Canadian Standard Ordinary Life Experience 2001 and 2002

Transcription

1 Mortality Study Canadian Standard Ordinary Life Experience 2001 and 2002 Subcommittee on Individual Life of the Committee on Expected Experience October 2005 Document Ce document est disponible en français 2005 Canadian Institute of Actuaries

2 MORTALITY UNDER CANADIAN STANDARD ORDINARY INSURANCE ISSUES STUDIED BETWEEN THE 2001 AND 2002 ANNIVERSARIES This is the fifty-third annual report submitted by the Subcommittee on Individual Life of the Committee on Expected Experience on the intercompany mortality experience for Canadian standard ordinary life insurance policies. This is the ninth year that we have collected data in a seriatim format. The exposure has been calculated by the Actuarial exposure method, where a full year of exposure is credited in the year of death. The CIA mortality tables are used to calculate the expected death claims separately for males and females, and for smoker, non-smoker distinctions. For data submitted without classification by sex, the male table was used. For data with attained age less than 16, the mortality rates were assigned from the aggregate expected table. An error was brought to light and corrected by a contributor to this annual study. The error affected all the data they have submitted in the past, and so has only been restated for the first time this year. We have provided some 2001/2002 experience information on both the previous and the restated basis, in order to allow the user of these tables to factor out the effect of the error when examining trends. The error is limited to the unknown underwriting block of business, and involved the inclusion of term conversions, elected Guaranteed Insurability Options, and other blocks where underwriting was not performed at issue. Unless otherwise noted, the numbers in the tables below are on the restated basis. The following tables comprise the results of the mortality study and are based on an agenearest birthday basis: Table 1 - Table 2 - Table 3 - The total experience analyzed for the select period by groups of duration and by groups of ages at issue; for the ultimate period by groups of attained ages. Table 1 classified by sex. Select period of Table 2 classified by: (a) - Medical Males/Females (b) - Non-Medical Males/Females (c) - Paramedical Males/Females (d) - Unknown Evidence Males/Females Table 4 - Mortality ratios for policy years through. Table 4A - Mortality ratios for policy years through, by smoker classification, subdivided by known/unknown underwriting. Table 5 - Table 6 - Table 7 - Table 8 - The variation of the experience of the individual companies from the over-all mortality ratio for the total intercompany experience. Various classes in broad groups of policy years and ages at issue or attained ages. Cause of death classified by sex Smoking habits classified by sex. 2

3 Table 9 - Type of insurance. Tables 1, 2, 4 and 8 are also shown based on 5 years aggregate data ( ). We have also included Tables 1 and 2 broken down by the following face amount bands: <$100,000 $100, ,000 $250,000 and over Additional detailed data (Tables A & B), showing mortality ratios by quinquennial age groupings, are available on the CIA website. The study is based on the data of 11 contributing companies. Contributors Exposures Canada Life 9.44% (incl. Crown Life, New York Life & CNA) Desjardins Financial Security 4.67% (incl. Imperial Life & Laurentian Life, excl. Laurier) Great-West Life * 16.41% (incl. London Life, excl. Prudential of America) Industrial Alliance * 7.41% Industrial Alliance Pacific * (formerly North-West) 2.09% (incl. Seaboard Life) Manulife Financial * 5.30% (incl. NALACO, excl. Commercial Union)) Maritime Life * 11.10% (incl Aetna Life, Financial Life & Confederation Life) Clarica Life * 18.90% (incl. Prudential Insurance (UK) & Metropolitan Life) National Life * 1.91% Sun Life * 7.49% Transamerica Life * (incl. NN Financial) 15.28% Total Exposures % Nine companies contributed data to the cause of death study (table 7); these are indicated by the * above. Comments The column entitled S.D. provides estimates of the standard deviation of the ratios of actual to expected numbers of deaths. These numbers measure the degree of confidence which may be placed in the ratios experienced. The formula used to calculate the standard deviations is as follows: ( actual number of deaths) S.D. = exp ected number of 1 2 deaths 3

4 Table 1: A comparison of total exposures and death claims with previous years is as follows: Exposures By Number 8,133,615 7,926,542 7,939,327 7,752,412 By Amount ( 000) 564,751, ,166, ,613, ,305,652 Death Claims By Number 50,248 50,569 50,959 49,238 By Amount ( 000) 1,017,651 1,069,789 1,158,420 1,117,241 Average Claim By Amount 19,258 20,253 21,155 22,732 22,691 Table 2: The average sum assured for the exposures has been steadily increasing as follows: Average Sum Assured Males 76,913 78,649 82,483 89,168 89,189 Females 55,402 57,235 59,731 64,363 64,695 Combined 67,475 69,434 72,688 78,421 78,596 Table 4: MORTALITY RATIOS FOR POLICY YEARS THROUGH A/E % by Amount Study Years Original Male & Female Male Female Restated 4

5 Table 4A: COMPARISON OF A/E RATIOS BY AMOUNT SELECT DATA ONLY Original Restated Known Underwriting Male, Smoker Male, Non-Smoker Male, Unclassified Female, Smoker Female, Non-Smoker Female, Unclassified Unknown Underwriting Male, Smoker Male, Non-Smoker Male, Unclassified Female, Smoker Female, Non-Smoker Female, Unclassified Table 7: Percentage of death claims by amount for the main cause of death groupings: Policy Years Study Year and over Accidents and Homicides 13.4% 17.9% 17.7% 5.3% 6.2% 6.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% Heart and Circulatory 12.2% 12.9% 16.3% 12.8% 16.3% 17.7% 21.4% 23.5% 24.4% Malignant Neoplasms 30.3% 30.9% 30.6% 33.3% 40.4% 38.1% 27.6% 29.8% 30.6% Respiratory 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% 3.0% 3.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.5% Suicide 4.6% 5.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 4.9% 1.9% 1.1% 1.8% AIDS 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 5

6 Some companies have sent increasing portions of their data with no cause of death information, where the data cannot be excluded from this report at the present time. This is causing a trend towards decreasing proportions in the study. We are looking at ways of correcting this in the future. Table 8: The following SELECT ratios for smokers and non-smokers where the Underwriting Classification is known were extracted from the study (with the comparable ratios from the previous year shown in brackets). The expected table is select, smoker, and non-smoker distinct. A/E % (by amount) Expected Death Claims( 000) Male smokers 78.0 (74.7) 100,002 (96,857) Male non-smokers 67.3 (70.3) 358,299 (335,668) Male unclassified 62.6 (104.3) 16,426 (16,977) Female smokers 80.4 (95.8) 33,699 (32,015) Female non-smokers 65.7 (76.2) 118,704 (107,057) Female unclassified 69.5 (70.7) 7,319 (7,261) The following table shows the claims in excess of $1,000,000 that are included in the 5 years of data in this report Select Male Smokers Male Nonsmokers Male Unclassified Female Smokers Female Non- Smokers Female Unclassified Ultimate All* TOTAL * All ultimate claims are Male (Nonsmoker or Unclassified). 6

7 SMOKER/NONSMOKER EXPERIENCE (86-92 EXPECTED) A/E % by Amount Original Study Years Restated Male Smoker Male Non-Smoker Female Smoker Female Non-Smoker This report was prepared by the Institute of Insurance and Pension Research, University of Waterloo R.L. Brown (Director) V. Borchert The report was approved by the Individual Life Subcommittee of the Committee on Expected Experience Mary Simanikas (Committee Chairperson) Scott McGaire (Subcommittee Chairperson) Stephen Beal Marc-André Belzil William Brath Emile Elefteriadis Beth Fitzmaurice Roger Lumsden Lloyd Milani Marc Tardif July