Rights Reserved Page 1 1 Weekly Newsletter from 22-26 October 2012 This is short term fall which may end during this week-end Dear Members,
More informationDAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Tuesday June 12, 2018
DAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Tuesday June 12, 2018 DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY 06/12/18 No sign of low but North Korea news long term supportive OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT): SOY BEANS +7.0, BEAN
More informationCASH SOYBEANS AT 10 YEAR LOWS.
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP CASH SOYBEANS AT 10 YEAR LOWS. Higher close for oats while lower closes for oats, rough rice, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along
More informationMarket Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market
August 9, 2018 Market Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market If you just listened to the news headlines, it would be hard to find reasons to like this market. Trade Wars ; Tariff Threats
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 462 June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit. August 9, Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience
COMMENTARY NUMBER 462 June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit August 9, 2012 Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience Trade Data Place Upside Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP Revision Consumer Credit
More informationMarket Observations - as of May 11, 2018
Market Observations - as of May 11, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. After about four weeks of very little net change in the major indexes
More informationUnderstanding the Canola Futures Contract. Introduction. Background
Understanding the Canola Futures Contract Introduction Canola is a Canadian crop, developed from rapeseed by Canadian researchers through traditional plant breeding and selection techniques. Canola has
More informationCommtrendz Research. Weekly Snapshots 04-June-2007
Comex Gold (August) Gold futures ended higher on Friday as crude oil prices surged higher and base metals regained their strength. Economic data released during the week suggest that the Fed may hold interest
More informationREUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q1 OUTLOOK WANG TAO
An employee works in a ferronickel smelter owned by state miner Aneka Tambang Tbk at Pomala district in Indonesia's southeast Sulawesi province March 30, 2011. The country accounts for roughly 7 percent
More informationWon2One with Nick Foglietta
July 6 th 2015 Won2One with Nick Foglietta Tactical Equity Income Model Portfolio Record 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% S&P/TSX Composite RBC TEAM 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
More informationCOMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS. TRADING GAME ASSIGNMENT Fall 2015
COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS TRADING GAME ASSIGNMENT Fall 2015 The class will be divided into groups of about 6 students, and each group should choose a group leader to arrange deadlines and plans. The goal
More informationCommtrendz Research. Weekly Snapshots 25-June-2007
Comex Gold (August) Gold futures settled higher on Friday helped by a softer dollar and firm crude oil prices. COMEX gold futures rose higher in line with our expectations and then fell lower sharply.
More informationHedge Strategies Using Options Ahead of USDA June 30 th Reports
Hedge Strategies Using Options Ahead of USDA June 30 th Reports David Hightower June 23, 2014 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Options of Options A diverse set of tools to trade around short-term events
More informationJune 9 th Client Comment
Client Comment June 9 th 2017 You are receiving this email because you are a client of Nick Foglietta s and you own one or more positions in the Tactical Equity Allocation Model (TEAM Model), or you are
More informationWorld Sugar in flux - Forecasting the Market Movements
World Sugar in flux - Forecasting the Market Movements Peter de Klerk Senior Economist 1 Source: https://theprogenygroup.com/blog/the-follies-of-making-market-predictions/ The trouble with forecasting
More informationNivesh Commodity. Comex Division FROM RESEARCH DESK. Daily Change & Technical levels. Bullions (Spot) Last close % change
Nivesh Commodity 11 th JAN, 2018 FROM RESEARCH DESK Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1,090,525 2325 Copper 203,750 75 Lead 143,450 600 Nickel 365,868 1188
More informationWrestling with Something Else : Why this Gold Bear Market Is Different
Wrestling with Something Else : Why this Gold Bear Market Is Different May 15, 2015 by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors Earlier this week, I had the pleasure to appear on Jim Puplava s Financial Sense
More informationUsing Futures and Options to Manage Hog Price Volatility
Using Futures and Options to Manage Hog Price Volatility Larry Martin, Ph. D. Agrifood Management Excellence and Dr. Larry Martin &Associates, Inc. Ph: 519 623 8622, dlm@xplornet.com Introduction and Objectives
More informationWeb Resources. Acknowledgements
GUY BOWER Web Resources Daniels Trading offer comprehensive, reliable and customer-focused commodity futures brokerage services to address all trading preferences. Their website is also a great place for
More informationNo duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author.
Copyright Option Genius LLC. All Rights Reserved No duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author. Be advised that all information is
More informationDAILY ENERGY COMPLEX COMMENTARY 11/01/18
Thursday November 01, 2018 150 S. Wacker Dr., Suite 2350 Chicago, IL 60606 800-621-1414 or 312-277-0102 info@zaner.com www.zaner.com DAILY ENERGY COMPLEX COMMENTARY A lack of bullish response to EIA/Equities
More informationWheat Outlook August 19, 2013 Volume 22, Number 45
Market Situation Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1 Weather 1 Crop Progress. The winter wheat harvest is 96% complete as of August 18th, just ahead of the normal pace of 94%. The spring
More informationInformed Storage: Understanding the Risks and Opportunities
Art Informed Storage: Understanding the Risks and Opportunities Randy Fortenbery School of Economic Sciences College of Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences Washington State University The
More informationFebruary 2018 Monthly Commodity Market Overview Newsletter. Stock Index Futures
February 2018 Monthly Commodity Market Overview Newsletter By the ADMIS Research Team Stock Index Futures There was a severe decline in the first week of February with S&P 500 futures posting the biggest
More informationBUYERS, BUBBLES, AND BUTTERFLIES Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. DTN/The Progressive Farmer 2010 Ag Summit December 10, 2010
BUYERS, BUBBLES, AND BUTTERFLIES Senior Analyst Darin Newsom DTN/The Progressive Farmer 2010 Ag Summit December 10, 2010 Buyers -! "In other words, demand driven markets! "Demand driven markets: Increased
More informationMerricks Capital Wheat Basis and Carry Trade
Merricks Capital Wheat Basis and Carry Trade Executive Summary Regulatory changes post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has reduced the level of financing available to a wide range of markets. Merricks
More information