Brava Stephanie Pomboy!
|
|
- Blake Copeland
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 May 30, 2014 Brava Stephanie Pomboy! Barron s May 26 features a brilliant interview with Stephanie Pomboy - the economist, founder of New York s MacroMavens. I have admired Stephanie s impeccable logic in Barron s introduced in Alan Abelson s former column Up and Down Wall Street. I liken the economy to a car on a flat road that has no momentum. When you take your foot off the gas, the car just stops moving. That s essentially what the Fed is doing -Stephanie Pomboy To sharpen your investment acumen, I suggest you assimilate her insights. Even for those fortunate to have a facility with Elliott, Stephanie s fundamental insights add a third dimension to our Elliott charts, so that you can explain the fundamentals to others. Only when you re able to elucidate something to others do you begin to really understand it. Stephanie s conclusion: The economy cannot withstand the taper, unless Fed reverses (the gradual decrease monthly T-bond purchases), both the economy & the Market will falter. Symptoms of QE: Spending much more to maintain lifestyle As Pomboy points out, the impact of quantitative easing has been highly underestimated, and therefore the consequences of the taper are far greater than currently estimated. She makes her point with hard evidence: of the $25 trillion Page 1 of 8
2 household net-worth amassed since March 2009, financial assets accounted for $21 trillion (84%), and real estate accounts for just $3 trillion (12%). Consumer Spending not responding Rather than stimulating a commensurate increase in consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP, consumer spending continues to decelerate. What s more, anemic spending increases result from higher prices, rather than increased demand or higher unit sales. According to Pomboy, 90% of the post crisis spending increase is directly related to inflation. Rather intent on upgrading their lifestyles to consume more, people are simply spending more to maintain the same living standards. Stephanie further points-out distorted employment data, which implies job creation, rather than under-employed workers, holding multiple part-time jobs, out of necessity. Limitations of worshiping at the Fundamental Altar Although Stephanie admits having missing the run-up in risk assets against a backdrop of weakening growth, she points to her unwavering faith in the Fundamentals, which must be eventually vindicated. 1 Interest rates: the cost of money, must rise to compensate for the taper By presenting the raw data, Pomboy lets us arrive at your own conclusions. The US Government s $40bn monthly deficit spending is no longer being subsidized by foreign Treasury purchases. Flows of foreign capital into US Treasuries have been dramatically cut-back from $24bn per month three years ago, to the current $8bn. If the taper continues to reduce the T-bond purchases at $10bn per month, the current demand deficit of $32bn per month can only widen. Our interpretation, consistent with a reconciliation of the Elliott bond & stock charts: the taper s resulting reduction in T- Bonds purchases, compounded by waning foreign demand will collapse Bond prices below the January lows. Page 2 of 8
3 Below the inverse relationship between Stocks & Bonds - Risk-on; Risk-off Groupthink; linear in either direction Pomboy assurances, that there s no material long-term upside risk to Treasury yields, epitomizes the Bull Market Groupthink. In a Bear Market, there s a definite edge to trading an accurate Elliott forecast, & incremental profit to be made from frequent intermediate-term swings of the market pendulum. From January s near universal conviction that interest rates could go nowhere but up, now that rates plummeted, the consensus expects rates to continue dropping. However, rather than the capital-gain bargains T-Bonds were in January, (year-to-date, long Bonds are tied for 1 st place performance with bond-like utilities, among all asset classes) Bonds have swung to the opposite extreme, becoming highly overvalued & overbought, which makes them relatively risky and prone to losses. Page 3 of 8
4 In the a-b-c corrective diagram above, bond prices are peaking at wave a. In the next swing of the pendulum from risk-off to risk-on, a sucker s rally in stocks will see bonds dumped for higher returns perceived in stocks. From here, bonds will drop to trough in wave b, concurrent with a corresponding waves a & c peaks in stocks. Before bounce completes risk-on/risk-off will likely reverse twice The Diag II is a prelude to, and an integral part of wave 1, omnidirectionally at all degrees of trend. Finally, as stocks go into free-fall, panic will drive money flow back into safe haven bonds. Bond prices should Spike, likely exceeding twice the current 13% premium, as 10-year yield drops to 1.8%, and the coupon on 30-year long bond plummets to 2.4%. Primitive Herding persists Human herding instincts closely resemble those of the Wildebeest, who s stampede erratically shifts direction, depending on gusts of wind which carry predators scent. To close-in on an ambush, Lions create the panic, resulting in the herd scattering, leaving the young and weak vulnerable to serve as lions feast. Page 4 of 8
5 Reversing positions optimally to maximize profit In Stocks vs Bonds diagram above, the sum of a, b & c price trajectories compound returns faster than any other strategy. This requires two reversals which few can maneuver. Holding results in giving back at least 2/3 of the wave-a profit at b, in order to capture wave c. Most linearly projecting investors will not know to get out at c, and end up yet again, giving back the profit. In the TLT bond chart below, the ending Spike from the Diag > is highlighted in green. A head fake, like the rise in bond prices since January is nearly always reversed at least once. Contrary to Wall Street pedestrian wisdom, trees do occasionally grow to the sky, but only after bending all the way back to create a catapult effect. Catching the high is just as tricky, although the high will likely reach 125, we will likely begin scaling-out at 120. Fundamentals & Technicals concur in a high degree of certainty In the May 24 th Market Letter I presented a different perspective: that rising stock prices would result in Treasuries being dumped for greener pastures in equities. Stephanie Page 5 of 8
6 Pomboy s T-bond demand deficit resulting from the Fed s taper concurs via a fundamental logic. When the Fundamentals & Technicals independently arrive at the same conclusion, the agreed end-result becomes most likely, adding a high degree of certainty. Although I heartily agree with most of Pomboy s interpretations, in my opinion she remains far too idealistic. Just as the tides can never be reversed, and night follows day, there s no preventing the Bust on the same scale as the previous Boom. The longest Bull Market in History requires a colossal Market free-fall coinciding with an acute deflationary spiral. Only economic incentives aligned with Human Nature succeed Stimulus, like all incentives, only works when it magnifies the innate, Human Nature & the profit-motive. Corporate Insiders invest collectively in productivity-enhancing plant & equipment, when they can sense the payoff. Only when the consensus of insider buying concurs in economic expansion with its own money, by buying dollar sums of 30:1 and 40:1 versus sales of company stock, does the collective corporate intelligence confirm economic expansion. Meanwhile, reckless attempts to improve Human Nature, whether sourced in the Utopian ideals of Karl Marxist, or John Maynard Keynes can never work Human Nature is incorrigible. In a Bear Market, simulative incentives are highly incongruent with essential Human Nature & its fundamental profit motive. Such unprecedented, forced attempts to manipulate the Boom/Bust Cycle have merely kicked the Depression down the road at an enormous cost. Interest on the deficit, resulting from Fiscal Stimulus continues to compound the National Debt far faster than GDP growth. When insider sales have consistently outnumbered buys at 30:1 for months, and gone as high as 60:1, stimulatory incentives are megalomaniac delusions. Like Greenspan & Bernanke, before her, Empress Yellen has no clothes! Stimulus is an irresponsible misallocation of precious resources, which merely postpone rather than reverse the inevitable Bust, at Page 6 of 8
7 a huge cost to society, while magnifying the misery and duration of the inevitable Depression. Monetary stimulus debases the currency, along with all dollar denominated assets, (this is precisely why Commodities will have one more Bear Market Rally) lowering living standards for generations. Regardless Fed action, we are confronted with a Bear Market Plunge in Footnotes 1 Fundamentals are arguably far less valuable for timing trades to the swing of the market pendulum; to optimally compound returns, we lock-in profits with each swing of the pendulum, to capture a far greater price trajectory as compounding profit, the alternative presumes a smooth, gradually climbing Bull Market. Bear Market are instead characterized by highly magnified roughness, precisely the opposite, often gives back the entire profit several times. The diagram below demonstrates the much higher returns of accumulating profit from the entire trajectory: a+b+c rather than a-b+c. Page 7 of 8
8 If you subscribe to Stockcharts, please vote daily your vote is critical, this link will take you directly to our page you have 3 votes daily. Eduardo Mirahyes Page 8 of 8
Bearish Diag II - the example of Crude OIL
Sunday January 11, 2015 Bearish Diag II - the example of Crude OIL After a 46% decline in 2014, nearly everyone expects oil to drop to $40/barrel from year-end price of $55. (this is an excellent example
More informationInvestment Tips for the current Bear Market
November 18, 2014 Investment Tips for the current Bear Market According to Jesse Livermore, most people don t want to study the market or invest intelligently, they just want tips to play the Market, in
More informationHas Oil Bottomed yet?
November 14, 2014 Has Oil Bottomed yet? Oil has bottomed intermediate-term. The next move is a bounce to the area of at least $100/barrel within a span of ~12 months. Once that upside completes, oil will
More informationIn a super-sized Bear Market, a Bull Market mindset is Insane
August 9, 2014 In a super-sized Bear Market, a Bull Market mindset is Insane After 14 years of Supercycle Bear Market, the vast majority of investors persist in a Bull Market Mindset. Despite foreshadowing
More informationImplications of the peaking dollar on US Stock & Bonds
August 29, 2014 Implications of the peaking dollar on US Stock & Bonds Dollar plunges against every major currency The US Dollar is peaking intermediate-term, the implications of its subsequent dramatic
More informationAs in Music, to Time the Market, you ve got to keep the beat all the time
January 26, 2014, revised January 27 As in Music, to Time the Market, you ve got to keep the beat all the time Question: I am confused, you are long inverse bonds, TMV, but show $TYX (30-year yield) dropping.
More informationGold has completed a long-term trough & is Ready to Soar! SPX reversing into a bounce Gold & SPX inversely correlated, with
Saturday, Nov 14, 2015 (revised Nov 15) Gold has completed a long-term trough & is Ready to Soar! SPX reversing into a bounce Gold & SPX inversely correlated, with a lag Figure #1 Spot Gold 2-hour In the
More informationThe Profit Potential in inverse funds
May 4, 2014 The Profit Potential in inverse funds Bubbles Burst in a Bang! Rather than the expected 3% earnings growth rate, we re in for the economic contraction consistent with a deflationary Depression.
More informationThis Market s Basic Fractal
October 5, 2013 This Market s Basic Fractal Since 2008 the fundamental Bear Market Fractal has been revealed as a Diag II, followed by waves a-b, and a long wave C ended March 2013, transcending two degrees
More informationFigure #1 Shanghai Stock Exchange vs. Greater Emerging Markets (left y-axis represents Emerging Markets index; right-most y-axis is China)
Market Letter April 21, 2013 A Synthetic Emerging Markets ETF x-china The Monthly, Big Picture Emerging Markets Chart in figure #1, shows a major divergence between China & the Emerging Markets. Figure
More informationVisual Evidence of a Dramatic Reversal into a Bear Market Free-fall
October 10, 2015 (revised Oct 12) Visual Evidence of a Dramatic Reversal into a Bear Market Free-fall Below you see the SPX in arithmetic scale since 1982, this was the only segment of Supercycle (III)
More informationSurveying The Commodity Carnage
Surveying The Commodity Carnage November 25, 2015 by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management Commodities and commodity stocks have been a disaster in recent years, but fortunately one that our
More informationSpotlight on the overvalued, debased US dollar, versus the value-priced uro s debut in a Supercycle Bull Market
March 28, 2015 Spotlight on the overvalued, debased US dollar, versus the value-priced uro s debut in a Supercycle Bull Market The strong dollar reflects the strength of the US economy Janet Yellen, March
More informationInverse ETFs & shorts are set to FLY!
Friday, Nov 6, 2015 Inverse ETFs & shorts are set to FLY! In the Big Picture Bear Market, you will note that bearish legs A & C since 2000, have initiated with this echoing Diag II, the same structure
More informationIrrational Exuberance
November 27, 2016 revised Nov 28 Irrational Exuberance from a historical perspective As demonstrated by a tripple bottom in the Bearish Dollar ETF, UDN, the Dollar is currently peaking. The realative strength
More informationThe Grand Supercycle Big Picture
January 5, 2013 In a Bear Market of colossal magnitude like the present, you are either a Bear or a fool. Exceptional Bear The Grand Supercycle Big Picture This piece deals with the Big Picture, at Grand
More informationThe Financial Sector
Brad Smith January 30, 2009 The Financial Sector Yield Curve The yield curve has maintained its steepness over the past sixth months and has continued to be depressed on both short and long ends. With
More informationTiming Matters a great deal
March 15, 2014 Timing Matters a great deal In Figure #1 you can witness magnitude-gearing properties that remain constant in Bull & Bear Markets, yet remain unrecognized by anyone else. These structures
More informationBarron s 2015 Forecasting Challenge pictorially answered in New-Wave Elliott
January 9, 2025 Barron s 2015 Forecasting Challenge pictorially answered in New-Wave Elliott 1. What will the Dow Industrials return in 2015, including dividends? A. Negative min initial plunge before
More informationNatural Gas from the Forest to the Trees
Feb 15, 2015 Natural Gas from the Forest to the Trees Below is the New-Wave Elliott analysis of Natural Gas from the Forest to the Trees. Unlike stocks, which reflect humanity s technological & cultural
More informationFigure #1 The US Market monthly (1900-present)
March 8, 2016 The Big Picture New-Wave Elliott Where we are, and where we re going Magnitude Transcends in two semi-log steps Why this Market Must Crash In figure #1 you see the US Market s price history
More informationBear Markets Rallies outlined in yellow
May 9, 2015 Bulls, Bears & Bear Market Rallies Chinese stocks are at a 7-year high, while the economy is shrinking. From 12% growth 5 years ago, now a 7% expansion seems highly optimistic. This is the
More informationMacroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools NINTH EDITION Chapter 14 The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy Learning Objectives 14.1 Explain the role of demand and supply in the money market.
More informationQE2 and its Consequences (Part II) By Ron Hera February 21, Hera Research, LLC
Hera Research, LLC 7205 Martin Way East, Suite 72 Olympia, WA 98516 U.S.A. +1 (360) 339-8541 phone +1 (360) 339-8542 fax http://www.heraresearch.com/ QE2 and its Consequences (Part II) By Ron Hera February
More informationBulls, Bears & Bear Market Rallies: a Global Perspective
December 7, 2015 (revised Dec. 9) Bulls, Bears & Bear Market Rallies: a Global Perspective Adapting to the Bear Market - Strategic Asset Allocation Swing Trading & Scaling-out Figure #1 Wave (B), the final
More informationThe Great Bull Market in Bonds Is Over What Comes Next? Introduction
The Great Bull Market in Bonds Is Over What Comes Next? Introduction November 2010 BY: JOHN L. SICA President, Meridian Capital Partners, Inc. In 2008, for the first time in 50 years, the 3.4% yield on
More informationGundlach: Treasuries will Rally When QE2 Ends
Gundlach: Treasuries will Rally When QE2 Ends April 19, 2011 by Robert Huebscher The bonds that PIMCO s Bill Gross sold to take a 3% short position in the Treasury market may have found a buyer in Doubleline
More informationPatterns Profits & Peace of Mind - Page 1-01/18/11
Published by TFNN, Corp. ~ 601 Cleveland Street, Ste 618 Clearwater, FL 33755 ~ 1-877-518-9190 ~ http://www.tfnn.com ~ Copyright 2010 ~ All Rights Reserved 01-18-11 In last week's letter, I mentioned how
More information3.14. The Link between Bonds and Stocks.
3.14. The Link between Bonds and Stocks. This chapter covers the important link between the bond and stock markets. It shows how the positive link between bond yields and stocks has existed over the last
More informationEconomic Fundamentals
CHAPTER 5 Economic Fundamentals INTRODUCTION Economics, put simply, is the study of shortages supply vs. demand. As the demand for a product or service rises, the price of those goods or services will
More informationThe Myth of Full Employment and Why the Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year
The Myth of Full Employment and Why the Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year By James Hickman Follow 04/14/16-12:12 PM EDT 1 Despite what you've heard, the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates again this
More informationCommodities reversal confirms the end of the risk trade rally
May 21, 2011 Commodities reversal confirms the end of the risk trade rally The drama we have witnessed over the last two weeks in commodities confirms the end of rally in risky assets, and the delusional
More informationChapter Four Business Cycles
Chapter Four Business Cycles BUSINESS CYCLES AND REASONS FOR BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS... 4-1 Recession Phase Deflation EXPANSION, OR RECOVERY, PHASE... 4-2 Peak Phase Unemployment Chapter Four Business Cycles
More informationFinancial Markets Perspective
Financial Markets Perspective 4101 Main Street, Suite C Hilton Head Island, SC 29926 843.342.3044 www.victoriacapitalus.com FUNDAMENTALS MATTER January 2014 A BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT ECONOMY Last
More informationNormalizing Monetary Policy
Normalizing Monetary Policy Martin Feldstein The current focus of Federal Reserve policy is on normalization of monetary policy that is, on increasing short-term interest rates and shrinking the size of
More informationJeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks
Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks December 7, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a senior
More informationEconomic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective
Economic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective White Paper RecessionProtect.com Whilst history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, so the saying goes.
More informationTHE FED AND ECONOMY. Fixed Income Commentary
Fixed Income Commentary Portfolio Strategies & Analytics Group June 15, 2009 Tom Wammack Institutional Fixed Income Director Portfolio Strategies & Analytics Group (615) 341-6020 twammack@rwbaird.com In
More informationOn My Radar: Recession Watch Keep an Eye on This Chart
On My Radar: Recession Watch Keep an Eye on This Chart April 27, 2015 by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. -
More information27 J a n u a r y V o l u m e b y G l a c i e r R e s e a r c h
FUNDS ON FRIDAY b y G l a c i e r R e s e a r c h 27 J a n u a r y 2 0 1 7 V o l u m e 8 9 4 Priced for perfection By Delphine Govender, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager and Mahomed Ibrahim,
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 329 Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit and Debased Money. October 15, Dollar Debasement Fears Mount
COMMENTARY NUMBER 329 Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit and Debased Money October 15, 2010 Dollar Debasement Fears Mount September Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.5% (SGS) Retail Sales Gain Reflected
More informationInvestment opportunities in the late-expansion stage of the business cycle
Late-expansion investing White paper Investment opportunities in the late-expansion stage of the business cycle Key highlights Economic expansions do not follow a timetable; they typically come to an end
More informationTo fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that
01_chap_murphy.qxd 10/24/03 2:06 PM Page 1 CHAPTER 1 A Review of the 1980s To fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that started in 1980, it s necessary to know something about the
More informationConsumer Price Index
The Return of Inflation? Yet another Fed meeting has now come and gone without a rate hike. As much as market participants continue to obsess over when the Fed will normalize interest rates, the Fed Funds
More informationOn Our Radar September 2015
On Our Radar September 2015 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite fell 6.56 percent, 6.25 percent, and 6.85 percent, respectively, in August, which was highlighted by a
More informationWhat Can Happen with Gold If the Dollar Collapses?
What Can Happen with Gold If the Dollar Collapses? December 4, 2012, 11:43 AM Today s essay is the first one in our two-part commentary on U.S. debt and the dollar collapse. On numerous occasions we have
More informationChannel the Capital to the Real Economy
Channel the Capital to the Real Economy China Liquidity Analysis February 2016 Fundamental structural issues in the Chinese economy is a theme we at Bin Yuan have discussed in past quarterly newsletters.
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments
U.S. Economic Outlook Recent developments Washington, D.C., 6 February 2018 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of Inés Bustillo, Director, ECLAC
More informationReconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance. Mickey D. Levy Blenheim Capital Management
Reconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance Mickey D. Levy Blenheim Capital Management Prepared for Shadow Open Market Committee September 20, 2013 Reconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance Mickey
More informationWhither the US equity markets?
APRIL 2013 c o r p o r a t e f i n a n c e p r a c t i c e Whither the US equity markets? The underlying drivers of performance suggest that over the long term, a dramatic decline in equity returns is
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationThe Hottest M&A Market Ever:
The Hottest M&A Market Ever: What You Should Do About It Keynote at the World Angel Investment Summit September 27, 2018 Toronto, Canada Basil Peters Early Exits 10 Years On Ten years ago when I wrote
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationMSCI EAFE (Developed Markets) 5.40% 18.23% US Dollar (DXY) -2.66% -9.20% MSCI Emerging Markets 7.89% 25.42% Euro (FXE) 3.28% 11.
ROSELINE CAPITOL ADVISERS THIRD QUARTER 2017 MARKET PERSPECTIVE Asset Class/Index Q3 2017 YTD 2017 Asset Class/Index Q3 2017 YTD 2017 US Equities Fixed Income S&P 500 Index 4.48% 14.24% US T reasury Bonds
More informationGundlach's Forecast for 2015
Gundlach's Forecast for 2015 January 20, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Despite a fragile economic recovery now threatened by falling oil prices and the likelihood that the Fed will raise short-term rates, the
More informationThe Global Recession of 2016
INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationAdjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices
2 nd Quarter 2015 Adjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices Most Americans are aware that the U.S. economy and markets are more frequently and deeply affected by global developments than was
More informationWill the Mortgage Whale Torpedo the Market Rally?
MAY 01 2017 Will the Mortgage Whale Torpedo the Market Rally? Tracy Chen, CFA, CAIA» The Federal Reserve (Fed) has telegraphed its intention to start tapering its balance sheet, causing investors to evaluate
More informationWill Quantitative Tightening Sink the Market?
Will Quantitative Tightening Sink the Market? May 2, 2018 by Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network As we move away from the financial crisis and as policies normalize, it is a good time to take
More informationGaining trust newsletter
Gaining trust newsletter Spring 2017 Global economic outlook The International Monetary Fund is projecting global economic growth to be 3.4% and 3.6% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Emerging market economies
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 405 October Trade Balance. December 9, October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP
COMMENTARY NUMBER 405 October Trade Balance December 9, 2011 October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price
More informationThe Volatility You Can See Coming
DRIEHAUS GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK // JANUARY 2018 The Volatility You Can See Coming By Richard Thies As we reflect upon the strong year for markets in 2017, and ahead to 2018, we are reminded of the many
More information2012 6 http://www.bochk.com 2 3 4 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) June, 2012 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com An Analysis on the Plunge in Hong Kong s GDP Growth and Prospects
More informationTaxing Risk* Narayana Kocherlakota. President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Economic Club of Minnesota. Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Taxing Risk* Narayana Kocherlakota President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Economic Club of Minnesota Minneapolis, Minnesota May 10, 2010 *This topic is discussed in greater depth in "Taxing Risk
More informationFebruary 21, Dear Investors:
February 21, 2019 Crescat Capital LLC 1560 Broadway Denver, CO 80202 (303) 271-9997 info@crescat.net www.crescat.net Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle and timing it ahead of key inflection
More informationNumber 50. April 20, Section Two of Four MARKETS PERSPECTIVE
Number 5 April 2, 29 Section Two of Four MARKETS PERSPECTIVE The three best bets I can offer are: (1) The U.S. economy does not face imminent recovery. (2) The U.S. dollar faces an extreme sell-off against
More informationMarket Outlook New Castle Investment Advisors, LLC December 28, 2017
New Castle Investment Advisors, LLC December 28, 2017 Market Outlook 2017 Executive Summary The U.S. bull market continues. We expect the domestic stock market to finish up in 2017, probably low double
More informationThe Nutcracker and the Bond King
The Nutcracker and the Bond King 10-year bond yields have just experienced one of the sharpest 100-day percentage drops in over 50 years Interest rates are now below their closing level of the 666 March
More informationThe yellow highlighted areas are bear markets with NO recession.
Part 3, Final Report: Major Market Reversal Model This is the third and final report on my major market reversal model. This portion of the model focuses on the domestic and international economy. I ve
More informationAnother Review of the Miners and Gold Market. An Anti-Bubble Blow-Off in the Gold Sector November 3, 2014 Author Pater Tenebrarum
Another Review of the Miners and Gold Market. Record money managed shorts and the big swings are symptomatic of huge leverage in the paper market. At some time these shorts will be caught offsides. fa
More informationThe Fiscal Cliff Lessons from the 1930s
The Fiscal Cliff Lessons from the 193s The fiscal cliff developed because both sides of the House concurred that reducing the growth of government debt was the most important economic policy objective,
More informationVincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan By Robert Huebscher June 4, 2013
Vincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan By Robert Huebscher June 4, 2013 High debt levels translate to slower growth, according to Vincent Reinhart. That conclusion will be disheartening
More informationThe Humility of Rates and the Arrogance of Equities
4 Year Average GDP Growth Rate % The Humility of Rates and the Arrogance of Equities U.S. GDP Growth Trends 1951-Current 8 6 4 2 0 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 4yr GDP
More informationOctober 29, Can the Fed Successfully Exit from Its Recent Policy?
October 29, 2014 Can the Fed Successfully Exit from Its Recent Policy? Stephen M. Miller, PhD The U.S. economic recovery continues with many pundits predicting an improving trajectory over the next two
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationWhat Should the Fed Do?
Peterson Perspectives Interviews on Current Topics What Should the Fed Do? Joseph E. Gagnon and Michael Mussa discuss the latest steps by the Federal Reserve to help the economy and what tools might be
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationIs it 1932 o r 1942, 1958,
Volume 23, No. 1, April 24, 2009 CWS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC CWS Capital Partners LLC Is it 1932 o r 1942, 1958, 1962, 1970, 1975, 1978, 1982, 2002? CALENDAR OF EVENTS Monday, May 25, 2009 Memorial Day, CWS
More informationEconomy Check-In: Post 2008 Crisis Market Update Special Report
Insight. Education. Analysis. Economy Check-In: Post 2008 Crisis Market Update Special Report By Kevin Chambers The 2008 crisis was one of the worst downturns in American economic history. News reports
More informationIs The Market Predicting A Recession?
Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.
More informationHarmonic Volatility Line Indicator
Harmonic Volatility Line Indicator Subtitle: Alternative Approach to Gann s Angle Author: Young Ho Seo Finance Engineer and Quantitative Trader Book Version: 1.7 (13 May 2017) Total Pages counted in MS-Word:
More informationThe following is an excerpt from our letter for the fourth quarter of 2008:
The following is an excerpt from our letter for the fourth quarter of 2008: This past year, and in particular the quarter just concluded, saw historic declines in the prices of virtually every form of
More informationInternational Money and Banking: 14. Real Interest Rates, Lower Bounds and Quantitative Easing
International Money and Banking: 14. Real Interest Rates, Lower Bounds and Quantitative Easing Karl Whelan School of Economics, UCD Spring 2018 Karl Whelan (UCD) Real Interest Rates Spring 2018 1 / 23
More informationStock Market Behavior Models for the Day
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments
More informationNew Castle Investment Advisors, LLC
New Castle Investment Advisors, LLC Mid-Year 2017 Market Outlook -for client use only- July 6, 2017--The English romantic poet John Keats once wrote, "You must bring your philosophy to bear..." For the
More informationBuilding a Balanced Portfolio: An Unconventional Allocation. It is easy to make money. By Alex Shahidi, CIMA, CFA, CFP
Reprinted with permission from the American Association of Individual Investors, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611; 800-428-2244; www.aaii.com. 2015. Building a Balanced Portfolio: An Unconventional
More informationExcerpts from First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America s Prosperity
Excerpts from First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America s Prosperity In the most fundamental sense, the purpose of monetary reform is simple: restore and lock-in consistent rule-like policies that
More informationHaruhiko Kuroda: How to overcome deflation
Haruhiko Kuroda: How to overcome deflation Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at a conference, held by the London School of Economics and Political Science, London, 21 March 2014.
More informationThe State of the American Economy
Chapter 5 The State of the American Economy Michael J. BOSKIN Tully M. Friedman Professor of Economics and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and Research Associate, National Bureau
More informationFive key investment themes for 2015
Five key investment themes for 2015 Exiting QE in the US was always going to be a path of uncertainty for central bankers, globally and for markets and investors. There is simply no exact precedent for
More informationWhy markets could be massively underpricing US rate hikes
Economic and Financial Analysis 22 May 2018 Global Economics 22 May 2018 Article Why markets could be massively underpricing US rate hikes Just who's telling the truth, business and consumer surveys or
More informationSub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy
Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy February 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. 4Q GDP Up Only 0.7% Economy Started and Ended Weak 2. A Controversy Over
More informationThe Stock Market Is Worried About Inflation. Should It Be?
Instruction for term paper, Eco202H, Spring, 2018 This term paper is worth 20 effective points. The paper should be less than five pages, double-spaced with standard margins and fonts of 11. The complete
More informationGauging Current Conditions:
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation Vol. 2 2005 The gauges below indicate the economic outlook for the current year and for 2006 for factors that typically
More informationChange, Growth and Uncertainty
SPRING 2017 Change, Growth and Uncertainty SUMMARY ANTHONY CHAN, PHD CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Anthony is a member of the J.P. Morgan Global Investment Committee. He travels extensively to meet with Chase
More informationQuantitative Easing and the implications for Actuaries & Economics Discussion
Quantitative Easing and the implications for Actuaries & Economics Discussion Colm Fitzgerald Dublin City University / Paragon Research Ltd Society of Actuaries in Ireland May 17 th 2011 Introduction Context
More informationMajor Trends Update Jan. 10, 2019
Prepared By Robert Miner, Dynamic Traders Group, Inc. Major Trends Update Jan. 10, 2019 This Major Trends Report of most of the markets we follow on a regular basis in the DT Reports is a summary of the
More informationThe Great Depression & New Deal ( ) Part 1: Basic Economics + Causes of GD
The Great Depression & New Deal (1929-1941) Part 1: Basic Economics + Causes of GD Introduction The nation, like all capitalist nations, had suffered economic downturns many times, including longterm depressions
More information