The 1995 labor force : BLS' latest projections

Transcription

1 The 1995 labor force : BLS' laes projecions A hird look shows ha he 1995 labor force will have abou 129 million persons, 2 million fewer han projeced earlier; he proporion of blacks will increase, bu women are sill expeced o have he fases growh HOWARD N FULLERTON, JR The labor force is projeced o reach 129 million persons in 1995, up from 114 million in 1984, according o new Bureau of Labor Saisics projecions The new middle growh projecions show he labor force growing a a slower rae over he period han over he period, wih he slowes growh occurring during he early 1990's Blacks are expeced o accoun for a larger share (20 percen) of he fuure labor force growh, he consequence of higher birh raes during he pas several decades Women also are expeced o accoun for a larger share of growh (60 percen), he consequence of coninued increased paricipaion raes Because of he aging of he baby-boom generaion and he projeced coninued declines in paricipaion among older persons, nearly hree-fourhs of he 1995 labor force is projeced o be in he prime working ages (25 o 54 years), compared wih wo-hirds of he 1984 labor force The prime working age componen of he labor force is projeced o increase by 21 million, while he overall labor force is projeced o increase by only 15 million inasmuch as he numbers of hose in boh he older and younger labor force are projeced o drop Paricipaion among women ages 25 o 44 is expeced o exceed 80 percen in 1995, up from 70 percen in 1984 and 50 percen in 1970 The coninuing increases reflec changes Howard N Fulleron, Jr is a demographic saisician in he Office of Economic Growh and Employmen Projecions, Bureau of Labor Saisics in marial saus, educaional aainmen, feriliy, and rising career aspiraions Paricipaion among persons ages 55 and over is expeced o be only 25 percen in 1995, down from 30 percen in 1984 and 39 percen in 1970 These persisen declines reflec increasing percenages of workers who are eligible for pensions and who selec early reiremen This aricle presens BLS' hird look a he 1995 labor force Each look has resuled in lower 1995 labor force paricipaion The revisions reflec he more modes increases in female paricipaion over he las several years, compared wih he subsanial increases during he 1970's The change in hisorical rends occurred mosly among 20- o 34-year-old women and reflecs he movemen of he baby-boom generaion hrough hese ages The projecions are presened by age, sex, and race for 1990 and 1995 They are based on he Bureau of Census middle populaion projecion as well as BLs assumpions concerning fuure rends in labor force paricipaion ' The projecion for each componen of he middle growh scenario is based on pas rends of labor force aciviy exended forward o 1995 These exrapolaed rends, modified when necessary, are hen applied o Census Bureau populaion levels for differen groups ' (The mehods for projecing he labor force and oher componens of BLS' economic growh model are described on pages 58-59) Also discussed briefly are wo scenarios (low and high growh) which illusrae he sensiiviy of labor force rends o demographic assumpions such as male and female and black and whie 17

2 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1985 " Laes Projecions of 1995 Labor Force labor force paricipaion raes converging over ime These alernaive scenarios provide some insighs ino he range of uncerainy concerning he fuure size of he U S labor force Finally, his aricle compares curren projecions wih projecions of he 1995 labor force published by BIS in 1980 and 1983 Middle growh scenario The labor force is projeced o coninue he slowdown in growh ha began in he lae 1970's The larges growh, 3 3 percen or 3 2 million addiional persons, occurred over he period Over he period, he labor force grew by only 1 7 million persons per year Over he period he average increase is expeced o be only 1 4 million persons per year-1 5 million during he period and 1 3 million during The change in labor force growh beween he lae 1970's and early 1980's refleced sharply lower populaion and paricipaion growh raes during he early 1980's The labor force rends over he las and nex decade are dominaed by he movemen of he baby-boom generaion from he ages of labor force enry ino he prime working ages The paricipaion rends are affeced by he aging of he baby-boom generaion and by an increasing propensiy of older workers o reire early Labor force rends are projeced o coninue o vary by age, sex, and race (See able 1 ) During he las 15 years, he prime age female labor force has consisenly been he fases growing group While he growh for his group is expeced o slow, i would sill be one of he fases growing elemens in his laes projecion The rends refleced large increases in boh populaion and paricipaion ; he rends reflec modes increases In absolue numbers, he and projeced increases in he prime age female labor force are nearly equal The youh labor force (ages 16 o 24) also grew rapidly during he 1970's ; during he lae 1980's and early 1990's, i is projeced o decline in absolue numbers This change reflecs he movemen of he baby-boom generaion ino and hrough his age group The projeced populaion declines will more han offse projeced modes increases in paricipaion for his age group The older labor force (hose 55 years and over) expanded during he 1970's, began o conrac in he 1980's, and is expeced o coninue declining The decline reflecs a slowing of he growh of he older populaion ha began abou 1980 In he 1970's, populaion growh more han offse paricipaion decreases for his group ; in he 1980's and 1990's, his is no expeced o hold The prime age male labor force has grown seadily ; i is Table 1 Civilian labor force, by sex, age, and race, acual and middle growh projecions o 1995 Group Acual Projeced Toal, 16 years and over (housands) 93, , , , ,168 Men 56,299 61,453 63,835 67,146 69, o 24 12,371 13,606 12,727 11,163 10, o 54 34,991 38,712 42,302 48,079 51, and over 8,938 9,135 8,805 7,904 7,542 Women 37,475 45,487 49,704 55,507 59, o 24 10,250 11,696 11,260 10,089 9, o 54 21,860 27,888 32,360 39,632 44, and over 5,365 5,904 6,084 5,786 5,744 Whie 82,831 93,600 98, , ,086 Black 9,263 10,865 12,033 13,602 14,796 Toal, 16 years and over (percen) Men o o and over Women o o and over Whie Black Average annual rae of change Toal, 16 years and over Men o o and over Women o o and over Whie Black None : Dash indicaes daa no available 18

3 Table 2 Civilian noninsiuional populaion, by sex, age, and race, acual and projeced o 1995 [Numbers in housands] G roup Acual Projeced Toal, 16 years and over 153, , , , ,817 Men 72,291 79,398 83,605 88,568 92, o 24 17,084 18,282 17,494 15,162 14, o 54 37,071 41,095 45,039 51,407 55, and over 18,138 20,021 21,073 21,999 22,757 Women 80,860 88,348 92,778 98, , o 24 17,929 18,895 27,829 15,653 14, o 54 39,700 43,603 47,436 53,544 56, and over 23,231 25,850 27,413 28,890 30,012 Whie 134, , , , ,860 Black 15,751 17,824 19,348 21,204 22,658 Average annual rae of change Toal, 16 years and over Men o o and over Women o o and over Whie Black NOTE : Dash indicaes daa no available SOURCE: Daa are based on Census Bureau "middle" projecions of he populaion expeced o coninue doing so Like he prime age female labor force, he increases for men over he nex decade are projeced o be he same size as he las decade's Prime working age women are expeced o accoun for more han one-hird of he labor force in 1995 Because of he differing rends in paricipaion by age, he prime age labor force share of he oal labor force has been seadily increasing since 1975 and is expeced o reach nearly 75 percen in 1995 The black labor force has grown faser han he whie labor force for he las wo decades; his is expeced o coninue Even so, blacks would sill accoun for a modes share (abou 12 percen) of he 1995 labor force The black share of he addiions o he labor force over he period pains a more dramaic picure ; hey are projeced o accoun for almos 20 percen of he addiions o he labor force The projeced growh in he labor force reflecs wo imporan underlying facors-populaion and labor force paricipaion An examinaion of hese facors reveals heir conribuion o fuure labor force growh Populaion projecions Pas and fuure rends in he labor force are deermined by he composiion of populaion and by he proporion of he populaion working or seeking work (paricipaion or aciviy raes) wihin each of he age, sex, and race groups The labor force changes as he composiion of he populaion changes because each group differs as o levels and rends of paricipaion The populaion projecions reflec rends in birhs, mor- aliy, and ne migraion Of he hree, birhs have he greaes and mos direc impac on he labor force, life expecancy he leas Pas rends in birhs have a direc impac on he 1995 labor force ; fuure birhs are imporan only as hey affec women's and men's labor force paricipaion Birhs have flucuaed in long cycles over he pas cenury, reflecing differen combinaions of feriliy raes and numbers of women in heir childbearing years There was a sharp increase in birhs wih he end of World War 11, bu he highes level occurred in he 1950's From 1954 hrough 1964, annual birhs exceeded 4 million Beween he lae 1950's and he mid-1970's, birhs dropped, numbering only 32 million in 1975 Since hen, birhs have been rising and are expeced o peak in 1988 a 3 9 million Afer ha, he number of birhs is projeced o drop, as he baby-boom generaion moves pas is peak childbearing years, even as he oal feriliy rae is assumed o coninue increasing slighly Following is he oal feriliy rae (birhs per woman), :5 Acual Projeced Whie Black Because of he swings in birhs during he period, he 25- o 54-year-old populaion group will be he fases growing componen during he nex decade ; he 16- o 24- year-old populaion will decline (See able 2 ) Those born in 1957, he peak year for birhs, will be 38 years in 1995 ; hose born in 1973, he rough year for birhs, will be 22 years 19

4 MONT HLY LABOR REVIEW November 1985 e Laes Projecions o/'1995 Labor Force Black birh raes are higher han hose of whies Thus, he black populaion is growing faser and has a younger median age han he whie populaion The younger populaion of blacks would have proporionaely more labor force enran ; Life expecancy changes affec mainly he number and sex composiion of he older populaion This, however, has only a modes effec on he labor force projecions, given ha older persons have relaively low levels of labor force paricipaion Following is he life expecancy a birh (in years) for men and women, :5 Men Women Acual Projeced / Migraion will have an increasingly imporan impac on labor force growh during he nex decade The Census Bureau assumed ha he yearly level of ne migraion during he nex decade would be abou he same as i has been recenly Following is he ne migraion (in housands), :5 Char 1 Labor force paricipaion raes of men and women aged 16 and over, Percen 100 f" i0 %% 40 IE Men Women Acual Projeced 1955 / Toal migraion However, ne migraion will accoun for abou 25 percen of he addiions o he oal populaion, compared wih abou 20 percen during he 1970's and 13 percen during he 1960'x According o Vernon M Briggs, Jr "In he 1970's and early 1980'x, he Unied Saes legally admied wice as many immigrans in absolue numbers as did all of he remaining naions of he world combined "c" Furher, since World War II, more immigrans have women and mos are in he prime working ages Labor force paricipaion The second elemen in labor force projecions is BLS' projecions of labor force paricipaion raes Trends in paricipaion are projeced for 82 age, sex, and race or ehnic groups These projecions involve wo seps Firs, pas rends in paricipaion are exrapolaed o 1995 Second, hese exrapolaed rends arc modified when cross-secional and cohor analysis show an inconsisency wih he imeseries analysis The second sep has a major impac on mos projeced rends Paerns of paricipaion differ by age and sex (See char I ) Male raes are higher han women's a all ages Paricipaion increases rapidly during he eens and early wenies Paricipaion for women peaks in heir lae wenies : men, in heir early hiries for While he gap beween male and female paricipaion has been diminishing, i is projeced o coninue a leas hrough 1995 The pas declines in male paricipaion are expeced o coninue hrough 1995 : pas Percen r (, L 20 Age Men Women 40 Age " 80 M 80 20

5 Table 3 Civilian labor force paricipaion, by sex, age, and race, acual and middle growh projecion o 1995 G roup Acual Projeced Toal,16 years and over Men o o and over Women o and over o Whie Black Average annual rae of change Toal, 16 years Men o o and over Women o o and over Whie Black NOTE: Dash indicaes daa no available, increases in female paricipaion are expeced o coninue, albei a slower raes (See able 3 ) Whie women Paricipaion of whie women ages 20 o 29 increased rapidly during he early 1970's, bu moderaely during he lae 1970's and early 1980's (See able 4) Moderae increases are projeced o coninue hrough 1995, as career aspiraions and oher facors, such as he use of child care faciliies, coninue o influence paricipaion decisions of women The change from rapid o moderae paricipaion reflecs, in par, he passage of he baby-boom generaion hrough heir wenies Those born in he lae 1940's and early 1950's (he iniial phase of he baby-boom generaion) experienced a "marriage squeeze," a shorage of men 2 o 3 years older han hemselves Along wih oher facors, his squeeze increased he average age of women a marriage ' Because paricipaion is much higher for single han for married women, he overall paricipaion of women increased (The squeeze had lile effec on male raes because heir paricipaion varies lile by marial saus ) The marriage squeeze during he 1960's and early 1970's paralleled (and were a likely facor in) he declining feriliy raes and increasing educaional aainmen among 20- o 29-year-old women Since he mid-1970's, he marriage squeeze has lessened and should remain sable for a leas he nex decade The populaion projecions assume ha feriliy raes will increase slighly over he nex decade Paricipaion among whie women ages 30 o 45 is expeced o coninue increasing rapidly during he nex decade These women, and heir spouses, will have reached a poin in heir working lives when earnings no longer increase rapidly ' Thus, o mainain heir living sandard, hey will have o increase heir ime in he labor force Some economiss argue ha because of he size of he baby-boom generaion, is lifeime earnings will be depressed If rue, his would furher encourage hese women o conribue o family income hrough increased labor force aciviy" Daa for he labor force paricipaion raes of whie women look very differen, depending on wheher one analyzes cohors (generaions) or cross-secional paerns (he rae in a given calendar year for all labor force groups by age) For he enire pos-world War II period, successive generaions of whie women have had greaer labor force paricipaion a he age of labor force enry Furhermore, J Gregory Robinson and Claudia Goldin repor ha raes for cohors rise along wih age unil he paricipans reach heir fifies " A char of he paricipaion rae of several cohors herefore would show an upward curve which levels off in he fifies and hen declines ; each successive cohor would have a higher curve (excep for he and birh cohors) Chars of he cross-secional paern, however, do no show his consan rise Insead, hey show a relaive decline, or "valley," because paricipaion raes appear o rise sharply hrough ages 25 o 29, hen drop for ages 30 o 39, hen rise again The "valley" in he crosssecional char appears because he paricipaion rae of women age 35 in 1975 was lower han he rae of women age 25 in ha year Noe, however, ha while he rae for women age 35 in 1975 is lower han he rae for 25-year-olds in 1975, i is no lower han he 1974 rae for he 25 year-old women who were born in 1949 (See char 1 ) I migh also be noed ha alhough his "valley" may be of ineres, i has been disappearing in he cross-secional daa and his projecion has i disappearing compleely Again, his reflecs he ineracion of wo changes, lower growh in paricipaion a he age of enry ino he labor force and higher growh in paricipaion in he prime working ages Black versus whie women In he 1960's and early 1970's, he paricipaion of prime working age black women exceeded ha of whie women by as much as 15 percenage poins for a few age groups By 1984, whie raes equaled or exceeded hose of blacks in mos age groups To make his projecion, i was necessary o consider wheher paricipaion of whie women was likely o equal or exceed ha of black women in he prime working age groups Paricipaion raes for black women have been projeced o remain above hose of whies a ages 30 o 64, bu below hose for whies a ages 25 o 29 A furher assumpion in he projecions is ha changes in family saus would no resul in labor force for black women being below hose of whie women The labor force paricipaion raes of a few age groups of women are projeced o increase by more han 1 percen 21

6 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1985 a Laes Projecions of 1995 Labor Force a year The following abulaion shows he eigh groups wih he fases paricipaion growh projeced for : Projeced decline Race Age group per year Black men 65 and older -5 4 Whie men 65 and over -3 5 Black women 65 and over -2 9 Whie women 65 and over -2 6 Black men Whie men Black men Black men As noed earlier, he aciviy raes of men are expeced o coninue heir slow descen The raes of black men have been (and are projeced o coninue) declining mos rapidly Those of whie men are expeced o drop a a moderae pace Teenagers Paricipaion among mos eenage groups declined over he pas decade, bu are expeced o increase over he nex decade Teenage paricipaion has been more cyclically responsive han oher age groups Teens have also faced considerable compeiion for jobs in he recen pas ; now ha heir numbers are falling, here should be relaively less compeiion However, a greaer proporion of he youh populaion is projeced o be minoriy To he exen ha minoriies live where here are fewer jobs, heir paricipaion or a leas heir chances of employmen could be lower han one would expec, even if openings for youhs exis elsewhere The absolue decline in he numbers of younger workers during he nex decade may imply a labor shorage for some employers Some employers of younger workers, paricularly eenagers, are responding o his shorage eiher by hiring a differen age mix of employees or by offering higher wages o coninue aracing eenage employees Older persons The paricipaion rae of older workers is projeced o drop subsanially hrough 1995 Several facors lead o his projecion For hose 65 and over, raes have dropped for he enire cenury The drop for hose 55 o 64 is a pos-world War 11 phenomenon ; here is no indicaion ha his drop will end soon A recen Naional Bureau of Economic Research sudy concludes ha he larges expeced gain from mos pension plans is obained by reiring as soon as a person is eligible " As more people are covered by pension plans, labor force paricipaion of older workers can be expeced o drop 14 They may sar wihdrawing funds Table Civilian labor force and paricipaion raes by sex, age, and race, acual and middle growh projecion for Group Paricipaion rae Labor force (housands) Acual Projeced Acual Projeced Toal, 16 years and over , , ,168 Men ,299 63,835 69, o ,805 4,134 3, o ,565 8,594 6, o ,192 18,488 18, o ,398 14,037 19, o ,401 9,776 13, o ,023 7,050 6, and over ,914 1,755 1,423 Women ,475 49,704 59, o ,065 3,809 3, o ,185 7,451 6, o ,673 14,234 16, o ,505 10,896 16, o ,683 7,230 11, o ,323 4,911 4, and aver ,173 1,049 Whie ,831 98, ,086 Men ,324 56,062 59, o ,931 10,977 9, o ,225 37,067 44, and over ,167 8,016 6,781 Women ,508 42,431 50, o ,988 9,706 8, o ,732 27,378 37, and over ,788 5,346 4,927 Black ,263 12,033 14,796 Men ,016 6,126 7, o ,237 1,462 1, o ,109 4,041 5, and over Women ,247 5,907 7, o ,078 1,291 1, o ,651 3,994 5, and over

7 from Individual Reiremen Accouns (IRA's) a age 59'/2, which may also conribue o he rend in lower paricipaion Older people dominae he groups wih rapidly declining labor force paricipaion Following are he eigh groups wih he mos rapidly declining paricipaion raes projeced for : Projeced decline Race Age group per year Black men 65 and older -5 4 Whie men 65 and over -3 5 Black women 65 and over -2 9 Whie women 65 and over -2 6 Black men By 1995, more of he oal US populaion, including children, is projeced o be in he labor force han no in he labor force, as he economic dependency raio shows (The economic dependency raio is defined as he number of persons no in he labor force, including hose under age 16, per hundred persons in he labor force ) The numeraor of he economic dependency raio can be decomposed by age : hose under 16, hose 16 o 64, and hose 65 and over The following abulaion shows he economic dependency raio, : Toal Whie men Under 16 years Black men years Black men years and over Implicaions of underlying assumpions Prime working age workers (hose 25 o 54) are projeced o accoun for 74 percen of he 1995 labor force, compared wih 66 percen in 1984 and 61 percen in 1970 Women would make up nearly 60 percen of he increase Because of he drop in he numbers of younger and older workers, prime working age men would also be an increasing proporion of he labor force in he 1990's This developmen should have a posiive effec on labor produciviy The increase in relaive size of he prime age male labor force comes abou because of he more rapid drop in paricipaion or populaion of oher age groups, no because of a rise in prime age male paricipaion The rise in women's share resuls from he drop in younger and older workers, as well as from a rise in paricipaion of women To pursue he age srucure of he labor force furher, he median age of he labor force peaked around 1960, affeced by he rapid enry of he baby-boom generaion ino he labor force in he 1970's By 1975, i had dropped sharply ; he drop over he nex 9 years has been more modes Under he assumpions of he middle growh projecion, he median age of he labor force would increase from 1984 hrough 1995 The 1995 labor force would be older han he 1975 labor force (have a greaer median age) For he populaion as a whole, women are older han men; however, for he labor force, men have a greaer median age The difference in he median age of women and men in he labor force was 1'/2 years in 1955 This difference narrowed over he 1960's, bu remains and is projeced o coninue The whie labor force was less han a year older han he black labor force in he mid-1970's, a difference ha is projeced o coninue Following is he median age of he labor force by sex and race, : Toal Men Women Whie Black The drop in he economic dependency raio over he period in he age group (from 51 persons per hundred workers o 28 per hundred) reflecs he seady enry of women ino he work force The raio for his age group has dropped by a hird over he las 30 years The raio aribued o youh has also dropped by more han a hird In 1955, he youh raio was high because of he baby-boom birhs ; hen i dropped wih he enry of he baby-boom generaion ino he work force The dependency raio aribued o older people has grown over he period, reflecing boh he aging of he populaion and lower paricipaion of older workers By 1995, his group would accoun for a quarer of he raio, up from a enh in 1955 Alhough older people accoun for he smalles segmen of he "dependen" populaion, heir coss per person are hree imes ha of he oher groups 15 Thus, a cos-weighed dependency raio for older people would rise, and older persons would accoun for a larger porion of he overall raio Women The proporion of he labor force ha is female increased from 40 percen in 1975 and 44 percen in 1984 and is projeced o reach 46 percen by 1995 Alhough women are more han half he populaion 16 and older, hey will no accoun for half of he labor force as long as heir paricipaion raes remain 10 percenage poins lower han men of he same age Women do accoun for slighly more han half of he incremen o he populaion 16 and older ; during he early 1970's, when he baby-boom group was enering he labor force, each sex conribued o he labor force growh in proporion o heir populaion growh During he lae 1970's as he enry of he baby-boom generaion ended, women provided a greaer share of he incremen o he labor force During he early 1980's, heir share of labor force growh was more han 10 percenage poins more han heir addiion o he populaion In he lae 1980's, as heir paricipaion growh slows, he percen of he incremen should fall slighly, and coninue falling in he early 1990's The following 23

8 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW November 1985 a Laes Projecions of 1995 Labor Force abulaion shows he percen of populaion and labor force growh aribued o women, : Labor force Populaion Difference Blacks Blacks should accoun for a growing proporion of boh he populaion and of he labor force beween now and 1995 Their proporion of he populaion is expeced o increase more han heir proporion of he labor force The populaion growh reflecs higher feriliy and, hus a younger populaion This in iself parially explains why he proporion of blacks is higher in he populaion han in he labor force-more blacks han whies are oo young o work In addiion, younger blacks of working age have subsanially lower paricipaion han oher populaion groups The combinaion of hese wo facors explains blacks' modes share of he labor force incremen in he mid-1970's a ime when many youh were enering he labor force While he proporion of growh aribued o women levels ou afer 1990 blacks should accoun for a growing proporion of he labor force afer 1990, indicaing heir grea imporance in labor force developmens as he cenury ends The following abulaion shows he percen of populaion and labor force growh aribued o blacks, : Labor force Populaion Difference I Alernaive scenarios The projecions reflec underlying assumpions; he resuls are significanly alered by changes in hose assumpions Differen assumpions yield a 1995 labor force ranging from million paricipans (low scenario) o 1341 million (high scenario) 16 (See able 5) In he middle scenario, paricipaion raes of women ages 20 o 29 are assumed o coninue heir rends over he period During he lae 1960's and 1970's, he paricipaion for 20- o 29-year-old women seadily acceleraed Growh slowed in he mid-1970's, in par, because of he lessening of he marriage squeeze which also could cause he paricipaion raes for hese women o slow even more over he nex decade If his occurs, he 1995 labor force would be sharply lower han he middle scenario porrays (low scenario) Should he 1970's phenomena of acceleraing growh recur during he nex decade, he 1995 labor force would be sharply higher han he middle scenario (high scenario) The high scenario presens a labor force wih male and female raes nearly converging This migh be aained wih a greaer proporion of families wih wo wage earners and eiher a greaer demand for child care faciliies or he presence of fewer children han are implici in he middle scenario Or i migh be achieved wih a greaer proporion of single heads of household and higher divorce raes, compared wih he middle scenario Eiher way, he high scenario implies subsanially greaer changes in he radiional family Furher, i assumes he aciviy raes of black men will increase, converging wih hose of whies, a sharp change in rends from he pas The low scenario reflecs boh a sharp deceleraion in he rends of he 1970's and a modes deceleraion of he rend This scenario represens a reurn o he growh paern of he 1950's and early 1960's While no a reversal of he growh in women's paricipaion raes and relaed shifs in marial saus, his scenario implies only modes growh A second assumpion for he middle scenario concerns he relaive rends in black-whie paricipaion Over he las wo decades, he raes for black and whie women have been converging (oward he higher black raes), while he raes for black and whie men have been diverging The middle (and low) scenario assumes hese respecive rends will coninue The high scenario assumes ha he raes for black men converges o he higher whie male raes Previous BLS projecions The 1995 labor force projecions described above are lower han hose published in 1983, bu higher han hose published in 1980 (See able 6) The curren projecions are lower han he 1983 projecions because hey reflec he slowdown in he rae of growh Table 5 Three scenarios of he civilian labor force and paricipaion raes, by sex, age, and race, projecions for 1995 Group Paricipaion rae Labor ore (housands) High Middle Low High Middle Low Toal , , ,411 Men ,621 69,282 66, o 24 years ,050 10,540 9, o 54 years ,959 51,200 49, years and over ,612 7,542 6,750 Women ,464 59,886 58, o 24 years ,112 9,623 9, o 54 years ,292 44,519 43, years and over ,060 5,744 5,565 Whie , , ,327 Black ,932 14,796 13,686 24

9 Table 6 Comparison of curren and previous labor force middle growh projecions for 1995 [Numbers in housands] Iem Projecions made in Difference beween 1985 and previous projecions Number Percen Labor force : Toal 129, , ,542-2,219 1, Men 69,282 69,970 67, , Women 59,886 61,417 59,931-1, Paricipaion rae : Toal Men Women : Populaion Toal 193, , , ,783 (1) 4 2 Men 92,065 91,947 88, , Women 101, ,886 98, , 'Beween - 1 and 0 0 in women's paricipaion which sared in 1978 and coninued hrough 1984 Much of he decrease in men's labor force paricipaion occurred among older men whose paricipaion is projeced o coninue o decrease There were modes changes in he projeced size of he populaion, reflecing he revision in moraliy a he older ages How- ever, he revised populaion projecions accouned for less han 1 percen of he overall change One reason he curren and 1980 projecions differ is because of revisions in he populaion projecions, he resul of he inroducion of he populaion conrols from he 1980 Census Also, he difference beween he curren and he 1980 projeced labor force reflecs changes in labor force aciviy How accurae are hese new projecions? This quesion obviously canno be answered unil afer 1995, bu he accuracy of pas BLS projecions has been reviewed Beween 1965 and 1976, BLS published four projecions of he 1980 labor force Each underesimaed he 1980 labor force by 1 7 o 2 9 percen Mos of he discrepancy was aribued o an underesimaion of paricipaion raes of women 17 THE LABOR FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW, according o he middle growh scenario, alhough more slowly han in he recen pas Women's labor force paricipaion would coninue o grow slowly Blacks would be a greaer propoaion of he labor force By 1995, abou hree-quarers of he labor force would be in he 25- o 54-year-old age group, reflecing he aging of he baby-boom generaion and he drop in paricipaion by older workers El FOOTNOTES ' These projecions replace hose described by Howard N Fulleron, Jr and John Tscheer in "The 1995 labor force : a second look," Monhlv Labor Review, November 1983, pp 3-10 ; and Howard N Fulleron, Jr, The 1995 labor force : a firs look," Monhly Labor Review, December 1980, pp =Projecions of he Populaion of he Unied Saes : 1983 o 2080, Curren Populaion Repors, Series P-25, No 952 (Bureau of he Census, 1984) 'For a shor descripion of he Bs demographic labor force projecion mehodology, see Chaper 18 in BLs Handbook of Mehods, Bullein (Bureau of Labor Saisics, 1982) ; for a complee descripion, see Chaper 2 in Bs Economic Growh Model Svsem Used for Projecions o 1990, Bullein 2112 (Bureau of Labor Saisics, 1982) 'The labor force (civilian labor force and residen Armed Forces) is projeced o be 124, in 1990 and 130,965,000 in 1995 Of hese, 55,698,000 in 1990 will be women and 60,462,000 in 1995 will be women Because here is no age or race deail in he residen Armed Forces measure of he labor force, his aricle is based on he civilian labor force s Daa are from he Census Bureau 'Vernon M Briggs, Jr, Immigraion Policv and he American Labor Force (Balimore, MD, The Johns Hopkins Universiy Press, 1984), p 1 'Marion F Housoun, "Aliens in irregular saus in he Unied Saes : a review of heir numbers, characerisics, and role in he US labor marke," Inernaional Migraion, 1983, pp 'Rober Schoen, "Measuring he Tighness of a Marriage Squeeze," Demographv, February 1983, pp According o Schoen, "The marriage squeeze is shown o be capable of producing significan changes in boh he level and disribuion of marriage" (p 61) Also see Kingsley Davis, "Wives and work : Consequences of he sex role revoluion," Populaion and Developmen Review, Sepember 1984, pp ; and Kingsley Davis and Peironella van den Oever, "Demographic foundaions of new sex roles," Populaion and Developmen Review, Sepember 1982, pp ; Willard L Rodgers and Arland Thornon, "Changing Paems of Firs Marriage in he Unied Saes," Demography, May 1-985, pp ; and Thomas J Espenshade, "Marriage rends in America : Esimaes, implicaions, and causes," Populaion and Developmen Review, June 1985, pp ' Valarie Kincade Oppenheimer, "The life-cycle squeeze : The ineracion of men's occupaional and family cycles," Demographv, May 1974, pp ' Valarie Kincade Oppenheimer, "The Easerlin hypohesis : anoher aspec of he echo," Populaion and Developmen Review, Sepember- December 1976, pp "Richard Easerlin, "Relaive economic saus and he American feriliy swing," in Eleanor Sheldon, ed, Family Economic Behavior (Philadelphia, PA, Lippinco, 1973) ; Richard Easerlin, Birh and Forune: The Impac of Numbers on Personal Welfare (New York, Basic Books, 1980) Also, see Finis Welch, "Effecs of Cohor Size on Earnings," Journal of Poliical Economv, Ocober 1979, pp ; and Richard B Freeman, "The Effec of Demographic Facors on Age-Eamings Profiles " The Journal of Human Resources, summer 1979, pp '=See J Gregory Robinson, "Labor Force Paricipaion Raes of Cohors of Women in he Unied Saes : ," presened a he 1980 Annual Meeing of he Populaion Associaion of America ; and Claudia Goldin, "The Changing Economic Role of Women: A Quaniaive Approach," Journal of lnerdisciplinarv Hisory, spring 1983, pp "David A Wise, "Labor Aspecs of Pension Plans," NBER Reporer, Winer , pp "Rober L Clark, "Aging and labor force paricipaion," in Pauline K Robinson, Judy Livingson, and James E Birren, eds, Aging and Technological Advances (New York, Plenum, 1985), pp '5 Rober Clark and Joseph Spengler, "Dependency raios : Their use in economic analysis," in Julian Simon and Julie Devanzo, eds, Research in Populaion Economics, Vol 2 (Greenwich, CT, JAI Press, 1980), pp ' BLS' alernaive scenarios of gross naional produc, indusry oupu, and employmen rends and occupaional requiremens use he macro labor force model's projecions of oal labor force This was done because he macro labor force is par of he macroeconomeric model of he economic projecions "See Howard N Fulleron, Jr, "How accurae were he 1980 labor force projecions," Monhlv Labor Review, July 1982, pp