FINANCING IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Transcription

1 FINANCING IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 1. INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS International Bond Markets The bond market (debt, credit, or fixed income market) is the financial market where participants buy and sell debt securities, usually bonds. Size of the world bond market ( 14 debt outstanding): USD 109 trillion. - U.S. bond market debt: USD 37 trillion (38%). Organization - Decentralized, OTC market, with brokers and dealers. - Small issues may be traded in exchanges. - Daily trading volume in the U.S.: USD 822 billion - Government debt dominates the market. - Used to indicate the shape of the yield curve. 1

2 Evolution of Global Bond Market: It used to be dominated by U.S. issues. Now, EM play a significant role. Typical Bond Market: Canada Dominated by government issues. 2

3 The world bond market is divided into three segments: - Domestic bonds: Issued locally by a domestic borrower. Usually denominated in the local currency. Largest segment: 71% of the bond market (2008). - Foreign bonds: Issued on a local market by a foreign borrower. Usually denominated in the local currency. - Eurobonds: Placed mainly in countries other than the one in whose currency the bond is denominated. Example: Distinction between bond markets. (A) Domestic bonds. In February 2015, Apple, the U.S. tech giant, issued bonds for USD 6.5B in the U.S. for placement in the U.S. domestic market. (B) Foreign bonds. In August 2015, Apple issued bonds for AUD 2.25B for placement in the Aussie market alone. (C) Eurobonds. In September 2015, Apple issued bonds for EUR 2.8B in London. The issue was underwritten by an international syndicate of securities houses, led by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Foreign bond and Eurobond markets = International Bond Market. 3

4 Eurobond Issuances by U.S. Companies International debt issuance is close to 12% of total debt issuance by U.S. companies. Type of Instruments Popular Instruments in International Bond Markets i. Straight or fixed income bonds. (Most common type, by far) ii. Partly paid bonds. iii. Zero-coupon bonds. (Not very popular with investors) iv. Floating rate notes (FRNs). (Second most common type) v. Perpetual FRNs. vi. Convertible bonds. vii. Bonds with warrants. viii.dual-currency bonds. 4

5 Example: Straight bond 4.375% May 2015 Slovak Republic EUR bond Amount = EUR 2 billion Issue date = May Face value: F = EUR 1,000 Coupon: C = 4.375% = EUR Maturity = 6 years (May 2015) Interest payment dates: May 14 Every May 14, the Slovak Republic pays EUR to bondholders, for 6 years. At maturity, May 14, 2015 it also pays back the principal. Tombstone of Slovak Republic s Eurobond 5

6 4/2/2018 Example: Zero-coupon bonds ("zeros"). Zero June 1984 PepsiCo Overseas USD bond Amount = USD 100 million. Issue date = June 1981 Maturity = June 1984 (3 years) Face value: F = USD 100 Coupon: C = 0. Issue Price = Compounded annual interest yield: (100/67.25)1/3-1 = 14.14% Example: FRNs ("floaters"). LIBOR + 1/8 March 2024 Swedish Government USD bond. Amount = USD 500 million. Issue date = March Maturity = March 1, 2024 (40 years). Face value: F = USD 1000 Coupon: C = 6-mo. LIBOR + 1/8 Interest payment dates: March 1 and September 1 At the time the notes were offered (3/84), 6-mo. LIBOR was 10(7/16)% First Coupon = 10(7/16)% + (1/8)% = 10(9/16)% (known at issue). Afterward, at the end of each 6-mo. period the interest rate on the notes is updated to reflect the current 6-mo. LIBOR rate for dollars. 6

7 Example: Convertible bonds ("convertibles"). 8% May 2002 Cantim (a Canadian firm) convertible USD eurobond. Amount: USD 100 million Issue date = May 1995 Maturity: May 2002 (7 years) F = USD 1000 C = 8%. Conversion price = CAD Conversion S t = CAD/USD Conversion period: Any time after first interest payment Principal is convertible into Cantim common stock at a conversion price per share of CAD , where each USD of face value would be convertible to CAD at a fixed exchange rate of CAD/USD. Each bond can buy shares. (A bond + call option.) Example: Bonds with equity warrants. 4% May 1995 Cannon Euro-USD bonds with equity warrants attached. Amount: USD 370 million. Maturity: May 31, 1995 (5 years). F = USD 5,000 C = 4% Number of warrants: 74,000 Warrants per bond: 1 Shares per warrant: Exercise price: JPY 1487 Conversion S t : JPY/USD Exercise period: At any time after the first interest payment => Almost all Japanese Euro-USD bond with equity warrant attached (USD Eurowarrants) have similar terms. 7

8 Example: Dual-currency bonds. Note: Dual-currency bonds are purchased in terms of one currency but pay coupons or repay principal at maturity in terms of a second currency. 10% July 1995 First City Financial CHF Eurobond. Maturity = July 1995 (10 years). F = CHF 5,000. C = 10% (=CHF 500). Feature = At maturity, the bond is repaid in the amount of USD 2,800. At the time of the issue, this bond represented a combination of (a) a 10-year CHF bond that repays principal: CHF (b) a 10-year forward contract to buy USD 2800 at CHF/USD = (CHF 5000/USD 2800 = S 7/01/95 = CHF/USD). More on Dual Currency Bonds. Japanese firms have frequently issued CHF denominated bonds convertible into common shares of a Japanese company. A foreign investor can benefit from purchasing this bond: - a drop in the market interest rate on CHF bonds; - a rise in the price of the company's stock; or - a rise in the JPY against to the CHF. Dual currency bonds represent a combination of an ordinary bond combined with one or more forward contracts. 8

9 Eurobond Markets Euro-what? Euro-zzz: The currency of denomination of the zzz instrument is not the official currency of the country where the transaction takes place. Example: A Malayan firm deposits USD not in the U.S. but with a bank outside the U.S., for example in Singapore or in Switzerland. Euromarket - Offshore money market - Low costs and lack of regulations - Instruments traded in any currency. The Eurobond market is just one segment of the Euromarket. Birth and Development of Euromarkets - Decline of the GBP - Rise of the USD as the international currency - Cold war forced Russia to deposit USD not in the U.S. - EEC allowed financial deregulation More important: - Interest Equalization Tax (IET) (1963) - Foreign Credit Restraint Program (1965) - Foreign Investment Program (1968) These restrictions brought the major financial institutions to European money centers like London, Zurich, and Luxembourg. 9

10 Characteristics of Eurobonds A Eurobond is an international debt security. Structure: Similar to the standard debt security used in domestic markets. Basic characteristics: - Eurobonds are transferable (usually, bearer). - Eurobonds are intended to be tradable. - Eurobonds are a medium- to long-term debt security. - Eurobonds are generally launched through a public offering. - Eurobonds are generally listed on a stock exchange. Transferability should be simple: - Bearer bond (you have it, its yours) - Registered bond (your name should be in a book to own the bond) the majority of Eurobonds are bearer bonds. Attractive characteristic of Eurobond markets for issuers: The Eurobond and foreign bond markets seem to be segmented. Example: The World Bank has issued in the U.S. foreign bond market and in Euromarkets. Issues of similar maturity have yielded 10 to 20 bps less. Usual explanation: No requirement of registered form for Eurobond. Formal characteristics of Eurobonds: No different from domestic or foreign bonds. The structure of the underwriting syndicate is the main difference between other bonds and Eurobonds. 10

11 Issue Procedures Organization of a Traditional Eurobond Syndicate Eurobonds are issued and sold through underwriting syndicates. Participants in these syndicates are investment banks: Players: - lead manager (organizes the managing group). - managing group (buys the bonds). - underwriters (commitment to buy ahead of time at a set price). - selling group (no commitment to buy at a set minimum price). - principal agent (responsible for receiving and making payments). - fiscal agent and trustee (represent the borrower and bondholders respectively). Roles in a Eurobond syndicate are nested: Managers are also underwriters and sellers, and underwriters are usually also sellers. Roles in a Eurobond syndicate are nested: Managers are also underwriters and sellers, and underwriters are usually also sellers. 11

12 Selecting a Lead Manager Market for Lead Managers is very competitive. The selection of a professional issuing house to lead-manage the issues is a critical decision for the borrower. Factors: - Established relations -Price - Market making ability - Coordination of the syndicate - Derivatives products The advantage of a Eurobond issue may not be the cost: It may be preferred in terms of longer maturities, early call options, issue sizes, etc. Euromoney Market: Lead Managers in 2016 (from Euromoney Survey) 12

13 Fee Structure for new Eurobond Issues Fees: Extracted by discounts on the prices provided to syndicate. Example: A French company issues USD 1,000 bonds at 100 (100% of FV, "par"). Managing group pays the borrower USD 975 for each USD 1,000 bond. The USD 25 discount (2.5%) is the flotation cost. Syndicate members really receive the full flotation cost if the bonds are actually sold to retail at the issue price. This might not happen. Reasons: - unenforceable contracts. - competition. - price discrimination. Example: Lead manager pays borrower USD 975 per USD 1,000 bond. Lead manager makes bonds available to underwriters at USD 980 Lead manager makes bonds available to sellers at USD 985 $1,000 - $975 = $25 "Flotation cost" or "spread" (100% of spread) $1,000 - $985 = $15 "Selling concession" (60% of spread) $985 - $980 = $5 "Underwriting allowance" (20% of spread) $980 - $975 = $5 "Management fee" (20% of spread) Typical spread for USD Eurobonds: - 2% for issues ten years or longer. - Less than 2% for shorter maturities. 13

14 Traditional Time Schedule for a New Offering Gray Market A seller knows she will receive bonds at a 1.5% discount: "I am getting a discount of 1.5% on a certain number of bonds." "I could sell these now for 1%, I would lock in a.5% profit." "I could avoid the risk that interest rates (and bond prices!) will change." The bonds themselves (and the terms!) are not yet in formal existence. This pre-market is the gray market (or grey ). Bonds trade in the gray market at a discount on the future (yetunknown) issue price. Example: A price of "less 1" would mean a price of if the bonds are issued at A USD 1,000 bond would then be exchanged between the two parties for 98.75% of its face value, or USD => The gray market -or forward- price represents the price at which potential demand is brought into equilibrium with potential supply. 14

15 Variations on Issuing Procedure Bought deal (lead manager buys the entire bond issue at set terms). Example: In April 1980, CSFB bought an entire USD 100 million issue overnight from GMAC. Auction issue, (the borrower announces the maturity and the coupon rate of a new bond issue and invites investors to submit bids). It eliminates management fees and the costs of syndication. Auction systems are popular domestically: government securities. Example: The Peruvian Central Bank announces an issue of 100,000 USD 1, % Treasury Bonds with a maturity of 1 year. GMAC bids 95.3 percent for an amount of 30,000. Cut-off rate: 95.0 (all offers above 95.0 are accepted). GMAC pays USD 28,590,000 for the bonds. Fixed price reoffer (FPRO): Lead manager and co-managers sign a contract obligating them not to discount fees. It is the way bonds are underwritten in the U.S. domestic market. 20% of new eurobonds are issued under FPRO terms. Typical spreads are (5/16) to (3/8) percent instead of 2 percent. 15

16 U.S. Legal Aspects of Eurodollar Bond Issues U.S. authorities do not attempt to control the issuing of USDdenominated eurobonds by foreigners. U.S. regulations affect the management and sale of USD eurobonds. Only U.S. investment banks get involved in USD Eurobond issues. U.S. banks can participate in Eurobond issuing syndicates only if they guarantee that U.S. investors cannot purchase the bonds. A Eurobond offering could be structured to fall under the "private placement" exemption of the Securities Act of Then it can be sold to U.S. nationals at issue. But, this exemption applies when the purchasers of the bonds meet the following features: 1. They are limited in number. 2. They are "sophisticated." 3. They are able to bear the loss if the bond issuer defaults. 4. They purchase bonds as principals (i.e., not for resale). 5. They have access to information similar to that which would be contained in a registered offering prospectus. In 1984, the U.S. government deregulated bond and money markets: - No U.S. withholding tax on payments to foreigners who hold U.S. government or corporate bonds. - U.S. corporations are allowed to issue bearer bonds directly to non-u.s. residents. 16

17 Eurobond secondary market The secondary bonds market handles the reselling of bonds by investors. - It is almost entirely an OTC market. Most trades are conducted on closed, proprietary bond-trading systems or via phone. - It is self-regulated. Participants follow ICMA s market conventions and standards. ICMA: International Capital Market Association => The ICMA is similar to the U.S. NASD. ICMA ICMA has over 400 members, located in over 50 countries. Majority of the members are in the U.K. (more than 50%), the U.S. and Luxembourg. ICMA s History - In 1968, Eurobond dealers created the AIBD (Association of International Bond Dealers). - In 1991, the AIBD was reorganized into the International Securities Market Association (ISMA), which is based in Zurich. - In 2005, the ISMA and International Primary Market Association merged to become the ICMA. Public Eurobond issues are listed on one or more stock exchanges. The principal exchanges for issues are Luxembourg and London. European currency issues tend to be listed on the home exchange. There is no legal obligation to deal on the exchanges: OTC market. 17

18 Microstructure Market-makers and dealers in Eurobonds are members of the ICMA. A market-maker quotes a net bid-ask price (no commissions charged). Bid-ask spreads on Eurobonds are around.50% (USD and EUR domestic spreads close to.10%). Settlement takes place on the value date, approximately a week later. Standard-size transaction is 100 bonds (with USD 1000 of face value). Quoted prices apply to standard-size transactions, smaller transactions are negotiated at higher spread costs. Two international securities clearing systems (now linked): - Euroclear was the first, set up in Brussels (1968). - Clearstream, first established in Luxembourg (1970). Liquidity problems For certain issues, liquidity is still a big problem. - Not a problem of unreliable market making. - Problem: poor access to established and liquid bond markets. It is estimated that 50% of the yield premium is due to a liquidity premium. Issuers take liquidity considerations into account: The bigger the size of the issue, the more liquid in the secondary market: Issues tend to have sizes larger than USD 50 million equivalent. Mega issues (bigger than USD 1B) are common (10% of total) Example: In September 2013, Verizon issued a USD 15B 30-year bond & a USD 11B 10-year bond. But, price impact (due to the big size) is a problem for Mega issues! 18

19 Foreign Bond Markets Yankee Bonds It used to be the largest and most important foreign bond market. Yankee bonds must be registered under the Securities Act of Yankees issues are usually rated by a bond rating agency. There is no withholding tax on coupon payments to foreigners. The secondary market for Yankee bonds is more liquid than that for USD Eurobonds and bid/ask spreads are smaller. German Eurobonds and German Foreign Bonds Investment banking and commercial banking are not separated. International EUR bond market is dominated by German banks. A German Eurobond is legally the same as a German foreign bond. Samurai Bonds and JPY Eurobonds Japanese and non-japanese corporations make public Euroyen issues. Foreign banks are allowed to serve as lead managers. Swiss Franc International Bonds Government does not allow issues in CHF outside Switzerland. Switzerland has the largest foreign bond market in the world. Common scenario: Foreign savers lend to foreign borrowers in CHF. Swiss foreign bonds are bearer bonds and have annual coupons. 19

20 Differences Among Bond Markets Issuing Techniques Domestic bonds: Issued by a syndicate of national banks. Eurobonds: Issued through an international syndicate. Dealing U.S. domestic market: European bond markets: Japan bond market: Eurobond market: OTC with some bonds listed (NYSE). Market makers and brokers. Exchange markets. OTC for non-government bonds. Brokers. OTC and Exchange markets. Brokers. OTC. Few transactions go through the exchange. Differences Among Bond Markets US Market Non-US Market Eurobond Market Regulation Yes (SEC) Yes (Local SEC) No (Informal Rules) Disclosure High (regulated) Varies (according to local SEC) Usual Market Practices Issuing cost 0.75%-1% Varies (1%-4%) 1.5%-2.5% Speed of issue Slow: 2-4 weeks. Varies. Fast: 14 days or less Currency USD, but no restrictions. Usually local, but with some restrictions. Any. No restrictions. Rating? Yes Varies. Not required, but it is common. Bearer Bonds? No In general, no. Yes. Listing? Some (NYSE). Many. Very Rare. Liquidity Very liquid. Varies, according to size. Not very liquid. 20

21 Quotations Bonds are usually quoted: Cash price = Quoted price + Accrued Interest. Exception: U.K. bonds (gilts) with more than five years to maturity. Cash price = Quoted price. Accrued Interest Bonds also differ in the way accrued interest is calculated. Example: U.S. An investor holding a U.S. straight bond for February 1995 receives 30/360 or 1/12 of the annual coupons (1/6 of the semiannual coupon). Example: Japan An investor holding a Japanese straight bond for February 1995 will receive 28/365 of the annual coupon. Yields Financial institutions around the world calculate YTM on bonds. The methods differ across countries YTM are not comparable. Europe: Annual actuarial YTM using the ICMA-recommended formula. U.S.: Institutions publish a semiannual actuarial yield. Example: 12% 2010 IBM USD bond - U.S.: it pays USD 6% semiannually and it has a YTM of 12% (s.a.). - Europe: it has a (annual) YTM of 12.36% = (1.06)(1.06) =

22 Yields (continuation) Japan: Tend to report YTM based on simple-interest calculation: Yield = (Coupon rate P ) x 100, Years to maturity P where P is the current price of the bond. This simple yield understates the true YTM for bonds priced over par and overstates the yield for bonds priced below par. Example: A Japanese bond with: Years to maturity: 5 years. C = 12%. P = 95. Yield (for a Japanese financial institution) = Some Legal Aspects Bonds are issued in either bearer or registered forms. - Eurobonds: The bearer of a bond is assumed its legal owner. - U.S.: owners must be registered in the books of the issuer. Coupons are usually paid annually on markets where straight bonds are issued in bearer form (cost reasons): - Eurobond coupons in all currencies are paid this way. - U.S. coupons are paid semiannually. Today, the majority of Eurobond are owned in electronic, rather than physical form. Coupons are paid electronically via the clearing system to (Euroclear and Clearstream) the holder of the Eurobond. 22

23 Why Invest in International Bonds? Diversification => International bonds have lower correlations than domestic bond correlations: Efficient frontier moves NW Example: The correlation between monthly U.S. investment grade bond returns (using the Lehman Brothers index) range from about 0.87 to Government bond returns correlations of Canada with all European countries is close to.50, while the Canada-U.S correlation is (Monthly bond returns measured in local currencies from ).) Note: But, bond correlations are bigger than stock market correlations. Correlations change depending on the base currency local or common currency. Example: France and Germany government bond monthly returns have a.87 correlation in local currency, but a.96 correlation if returns are translated into USD. => If you are looking to diversify, higher benefits will be obtained by investing in bonds with no hedging! 23

24 Bond Return Correlation: Germany and France Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 2-yr R olling C orrel Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Bond (USD) Return Correlation: Germany and France y r R olling C orre l Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Unhedged Efficient Frontiers with Selected Government Bond Unconstrained Efficient Frontier With Riskless Asset (Unhedged) 30% 25% Expected Return 20% 15% 10% USD CAD DEM ITL FRF JPY GBP 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Standard Deviation 24

25 Hedged Efficient Frontiers with Selected Government Bond Unconstrained Efficient Frontier Without Riskless Asset (Hedged) 30% 25% Expected Return 20% 15% 10% CAD FRF DEM ITL JPY USD GBP 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Standard Deviation 25