FlashMarket - November 2015
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- Abigayle Benson
- 6 years ago
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1 - November 2015 Sugar #11 and #5 : prices November: a step at 15cts/lb and what s next? Since lastoctober, raw sugar has oscillated around 15cts/lb.It is almost 40 more than 3months ago! But will it last? It is hard to say, as positive and negative news has been quite balanced over the last few days, providing a highly volatile pattern: -Alltheanalystsestimatethat willbeindeficit(as mayalsobe) butwillitbeenoughcomparedtoourhugestocks? -TheimpactofElNiñoisalreadystrong butarespeculatorsoverestimatingit?theyarehistoricallynetbuyers(seep.2),isn tittoohigh, and won t the reversal be violent? And currencies are back in the game especially over the very last few days. Although November was quiet for the Real, the Brazilian has just collapsed again towards 3.85Real/US$. The Euro also depressed by around 3(p.7). Whitesugarhascomebacktoover400US$,ahighsincelastJanuary,providingaslightlyincreasingwhitepremiumataround75US$(p.3). Oilhasdecreasedagain, and the Brenthas reached 45US$per barrel. InUS, ethanol and gasolineareat alowest whereas fiscalincentives haveboostedthebrazilianones(p.4).cerealshavenotbenefitedfromthesugarrenewal(p.5),andfreighthasremainedverylow(p.8). White sugar (sugar#5, London, $/t) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, cts/lb) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, $/t) Settling date Dec ,6 406,1 5,5 1,4 Mar ,4 407,6 3,1 0,8 May ,1 407,4 2,3 0,6 Aug ,4 407,6 4,2 1,0 Mar 16 14,89 15,04 0,15 1,0 May 16 14,52 14,66 0,13 0,9 Jul 16 14,23 14,37 0,13 0,9 Oct 16 14,27 14,40 0,13 0,9 Mar ,3 331,6 3,26 1,0 May ,2 323,1 3,0 0,9 Jul ,8 316,8 3,0 0,9 Oct ,6 317,5 3,0 0,9 Premium Dec 15/Mar 16 72,3 74,5 2,3 3, Raw & White sugar over the month (daily price according to term T, US$/t) /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/2015 Raw-T1 Raw-T2 Raw-T3 Raw-T4 White-T1 White-T2 White-T3 White-T4 Sugar#11 and #5 prices since January 2010 front term, US$/t $800 $700 $600 $ $400 $300 $ Raw sugar, NY White Sugar, London FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 1
2 Sugar #11 and #5 : open interest & non-commercial operators positions White sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Dec 15 Mar 16 May 16 Aug 16 0 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Term White sugar (sugar#5, London, 1lot=50t) Average weekly open interest per term (x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, 1lot=112,000lb=50.8t) number number T1 33,5 39,1 5,6 16,8 446,7 429,6-17,0-3,8 T2 18,0 16,7-1,3-7,2 142,1 164,0 21,9 15,4 T3 8,2 9,3 1,1 13,7 101,3 114,1 12,8 12,6 T4 4,1 4,8 0,8 18,3 69,8 75,0 5,2 7,4 Total 79,0 73,3-5,7-7,3 821,9 856,4 34,5 4,2 Net position of speculators on sugar#11 in New-York & front term prices Net position of speculators, x1,000 lots /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ Sugar#11 price, cts/lb Net position of speculators (non-commercial operators) Sugar #11 price FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 2
3 Sugar #11 : premium compared to Sugar#5 and prices in local currencies Front term white premium since January 2010 Front term, US$/t Price Changes since January 2010 Front term, in local currencies, from a Basis on the 01/01/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/2016 US$ Australian $ Br. Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Baht South Afri. Rand Nota: Russian Rouble left the graph in Dec (index>130) and came back between March and October 2015 Currency US $ Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand Sugar#11 Front term 328,31 331,57 3,26 1,0 460,13 459,14-0,99-0, , ,90-8,04-0, , ,43 36,78 1,8 300,84 312,11 11,27 3, , ,88 456,33 2, , ,96 52,82 1, , ,90 819,99 3, , ,87 167,10 1, , ,48 125,97 2,8 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 3
4 Energy markets : ethanol, crude oil & gazoline 130,00 Crude oil prices since January 2010 US$/barrel 110,00 90,00 70,00 50,00 30,00 WTI (New-York, US market) Brent (London, 2/3 of petrol exchanges) 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 Focus on BRAZIL : Ethanol in Sao Paulo since January 2010 Price Ex-distillery, Real/l Anhydrous Hydrous 1,10 Focus on USA : Ethanol & Gazoline prices since January 2010 Front term CBOT (Ethanol) & RBOB (Gazoline), US$/l 0,90 0,70 0,50 0,30 Gazoline Ethanol Oil 45,97 42,48-3,49-7,6 48,66 45,49-3,17-6,5 Gazoline RBOB, US$/l 0,37 0,36-0,01-1,6 Ethanol In Brazil (ex. dist.) In USA (CBOT) In Europe (T2 Rtdam) WTI, US$/barrel Brent, US$/barrel Real/l (Anh., S. Paulo) Real/l (Hydr., Sao Paulo) US$/gal US$/l /l US$/l value 1,91 1,98 0,07 3,8 1,70 1,72 0,02 0,9 1,53 1,49-0,04 0,40 0,39-0,01 0,60 0,64 0,04 7,1 0,66 0,68 0,03 3,9 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 4-2,5
5 Grain markets : corn, soybeans, wheat, HFCS HFCS-55 in US Midwest market, Monthly from USDA, in US$/t dry weight Dry HFCS 55 monthly Price in USA October-14 October-15 US$/t 722,69 780,00 7,9 cts/lb 32,79 35, Grains and sugar#11 prices since January 2010 Front term, in US$/t Wheat (CBOT) Corn (CBOT) Soy (CBOT) Sugar#11 Corn Soy Wheat Front term (CBOT) US$/t 148,39 143,51-4,88 cts/bsl 376,92 364,52-12,40 US$/t 321,61 319,73-1,88 cts/bsl 875,36 870,24-5,12 US$/t 191,05 176,59-14,46 cts/bsl 520,00 480,64-39,36-3,3-0,6-7,6 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 5
6 By-products : molasses and beet pulps 400 Cane molasses and beet pulp since January 2010 In France and Netherlands, ex-tank, in US$/t Pulp in NL (LIE) Pulp in France (ARTB) Molasses ex-tank Amsterdam (LEI) By-products prices September-15 October-15 Beet pulp pellets NL France Cane molasses (ex-tank Amsterdam) US$/t 207,77,39-7,38-3,6 /t 185,05 176,40-8,65-4,7 US$/t 180,21 179,49-0,72-0,4 /t 160,50 158,00-2,50-1,6 US$/t 190,43 189,88-0,54-0,3 /t 169,60 167,15-2,45-1,4 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 6
7 Exchange rates 110 Currency changes, compared to US$, since January 2013 Weekly based, basis on the first week of /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/2016 Australian Dollar Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South-African Rand Value, in US$, of the Currency Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand 0,7135 0,7222 0,0086 1,2 0,2629 0,2672 0,0043 1,6 0,1579 0,1567-0,0012-0,8 1,0913 1,0624-0,0289-2,7 0,0152 0,0151-0,0002-1,1 0,0604 0,0604 0,0000 0,0 0,0157 0,0152-0,0004-2,8 0,0281 0,0280-0,0001-0,4 0,0720 0,0707-0,0012-1,7 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 7
8 Freight : Baltic indexes 3 Freight indexes since January Baltic Dry Panamax Capesize Supramax (the most used in Sugar) Freight index (Baltic) Index Baltic Dry Baltic Supramax Baltic Panamax Baltic Capesize index ,0 Fertilizers prices since January 2010 World bank, in US$/t 600,0,0 400,0 300,0,0,0 0,0 DAP Phosphate Rock Potassium Chloride TSP Urea DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf Phosphate rock (Moroccan), 70 BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver TSP (triple superphosphate), up to September 6 bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf; from October 6 onwards Tunisian, granular, f.o.b. Urea (Black Sea), bulk, spot, for (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe; 1991 (July) onwards f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 8
9 Market overview : the grower dashboard Sugar Sugar#11 Difference cts/lb 14,89 15,04 0,15 US$/t 328,31 331,57 3,26 1,0 Sugar#5 US$/t 400,58 406,10 5,52 1,4 Grains Ethanol cts/bsl 376,92 364,52-12,40 US$/t 148,39 143,51-4,88 cts/bsl 875,36 870,24-5,12 US$/t 321,61 319,73-1,88 cts/bsl 520,00 480,64-39,36 US$/t 191,05 176,59-14,46-3,3-0,6-7,6 /l 0,60 0,64 0,04 7,1 US$/l 0,66 0,68 0,03 3,9 US US$/l 0,40 0,39-0,01-2,5 Brazil Anydr. US$/l 1,91 1,98 0,07 3,8 Oil Brent US$/barrel 48,66 45,49-3,17-6,5 Freight Supramax Index ,6 Brazilian Currency Corn (CBOT) Soybeans (CBOT) Wheat (CBOT) EU spot Value of 1 Real US$ 0,2629 0,2672 0,0043 1,6 Value of 1 US$ Real 3,804 3,742-0,062-1,6 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 9
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