INVERNESS & NAIRN ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2003

Transcription

1 NETWORK ECONOMIC INFORMATION INVERNESS & NAIRN ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2003 HIGHLIGHTS The population of Inverness & Nairn in 2001 was 77,647, an increase of 6.6% from 1991 and higher than the growth of 0.8% experienced by the HIE area. The population of Inverness & Nairn is younger than the HIE area in general, with a mean age of 39.2 years. There is an overall trend towards an ageing population. The unemployment rate for Inverness & Nairn is generally lower than that for the HIE area and slightly less seasonal. In August 2003 the unemployment rate was 2.%. Male unemployment is more seasonal and has decreased at a faster rate than female unemployment over the time period 2001 to Figures for August 2003 show unemployment at 3.6% for males and 1.2% for females. In Inverness & Nairn the average gross weekly earnings were 402 per week in This is higher than the average earnings in the HIE area in 2001, but lower than the average earnings in Scotland and GB. The Public Administration, Education & Health sector is the biggest employer with 29.6% of the total workforce, followed closely by the Wholesale, Hotels & Restaurants sector. Females largely dominate these sectors. Most employees (2.1%) work in companies with 49 or fewer employees, although the percentage of employees working in firms with more than 100 employees (3.7%) is the largest in the HIE area. Inverness & Nairn had an average business start-up rate of 4 per 1,000 population in 2002, higher than the average for the HIE area and Scotland. 1

2 INTRODUCTION This document provides information and analysis on the socio-economic profile of the Inverness & Nairn Enterprise area (INE). The data is mainly derived from the 2001 Census undertaken by the General Register s Office for Scotland (GROS) and from other national surveys undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Where possible the most recent and accurate available data has been used. POPULATION Table 1 shows the change in resident population in INE, compared to the HIE area and Scotland from 1991 to The population of the INE area was 77,647 in 2001, accounting for 17.9% of the total HIE area population. Table 1: Resident Population, * 2001 Change % Change (1991 base) INE 72,809 77,647 4, HIE 430, ,74 3, Scotland,083,330,062,011-21, Source: GROS 2001 Census *Based on non-revised 1991 Census population for LEC & HIE, but revised 1991 Census population for Scotland. The INE area has experienced population growth of 6.6% since 1991, the highest growth rate of all the LEC areas and thus higher than the growth experienced by the HIE area of 0.8%. This is partly driven by the in-migration of people from outwith the HIE area, attracted by low property prices and perceived quality of life, and inmigration of people from within the HIE area, attracted by economic opportunities. Age Structure Table 2 shows the changing age structure of the INE area as a percentage of the total population, compared to the HIE area and Scotland. Table 2: Distribution of Population by Age, (% of total population) Age Group INE 1991 * INE 2001 HIE 2001 Scotland Source: GROS 2001 Census *Based on non-revised 1991 Census population figures. The percentage of the population aged 44 years or less has decreased in the INE area from 63.8% in 1991 to 8.7% in This is slightly higher than that for HIE area as a whole, which was 6% in The percentage of the population aged 6 years or older in INE has increased from 14.4% in 1991 to 1.8% in This is lower 2

3 than the percentage in the HIE area, which was 17.2% in As a result, INE is shown to have a younger population than the HIE area. Nevertheless, there is an overall trend towards an ageing population. UNEMPLOYMENT Figure 1 shows the unemployment rate for INE compared to the HIE area from January 2001 to August Figure 1: Unemployment Rates, HIE INE Source: NOMIS (ONS) Note: LEC rates estimated using GROS Census 2001 population. The unemployment rate for the INE area is shown to follow a similar trend as the HIE area, although the unemployment rate in INE tends to be slightly lower. The unemployment trend in INE is seasonal by nature and this indicates a reliance on seasonal activity, in particular tourism and the primary sector. The highest unemployment rates can be seen at the start of the time period covered, in January This was influenced by redundancies made by Barmac at Ardersier oil fabrication yard the previous year. Overall, the unemployment rate has decreased over the time period shown, falling from 4.1% in January 2001 to 3.1% (1,491 claimants) in January This is a reflection of the recent growth in economic opportunities in INE, including the recent expansion of Inverness Medical. Unemployment by TTWA Unemployment rates based on the claimant count are provided by NOMIS for Travel to Work Areas (TTWA s). The Inverness TTWA incorporates a large area, including the former Nairn District Council and part of the Black Isle in Ross & Cromarty. Figure 2 highlights the unemployment rate for the Inverness TTWA compared to the HIE area from January 2001 to August

4 Figure 2: Unemployment Rates by TTWA, Inverness 4 HIE Source: NOMIS (ONS) Note: Figures based on latest estimates, and pending revision. The figure illustrates that the Inverness TTWA unemployment rate has been consistently below that of the HIE area over the time period shown. The trend is similar to that of the HIE area in terms of seasonality and both are shown to be decreasing over the time period, from 4% in January 2001 to 3.1% in January This is influenced by the general growth in economic opportunities experienced within the INE area. Unemployment by Gender Figure 3 shows the male and female unemployment trends for the INE area from January 2001 to August

5 Figure 3: Male and Female Unemployment Rates, Male Female All Source: NOMIS (ONS) Note: Rates estimated using GROS Census 2001 population. Typifying most unemployment trends, the male unemployment rate is higher than the female unemployment rate. Male unemployment is also shown to be more seasonal, indicating a reliance on tourism activities for employment. On the whole, male unemployment has decreased by from 6.% in January 2001 to 4.7% in January 2003, which is more than the decrease of female unemployment from 1.6% to 1.4% over the same time period. INCOME Table 3 shows the average gross weekly earnings in INE for Table 3: Average Gross Weekly Earnings, Earnings as a % of: Area 2001 ( ) HIE Scotland GB INE Source: New Earnings Survey In INE the average gross weekly earnings were 402 per week in This is higher than the average earnings in the HIE area in 2001, but slightly lower than the average earnings in Scotland and significantly lower than the average earnings in GB. GROSS VALUE ADDED Gross value added (GVA) is a measure of the income generated by businesses after the subtraction of input costs (excluding wage and capital investment costs). Table 4 shows the gross value added per full-time employee for the Highland Council area in 2000, compared to Scotland. This is a useful measure of productivity.

6 Table 4: Gross Value Added per Full-Time Employee, 2000 Area GVA per Full-Time Employee ( ) Manufacturing Services Highland 27,778 1,60 Scotland 36,799 18,781 Source: Scottish Executive, Scottish Production Database & Scottish Services Database The table highlights that the Highland Council area has a lower GVA per full-time employee than Scotland for both Manufacturing and Services. This suggests that productivity is slightly lower in the Highland area, and therefore in INE, compared to Scotland. The difference is greatest within Manufacturing, where GVA per full time employee is 27,778 in the Highland area, compared to 36,799 in Scotland. This is influenced by the nature of the Manufacturing sector in the Highland area relative to Scotland. In the Highland area, the Manufacturing sector tends to be centred on activities with outputs of low monetary value, e.g., food and drink processing. Additionally, the Manufacturing firms tend to be smaller in the HIE area, thus are less likely to benefit from economies of scale. Nevertheless, in line with the overall trend for Scotland, the GVA per full-time employee in the manufacturing sector is almost twice the level of the services sector. EMPLOYMENT Figure 4 illustrates the distribution of employment by sector in INE and the HIE area for Figure 4: Sector of Employment, INE HIE Source: GROS 2001 Census 6

7 In the INE area the Public Administration, Education and Health sector, accounts for 29.6% of the total workforce (2.1% higher than that for the HIE area). This is influenced by the large number of public bodies being located in the INE area, including Raigmore Hospital, Highlands and Islands Enterprise and the Highland Council. The Wholesale, Hotels and Restaurants sector accounts for 2% of those economically active (2.9% higher than that for the HIE area). This highlights the importance of tourist activities within INE. The 2002 Highland Visitor Survey found that the average tourist staying overnight in the Highlands and interviewed in Inverness and Nairn stayed for 3.4 days in the Inverness and Nairn area and spent an average of 11 per day. The main activity in the area, as in other parts of the Highlands, was general sightseeing. Other key activities were visiting castles, monuments, museums, art galleries and archaeological sites more likely to be done by visitors to the Inverness and Nairn area than in other areas. There was a downturn in employment within the Manufacturing sector after the closure of Ardersier oil-fabrication yard by Barmac, along with other closures. Despite this, employment opportunities have since been created through the growth of Inverness Medical. There has also been growth in the retail industry, together with growth in e-commerce within the area. In INE, self-employment accounts for 8.1% of those aged (10.6% in the HIE area). Part-time employment accounts for 13.2% of those aged (13% in the HIE area) and full-time employment accounts for 42.4% of those aged (38.% in the HIE area). Table provides a more detailed account of employment by sector, highlighting the employment division by gender in INE for Table : Employment in Sectors by Gender, 2001 Sector Male Female Total Percentage Agriculture and Fishing , Manufacturing 2, , Energy & Water Construction 2, , Wholesale, Hotels & Restaurants 4,372 4,980 9, Transport & Communications 2, , Banking, Finance & Real Estate, etc. 2,333 2,004 4, Public Admin., Education & Health 3,44 7,0 11, Other Sectors 1,22 1,001 2, Total 19,7 17,68 37, Source: GROS 2001 Census Note: Numbers may not total due to errors in rounding percentages. In line with other areas the service sectors, particularly Wholesale, Hotels & Restaurants and Public Administration, Education & Health, are dominated by females (there are 1.6 females for every male employed). Conversely, the 7

8 Agriculture & Fishing, Manufacturing, Energy & Water, Construction and Transport & Communications sectors show 3.8 males for every female employed. Employment by Company Size Figure shows the employment breakdown for businesses by sizeband in 2001, not including self-employed. Figure : Employment by Sizeband, INE HIE to 4 to to 24 2 to 49 0 to plus Source: 2001 ABI (NOMIS) No.of Employees in Company In 2001, the largest percentage of employees (3.7%) worked in a company with more than 100 employees, a higher percentage than for any of the other LEC s in the HIE area. This reflects the area s position as the main settlement in the HIE area. Nevertheless, 2.1% of employees work in firms with 49 or less employees. Thus, small firms are still a dominant feature of the economy in INE. Business Starts Figure 6 shows the quarterly rate of new business start-ups per 1,000 population in INE and the HIE area from 2002 to

9 Figure 6: Rate of New Business Start by Area, INE HIE Q1/2002 Q2/2002 Q3/2002 Q4/2002 Q1/2003 Source: Committee of Scottish Clearing Banks Table 6 shows the number of new business start-ups per 1,000 population in INE, the HIE area and Scotland in Table 6: New Business Start-Ups by Area, 2002 Area Start-Ups Start-Ups per 1,000 Population * INE HIE 1, Scotland 18, Source: Committee of Scottish Clearing Banks *Figures estimated using population from GROS Census 2001 The INE area had an average business start-up rate of 4 per 1,000 population in 2002, higher than the average for HIE and Scotland. E-BUSINESS Table 7 provides information from the 2003 E-Business Survey. From the businesses surveyed, it looks at the percentage within INE and the HIE area who have access to the Internet, have their own website, and use broadband. In addition it looks at the percentage of businesses which have facilities for making payments to suppliers online and allowing customers to order or make payments on-line. Table 7: E-Business, 2003 Area Access to Internet Website Adoption Broadband Make Payments to Suppliers On-Line Allow Customers to Order On-Line Allow Customers to Pay On-Line INE 67% 39% 14% 18% 14% 9% HIE 72% 42% % 20% 1% 12% Source: Highlands and Islands Enterprise E-Business Survey 9

10 Table 7 illustrates that e-business adoption rates in the INE area different to those in the HIE area. The most significant difference is in broadband use, which at 14% is almost three times the HIE rate. Broadband connection is most prevalent in the service sector. Despite this, the figures show that on the whole in INE there are slightly lower levels of e-business adoption than in the HIE area, for example, in INE, only 67% of businesses have access to the Internet, compared to 72% in the HIE area. SUMMARY The population of the INE area is growing rapidly. While the population profile in INE is younger than that in the HIE area, there is still evidence of an ageing population. The unemployment rates in INE tend to be slightly lower than that for the HIE area, and show seasonality. A reliance on tourism can explain the high percentage of employment within the Wholesale, Hotels and Restaurants sector. The Public Administration, Education and Health sector, however, is still the largest employer, with many public bodies being located in the INE area. While the redundancies made by Barmac at Ardersier created unemployment, new employment opportunities have been created, notably through the expansion of the retail sector and the growth of Inverness Medical. The average gross weekly earnings are higher in INE than the HIE area in general. There is also a large percentage of people employed in firms with over 100 employees, compared to the HIE area as a whole, but small firms still dominate employment. The business start-up rate (4 per 1,000 population) is slightly higher than the average for the HIE area, reflecting the fastgrowing nature of the INE economy. Despite the growth, INE still lags behind the average level of e-business adoption in the HIE area. CONTACT INFORMATION If Network staff have any queries about the information contained in this document, or any other economic issues, please contact HIE s Strategic Planning and Research Team: Senior Economist Alastair Nicolson (01463) ai.nicolson@hient.co.uk Economist Claire McDonald (01463) claire.mcdonald@hient.co.uk Research Assistant Heather Taylor (01463) h.taylor@hient.co.uk 10