UK plc: The Growing Debt Challenge TOMORROW S WORLD JAMES BELLINI 10 SEPTEMBER 2015
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2 UK plc: The Growing Debt Challenge TOMORROW S WORLD JAMES BELLINI 10 SEPTEMBER 2015
3 PREDICTIONS CAN BE DANGEROUS There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue Andrew D Mellon 1928
4 TOMORROW S WORLD UK plc: the outlook Tracking our debt culture Horizon 2020s An affluent gerontocracy? The Boomer burden: intergenerational inequity Coming mortgage crunch Futurist checklist
5 GREAT RECESSION: THE WORST OF TIMES
6 UK GDP: OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH
7 UK FORECASTS: TREAT WITH CAUTION
8 HORIZON 2050: UK S RICH FUTURE? UK GDP Growth to 2050 Average per annum: 2.4% Source: PwC The World in 2050
9 UNBALANCED UK [ EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR % ]
10 WHERE S THE WEALTH? UK Net Household Assets 2014 Financial Assets Property 5.5 trillion 3.6 trillion Source: Lloyds Private Banking
11 Global Debt Binge UK Households A NEW DEBT CULTURE?
12 WAR AND THE PUBLIC PURSE
13 GLOBAL DEBT BINGE
14 DEBT-FUELLED FAULT LINES Global debt is now three times greater than global GDP
15 UK DEBT TIMELINE [TOTAL PUBLIC- AND PRIVATE-SECTOR]
16 2007 TIPPING POINT
17 THE UK PERSONAL DEBT CRUNCH % Personal Debt as % of Personal Income Source: Datastream, ONS
18 Savings fell to their worst level in almost half a century in 2007, the Government has revealed. The savings ratio, the proportion of domestic income saved in banks, insurance and pensions, declined to just 2.9 per cent, the lowest since 1959
19 UK: LOW SAVINGS CULTURE
20 ASIA: HIGH SAVING CULTURE
21 THE UK SAVINGS / DEBT TRAP
22 LESSON: THE CURSE OF EASY MONEY Gresham s Law: Bad money drives out good Sir Thomas Gresham 1558
23 Debt and the Intergenerational Divide HORIZON 2020S
24 AN AFFLUENT GERONTOCRACY? Over-65s spend over 100 billion a year 75 per cent of over-50s households own home Ave. household wealth all over-50s: 541,000 EU: over-60s market to grow by 81% to 2030 Source: ILC-UK Financial Wellbeing In Later Life
25 AN AFFLUENT GERONTOCRACY? In the 21 st century the average British citizen will live 30 years longer than in the 19 th century -- a unique, new generation of affluent, older people
26 OR THE MYTH OF AFFLUENT OLDIES? Household expenditure Early 50s: average 286 per week 80+: average 160 per week Pension wealth as proportion of total more than halves between 50 and 80 Strong relationship between older people s financial circumstances and mental wellbeing Source: ILC-UK Financial Wellbeing In Later Life
27 OR THE MYTH OF AFFLUENT OLDIES? Amongst older people total household wealth peaks between the ages of 60 to 64 with an average household wealth of 723,000. This decreases with age... households headed by the over-80s have an average wealth of below 300,000 Source: ILC-UK Financial Wellbeing In Later Life
28 OLDIES: A MIXED PICTURE Non-mortgage debt declines sharply with age Only 2 per cent of over-75s have mortgages Many over-50s vulnerable to poor financial wellbeing in later life There is no such thing as the older consumer Source: ILC-UK Financial Wellbeing In Later Life
29 THE MYTH OF THE OLDER CONSUMER Six Segments Conservative Consumers: 46% of older households... low incomes and low spend on non-essentials Foodies: 19% of households...relatively affluent Socialites: 12% of households a week average spend Burdened by Bills: 11% of households... Low incomes and high spend on housing, fuel and power Smokers: 9% of households... 15% of spending on tobacco and alcohol... more likely to rent their homes Recreation and clothing: 4% of households...high spenders with focus on clothes/shoes/recreation/culture Source: ILC-UK Financial Wellbeing In Later Life
30 THE SQUEEZED MIDDLE
31 TOMORROW S DEBTORS Intergenerational inequity continues to be the moral issue of our day. The Intergenerational Index makes it clear that the UK is failing its young. The UK, like other developed economies, has engaged in fiscal, educational, health and environmental child abuse. Prof. Laurence Kotlikoff MIT
32 By adding up the value of Britain s assets we can see that the younger generation faces a net liability of about 1.7 trillion In other words, each young person under 30 is inheriting a debt of about 74,000 Intergenerational Foundation What Are We Leaving To Our Children?
33 UK MORTGAGE CRUNCH TIMETABLE There are 3.3 million mortgage holders who have interest-only products 1.7 million have no linked repayment vehicle 934,000 have no plan for repayment 432,000 have not even thought about repayment Source: Citizens Advice
34 COLLECTIONS: A FUTURIST CHECKLIST Customer-centric strategies Online knowledge communities Predictive analytics Ageing challenge Debt and the Digital Native Harnessing smart
35 UK plc: The Growing Debt Challenge TOMORROW S WORLD JAMES BELLINI 10 SEPTEMBER 2015
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