RESEARCH PAPER GROUP LIFE WAIVER STUDY BASED ON CANADIAN GROUP LTD TERMINATION EXPERIENCE

Transcription

1 RESEARCH PAPER GROUP LIFE WAIVER STUDY BASED ON CANADIAN GROUP LTD TERMINATION EXPERIENCE COMMITTEE ON EXPECTED EXPERIENCE GROUP LIFE AND HEALTH NOVEMBER Canadian Institute of Actuaries Document Cette publication est disponible en français Canadian Institute of Actuaries Institut Canadien des Actuaires

2 Canadian Institute of Actuaries Institut Canadien des Actuaires MEMORANDUM To: From: CIA Members Practising in the Group Life Insurance Area Peter Muirhead Committee on Expected Experience Group Life and Health Date: November 5, 2001 Subject: Research Paper: Group Life Waiver Study Based On Canadian Group LTD Termination Experience Most Group Life Waiver of Premium (Life Waiver) liabilities are calculated based on the 1970 Intercompany Group Life Waiver of Premium Table, authored by Raymond Krieger (Krieger Table). This table was based on US experience between 1955 and 1964 and although out-of-date there have not been any industry studies that provide a better basis. This research paper utilizes a recent CIA disability study to develop a table that could be used as a base for calculating Life Waiver liabilities. Although the CIA disability study used Canadian Group Long-Term Disability (LTD) data, we think it is applicable for many Life Waiver plans since many now have definitions of disability that are similar to LTD plans. The tables presented in this paper are graduated to the observed recovery and death rates and contain no margins. The raw exposure, termination and death data are available from the CIA s website in spreadsheet format. They can be found at < Any comments or suggestions on this paper would be appreciated. Please forward them to Peter Muirhead at his Yearbook address. PM Secretariat: Albert, Ottawa, ON K1R 7X7 (613) FAX: (613)

3 GROUP LIFE WAIVER STUDY BASED ON CANADIAN GROUP LTD TERMINATION EXPERIENCE 1. INTRODUCTION Most Group Life Waiver of Premium (Life Waiver) liabilities are calculated based on the 1970 Intercompany Group Life Waiver of Premium Table, authored by Raymond Krieger (Krieger Table). This table was based on US experience between 1955 and 1964 and although out-of-date there have not been any industry studies that provide a better basis. In 1998, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) published a Group Long-Term Disability (LTD) Termination Experience Study ( ) which separated terminations due to deaths from other LTD terminations. Since many Life Waiver plans now have a definition of disability that is consistent with LTD plans, the LTD study can be used as a basis for developing a Life Waiver valuation table. 2. COMPARISONS OF THE STUDIES The 1970 study (Krieger Table) did provide both a basic table (without margins) and a valuation table, which included margins; a margin for mortality (valuation mortality assumption equals 1 of base mortality assumption), and a 40% margin for recoveries (valuation recovery assumption equals 60% of base recovery assumption). For comparative purposes this paper uses the basic table (without margins) to compare to the recent Canadian study. Differences between the recent Canadian study and the Krieger Table are significant and could be attributed to many reasons, some of which are:! Since 1965 there have been many technological advances that; cure the disabilities, assist in the recovery from disability, allow the workplace to be modified to accommodate some disabilities, or extend the lifetime of disabled individuals.! The common definition of disability has changed from any occupation to own occupation for an initial period (often 24 months) before reverting to the more stringent any occupation definition. As a result, the average Waiver claimant during an own occupation period can be considered to be less disabled than during an any occupation period and hence have lower expected mortality.! Insurers are generally more involved in the disability management now than they were 30 years ago.! Krieger Table does not differentiate by gender. 3

4 Canadian Study The Canadian study is based on the experience of 22 Canadian insurers and represented approximately 70% of the Long-Term Disability (LTD) coverage in Canada. In total over 165,000 claims were included in the study. The terminations were separated between deaths, recoveries and expiry (i.e., usually attainment of age 65). The CIA study also separated the experience by gender and elimination period. The exposure, termination and death data are included in Appendix G, and comparisons to the Krieger Basic Table are included in Appendix H. Findings! Relative to the Krieger Basic Table, the recovery rates observed in the CIA study rates were significantly higher and the mortality rates were significantly lower.! The resulting Life Waiver liabilities calculated from the CIA study are significantly less than the liabilities calculated under the Krieger Basic Table.! The recovery rates of male and female disabled individuals were not significantly different.! Death rates of males and females were significantly different, with male rates being approximately twice female rates. This relationship is consistent with non-disabled mortality rates.! The recovery rates had spikes at durations consistent with the change in definition of disability from own occupation to any occupation. Spikes occur at 24 months since the disability and at 24 months after the elimination period. This can be attributed to the different approaches in use in determining when the change in definition of disability is applied.! The recovery rates in the first month of claim eligibility are lower than the second month of claim eligibility. This result was consistent for all elimination periods.! Mortality peaked shortly after the disability. Using the Results An actuary intending to use the results for pricing or valuation should be aware of the following:! The underlying experience represents a blend of many different and evolving claim management practices related specifically to LTD. To the extent that disability termination rates are expected to be different for a specific block of Waiver claims, adjustments would need to be made.! Since the results are based on LTD experience, the findings are most relevant for plans with typical LTD definitions of disability.! For plans with an any occupation definition of disability, lower recovery rates and higher mortality rates would be appropriate in the first three years of disability.! For plans with the waiver benefit not connected to the LTD benefit (e.g. different insurers), lower recovery rates and higher mortality rates may be appropriate due to: a) under-reporting (to the insurer), b) lack of access to LTD disability management programs.! Many Waiver claimants would be eligible for a Life conversion when their benefits expire (usually at age 65). The valuation might wish to incorporate the cost of this conversion option. 4

5 3. GRADUATION OF TABLE The graduated recovery and mortality rate tables are included in Appendix A. The rates were graduated using three dimensional regression and tested by; comparing the observed mortality and recovery rates to the graduated values (in the many charts included in this paper), and comparing the liabilities generated by using the observed mortality and recovery rates, to the liabilities generated by using the graduated rates. A special adjustment for recoveries at the time that the definition of disability changes from own occupation to any occupation was necessary. This was done by using an additive adjustment to the recovery rates at the change in definition of disability period. In the graduation process various weights were applied to account for the various timing and administration differences in applying the change in definition of disability. The assumed time periods of the change in definition of disability was effective was at 24 months since the disability, and after 24, 25 and 26 months since the end of the elimination period. Most plans have either a change in definition at 24 months since the disability, or 24 months from the end of the elimination period. It appears from the data that there was also a lag in processing some of these terminations. The ultimate mortality rates (beyond ten years after disability) were graduated into the Canadian Life Table ( ) at age 77. When rates are averaged over ages or durations, the weights that are applied are the exposures from the CIA study. Mortality The chart below illustrates the effect of duration since disability on mortality rates. The chart combines all ages and all elimination periods. Charts for separate ages and elimination periods are included in Appendix B. All charts include the observed male and female rates, the Krieger Basic Table and the graduated rates. All Ages monthly mortality rate Male (actual) Female (actual) Krieger (basic) Male (graduated) Female (graduated).000 5

6 Illustrated below are the graduated male mortality rates. Female rates have a similar shape, but are uniformly lower than the male rates. Evident in these charts is a peak in mortality shortly after the disability with a shortening time period of the peak as the age at disability increases. Male Mortality Rates.009 Rate of Mortality (monthly) months since disablement under and over age at disability Recovery The chart below illustrates the effect of duration since disability on recovery rates. The chart combines all ages and all elimination periods. Charts for separate ages and elimination periods are included in Appendix C. The observed recovery rates have a number of spikes due the mixture of elimination periods and different approaches used to determine when the change in definition from own occupation to any occupation is applied. The change in definition spikes were included in the graduation as an additive adjustment at the point the definition was assumed to be applied. All Ages, All Elimination Periods monthly recovery rate Male (actual) Female (actual) Krieger (basic) Unisex (graduated).00 6

7 Illustrated below are the graduated unisex recovery rates, excluding the recoveries due to the change in definition. Recovery Rates (excludes additional recovery at "change in definition").160 Rate of Recovery (monthly) months since disablement under and over age at disability The assumed recovery rates due to the change in definition are shown below. These recovery rates would be added to the base rates in the month that the change in definition applies. Additional Recovery at Change of Definition recovery rate under and over Age at Disability First month of exposure The recovery rates during the month following the elimination period are consistently lower than the graduated values. This was consistent across all elimination periods, and was only apparent in the one month following the elimination period. 7

8 Expected Reasons for Terminations Another way of comparing experience is to compare the outcomes of disabled lives. Once a disability occurs, one of three outcomes will happen. They will either remain disabled until their benefits expire (usually age 65), recover from their disability or die while disabled. The following chart compares the likelihood expected from the Krieger Basic Table to the CIA study results. Comparisons at various ages and durations of disability are included in Appendix D. 100% Likelihood of Events All Ages, All Elimination Periods, All Durations 90% 80% 70% 51% 58% 44% Attains age 65 while disabled Likelihood 60% 50% 40% 17% Recovery Death prior to age 65 20% 39% 10% 0% 19% 12% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table These charts illustrate that the likelihood of remaining disabled until age 65 under the Krieger assumptions are similar to the recent Canadian experience. However, the Krieger Table assumes a much larger proportion of disabled individuals will die, and a much lower proportion will recover. 8

9 Impact on Liabilities The following charts illustrate the impact on the Life Waiver Liability of using the various assumptions. The liabilities have been calculated based on:! Life coverage to age 65;! any occupation definition of disability after 24 months following the elimination period;! 6% interest discount rate;! no margins have been added to the mortality or recovery rates. The following charts compare the liability calculated on the Krieger Basic Table to the liability calculated on the CIA study results. Comparisons at various ages and durations of disability are included in Appendix E and Appendix F. 400 Average Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount All Elimination Periods, All Durations Liability (per $1000 face amount) under Age at Disablement 300 Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount all ages, all elimination periods, all durations (at 6% discount rate) Liability per $ CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 9

10 APPENDIX A GRADUATED MORTALITY AND RECOVERY RATES Male Mortality Rates (select period first 10 years of disability) Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year

11 Female Mortality Rates (select period first 10 years of disability) Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year

12 Recovery Rates (unisex select period first 10 years of disability) Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year Adjustments Multiplicative adjustment in 1 st month after elimination period Additive adjustment for month of change in definition

13 Ultimate Rates (beyond 10 years after disability) Age Recovery (unisex) Mortality (Male) Mortality (Female) Age Mortality (Male) Mortality (Female)

14 APPENDIX B GRAPHICAL DISPLAY OF GRADUATION OF MORTALITY RATES Mortality Rates separate by age at disability.020 Age at Disability (under age 25) Male (actual) Female (actual).020 Age at Disability (25-29) monthly mortality rate Krieger (basic) Male (graduated) Female (graduated) monthly mortality rate Age at Disability (30-34) Age at Disability (35-39) monthly mortality rate monthly mortality rate Age at Disability (40-44) Age at Disability (45-49) monthly mortality rate monthly mortality rate

15 Mortality Rates separated by age at disability (continued) Age at Disability (50-54) Age at Disability (55-59) monthly mortality rate monthly mortality rate Age at Disability (60-64) Ultimate Mortality (over 10 years since disability) monthly mortality rate monthly mortality rate attained age 15

16 APPENDIX C GRAPHICAL DISPLAY OF GRADUATION OF RECOVERY RATES Recovery Rates separate by age at disability monthly recovery rate Age at Disability (under age 25) All Elimination Periods Male (actual) Female (actual) Krieger (basic) Unisex (graduated) monthly recovery rate Age at Disability (25-29) All Elimination Periods Age at Disability (30-34) All Elimination Periods Age at Disability (35-39) All Elimination Periods monthly recovery rate monthly recovery rate Age at Disability (40-44) All Elimination Periods Age at Disability (45-49) All Elimination Periods monthly recovery rate monthly recovery rate

17 Recovery Rates separated by age at disability (continued) Age at Disability (50-54) All Elimination Periods Age at Disability (55-59) All Elimination Periods monthly recovery rate monthly recovery rate Age at Disability (60-64) All Elimination Periods.0035 Ultimate Recovery (over 10 years since disability) {note the change in scale of the vertical axis} monthly recovery rate monthly recovery rate attained age Recovery Rates separated by elimination period Age at Disability (all ages) 4 Month Elimination Period Age at Disability (all ages) 6 Month Elimination Period monthly recovery rate monthly recovery rate

18 APPENDIX D GRAPHICAL DISPLAY OF LIKELIHOOD OF EVENTS Measured from beginning of 6 month elimination period, separate by age at disability Age at Disability (under age 25) 6 Month Elimination Period Age at Disability (25-29) 6 Month Elimination Period 100% 90% 3% 4% 4% 100% 90% 5% 7% 5% Likelihood 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 89% 91% 74% Attains age 65 while disabled Recovery Death prior to age 65 Likelihood 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 86% 87% 63% 20% 10% 0% 8% 5% 22% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 20% 10% 0% 9% 6% 32% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table Age at Disability (30-34) 6 Month Elimination Period Age at Disability (35-39) 6 Month Elimination Period 100% 90% 6% 9% 7% 100% 90% 9% 12% 10% 80% 80% Likelihood 70% 60% 50% 40% 82% 83% 54% Likelihood 70% 60% 50% 40% 77% 79% 45% 20% 39% 20% 45% 10% 0% 12% 8% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 10% 0% 14% 9% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table Age at Disability (40-44) 6 Month Elimination Period Age at Disability (45-49) 6 Month Elimination Period 100% 90% 13% 16% 13% 100% 90% 18% 23% 21% 80% 80% Likelihood 70% 60% 50% 40% 71% 73% 36% Likelihood 70% 60% 50% 40% 63% 65% 24% 20% 51% 20% 55% 10% 0% 16% 11% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 10% 0% 19% 12% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 18

19 Measured from beginning of elimination period, separate by age at disability (continued) Age at Disability (50-54) 6 Month Elimination Period Age at Disability (55-59) 6 Month Elimination Period 100% 100% Likelihood 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 20% 28% 52% 34% 53% 29% 16% 55% Likelihood 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 20% 44% 38% 49% 38% 45% 7% 48% 10% 0% 20% 13% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 10% 0% 18% 13% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table Age at Disability (60-64) 6 Month Elimination Period 100% 90% 80% Likelihood 70% 60% 50% 40% 73% 75% 75% 20% 10% 0% 17% 17% 10% 8% 3% 22% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table Measured from beginning of elimination period, all ages combined All Ages 4 Month Elimination Period All Ages 6 Month Elimination Period 100% 100% 90% 80% 21% 25% 25% 90% 80% 27% 28% 70% 70% Likelihood 60% 50% 40% 65% 66% Likelihood 60% 50% 40% 58% 60% 28% 20% 45% 20% 44% 10% 0% 14% 9% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 10% 0% 15% 10% CIA - male CIA - female Krieger Basic Table 19

20 APPENDIX E COMPARISION OF LIABILITES Comparison of Initial Liability by elimination period 500 Initial Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount 3 Month Elimination Period Male (ungraduated) Female (ungraduated) 500 Initial Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount 4 Month Elimination Period Liability (per $1000 face amount) Krieger Basic Table Male (graduated) Female (graduated) Liability (per $1000 face amount) under Age at Disablement 0 under Age at Disablement 500 Initial Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount 6 Month Elimination Period 500 Initial Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount 12 Month Elimination Period Liability (per $1000 face amount) Liability (per $1000 face amount) under Age at Disablement 0 under Age at Disablement 20

21 Comparison of Liability after 24, 36, 60 and 120 months since disability 500 Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount After 24 Months of Disability All Elimination Periods 500 Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount After 36 Months of Disability All Elimination Periods Liability (per $1000 face amount) Liability (per $1000 face amount) under Age at Disablement 0 under Age at Disablement 500 Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount After 60 Months of Disability All Elimination Periods 500 Liability per $1000 of Insured Amount After 120 Months of Disability All Elimination Periods Liability (per $1000 face amount) Liability (per $1000 face amount) under Age at Disablement 0 under Age at Disablement 21

22 APPENDIX F LIABILITIES AT VARIOUS AGES AND DURATIONS All liabilities calculations based on: Life coverage to age 65 6 month elimination period any occupation definition after 24 months following the elimination period (30 months since disability) 6% interest discount. Age at disability Under and over Krieger Valuation at 6 months* at 12 months at 24 months at 36 months at 60 months at 120 months Krieger Basic at 6 months* at 12 months at 24 months at 36 months at 60 months at 120 months * - assumes 3 rd quarter mortality and recovery rates the same as 4 th quarter rates CIA Male (ungraduated) at 6 months at 12 months at 24 months at 36 months at 60 months at 120 months CIA Male (graduated) at 6 months at 12 months at 24 months at 36 months at 60 months at 120 months CIA Female (ungraduated) at 6 months at 12 months at 24 months at 36 months at 60 months at 120 months CIA Female (graduated) at 6 months at 12 months at 24 months at 36 months at 60 months at 120 months

23 Male Exposure Data APPENDIX G ALL ELIMINATION PERIODS COMBINED Age at disability Under and over 4 th month ,058 1,197 1,343 1,552 1,642 1,306 5 th month 821 1,983 2,909 3,298 3,537 3,804 4,359 5,032 4,355 6 th month 711 1,777 2,686 3,099 3,338 3,663 4,248 4,999 4,338 7 th month 924 2,523 3,865 4,600 5,074 5,962 6,987 8,496 7,414 8 th month 850 2,324 3,693 4,395 4,934 5,818 6,892 8,599 7,448 9 th month 757 2,125 3,393 4,049 4,632 5,476 6,627 8,368 7, th month 694 1,999 3,168 3,850 4,414 5,251 6,445 8,308 7, th month 641 1,865 2,964 3,629 4,178 5,047 6,266 8,150 7, th month 610 1,768 2,772 3,432 3,995 4,830 6,061 8,017 6, th month 618 1,845 2,990 3,714 4,378 5,368 6,765 8,992 7, th month 576 1,747 2,826 3,508 4,175 5,193 6,590 8,806 7, th month 541 1,654 2,683 3,356 3,981 4,996 6,431 8,650 7, th month 515 1,581 2,572 3,200 3,827 4,831 6,279 8,555 7, th month 494 1,515 2,422 3,053 3,708 4,680 6,154 8,407 6, th month 478 1,439 2,323 2,921 3,581 4,570 6,005 8,283 6, th month 448 1,356 2,233 2,809 3,473 4,424 5,888 8,150 6, th month 427 1,301 2,147 2,701 3,367 4,308 5,780 8,040 6, st month 418 1,262 2,069 2,615 3,267 4,211 5,672 7,952 6, nd month 402 1,214 2,001 2,518 3,177 4,111 5,610 7,854 6, rd month 389 1,169 1,932 2,417 3,066 4,007 5,539 7,760 5, th month 376 1,121 1,856 2,347 2,978 3,900 5,454 7,681 5, th month 365 1,052 1,767 2,274 2,925 3,866 5,485 7,809 5, th month 348 1,017 1,700 2,215 2,841 3,771 5,368 7,707 5, th month ,639 2,165 2,762 3,689 5,258 7,612 5, th month ,587 2,085 2,680 3,601 5,185 7,509 5, th month ,452 1,933 2,561 3,444 5,022 7,305 5, th month ,382 1,832 2,476 3,342 4,896 7,173 4, st month ,268 1,730 2,335 3,214 4,722 6,981 4, nd month ,169 1,641 2,220 3,083 4,606 6,822 4, rd month ,126 1,590 2,140 3,014 4,539 6,724 4, th month ,084 1,553 2,098 2,931 4,458 6,635 4, th month ,048 1,511 2,053 2,854 4,387 6,573 4, th month ,007 1,479 2,022 2,806 4,333 6,495 3,962 4 th year ,291 1,733 2,522 4,035 6,088 3,239 5 th year ,043 1,436 2,094 3,521 5,463 1,657 6 th year ,219 1,853 3,132 4, th year ,065 1,641 2,778 3, th year ,433 2,465 2, th year ,224 2,163 1, th year ,088 1, Ultimate Period (disabled over 10 years) Under age , , , and older , ,582 23

24 Female Exposure Data Age at disability Under and over 4 th month ,116 1,348 1,361 1,339 1, th month 667 2,178 3,155 3,640 3,757 3,635 3,085 2,605 1,700 6 th month 624 2,039 3,027 3,561 3,750 3,603 3,183 2,684 1,760 7 th month 778 2,685 4,189 4,886 5,226 5,144 4,619 4,003 2,566 8 th month 725 2,478 4,035 4,796 5,190 5,193 4,714 4,205 2,715 9 th month 629 2,226 3,675 4,441 4,860 4,952 4,522 4,064 2, th month 571 2,047 3,416 4,157 4,612 4,738 4,359 3,942 2, th month 523 1,918 3,207 3,913 4,361 4,495 4,201 3,875 2, th month 491 1,817 3,034 3,694 4,116 4,295 4,045 3,764 2, th month 476 1,772 3,028 3,702 4,145 4,276 4,098 3,792 2, th month 443 1,682 2,857 3,529 3,965 4,098 3,971 3,722 2, th month 415 1,600 2,712 3,344 3,776 3,941 3,842 3,667 2, th month 393 1,523 2,596 3,189 3,632 3,779 3,705 3,609 2, th month 384 1,451 2,482 3,047 3,493 3,632 3,593 3,523 2, th month 369 1,388 2,373 2,915 3,378 3,538 3,496 3,426 2, th month 352 1,332 2,284 2,786 3,243 3,411 3,421 3,336 2, th month 337 1,295 2,195 2,683 3,138 3,282 3,317 3,272 2, st month 332 1,250 2,115 2,578 3,037 3,185 3,240 3,199 1, nd month 320 1,222 2,038 2,499 2,936 3,085 3,162 3,152 1, rd month 309 1,191 1,959 2,406 2,836 3,006 3,088 3,117 1, th month 295 1,155 1,889 2,317 2,731 2,924 3,034 3,074 1, th month 289 1,106 1,830 2,313 2,757 2,976 3,151 3,272 1, th month 282 1,057 1,749 2,233 2,670 2,906 3,088 3,228 1, th month 271 1,027 1,693 2,151 2,586 2,820 3,034 3,195 1, th month ,631 2,076 2,499 2,707 2,938 3,131 1, th month ,522 1,888 2,325 2,556 2,785 3,011 1, th month ,444 1,803 2,227 2,460 2,703 2,953 1, st month ,330 1,668 2,066 2,351 2,568 2,842 1, nd month ,237 1,560 1,948 2,237 2,471 2,778 1, rd month ,198 1,499 1,883 2,168 2,412 2,733 1, th month ,162 1,448 1,820 2,114 2,381 2,687 1, th month ,122 1,405 1,764 2,052 2,347 2,647 1, th month ,086 1,362 1,732 2,012 2,306 2,617 1,251 4 th year ,170 1,488 1,719 2,078 2, th year ,144 1,338 1,721 2, th year ,122 1,500 1, th year ,322 1, th year , th year th year Ultimate Period (disabled over 10 years) Under age , , and , ,562 older 24

25 Male Termination Data (recovery and death combined) Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year Ultimate Period (disabled over 10 years) Under age and older

26 Female Termination Data (recovery and death combined) Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year Ultimate Period (disabled over 10 years) Under age and older

27 Male Deaths Data Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year Ultimate Period (disabled over 10 years) Under age and older

28 Female Deaths Data Age at disability Under and over 4 th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th month th month th month th month st month nd month rd month th month th month th month th year th year th year th year th year th year th year Ultimate Period (disabled over 10 years) Under age and 0 older

29 APPENDIX H COMPARISONS WITH KRIEGER BASIC RATES Recovery Rates (Ratio of observed CIA study rates to Krieger Basic rates) Age at disability Under and over Both sexes combined mths % 246% 281% 316% 342% 468% 565% 772% 783% year 2 160% 161% 186% 203% 231% 290% 355% 476% 401% year 3 202% 232% 253% 253% 284% 366% 491% 680% 631% years % 148% 152% 140% 157% 180% 222% 385% 754% Male only mths % 249% 297% 324% 351% 453% 564% 767% 733% year 2 167% 174% 201% 204% 242% 294% 346% 455% 402% year 3 212% 227% 266% 232% 259% 335% 442% 618% 587% years % 168% 159% 140% 145% 170% 215% 377% 768% Female only mths % 242% 266% 310% 334% 483% 567% 783% 924% year 2 151% 148% 171% 203% 220% 286% 371% 526% 395% year 3 189% 238% 241% 274% 311% 408% 579% 8 767% years % 131% 145% 140% 173% 196% 238% 407% 707% All ages at disability combined duration since disability both sexes male only female only duration since disability both sexes male only female only month % 421% 378% month % 380% 333% month % 365% 346% month % 369% 301% month % 265% 239% month % 326% 270% month % 239% 204% month % 275% 236% month % 257% 282% month % 263% 238% month % 550% 631% month % 236% 229% month % 370% 363% month % 241% 211% month % 560% 655% month % 218% 202% month % 458% 495% month % 191% 190% month % 268% 262% month % 191% 167% month % 229% 226% month % 192% 190% month % 203% 215% month % 174% 170% month % 165% 175% month % 326% 249% month % 259% 212% year 4 176% 182% 169% year 8 103% 108% 96% year 5 139% 152% 122% year 9 103% 112% 87% year 6 132% 134% 129% year % 148% 104% year 7 125% 135% 110% over 10 yrs 136% 160% 100% 29

30 Mortality Rates (Ratio of observed CIA study rates to Krieger Basic rates) Age at disability Under and over Both sexes combined mths % 18% 11% 15% 21% 26% 37% 45% year 2 13% 33% 31% 33% 33% 37% 32% 38% 44% year 3 44% 54% 42% 39% 32% 32% 32% 39% 33% years % 54% 43% 44% 37% 49% 47% 51% 81% Male only mths % 27% 17% 21% 24% 29% 36% 38% 48% year 2 12% 42% 42% 45% 41% 40% 36% 40% 47% year 3 80% 70% 63% 55% 39% 38% 36% 43% 38% years % 71% 61% 57% 45% 55% 54% 58% 87% Female only mths % 9% 7% 9% 18% 22% 22% 34% 37% year 2 15% 23% 21% 20% 25% 32% 26% 35% 32% year 3 0% 38% 22% 23% 25% 25% 25% 28% 19% years % 40% 26% 26% 25% 38% 32% 31% 60% All ages at disability combined duration since disability both sexes male only female only month 10 28% 35% 18% month 11 27% 32% 20% month 12 25% 29% 21% duration since disability both sexes male only female only month 13 36% 44% 24% month 25 45% 51% 37% month 14 33% 25% month 26 36% 43% 24% month 15 31% 38% 21% month 27 36% 42% 26% month 16 37% 42% 28% month 28 36% 42% 27% month 17 34% 38% 28% month 29 36% 41% 27% month 18 34% 39% 26% month 30 36% 45% 19% month 19 42% 47% 33% month 31 40% 46% 29% month 20 38% 40% 35% month 32 31% 39% 18% month 21 40% 44% 34% month 33 37% 42% 27% month 22 40% 48% 28% month 34 29% 32% 24% month 23 41% 50% 26% month 35 32% 39% 19% month 24 37% 38% 35% month 36 28% 33% 19% year 4 38% 43% 27% year 8 37% 44% 22% year 5 34% 40% 21% year 9 40% 47% 26% year 6 35% 42% 21% year 10 43% 52% 26% year 7 36% 40% 26% over 10 yrs 23% 27% 14% 30