THE POPULATION OF BOWEN ISLAND

Transcription

1 DRAFT THE POPULATION OF BOWEN ISLAND PART TWO POPULATION FORECASTS FOR BOWEN ISLAND 2006 TO 2026 Prepared by Bruce Howlett Revised April 2004

2 POPULATION FORECASTS Forecasting is always hazardous. Particularly for small populations where small numerical differences can result in large percentage changes. But there are some bases for proceeding to estimate the future population of Bowen Island. How much will Bowen grow in the next decade? What will the population be in 2011, the date of the next biennial census, or in 2021? Because of uncertainties in the future economy of Bowen and the Mainland, the price of housing, and the image of Bowen in the minds of people both on and off-island, the extent of future Island growth is unclear. However, based on past experience and the availability of land, growth on Bowen will continue. The only question is how fast Much depends on the real estate market (which is often subject to wide fluctuations) as well as growth of the local economy. A previous study titled Commerce on Bowen Island dated October 2003 indicates that the rate of growth in the local economy has been considerably faster than population. This phenomenon is to be expected for as population grows, the diversity of businesses expands even faster because certain types of businesses only become viable when certain thresholds of population are reached. Additionally, as Bowen generates more of its own economic base the competition from In Town businesses decreases as products and services become directly available onisland. This economic growth results in more on-island jobs further adding to the growth pressure from those moving to Bowen from the Mainland. Growth by past census period Looking back at census data from 1981 to 2001, (even though there may have been undercounting) Bowen s growth trend has been consistently upward. Five year census growth has never been less than 223 (from 1996 to 2001 considered to be much too low) nor higher than 667 (from 1991 to 1996). The fastest growth occurred in the ten year period from 1986 to If the data for 2001 represents an undercount and independent checks point decisively to that conclusion (even B.C. Statistics has estimated Bowen s population to be 3281 in 2001 or a growth of 549 rather than 225 as reported by StatsCan), then growth from 1996 to 2001 would more closely resemble that for the previous censuses. Table One summarizes population data from 1981 to The 2001 adjusted figure is taken from the report titled The Population of Bowen Island dated August

3 TABLE ONE < census > B.C. Stats Adjusted Population: 1,125 1,445 2,065 2,732 2,957 3,281 4,000 Five Year Incr: Five Year % Increase: 28% 43% 32% 8% 20% 39% Ten year % Increase: 84% 89% 43% 59% 84% It may be possible there is some degree of undercounting in every census - there is no way of knowing. Perhaps the 2001 census was off more than others. Separate checks undertaken on household data from Canada Post, B.C. Hydro, Telus, the Gold Pages Bowen phone book, B.C. Assessors and the Sustainability Task Force indicate an estimated population in 2001 between 3,800 and 4,200. For population projections (and to err on the conservative side) figures used as the estimate of population for Bowen Island in the year 2001 are 3,280 for the low estimate and 3500 for the mid and high estimates (3500 is between the Stats B.C. Figure of 3,281 and the figure developed for Population Adjusted of 4,000). An additional Upper Mid estimate was prepared assuming the population for the year 2001 is 4,000 as presented in the August 2003 report The Population of Bowen Island. FORECASTS OF GROWTH FOR BOWEN ISLAND Trend Line Low Estimate If the population of Bowen in 2001 is set at 3,280 and extrapolated, the 2006 population would be about 3,850; in 2011 it would be about 4,400, and in 2016 it would be about 4,900 and by 2021 it would be about 5,500. Based on recent growth and independent estimates of the current population these numbers appear to be quite low. Mid Estimate If the 2001 Bowen population is estimated to be about 3,500 and extrapolated the population estimates for 2006 would be about 4,300; 2011 would be about 4,800, 2016 would be about 5,500 and 2021 would be 6,200. 2

4 Upper Mid Estimate If the figure of 4,000 taken from the August 2003 Report titled the Population of Bowen Island is used as the Island population in 2001 instead of 3,500, then the Mid estimates of future population would be increased by 500 each period. Thus the 2006 population would be about 4,700; 2011 would be about 5,300; 2016 would be 6,000; 2021 would be 6,700 and 2026 would be about 7,400, or very close to build out. Non Trend Line High Estimate An estimate of 3500 for the 2001 population is used as the 2001 starting point for the High estimate. Additionally, rather than trend line, this forecast takes an average of percentage increases in growth over the past twenty years. This assumption is, most likely, unsustainable as growth at the same percentage rate as occurred over the past twenty years would put extreme pressures on public services, governance, infrastructure and public and private institutions. Thus the high estimate will likely become more unreliable over time. Table One shows that ten year percentage increases on Bowen over each decade have ranged from about 59% to 89%. If the percentage growth is taken by five year increments (apart from discarding the anomalous figure of 8% based on StatsCan data for ) five year percentage increases have ranged from about 20 % (using the B.C. Stats data for 2001 population) to 43% for the period from 1986 to Excepting the census based increase and using the B.C. Stats data instead, then average growth would be about 31% every five years. Based on an average increase of 31% every five years, and assuming the population of Bowen Island in 2001 was 3500, then forecasts for the next twenty years would be about as follows: ,600; ,000; ,900; ,300. The Low, Mid, Upper Mid and High estimates are shown graphically on the accompanying chart. The Uses of Population Forecasts Population forecasts can be useful in estimating when various public and private actions could or should occur. For example, Bowen will have to shoulder a major burden of policing costs when the population reaches Using the extremely High estimate, this figure could be reached by about Using the Mid estimates, it would be reached by 2011 or The Low estimate indicates that we would reach 5000 about In other words, Bowen will have to assume policing costs somewhere between 2007 and 2016, with a most likely middle estimate of 2012, or 8 years from now. 3

5 By using past per capita growth figures, similar data could be developed for future recreational demands for example, or for other municipally provided services. Additionally, the timing of future expenditures for other services could also take these time estimates into account, including water, waste disposal, bus service, fire, police, and schools, as well as potential increases in commerce, institutions and social organizations. All have grown in the past and using data for the past two decades, augmented by experience elsewhere; it should be possible to project potential future demands for all these services and activities. Similarly, if the uppermost figure for the future build out population for Bowen Island is about 7,500 to 8,000 (a figure that may be higher depending on the number of secondary suites) and assuming the most rapid High growth rates, Bowen could be fully developed by as early as Using the Upper Mid estimate, Bowen would be fully developed about With the Mid estimate full development would take longer. Using the Low growth estimate would take very much longer. Nonetheless, for planning purposes taking a bracket of between 2016 and 2026 is not inappropriate. Actual numbers would have to be checked each census and possibly annually by tracking increments in mail deliveries, Assessor s data, the Bowen Gold Pages phone book as well as increments in telephone and Hydro connections. Factors Affecting Future Growth Most certainly the Mainland economy will affect the rate of growth on Bowen. In addition, as the Mainland becomes denser, some will look for accommodations in more natural and remote locations. That Bowen has been one of those destinations is undoubted. Compared to Mainland growth the percentage rate of population increase on Bowen have been much faster. If Bowen were not attractive, growth would have been in step with, or lower than, the Mainland. The opposite has been the case. In addition, as Bowen becomes even more self sufficient (as it has tended toward in the past decade - see the report Commerce on Bowen Island dated October 2003) growth from on-island employment will become a factor, adding to that of new in-migrants from the Mainland. Additionally, if improvements or increases are made in ferry transport (Translink is studying the possibility of direct ferry service to downtown Vancouver) then the accessibility of Bowen would be seen to be greater. As this is written (Spring 2004) the rate of housing construction on Bowen is extremely rapid tending toward the high estimate. Whether this rate can be sustained is questionable however for once interest rates rise demand may well subside, as it has in the past. One has but to look back two or three years to see the opposite kind of market for housing on Bowen than the one that exists at present. 4

6 Age Structure Changes in Island demographic percentages over the past decade have exhibited a wave pattern. Percentage data indicates that while the age cohort from 0 to 4 has dropped dramatically from 9% of the population in 1991 to 5% in 2001, there has been an equally dramatic decrease in those 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 and to a lesser degree in those 35 to 39 over the same period. Meanwhile there has been a strong increase in the 45 to 49, 50 to 54 and 55 to 59 groups. Most of those changes have simply been due to each age group growing five yeas older with minor adjustments due to net population age group shifts on or off-island. These kinds of data can be useful in adjusting forecasts for age dependent activities such as schools, recreation, seniors housing, teen activity demands and services. Cohort Persistence Just as important a question is whether the Bowen age cohorts will continue a wave like pattern in future years and simply move across the chart as they age. This is somewhat problematic as those in the 15 to 19, 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 groups grow into the next age group. In past years there has been a dramatic drop in these age groups, perhaps as teen-agers grow into young adults and leave the Island for schooling or off- Island work. If this trend continues then those who were 15 to 19 in 2001 may leave the Island as they become 20 to 24 and beyond. Thus the wave may not persist for this group. Only time will tell whether this cohort will remain at 9% of the total population as it ages into the late teens and twenties or whether it will drop due to out-migration. If more employment opportunities are created on Bowen for these age groups either through commerce, institutions or government, then they may persist rather than move off-island. Thus it is important to monitor future changes not only in total population but in age groups as these factors have strong significance for the characteristics of the local labour force and the demands for services. 5

7 POPULATION FORECASTS Population 6000 LOW MID HIGH Year

8 POPULATION FORECASTS POPULATION LOW MID UPPER MID HIGH YEAR