Preliminary Salmon Outlook for 2011 IHPC Nov 24, 2010

Transcription

1 Preliminary Salmon Outlook for 2011 IHPC Nov 24, 2010 Prepared by Regional Salmon Stock Assessment PBS A Tompkins South Coast StAD Fraser River StAD North Coast StAd Yukon/Trans-Boundary StAD; & Institute of Ocean Science 1

2 What is the Outlook? Preliminary forecast of status (version 1) Categorical, not quantitative Status and targets are based on a variety of approaches including expert opinion. 2

3 Criteria applied to individual Stock Groups more equivalent to management groups (n = 93) than WSP Conservation Units (n > 450 CU s). Category Abundance Trend 1. Stock of concern 2. Low 3. Near Target 4. Abundant <25% target 25% to 75% of target 75% to 125% of target >125% of target Declining rapidly Declining Stable N/A Objective & consistent context for fisheries planning. From biological perspective, gives indication of fishing opportunities and stocks around which fisheries may be shaped. Is a prelude to PSARC forecasts and formal advice. 3 No Steelhead populations included.

4 Past Outlook Status Assessments The yearly salmon stock Outlooks are illustrated by category back to Based on 93 geographic stock groups as in past years. 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Future salmon outlooks will be increasingly harmonized with WSP conservation units and biological status zones (red, amber, green) 4

5 2011 Outlook compared to 2009 & 2010 Outlooks stock groups > target (-2 groups to ND) 29 stock groups > target stock groups > target 32 stock groups of some conservation concerns 24 stock groups with mixed categories due to multiple populations within the group 6 stock groups Not Assessed 34 stock groups of some conservation concerns 21 stock groups with mixed categories due to multiple populations within the group 4 stock groups Not Assessed 21 stock groups of some conservation concerns 18 stock groups with mixed categories due to multiple populations within the group 4 Not Assessed 13 TBD 5

6 Sockeye 2011 Outlook 29 stocks groups, 258 CUs Returns moderate to near target for major stock groups, larger in Fraser. Stocks of concern: E Stuart, wild Skeena, Cultus, Georgia St., Johnstone St. & WCVI outlook compared to previous years: 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%

7 Chinook 2011 Outlook 25 stock groups, 81 CUs Stocks of concern: St. Georgia wild, WCVI wild, and Fraser stream-type, including Birkenhead. Fraser early-timed, spring / summer stocks declining rapidly Large abundance of Fraser fall run ocean-type stocks (BY 2007) 2011 outlook compared to previous years: 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%

8 Coho 2011 Outlook 19 stock groups, 46 CUs Improved survival in recent years Stocks of concern: Thompson, upper Fraser, lower Fraser, Georgia Strait 2011 outlook compared to previous years: 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%

9 Pink 2011 Outlook 9 stock groups, 32 CUs CC & NC brood escapement good, above average returns expected. Strait of Georgia and Area 11/13 returns highly variable; projected to be moderately low to near target. Above average returns expected to Fraser River 2011 outlook compared to previous years: 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%

10 Chum 2011 Outlook 11 stock groups, 46 CUs Forecasts highly uncertain Stocks of concern in Skeena/Nass, & coastal A5/6 Stocks in South coast at or below target outlook compared to previous years: 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%

11 Chinook AABM Fishery Abundance Indices 2010 pre-season values near average for NBC & WCVI 2011 pre-season expectations for NBC is similar to 2010 & WCVI about 15% lower than NBC Abundance Index base period abundance =1 WCVI PST agreements Year 11

12 Observations for Sea-Entry Years 2007 SEY, several stocks very low survival Sockeye: most Fraser stocks Chinook: Fall-lower Fraser Coho: Interior Fraser, Lower Fraser 2008 SEY, some stocks high survival Pinks: Fraser Sockeye: Somass, Fraser Chinook: Fall-lower Fraser Low survival: Chinook Late Summer- South Thompson Chinook Spring-lower Thompson Coho Mid-Upper Fraser, Thompson, Lower Fraser 2009 SEY favourable conditions but less than 2008 SEY Low survival: Chinook Late Summer- South Thompson 12

13 Summary Improved survival conditions have contributed to increased abundance for some (e.g. many Fraser sockeye), but not all stocks (e.g. WCVI Chinook) Despite relatively improved ocean conditions in 2008 and 2009, many BC salmon populations remain depressed due to low numbers of brood-year spawners, partially attributed to survival and production during the mid 2000s. 13