Greenhouse Development Rights

Transcription

1 Greenhouse Development Rights A approach to equitable global burden-sharing Climate Change and the Road to Rio October 2011 Algiers, Algeria Tom Athanasiou EcoEquity

2 Sea level rising faster than expected Sea level changes, compared to IPCC AR-4 (2007) projections, from Garnaut Review 2011

3 Implication of 1 meter rise Nile Delta 2000

4 Implication of 1 meter rise Nile Delta 1 meter 2000sea level increase IPCC-AR4: m by 2100 Post-AR4: 0.8 to 2.4 m by 2100 (Hansen: several meters )

5 Drought Potential latest projections

6 Emission pathways

7 Why shoot for 350 ppm? Phenomenon Target CO 2 (ppm) 1. Arctic Sea Ice Ice Sheets/Sea Level Shifting Climatic Zones Alpine Water Supplies Avoid Ocean Acidification Initial Target CO 2 = 350 ppm* * still possible with major afforestation effort * assumes CH 4, O 3, Black Soot decrease

8 Emission pathways the details AOSIS Parties agree that global emissions should peak by no later than 2015 and will need to be reduced by at least 85 percent below 1990 levels by IPCC Likely (barely) Any emissions pathway to the right of this line would have a greater than 66% chance of exceeding 2C. It would not be considered by the IPCC to be likely to not exceed 2C. G8 2C Coin toss This pathway, widely supported by G8 governments, has a greater than 50% chance of exceeding 2C. Peaking year Maximum annual rate of decline 6.25 percent 5.5 percent 5 percent Budget ( ) (GtCO2eq) Budget ( ) (GtCO2eq) 1,428 1,669 2,058 Budget ( ) (GtCO2eq) 1,509 1,820 2, emissions (GtCO2eq) emissions (GtCO2eq) emissions (GtCO2eq) Probability of exceeding 2C 22 percent 32 percent 55 percent

9 UNEP Emissions Gap UNEP 2010, Emissions Gap report

10 Planetary Boundaries

11 The climate challenge: a simplified view 60 Annual global emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr)

12 The climate challenge: a simplified view 60 Annual global emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr)

13 The climate challenge: a simplified view 60 Annual global emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr)

14 The climate challenge: a simplified view 60 Annual global emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr) What kind of global climate deal can enable this to happen?

15 in the midst of a development crisis? 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels About 800 million people chronically undernourished More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water 2 million children die per year from diarrhea 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases More than 1.5 billion people without electricity 15

16 and after the age of cheap energy So, we are saying, [the] cheap energy age is simply over. And we have to accept that. And we have to live with these higher prices Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director, International Energy Agency

17 The Greenhouse Development Rights approach to burden-sharing in a global climate regime Defines the burden to be shared: the science, and keeping within global budget constraints Defines and calculates national obligations with respect to a development threshold Exempts people with incomes & emissions below the development threshold from any climate-related obligations. Obliges people with incomes & emissions above the threshold to share the global costs of an emergency climate program

18 The Greenhouse Development Rights burden-sharing approach Define National Obligations (national share of global mitigation and adaptation costs) based on: Capacity: resources to pay w/o sacrificing necessities We use income, excluding income below a development threshold of $20/day ($7,500/year, PPP) Responsibility: contribution to climate change We use cumulative CO 2 emissions, excluding subsistence emissions (i.e., emissions corresponding to consumption below the development threshold) 18

19 Income and Capacity income distributions (relative to a development threshold ) 19

20 Emissions and Responsibility fossil CO 2 (since 1990) (showing portion defined as responsibility ) 20

21 Carbon budget and GDRs: a comparison

22 A development threshold? What should a Right to Development safeguard? Traditional poverty line: $1/day? $2/day? ( destitution line and extreme poverty line of World Bank, UNDP, etc.) Empirical analysis: $16/day ( global poverty line, after Pritchett/World Bank (2006)) Consider a development threshold 25% above global poverty line about $20/day ($7,500/yr; PPP-adjusted) 22

23 Allocating global mitigation obligations among countries according to responsibility & capacity

24 National obligations to act (2010, global) based on national capacity and responsibility Population % Income ($/capita) Capacity % Responsibility % RCI (obligations) % EU , EU , EU , Arab League , United States , China , India , South Africa , Mexico , LDCs , Annex I , Non-Annex I , High Income , Upper Mid Income , Lower Mid Income , Low Income , World 100% 9, % 100 % 100 %

25 National obligations to act (global) showing indicative projections for 2020 & 2030 Population % Income ($/capita) Capacity % Responsibility % Responsibly and Capacity Index (obligations) % EU , EU , EU , Arab League , United States , China , India , South Africa , Mexico , LDCs , Annex I , Non-Annex I , High Income , Up Middle Income , Low Middle Income , Low Income , World 100% 9, % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

26 Obligation to act (2010, Arab League) Population (%) Income ($/capita) Capacity (%) Responsibility (%) Obligation to act RCI (%) Algeria , Bahrain , Comoros , Djibouti , Egypt , Iraq , Jordan , Kuwait , Lebanon Libya , Mauritania , Morocco , Oman , Palestine , Qatar , Saudi Arabia , Somalia Sudan & South Sudan , Syria , Tunisia , UAE , Yemen , Regional ,

27 GDRs allocation for the US

28 GDR allocation for the US With indicative domestic / international division

29 GDR allocation for the US With indicative luxury emissions

30 Final Comments The scientific evidence is unambiguous. Carbon-based growth is no longer an option. This is true in the North, and in the South, and in the oil-exporting world. The coming transition will not be the end of the world. We have the science, technology, and money to make it work for us all. The problem is economic, and political. Political realism is not climate realism. The climate system does not negotiate. The political parameters, though, have often changed. And they will change again. The climate crisis is a global commons problem. Neither equity nor perceived equity is optional. The burden-sharing problem is a fundamental one, and this means both sides of the burden sharing problem North/South and rich/poor. Today, the North is blocking the progress of the negotiations. But in the long run, which is coming right up, there will be no viable way forward unless everyone does their share. Equitable access to sustainable development means both equitable access to atmospheric space, and to the finance and technology necessary to develop within that space. A fair climate regime does not seem likely, but the alternative is the failure to stabilize the climate system. And this increasingly seems to imply an utter catastrophe. The Arab region is in a position to lead. It would be noticed.