Rural Broadband: How Do We Determine Impact?

Transcription

1 Rural Broadband: How Do We Determine Impact? Broadband: An Investment in the Future December 3-4, 2012 Kathryn Wood Monieson Centre Broadband Team

2 Different Types of Impact Change in economic circumstances and perhaps structure of economy Social and cultural development Financial ROI for those making investments (public and private) Community pride More vibrant civic life Different stakeholders have different priorities Local governments Upper levels of government Network operators Internet Service Providers End users Different priorities often mean different indicators.

3 Considerations when Choosing Indicators What s the indicator and what s the measure? Ex. economic growth and percentage increase in sales Quantitative and/or qualitative indicators Absolutes, percentages and indices Does data exist or can we get it? Primary and/or secondary data Coverage target populations, geography Representativeness of sample(s) How granular do we need to be? Indicator selection is a complex process. Timelines for data collection vary due to impact lag effects Are there other influences on desired indicators that we can t control? (confounding variables)

4 Broadband Strategic Research Impact Analysis Project for Province of Ontario detailed 50+ priority indicators in 4 categories: Access (12) Adoption (13) Social Impact (18) Economic Impact (16) Anticipated use in concert with Eastern Ontario Regional Network (EORN) rollout. Categories, indicators and measures took into consideration 5 critical success factors of Intelligent Communities (broadband connectivity, knowledge workforce, digital inclusion, innovation, and marketing & advocacy) Literature review findings cross-referenced against indicators, assessed by degree of impact and weighted

5 Indicators by Category Access: Supply side Indicators Availability and speed # of locations, population base & density of u/s communities 1.5 to 10 Mbps (Basic Broadband); over 10 (Ultra Broadband) as benchmark; actual-to-ub ratio Speed test results (actual to advertised; consistency) Pricing Comparable to urban areas in Ontario; flexible options BB cost compared to other communications services Service quality Speed, latency (delay), network oversubscription, packet loss Competitiveness of Markets/ISPs At least 2 ISPs in a market; monopoly impact

6 Indicators by Category Adoption: Broadband subscriptions and consumption Demand side Indicators # of subscribers by type and usage levels; % of total pop/hh Type of connection (e.g. FTTH, DSL, satellite) Consumer awareness and perceived need for connectivity Awareness levels, current use, likelihood of app adoption Barriers to broadband adoption Financial, non-financial (e.g. lack of skills, privacy concerns) Broadband adoption outside of the home/ business Presence & usage of public sites Training/digital literacy Perceived needs for training, literacy levels from tests

7 Indicators by Category Social Impacts: Educational attainment High-school graduation rates PSE enrolment Use of BB for online courses or intending to do so Population retention and stabilization Changes in community population, BB impact on migration (by age group, esp. youth) E-health impact Telemedicine utilization Impact on patient travel E-health impact on chronic health condition Challenge of confounding variables?

8 Indicators by Category Social Impacts: Social impact on service delivery Citizen perceptions, e-services use for financial & government services Impact on communications/social networks Use of social networking sites Use of BB for interpersonal communications Use for BB for online entertainment Social sustainability & community well-being Community cohesiveness Emergency communications Telecommuting Democratic engagement Quantitative and/or qualitative?

9 Indicators by Category Economic Impacts: Challenge of confounding variables? Job creation and stability EI recipients; labour force Home-based businesses (number, nature) Employment impact of the network/industry EORN rollout, ongoing (IT and knowledge-based industries) Property values and municipal tax base Residential property values (changes) Commercial and Industrial tax base (in relation to total, which includes residential)

10 Indicators by Category Economic Impacts: Does data exist or can we get it? Coverage? Economic impact on business and economic development Impact of business websites & social/interactive apps. Impact on marketing and building communities via the web Impact of internet marketing on park & rec. service usage Impact on SME formation, innovation performance & market research Economic impact on E-services Government e-services (reduced gov t costs, reduced costs for client travel) Use of business applications and impact on sales, markets etc.

11 Summary Important to identify indicators and establish baseline before infrastructure investments made Extremely difficult to establish direct causal relationships between independent and dependent variables Availability of (secondary) data can be an issue in rural areas; at least some primary research will be required Both qualitative and quantitative approaches are necessary For EORN, efforts continue to be made to fund data collection and analysis over a ten year period.

12 Broadband Impact Assessment The Big Picture Catherine Middleton Ryerson University,

13 3 Key Questions What is the context? What is broadband? Where are the data? 1

14 Context What sort of impact are we looking for? In this decision, the Commission establishes target speeds of 5 megabits per second (Mbps) downstream and 1 Mbps upstream. These speeds should be available to all Canadians (regardless of their geographic location), through a variety of technologies, by the end of the target speeds are to be the actual speeds delivered, not merely those advertised consultation 2011 regulatory decision 2

15 United States GOAL No. 1: At least 100 million U.S. homes should have affordable access to actual download speeds of at least 100 megabits per second and actual upload speeds of at least 50 megabits per second. As a milestone, by 2015, 100 million U.S. homes should have affordable access to actual download speeds of 50 Mbps and actual upload speeds of 20 Mbps. The Australian Government s aim is that, by 2020, Australia will be among the world s leading digital economies based on key indicators such as broadband penetration and usage rankings. 3

16 ITU Broadband Policies Worldwide: selected countries list Is this -----> Canada s vision? 4

17 What is broadband? Speed does matter, and 5 Mbps is s l o w It can be more than Internet access There are many different business models for delivering it 5

18 Where are the data? How well is Canada doing? Supply and demand By 2011, virtually all Canadian households had access to broadband Internet services of at least 1.5 megabits per second (Mbps), delivered by landline, mobile (HSPA+ and LTE) and satellite facilities (CMR 2012, p. i) 6

19 Data (e.g. US) US Broadband Data Improvement Act (2008) requires the FCC to compile a list of geographical areas not served by any provider of advanced telecommunications capability, and, if Census Bureau data is available, determine the population, population density and average per capita income of each unserved area. Additionally, the FCC must undertake a detailed international comparison of US broadband service capability to broadband service capability in 75 communities in at least 25 countries. Section 706 Annual Report The FCC must publish reports annually evaluating whether advanced telecommunications capability is being deployed to all Americans in a reasonable and timely fashion. The FCC plans to release an additional Notice of Inquiry to fulfill this obligation, and to integrate its broader efforts on improved data collection and the National Broadband Plan into this year s report 7

20 Data (e.g. UK) 8

21 Broadband Impact Assessment What are the benchmarks? Broadband is better than no broadband, but there are many variants (e.g. speeds, business models) Impact assessment requires comprehensive data on availability and use There is much to be done in Canada 9

22 Broadband An Investment in the Future Monieson Centre BB Impact Assessment Team Panel Presentation December 3, 2012 Queen s School of Business

23 DEMOGRAPHICS OF DEMAND SOUTH & WEST OF GTA Darkest areas represents highest (purported) no. dependents on working population Note: 2011 CSD level data not avail. (CSD equates to. township, constituent municipality within a Census Division)

24 CRTC opens public long distance telephony to competition Increase in ISPs Rural Connections CAP $31.4m + ~10% mobile penetration CRTC curtails rural BB Mobile convergence Emergence of farm/rural computer use More advanced farm/rural computer use Early age of computerenabled media Age of mobile media New partners eg, SWEA ~80% mobile penetration Since the 1900s investments in digital development and rural broadband have been viewed as providing the highest returns on knowledge mobilization for agricultural and rural development in Ontario. How these investments should happen is a widely contested question.

25 AGRI-FOOD INNOVATION & RURAL CONNECTIVITY IN ONTARIO S&W OF GTA IS STRATEGIC Agriculture and the food industry is the second largest sector of the Ontario economy. Examples of connectivity changing agri-food systems: Crop and livestock operations / decision support models typically linking handheld mobile computers with office systems Barn and equipment monitoring systems; early warning; precision agriculture Efficiency gains through internet use Electronic ordering; equipment repair on line access to manuals, parts number information and ordering of spares On demand market information; weather forecasts Digital extension / info services On-line portals for produce distribution in rural-urban networks

26 CHALLENGES FOR RURAL BROADBAND INVESTMENTS KEY TRENDS C O S T V I Z. Q U A L I T Y O F S E R V I C E Rural users in SW Ontario are increasingly annoyed with price/speed comparisons What does $50 buy? In urban areas 15Mbps (effectively $3.33/Mb). In rural areas 1.5 Mbps for (effectively $33.33/Mb) (excludes variances due to usage caps) M O B I L E & B B A P P - A T H Y Signs of rural users now adjusting their behaviour and expectations since loss of BB as essential service Fixed services necessary for routine uses not just innovation Mobile substitution = new costs Rural ISPs need more spectrum to grow service speeds

27 OPPORTUNITIES FOR RURAL BROADBAND INVESTMENTS KEY TRENDS E V I D E N C E O F P R O D U C T I V E C A P A C I T I E S B E I N G B U I L T O R B E C O M I N G M O R E E F F I C I E N T Users in SW Ontario report satisfactory to high rates of return on their investment in connectivity - Premier s agri-innovation winners - Rural health info - Education - Employment searches - E-business / buy & sell

28 CASE STUDY PRELIMINARY FINDINGS Wellington County University of Guelph MSc Candidate Wilson Halder, SSHRC supported PDG project with Monieson Centre

29

30 FINDINGS Lack of BB coverage competition available for rural Wellington County farm families to allow consumer choice continuing gap in coverage in some areas Use of 4G platform for mobile communication utilized by rural farmers for range of key operations, however BB capacity largely undervalued due to scepticism regarding its reliability on a secure network, and a lack of awareness surrounding informational, operational and innovation capabilities Due to a shortage of fixed protocol of communication and technological systems for farm delivery, smaller farms are less likely to engage in innovative ICT applications Increasing interest to seek cross platform use of information access (ie. smart phone to the tablet or PC and vice versa) for small to medium farm/rural enterprises but lack of adoption opportunities, accountability, control and trust required have prevented engagement Use of disruptive innovation as a large motivating factor for rural healthcare access through broadband provision

31 Implications Inadequate number of ISPs such as FireFly Networks to serve larger areas thereby leading to affordability and accessibility constraints for farm businesses How do I know what I don t know? Lack of surge or critical mass to uptake any particular technology or service across multiple enterprises or agencies leads to stakeholder divides which produces outdated inefficiencies along production, processing and/or distribution Absence of communication protocols and standardization that facilitate the exchange of data across multiple platforms (i.e. from smart phone to tablet to desktop) Possible Strategies for Success Encourage public sector to mobilize broadband services in the private sector (i.e. tower development) Invest in / trial partnership opportunities to strengthen innovation, and operational capabilities and awareness Development of public and private financial support for consultation opportunities to interact and participate in efforts to build farm solutions at individual, organizational and systems level within the capacity of the present broadband infrastructure Implementation of an information platform for rural ICT integration in southern Ontario can act as a innovation catalyst for connectivity without generalizing the interventions based on Wellington County's demography and infrastructure.

32 CONCLUDING REMARKS Evaluation of past investments in Ontario S&W GTA Monitoring of on-going and new investments Engage stakeholders in awareness building not just rural Complacency with existing technologies; know what you don t know Identify opportunities that have shown promise build on these

33 SHARING PRELIMINARY QUESTIONS FOR INVESTMENT MONITORING 1. To what extent did the investment program/initiative achieve its goal? 2. Who/what are the beneficiaries? How do they benefit? 3. Was the investment effective from the perspective of all stakeholders? 4. What inputs/outputs were most likely to lead to outcomes? 5. Were there other factors outside the influence of the investment that influenced outcomes? 6. What interesting stories about outcomes emerged? 7. What are the important side-effects of the investment? 8. Are outcomes sustainable? 9. How do outcomes relate to specific fixed or recurrent costs? 10.What would success in the future look like? 11.Who are potential new beneficiaries and how will they gain benefits?

34 THANK YOU. MORE INFO? Dr. Helen Hambly School of Environmental Design and Rural Development Ontario Agricultural College University of Guelph Acknowledgements to our UoG research team working on Rural Broadband and Social Media: Dr. Laxmi Pant, Dr. John Fitzsimons, Dr. Ataharul Chowdhury, Wilson Halder & collaborators in OMAFRA, Monieson Centre and Rural Ontario Institute.

35 Rural/Urban Digital Divide in Canada Olena Ivus Matthew Boland Queen s School of Business December 3, 2012

36 Outline The Economic Impact of Broadband Deployment Canada Eastern Ontario Analyze broadband coverage data Examine the rural/urban digital divide in Canada Examine broadband deployment across Ontario Evaluate economic impact Olena Ivus

37 Outline The Economic Impact of Broadband Deployment Canada Eastern Ontario Analyze broadband coverage data Examine the rural/urban digital divide in Canada Examine broadband deployment across Ontario Evaluate economic impact Olena Ivus

38 The National Broadband Coverage Data Compiled by the CRTC and Industry Canada Two rounds: 1 November 2005: 5,426 communities 2 July 2009-March 2012: 49,999 hexagons (17,737 communities) DSL, Cable, and Wireless Broadband availability variable is binary Olena Ivus

39 The National Broadband Coverage Data Compiled by the CRTC and Industry Canada Two rounds: 1 November 2005: 5,426 communities 2 July 2009-March 2012: 49,999 hexagons (17,737 communities) DSL, Cable, and Wireless Broadband availability variable is binary Analyze 4,541 communities present in both rounds: 1 Urban: 472 CMAs 2 Rural: 3,942 non-cmas 76 Economic Regions Olena Ivus

40 Average Broadband Availability by Technology / /03 DSL Cable Wireless Olena Ivus

41 Broadband Index by Rural/Urban Status Examine broadband coverage across all three technologies The Broadband Index: average of DSL, Cable, and Wireless availability Olena Ivus

42 Broadband Index by Rural/Urban Status Examine broadband coverage across all three technologies The Broadband Index: average of DSL, Cable, and Wireless availability Rural (Non-CMAs) Urban (CMAs) Rural (Non-CMAs) Urban (CMAs) Fraction Fraction Broadband Index, 2005/11 Graphs by cma Broadband Index, 2012/03 Graphs by cma Olena Ivus

43 Broadband Index by Rural/Urban Status The rural/urban digital gap has widened or narrowed, depending on the measure used. The divide has narrowed as of March 2012, when the fraction of communities with no access to broadband are compared. Rural (Non-CMAs) Urban (CMAs) Rural (Non-CMAs) Urban (CMAs) Fraction % 22.2% Fraction % 1.5% Broadband Index, 2005/11 Graphs by cma Broadband Index, 2012/03 Graphs by cma Olena Ivus

44 Broadband Index by Rural/Urban Status The rural/urban digital gap has widened or narrowed, depending on the measure used. The divide has narrowed as of March 2012, when the fraction of communities with no access to broadband are compared. Rural (Non-CMAs) Urban (CMAs) Rural (Non-CMAs) Urban (CMAs) Fraction % 28.6% 22.2% Fraction % 9.3% 1.5% Broadband Index, 2005/11 Graphs by cma Broadband Index, 2012/03 Graphs by cma Olena Ivus

45 Rural/Urban Digital Divide The two-pronged definition does not account for multiplicity of coverage types. It is only accurate if coverage of areas within communities does not differ by technology types. Olena Ivus

46 Rural/Urban Digital Divide The two-pronged definition does not account for multiplicity of coverage types. It is only accurate if coverage of areas within communities does not differ by technology types. Broadband Index November 2005 March 2012 Rural (3,942 Non-CMAs) Urban (472 CMAs) Rural/Urban difference Note: denotes 1% significance level. Olena Ivus

47 Changes in Rural/Urban Divide Broadband Deployment Rate Coeff. St.errors Rural Post-2005 period Rural Post-2005 period Economic Regions (75) yes Constant Number of observations 8,522 Note: denotes 1% significance level. Olena Ivus

48 Changes in Rural/Urban Divide Broadband Deployment Rate Coeff. St.errors Rural Post-2005 period Rural Post-2005 period Economic Regions (75) yes Constant Number of observations 8,522 Note: denotes 1% significance level. The rate of growth of the rural/urban digital divide has declined in recent years. Olena Ivus

49 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

50 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

51 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

52 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

53 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

54 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

55 Broadband Deployment Rate June November 2005 November March 2012 Mean Broadband Deployment Rate (% per year) Rural Urban Rural Urban Olena Ivus

56 Ontario Total: 1,604 communities East (EORN): 460 communities North (NE and NW): 392 communities South-West: 354 communities The Remainder: 398 communities Olena Ivus

57 Ontario Broadband Deployment Rate Model 1 Model 2 East North South-West Post-2005 period East Post-2005 period North Post-2005 period South-West Post-2005 period Economic Regions (11) yes Constant Note: and denote 1% and 5% significance level respectively. Olena Ivus

58 Conclusion Rural communities are lagging behind their urban counterparts in terms of broadband coverage. The rural/urban digital divide has: narrowed as of March 2012, when the fraction of communities with no broadband access are compared. widened when multiplicity of coverage types is accounted for. The rate of growth in rural/urban digital divide has declined. We attribute this declining growth to government initiatives undertaken after 2005 to increase broadband coverage in rural communities. Without these initiatives, the rural/urban divide would have been significantly wider. Across Ontario, broadband deployment increased significantly after 2005 only in Eastern Ontario. Olena Ivus