Use and distribution of extractive sector revenues Roger Hosein

Transcription

1 Use and distribution of extractive sector revenues Roger Hosein 07/04/2014 1

2 Table 4: Trinidad and Tobago s Macroeconomic indicators, Total reserves in months of imports (Import Cover) Gross Official Reserves ($US mn) CAB (% of GDP) GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , /04/2014 (provisional) , ,

3 GDP (constant LCU), TT$mn GDP (current LCU), TT$mn /04/2014 3

4 GDP per capita (constant LCU) GDP per capita (current LCU) /04/

5 GDP (constant 2005 US$) Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) /04/2014 5

6 Table 5: Real GDP Growth Rate of various sectors, Date Petroleum Non Petroleum Petrochemic als Other Petroleum Governmen t Agriculture Constructio n Manufacturi ng Distribution Finance, Insurance & Other Services n.d n.d /04/

7 Table 6: Real GDP growth rate of the T&T Economy (Quarter on Quarter %) GDP Growth Rate (2000=100) Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep /04/2014 Dec Mar

8 Table 7: Quarterly Real GDP growth of Petroleum and Non Petroleum Sector, Q Q Date Non Petroleum Petroleum Total Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Source: CBTT Database, /04/2014 8

9 Rank Score /04/2014 9

10 1.02 Intellectual property protection Public trust in politicians Irregular payments and bribes Favoritism in decisions of government officials Wastefulness of government spending Transparency of government policymaking Business costs of crime and violence Organized crime Reliability of police services Ethical behavior of firms Strength of auditing and reporting standards Efficacy of corporate boards Protection of minority shareholders interests Available airline seat km/week, millions* Inflation, annual % change* Business impact of HIV/AIDS HIV prevalence, % adult pop.* Infant mortality, deaths/1,000 live births* Life expectancy, years* Tertiary education enrollment, gross %* Effectiveness of anti monopoly policy No. days to start a business* Agricultural policy costs Trade tariffs, % duty* Burden of customs procedures Imports as a percentage of GDP* Degree of customer orientation /04/

11 7.01 Cooperation in labor employer relations Flexibility of wage determination Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* Pay and productivity Women in labor force, ratio to men* Ease of access to loans Venture capital availability Mobile broadband subscriptions/100 pop.* th pillar: Market size Domestic market size index, 1 7 (best)* Foreign market size index, 1 7 (best)* GDP (PPP$ billions)* State of cluster development Nature of competitive advantage Value chain breadth Willingness to delegate authority th pillar: Innovation Capacity for innovation Quality of scientific research institutions Company spending on R&D University industry collaboration in R&D Gov t procurement of advanced tech products /04/

12 Shale gas Shale gas has become not only an energy exploration and production issue wherever it is or might be located, but also a macroeconomic issue for national economies, a microeconomic issue for energy intensive industry sectors, a global environmental issue for local communities, a public safety and health issue wherever there is exploration or production, and an energy independence and national security issue in countries that are dependent on oil imports and/or gas imports. 07/04/

13 Like labour and capital, natural resources are factors of production that serve as inputs in goods and services production. While there is a broad range of natural resources that could be discussed, the focus here will be on energy and, to a limited extent, on land and water, which are the natural resources typically included in aggregate production functions (for discussion of trade and a wider variety of natural resources, see the 2010 World Trade Report (WTO, 2010) and Ruta and Venables (2012). 07/04/

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15 1, Rapid growth in demand Demand for Gas (BCM) Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific

16 Rapid growth in demand India is building infrastructure for importing LNG Terminal Commissioning Capacity Dahej LNG Termina in 2004, 10 in 2009, 15 planned for 2016 Hazira LNG Terminal million tons per annum (mmtpa) is planned, currently at 2.5 mmtpa Dabhol LNG Terminal 2014 after the construction of the breakwater (the breakwater is equipment in the water to protect ships from big waves 10.0 million tons per annum (mmtpa) Kochi LNG Terminal Q 3, mmtpa Gangavaram LNG Terminal Planned for mmtpa Source: Petronet LNG LTD, May /04/ SD_ pdf

17 Rapid growth in demand India is building infrastructure for importing LNG India GDP (constant 2005, US$) , , , , , , , , /04/

18 Surge in production Another feature of world natural gas markets is shale gas. US shale gas deposits has been proven has risen from 23 TCF in 2007 to 60.6 TCF in 2011 to TCF in 2011, and 665 TCF by year US Shale gas (TCF) Source: US EIA database 07/04/

19 Surge in production 07/04/ Source: EIA database

20 Surge in production Henry Hub prices Axis Title 6 5 HH /04/

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23 Table 12: Improper use of subsidies and economic rents Transfers and Subsidies (TT$mn) Central Gov't Current Revenue Oil (TT$mns) Non Institutional Population (000's) Unemployme nt Rate (%) Real Economic growth Rate Unemploy ment (000's) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , p 11,428.5* 23

24 CEPEP Table 10: Budgetary allocations to CEPEP Fiscal Year Budget Allocation (Millions) May to September 2002 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $468 Source: Social Sector Investment Programme Reports (Various Years) 24

25 minimum wage imputed minimum wage real minimum wage Index of Retail Prices All Items (Jan. 03=100) /04/

26 Year Total Employed Labor Force Distribution of Elementary Workers by Industrial Group Total EW Agriculture (excludes sugar) Manufacturing (excludes sugar and petroleum) Source: CSO, Continuous Sampling Survey of the Population (various years) 07/04/ CSP

27 Year Total Employme nt Figure 2: Employment Trends in selected segments of the Labor Market, Employment in Community social and personal employment (CSP) Elementary Occupations in CSP Women in elementary employment jobs in the CSP sector Number of workers in CSP working less than 33 hours CSP/TOTAL employment (%) Total Elementary Occupations Source: Continuous Sampling Survey of the Population, various years 07/04/

28 Date Persons with Jobs (000's) Labour Force (000's) Unemployment (000's) Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Ratio (%) Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 2011 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep /04/

29 Date Employment in Agriculture (000's) Employment in Construction (incl.electricity & Water) (000's) Employment in Manufacturing (000's) Employment in All Other Sectors (000's) Employment in Petroleum & Gas (000's) Persons Employed Transport Storage & Comm. (000's) Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 11 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. Jun Sep Dec Mar 12 07/04/ Jun

30 Calendar year Table 14: Fuel Subsidy claimed on types of Fuel Premium 95 RON Super 92 RON Subsidy Claimed (TT$mn) Regular 83 RON Auto Diesel Kerosene LPG TOTAL , , , , (5.69) , , , , , , , , , , YTD (July 2013) , , , Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs,

31 Table 15: Motor Vehicles on Register Hire and Goods Tractors and Motor Total Year Private Rented Omnibus Vehicles Trailers Cycles Industrial Registered Real GDP p

32 Introduction to the GATE Programme 2001: Dollar for Dollar programme 50% TLE Tuition Funding 2004: GATE Programme 50% Tuition Funding + Up to 100% Tuition Funding based on Means Test 2006: GATE Programme Modified 100% Universal Tuition Funding for persons wishing to pursue TLE 32

33 The GATE Programme One of the major goals created for the GATE programme was the attainment of a tertiary participation rate of 60% by By 2008, the tertiary participation rate within Trinidad and Tobago had increased to 40% (Trinidad and Tobago International Financial Centre). In addition to the increase in the tertiary participation rate, the introduction of the GATE Programme brought with it a mushrooming of private tertiary level institutions. 33

34 Table 2: Showing the Number of Participating TLIs in Trinidad and Tobago Year Number of GATE Approved Private Institutions Number of GATE Approved Public Institutions Report of the Standing Committee on the GATE Programme (2011) 34

35 Expenditure on and Beneficiaries of GATE Programme Table 3: Total Expenditure $TT (Millions) Fiscal Year Private Institutions Public Institutions Number of Students Receiving GATE Funding 2004/2005 $30 $72 27, /2006 $70 $110 38, /2007 $244 $229 57, /2008 $232 $270 53, /2009 $240 $335 52, /2010 $236 $349 53, /2011 $281 $344 45,040 Report of the Standing Committee on the GATE Programme (2011) 35

36 Income of Households Figure 3: Effect of Dollar for Dollar on the Income of Households Pursuing TLE Y r Y m Y p 50% Fees Subsidised Y 1 d Y 0 d 0 H r H m H p Financial Need 36

37 Income of Households Figure 4: Additional Funding Needed by Poorest Households for TLE Y r Y UF A Y 1 d 0 H r H m H p Financial Need 37

38 Figure 5: Effect of Oil Windfall GATE on Income of Households Pursuing TLE Income of Households Y r G Y r B Y m A Y G d Y p Y 1 d 0 H r H m H p Financial Need 38

39 Table 4: Comparison of Household Expenditure and Access to GATE by Income Group of Head and Household Income Group Income Group (TT$) Average Size of % Accessing GATE Percentage Distribution Average Monthly Household by Income Funding by Income of households by Savings per household Group of Head Group of Head Household Income Group by Household Income Group All Income Groups $ Less than 1, $ ,000-2, $ ,000-4, $ ,000-6, $ ,000-8, $ ,000-10, $ ,000-12, $ ,000-14, $ ,000-16, $ ,000-18, $ ,000-20, $ ,000-22, $ ,000-24, $ ,000 and Over $ Source: Trinidad and Tobago Household Budget Survey 2008/09 *7,090 Households Participated in this Survey 39

40 Table 5: Percentage Distribution of Household Member by Type of Government Social Program Accessed by Household Member, Income Area and Urban/Rural Classification Income Area Urban/Rural Classificaiton Type of Government Social Programmes Accessed by Household Member All Househo lds Low Middle High Urban Rural Old Age Pension Public Assistant Disability Grant TCCIP (Smart Card) Gate

41 Thank you 07/04/