Astronics Corporation (ATRO - $16.35) Coverage terminated.
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- Norman Russell
- 5 years ago
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1 Richard A. Ryan (612) Aerospace Supplier May 12, 2008 Financial Summary Rev(mil) E 2009 Mar $ 42.9 $ Jun $ Sep $ Dec $ FY $158.2 P/Sales 0.8x EPS E 2009 Mar $0.56 $ Jun $ Sep $ Dec $ FY $1.80 P/E 9.1x Astronics Corporation (ATRO - $16.35) Coverage terminated. ATRO recently reported Q1 08 revenues of $41.1million and EPS of $0.32 versus $42.8 million and $0.58 in last year s first quarter. Our estimate had been for $43.6 million and $0.42. Consensus was $44.7 million and $041. Management had lowered 08 guidance after reporting Q4 07 results due to a slowdown in new orders for the retrofit market. The Company indicated that the quarter was in line with its expectations and reaffirmed its 09 revenue guidance of $170 million. Consequently, it appears that our own and consensus Q1 estimates for revenues and gross margins were simply overly optimistic. While orders firmed and the backlog improved, we are dropping coverage on ATRO due to lack of interest. Our previous rating on ATRO was HOLD. Previous estimates and opinions should no longer be relied upon. Price: $ Week Range: $ $16.10 Target: NA Rating: NA Shares Outstanding: 8.2 mil Mkt. Capitalization: $134 mil Avg. Volume: 56,000 Inst. Ownership: 37% BV / Share (Est.): $6.40 Debt / Tot. Cap.: 22% Est. LT EPS Growth: 25%+ Company Description Astronics Corporation, through its subsidiaries Astronics Advanced Electronic Systems Corp., Luminescent Systems Inc. and Luminescent Systems Canada Inc. is a leader in advanced, high performance lighting, electrical power generation, control and distribution systems for the global aerospace industry Products are sold to original equipment manufacturers in the commercial transport, business jet, military markets, OEM suppliers, and aircraft operators globally. The U.S. Government is also a major customer. Feltl and Company Research Department. Please see important disclosures on pages 2 to South Sixth Street, Suite 4200 Minneapolis, MN
2 Analyst Certification I, Ernest Andberg, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company and its securities. I also certify that I have not been, am not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations expressed in this report. Important Disclosures: The analyst or any member of his/her household does not hold a long or short position, options, warrants, rights or futures of this security in their personal account(s). As of the end of the month preceding the date of publication of this report, Feltl and Company did not beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. There is not any actual material conflict of interest that either the analyst or Feltl and Co. is aware of. The analyst has not received any compensation for any investment banking business with this company in the past twelve months and does not expect to receive any in the next three months. Feltl and Company has been engaged for investment banking services with the subject company during the past twelve months and does anticipate receiving compensation for such services in the next three months. Feltl and Company managed the initial public offering of Wireless Ronin Technologies dated November 28, Feltl and Company has not served as a broker, either as agent or principal, buying back stock for the subject company s account as part of the company s authorized stock buy-back program in the last twelve months. No director, officer or employee of Feltl & Company serves as a director, officer or advisory board member to the subject company. Feltl and Company Rating System: Feltl and Company utilizes a four tier rating system for potential total returns over the next 12 months. Strong Buy: The stock is expected to have total return potential of at least 30%. Catalysts exist to generate higher valuations, and positions should be initiated at current levels. Buy: The stock is expected to have total return potential of at least 15%. Near term catalysts may not exist and the common stock needs further time to develop. Investors requiring time to build positions may consider current levels attractive. Hold: The stock is expected to have total return potential of less than 15%. Fundamental events are not present to make it either a Buy or a Sell. The stock is an acceptable longer-term holding. Sell: Expect a negative total return. Current positions may be used as a source of funds.
3 5/9/2008 Ratings Distribution for Feltl and Company Investment Banking Number of Percent Number of Percent of Rating Stocks of Total Stocks Rating category SB/Buy 24 73% 4 17% Hold 8 24% 0 0% Sell 1 3% 0 0% % 4 12% The above represents our ratings distribution on the stocks in the Feltl and Company research universe, together with the number in (and percentage of) each category for which Feltl and Company provided investment-banking services in the previous twelve months. 4/13/07 Buy Target: $ /09/07 Buy Target: $ /05/07 - Hold 05/12/08 - Coverage Term. Date Nature of Report Rating Price Target 4/13/07 Initiation of Coverage Buy $ /09/07 Q Results Buy $ /03/07 Q Results Buy $ /05/07 Q Results Lowering rating on valuation Hold NA Results Hold NA 05/12/08 Coverage terminated Feltl and Company does make a market in the subject security at the date of publication of this report. As a market maker, Feltl and Co. could act as principal or agent with respect to the purchase or sale of those securities.
4 Valuation and Price Target Methodology: Coverage terminated effective 05/12/08. Risks to Achievement of Estimates and Price Target: ATRO s products are sold in highly competitive markets. Some of its competitors are larger and more diversified, and may have greater financial, marketing, production and research and development resources. As a result, they may be better able to withstand the effects of periodic economic downturns. ATRO s markets are cyclical and sensitive to domestic and foreign economic conditions, which may cause operating results to fluctuate. For example, demand in the business jet markets is dependent upon several factors, including capital investment, product innovations, economic growth, and technology upgrades. In addition, the commercial airline industry is highly cyclical and sensitive to fuel price increases, labor disputes and economic conditions. A change in any of these factors could result in a reduction in the amount of air travel. A reduction in air travel would reduce orders for new aircraft and reductions in cabin upgrades by airlines, thus negatively impacting operating results. Sales to the U.S. Government and its prime contractors and subcontractors represent a significant portion of ATRO s business. The funding of these programs is generally subject to annual congressional appropriations, and congressional priorities are subject to change. A decline in governmental expenditures may result in a reduction in the volume of contracts awarded to the company. The nature of ATRO s business involves fixed-price contracts. For 2006, fixed-price contracts represented 100% of sales. On fixedprice contracts ATRO bears the risk that increased or unexpected costs may reduce profits. Contracting in the defense industry is subject to significant regulations and potential risks of civil and criminal fines and penalties. ATRO has been, and should continue to be, subject to audits and investigations by government agencies. The failure to comply with the terms of its government contracts could harm its business reputation. Many of ATRO s contracts involve subcontracts with other companies upon which it relies upon to perform a portion of services. Failure by subcontractors to satisfactorily provide the agreed-upon supplies or perform the agreed-upon services may materially and adversely impact ATRO s ability to perform its obligations. Subcontractor performance deficiencies could result in a customer terminating its contract for default. A default termination could expose ATRO to liability and substantially impair its ability to compete for future contracts. The loss of a major customer or a significant reduction in sales to a major customer would reduce ATRO s sales and earnings. In 2006 the company had a concentration of sales to a major customer representing 21% of sales. To succeed, ATRO needs to design, develop, manufacture, assemble, test, market and support new products and enhancements on a timely and cost-effective basis. New product development efforts may not be successful, which would result in a reduction in sales and earnings. Also, competitors may develop technologies and products that are more effective than ATRO s, or make its technology and products obsolete or uncompetitive. If any of these events occur, sales and profits could be adversely affected. Other Disclosures: The information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable, but not guaranteed, to be accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates expressed herein reflect a judgment made as of this date, and are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. The securities described may not be qualified for purchase in all jurisdictions. Because of individual requirements, advice regarding securities mentioned in this report should not be construed as suitable for all accounts. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular client of Feltl and Company. Some securities mentioned herein relate to small speculative companies that may not be suitable for some accounts. Feltl and Company suggests that prior to acting on any of the recommendations herein, the recipient should consider whether such a recommendation is appropriate given their investment objectives and current financial circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Additional information is available upon request.
5 EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS DIRECTORY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Clinton H. Morrison, CFA Director of Equity Research (612) Ernest W. Andberg, CFA (612) INSTITUTIONAL SALES: (866) Thomas Pierce Senior Vice President Institutional Sales (612) Mark Hagen (612) Paul J. Axt (612) Jay M. Meier (612) Mark E. Smith (612) Jack M. Zipoy (612) TRADING: (866) Joseph G. Fredericks Manager, Equity Trading (612) William W. Koop (612) Thomas Walters (612) Elliott Randolph (612) Cory Carlson (612) Luke J. Weimerskirch (612) Ryan Quade (612) Dugan Buffington (612) SOUTH SIXTH STREET SUITE 4200 MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA (612) (866) MEMBER SIPC & NASD
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