NIRS Research Informing State Policy

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Colin Carpenter
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1 NIRS Research Informing State Policy NASRA Annual Conference Coeur d'alene, ID August 9, 2016 Diane Oakley, Executive Director, NIRS

2 FACT: Pensions Fiscally Responsible Three Reasons: Longevity Risk Pooling Maintain Portfolio Diversification Achieve Superior Returns net of Fees 2

3 Texas Teachers Retirement System Benefit Design Study Added: Comparison of Multiple Plan Designs 3

4 Texas TRS Study Added: Pension Benefit Simulations Simulations of DC plan probable outcome for employees. FACT: Workers would have only a 50% chance of reaching 60% of the benefit provided by the DB plan, at the same cost. 4

NIRS Revises Model: Still a Better Bang for a Buck Compared 3 Designs DB plan Typical asset allocation and fees. Individually Directed DC plan Target Date Fund (TDF).

5 NIRS Revises Model: Still a Better Bang for a Buck Compared 3 Designs DB plan Typical asset allocation and fees. Individually Directed DC plan Target Date Fund (TDF). Average fund fees, modest behavioral drag. Ideal DC plan TDF with same glide path. Same DB fees, no behavioral drag No employee choice. Contribution to fund DB plan is 16.3% of payroll. 5

6 Colorado Pension Design Study A Comprehensive Study Comparing the Cost and Effectiveness Office of the State Auditor Confirmed that Alternative Plan Designs Cost More than PERA SAME BENEFIT for a 30-year Employee at 65 Source: Colorado Office of the State Auditor and GRS 6

7 COPERA (DB and Member Account): Highest Income Replacement COPERA delivers better benefits for all employment situations. Source: Colorado PERS summary of data from Colorado State Auditor and GRS report 7

8 COPERA (DB and Member Account): Lowest Cost to Provide Benefit Source: Colorado PERS summary of data from Colorado State Auditor and GRS report 8

9 Texans Agree: Pensions Are a Tool To Recruit and Retain Public Workforce TEXAS: 88% Support 60% Strongly Support 9

10 More than 3 out of 4 Texans Strongly Support Public Pensions TEXAS: 77% Very/Strongly 96% All Support 10

11 92 Percent Of Texans Support Public Pensions For Police, Fire TEXANS: 68% Strongly Agree 92% Total Agree 11

12 78 Percent Of Texans Support Public Pensions For Teachers TEXANS: 60% Strongly Agree 78% Total Agree 12

13 A Majority (60%) Feel Public Plans Have Made Changes Needed TEXANS: 24% Strongly Agree 60% Total Agree 13

14 In Texas, 86 Percent Agree That Everyone Should Have A Pension TEXANS: 50% Strongly Agree 86% Total Agree 14

15 KEY FACT: Pensions Sustainable Lessons from Well-Funded Pensions Studied Six Well-Funded Public Pension Plans Including: New York Teacher s Retirement System

Lessons Learned Study 1. Employer pension contributions that pay the full ARC, and that at least equal the normal cost; 2. Employee contributions to help share the plan cost; 3.

16 Lessons Learned Study 1. Employer pension contributions that pay the full ARC, and that at least equal the normal cost; 2. Employee contributions to help share the plan cost; 3. Benefit improvements that are actuarially valued before adoption and properly funded upon adoption; 4. COLAs granted responsibly; 5. Anti-spiking measures that ensure actuarial integrity, transparency; 6. Economic actuarial assumptions that can reasonably be expected to be achieved long term.

2011 Wisconsin Act 32 Required a Study of State s Retirement System Long-Term Financial Stability NIRS study as benchmark and reported WRS contains all of these best practices.

17 2011 Wisconsin Act 32 Required a Study of State s Retirement System Long-Term Financial Stability NIRS study as benchmark and reported WRS contains all of these best practices. WRS Economic Impact Analysis Quoted NIRS Pensionomics analysis that 35,000 jobs that paid $1.3 billion in wages were supported by $3.4 billion in benefits paid to EFT s 134,497 retirees. 17

18 2014 Pensionomics: Retirees Spending DB Benefits Support Nationally Over $940 billion in economic output Over 6 million jobs that paid over $300 billion in income $130 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenue 18

19 Taxpayer Stakeholders: Financing of Public Pension Plans, Sources of pension fund receipts.

20 Pensionomics: State Fact Sheets

21 State Economic Impact Studies 21

22 Pensionomics 2016: Update Impact of Retirees Spending in Our Economies 22

23 NIRS Research Giving Balance: Lousiana Actuarial Committee

DB Role in the Public Sector: Workforce Management DBs may improve public sector productivity: More likely to value their work and tend to invest more in their skills.

24 DB Role in the Public Sector: Workforce Management DBs may improve public sector productivity: More likely to value their work and tend to invest more in their skills. Pensions enable public employers to recruit and retain quality workers from the private sector. Moving to a DC design could affect recruitment, retention, and productivity. DB plans encourage efficient retirement and eliminate job lock when workers with DC plans cannot retire; otherwise choke points emerge limiting promotions for younger workers. 24

25 87 Percent: Pensions Are a Tool To Recruit and Retain Public Workforce Source: NIRS Retirement Security 2015 and Towers Watson The Strategic Value of Retirement Benefits: A Global Focus, 2014

26 NIRS Fact Check: Manhattan Institute Exclusively Uses Private Plan Data Fact Check Data misleading Not relevant to p ublic pensions NIRS Numbers add up to a fair, accurate model DB investment tops TDF s Asset Class Typical Public Allocation Cash 2.4% 3.4% Equity 50.9% 42.0% Debt 24.8% 39.4% Real Estate 7.1% 3.7% Private Equity 8.3% 4.9% Hedge Funds 4.6% 3.8% Other 1.9% 2.8% Weighted Average Assumed Return 7.81% 7.26% Private Sector Allocation 26 Source: NIRS Still a Better Bang 2014, and Towers Watson 2013 Asset Allocations in Fortune 1000 Pension Plans.

27 27 Questions? National Institute on Retirement Security

Countering the Attack on Public Pensions with Facts

Countering the Attack on Public Pensions with Facts NAPO 28 th Pension & Benefits Seminar January 25, 2016 Diane Oakley, Executive Director Agenda: Building a Fact- Based Tool Kit for DB Plans» Strengths