JUNE QUARTER 2018 COMMENTARY
|
|
- Benedict Morris
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 JUNE QUARTER 2018 COMMENTARY Broadly, global economic growth continues to be solid with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting net growth of 3.9% in 2018 i and inflation remains relatively contained on the back of low wage growth in most developed economies. However, the potential divergence around many forecasters central economic scenarios appears to have widened as a result of trade tensions emanating from the USA and a wide array of geopolitical events. Protectionist policies announced, and threats made, by US President Trump remain key to the global growth outlook, however particularly for the US itself and China. On 6 th July 2018, the US imposed tariffs of 25% on $34bn in Chinese exports to the US, and Chinese authorities announced similar levies on the same amount of US exports to China. The US then threatened further action releasing a list of goods totaling $200bn of trade on which it would levy a tariff of 10%. The total of imports from China on which the US has now threatened to impose tariffs is now $500bn, which is a level at which China is able to respond with direct like-for-like tariffs given that US exports to China in 2017 were worth approximately $130bn. In response, China has lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organisation ii, the outcome of which remains to be seen. The IMF has warned that the tariffs announced by the US and the retaliation to date from Europe, China, Mexico and Canada could escalate and reduce global economic growth by 0.5% by 2020 iii. Despite this backdrop, the US economy has continued its recent momentum in many respects. US GDP growth for the first quarter of 2018 was 2.0%, below expectations for 2.2%, and lower than the 2.9% rate recorded in the last quarter of 2017 iv. However, employment gains continue to be strong, with Non-Farm Payrolls adding 223,000 positions during May and 213,000 in June, both up from 159,000 in April, which saw the unemployment rate dip below 4%, to 3.8% in May, and then return to 4% in June v. At these levels, US employment is clearly in full-employment territory. Wage pressures have continued to grow however wage inflation remains low, especially relative to the strength in employment and for this stage in the economic cycle. The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased interest rates again in June, the seventh increase since December 2015, to the range of %, as widely expected vi. The median expectations of members of the Fed s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased since the March meeting, and their expectations are now for an earlier increase in rates above the estimated neutral level (the level at which interest rates neither stimulate or sedate the economy) by the end of 2019, although their expected level of rates in 2020 was unchanged at around 0.50% above the neutral rate vii. As the tax cuts start to take effect and government spending increases, the IMF is forecasting expansion of the US economy at a rate of 2.9% for 2018 viii. In the Eurozone, inflation decreased to 1.0% over the year to June, which was in line with expectations ix, while GDP for the first quarter of 2018 remained at an above-trend 2.5% x. Confidence in the Eurozone appears to be holding up relatively well, against a very difficult backdrop, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remaining well above the level of 50 which indicates expansionary purchasing intentions by businesses, recording 55.1 in April, 54.1 in May and 54.9 in June xi. Political tensions in Italy, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone (and soon to be the third largest after the United Kingdom (UK) leaves), reached a crescendo following the uncertain election result earlier in the year. The catalyst on this occasion was the nomination of Paola Savona ( an avowed Eurosceptic ) as Finance Minister, which was rejected by Italian President, Sergio Mattarella late in May xii. After a strong response from the markets (refer to the graph of Italian bonds below), Mr Mattarella allowed more time for the coalition of the Five Star Movement and Lega parties to form government. In the end, a new Finance Minister, Giovanni Tria, was proposed and accepted, and both parties appear to have backed away from proposals to withdraw Italy from the European Union (EU). Page 1
2 Since then, markets have substantially calmed down. The chart to the left illustrates the reaction however also puts the recent rise in Italian bond yields into a historical context. There is, however, a high probability that uncertainty in Italy reemerges as some of the tax cut and spending increase policies on the agenda for the new government appear to be contrary to EU fiscal rules. Following the famous statement by European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, facilities were set up for Eurozone nations to use to access funding. However, the conditions attached to those facilities are unlikely to appeal to Italy s populist government. This prompted ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio, to comment that Italy knows the rules relating to the use of these facilities, adding they might want to read them again. xiii It is also, on this occasion, seemingly fortunate that Italy has a long history of short-lived governments. In June, the ECB also announced its intention to scale back its stimulus package by winding down is net asset purchasing program by the end of 2018, however confirmed an expectation to maintain the current level fo negative interest rates until mid-2019 xiv. Commenting on this situation in June, Mercer summed it up as follows: Mercer believes the probability of Italy leaving the euro remains extremely low, although clearly such a development would be a high impact event (and a worst case scenario). This view is partly informed by the commitments from the leaders of the new government, as well as popular support within Italy to remain within the single currency bloc. Nevertheless, we note that Europe still has not addressed the structural problems of the single currency mechanism (in particular, issues around fiscal transfers), and which many believe could lead to renewed financial and political instability in the longer term. xv In the UK, Brexit negotiations continue amid policy turmoil for Prime Minister, Theresa May, with Brexit Secretary, David Davis, and Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson (who many regarded as the face of the Brexit referendum) both resigning within 24 hours in protest against the form of the Brexit plan. In response, Mrs May has warned the UK parliament that there is a real risk of exiting the EU without an agreement. The Bank of England maintained current accommodative monetary policy settings. In July, the IMF cut its growth forecast for the UK for 2018 to 1.4%, reduced by 0.2% from its April forecast. Chinese GDP growth continued at a robust pace of 6.7% in the second quarter of 2018, in line with expectations xvi. Growth has been relatively steady at around this pace, which is slightly higher than Beijing s target growth rate of 6.5% for 2018 xvii, for some time now. Conditions for Chinese manufacturers continue to improve, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent history, with the Caixin PMI steady at 51.1 in May and 51.0 in June xviii. Page 2
3 The importance of Australia s economic relationship with China is never lost on any of us, and the current trade tensions between the US, a significant trade and security partner, and China create a difficult balancing act for our political leaders. The chart to the left illustrates this point clearly, both in terms of the importance of China for Australia s absolute level exports, however, more particularly, for the rate of growth in our exports over the past decade. supported our economy during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)), however remains at very high levels. Pleasingly, however, our exports of services, such as education and tourism, to China have continued to grow at a strong pace. Chinese visitors to Australia are now clearly the largest spending visitors each year xix. In recent times, the value of our resources trade with China has been somewhat volatile and broadly declining (from the once in a lifetime levels that Emerging economies have also been affected by a wide array of geopolitical events, including upcoming elections in Mexico and Brazil, debt related issues for Turkey and Argentina, the latter of which has sought an assistance package from the IMF. Oil prices moved higher as demand remained robust due to strong global economic growth and supplies appear as though they could be under threat due to geopolitical as tensions in Iran and Venezuela. Here at home, GDP growth for the March quarter surprised on the upside with a reading of 3.1%, relative to the Reserve Bank of Australia s (RBA s) expected rate of at least 2.75% at their May meeting, and with non-farm GDP increasing at a rate of 3.6% xx. Employment conditions remain robust, however slightly less so than in recent history, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.4% in May xxi. Inflation remains contained, allowing the RBA to maintain interest rates at their all-time low of 1.50%, where they have been since August The RBA also made an interesting point in the minutes for the June meeting relating to Australia s demographic trends, noting that strong population growth over the past decade has been driven in large part by net overseas migration of younger people, and that this has affected the age structure of the population. They believe that this is to an extent sufficient to reduce the impact of our otherwise aging population such that Australia s oldage dependency ratios were projected to increase by less than those of other advanced economies, despite a relatively high life expectancy. This would make Australia one of the youngest populations within this group of countries xxii. This is good news for all Australians however especially those that pay tax and those that receive government assistance, including the Age Pension. Summing up their view of economies abroad and at home, RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, stated: Page 3
4 The global economic environment was expected to remain favourable over the next couple of years, with most of Australia s major trading partners generally expected to grow at or above their trend growth rates. Inflation had remained low but had increased a little in some economies and further increases were expected, given the already tight labour markets, particularly in the major advanced economies. Against this backdrop, a number of central banks had withdrawn some monetary stimulus and further moves in this direction were expected. The Chinese economy had continued to grow solidly, with the authorities paying increased attention to the risks in the financial sector and the sustainability of growth. How the Chinese authorities navigate these various challenges would be important for growth in Australia and the rest of the world. Developments in US China trade relations would also be important for the outlook for the global economy. xxiii Investment Markets Growth asset class investment markets in general recovered from the weakness during the March quarter, which was a relatively positive period for economic and geopolitical news, to post solid gains during the June quarter, despite the more challenging economic and geopolitical backdrop. With interest rates in Australia remaining unchanged again at all-time lows, Australian cash again provided a modest return of 0.49% for the quarter and 1.78% for the year. Despite a negative start to the quarter, Australian fixed interest markets provided a return of 0.82% for the quarter and 3.09% for the year. International fixed interest markets also started the quarter with a negative return in April, however recovered in May and June to end the quarter with a modest gain of 0.15% for the quarter, and 1.85% for the year. Property investments, which bore the brunt of the volatility during the March quarter, recovered strongly both in Australia and overseas during the June quarter. Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs) provided positive returns in each of the three months during the quarter, resulting in a very strong return of 9.82% for the quarter, which dragged up the 12-month return to 13.20%. Their global counterparts, Global Real Estate Investment Trusts (G-REITs), followed a similar pattern and provided a similar return of 9.97% return for the quarter, resulting in an annual return of 8.95%. Australian shares were generally positive en masse for the quarter, achieving positive returns in each month and a very strong quarterly return of 8.47% and a return of 13.07% for 12 months. However, within the market, there was considerable company and sector specific volatility due to resource price movements and perceptions of the potential fall-out from the banking Royal Commission for various financial stocks. Returns from unhedged international shares followed a similar pattern, posting gains in each of the three months and a solid gain of 5.53% for the quarter for Australian investors who benefited from a reduction in the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar of 3.57% during the quarter. For the financial year, international shares achieved a strong total return of 15.39%. empowering your financial evolution TM Market Index Returns The table below summarises the returns for key market indices for the period to the end of the quarter: Page 4
5 Please note that the index for Global Property is hedged into Australian dollars thereby removing the impact of movements of the Australian dollar whereas for International Shares the index shown is not hedged meaning that this index includes the movements of the Australian dollar. Please note that these returns are before tax. Target Strategic Asset Allocation Weighted Market Index Returns The table below applies the above returns for the various asset class underlying markets on a weighted basis to our standard Target Strategic Asset Allocations for the various levels of risk tolerance. These returns will enable you to more appropriately compare your actual returns with the market index returns for the Target Strategic Asset Allocation set for your portfolio. You can determine which Target Strategic Asset Allocation Index is most appropriate for your portfolio by matching the Growth Allocation percentage in the table below with the Total for Growth Assets figure in the Target Weight column of the Target Strategic Asset Allocation v Actual Asset Allocation table in your personalized reports. For instance, if your personal Target Weight to growth assets is 50% you should compare with the Balanced returns below. If there are no figures in the Target Weight column of that table you should contact our office. Please note that the returns in the table below are before tax however some of your actual returns may be reported after tax. Page 5
6 General Advice Disclaimer The views expressed is this publication are solely those of the author; they are not reflective or indicative of Millennium3 Financial Services position, and are not to be attributed to Millennium3. They cannot be reproduced in any form without the express written consent of the author. The information (including taxation) is general in nature and may not be relevant to your individual circumstances. You should refrain from doing anything in reliance on this information without first obtaining suitable professional advice. You should obtain and consider a PDS before making any decision to acquire a product. Opt Out Clause: Mammoth Financial respects your privacy. Should you wish not to receive further publications please contact our office. yours sincerely, alex morris CFP SSA director & authorised representative mammoth financial pty ltd Contact Details Please feel welcome to contact our office via the contact form on our website or using any of the details below: p f e alex@mammothfinancial.com.au Sources: i ii The Guardian, China files complaint to WTO over Trump s $200bn tariff plan, 16/07/2018 iii BBC News, Trump tariffs will hurt global growth, IMF warns, 16/07/2018 iv v and vi vii 03/07/2018 viii BBC News, Trump tariffs will hurt global growth, IMF warns, 16/07/2018 ix x xi and xii xiiixiii Page 6
7 xiv 03/07/2018 xv xvi The Guardian, China files complaint to WTO over Trump s $200bn tariff plan, 16/07/2018 xvii 03/04/2018 xviii and xix Reserve Bank of Australia, Speech by Philip Lowe: Australia s Deepening Economic Relationship with China: Opportunities and Risks, 23/05/2018 xx 03/07/2018 xxi xxii 05/06/2018 xxiii 01/05/2018 Page 7
DECEMBER QUARTER 2018 COMMENTARY
DECEMBER QUARTER 2018 COMMENTARY Economic conditions evolved substantially as expected during the December quarter, with economic growth continuing at above-trend rates and inflation remaining contained
More informationDECEMBER QUARTER 2016 COMMENTARY
DECEMBER QUARTER 2016 COMMENTARY The United States (US) election result electing Donald Trump as President and with the Republican Party also controlling the Congress a so-called clean sweep - was a surprise
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationPerspective from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
FIXED INCOME October 15, 2018 Perspective from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group In this Issue: US Economy s Fundamentals Justify Optimism, but Inflation Still Subdued The current widespread optimism
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationThe Outlook for European Economies
The Outlook for European Economies Domestic demand-led moderate economic growth forecast to continue REIKO SHINOHARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO SHIN TAKAYAMA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE LONDON MUFG Bank,
More information2018 Global Investment Outlook
2018 Global Investment Outlook This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendation. For professional clients only. December 2017 Contents - Our macro outlook
More informationAustralian Hotel Market Property Prospects
Australian Hotel Market Property Prospects 2012 2021 Intro text to be supplied and go here. Intro text to be supplied and go here. Intro text to be supplied and go here. Intro text to be supplied and go
More informationThe Prospects Service
The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, January 2017 Toplines The world economy remains in a stage of heightened uncertainty, with ongoing Brexit negotiations,
More informationThe Prospects Service
The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, September 2017 Toplines The combination of rising consumer confidence, low borrowing costs and declining unemployment
More informationGlobal Travel Service
15 Nov 2018 Global Travel Service Global Highlights, November 2018 Economists Adam Sacks President of Tourism Economics asacks@oxfordeconomics. com David Goodger Director of Tourism Economics dgoodger@oxfordeconomi
More informationInternational Financial Market Report
Financial and Banking Operations Department - International Reserves Management Division - International Financial Market Report 9-13 July Podgorica, 18 July FX NEWS EUR/USD Over the first two days of
More informationFixed income market update. June BMO Fixed Income Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida bmogam.
Fixed income market update June 2018 BMO Fixed Income 1001 Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida 33131 bmogam.com/usfixedincome Fixed income market update Fixed Income Sectors Total Returns For the
More informationUK Outlook. Steady as she goes for the economy. February Economic Research Unit
UK Outlook February 218 Steady as she goes for the economy Eight months into the formal Brexit negotiations, sufficient progress has been made on Phase 1 issues and the focus has moved to the future relationship
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationFund Management Monthly Commentary
Fund Management Monthly Commentary Covering the month of January 2019 January Market Update Margetts monthly diary discusses major economic and market developments that occur over the month. It is written
More informationECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED
EBF Economic Outlook Nr 43 May 2018 2018 SPRING OUTLOOK ON THE EURO AREA ECONOMIES IN 2018-2019 ECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED EDITORIAL TEAM: Francisco Saravia (author), Helge Pedersen - Chair of the
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationSAMPLE. Adventurous Portfolio. Create your tomorrow. Quarterly Review July 2018
Adventurous Portfolio Quarterly Review July 2018 Create your tomorrow Q3 Our investment committee carried out the quarterly review of our governed investment portfolios. The information that follows summarises
More informationMonthly Market Snapshot
Monthly Market Snapshot MAY 2018 The Monthly Market Snapshot publication provides commentary on the global economy and the performance of financial markets Market Commentary With improved economic conditions
More informationEconomic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)
Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic
More informationFISCAL MONITOR SELECTED TOPICS
FISCAL MONITOR Fiscal Monitor Archives Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead May 2010 Fiscal Exit: From Strategy to Implementation November 2010 Shifting Gears April 2011 Addressing Fiscal Challenges
More informationCIO Markets Report. Key Observations Implications Markets Charts. Stephen Sexauer, CIO. CIO Markets Report
Key Observations Implications Markets Charts Key Observations and Implications 1. The Fed, Inflation and Jobs. The FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate to a range of 0.75%-1.00% at its March 15 meeting.
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationUK Outlook. Economy in holding pattern amid Brexit uncertainty. July Economic Research Unit
UK Outlook July Economy in holding pattern amid Brexit uncertainty While it has been a game of two halves for the UK economy over the first six months of - poor weather dampening activity in the first
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 11 th December 2018 Losing Momentum After a strong start to the year, global growth peaked in the first of 2018 and doesn t look like regaining momentum. Trade tensions
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding
More informationFriends Provident International Portfolio Strategy
Friends Provident International Portfolio Strategy January 2018 Investment Objective To obtain long-term growth through an actively-managed diversified portfolio that may invest in equities, real estate,
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationWill Trump s tariffs topple U.S. growth?
Capital market insights Conversation guide June 2018 Will Trump s tariffs topple U.S. growth? Global investors had plenty of reasons to worry over the last month including fresh doubts about the European
More informationPersonal Managed Funds and Future Lifestyle Plan. Investor Report
Personal Managed Funds and Future Lifestyle Plan Investor Report for the six months ended 31 March 2016 1 Getting the most from your Investor Report Your Investor Report makes it easy for you to see how
More informationWhat next for the US dollar?
US dollar exchange rates are key drivers of the global economy and investment markets, particularly given the dollar s status as the global reserve currency. It is therefore important to understand the
More informationRisk Insight. Is the Single Market overrated? What are the chances... Volume 9, Issue 5 30 th January Inside this issue
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 9, Issue 5 30 th January 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 Is the Single
More informationFISCAL MONITOR SELECTED TOPICS
FISCAL MONITOR SELECTED TOPICS Fiscal Monitor Archives Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead May 2010 Fiscal Exit: From Strategy to Implementation November 2010 Shifting Gears April 2011 Addressing Fiscal
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook - July 2017
Global Economic Outlook - July 2017 June 28, 2017 by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital, Brian Liebovich of Northern Trust Global economic activity has generally been good during the first six
More informationEconomic Insight. German growth outlook remains favorable. Executive Summary. Author: Economy temporarily shifts down a gear in the first quarter
Economic Insight German growth outlook remains favorable June 8, 2018 Author: GREGOR EDER +49.69.24431.3358 gregor.eder@allianz.com Executive Summary The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018,
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens. November 14 th 2016
Global PMI Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens November 14 th 2016 2 Global PMI at 11-month high in October Global economic growth kicked higher at the start
More informationA HIGH YIELDING RESILIENT ECONOMY:
A HIGH YIELDING RESILIENT ECONOMY: January 2017 BetaShares Strong Australian Dollar Fund (hedge fund) (ASX: AUDS) The BetaShares Strong Australian Dollar Fund (hedge fund) (ASX: AUDS) and the BetaShares
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationS LOW & U N S T E A DY
2019 SLOW & UNSTEADY We have read through all the market commentaries and outlook narratives that were sent to us in the latter part of 2018 by our contacts in the investing industry. The repeated theme
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
More informationIrish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
Irish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit 9th October 2018 Budget 2019 Public Finances in Balance The Irish economy has performed strongly in recent years, boosting tax revenues. Corporation
More informationGlobal Economic Perspective: August
In this Issue: Global Economic Perspective: August August 22, 2018 by Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments Strong US Economy Showing Few Signs of Trade Concerns The US economy has continued
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist. March 13, 2018
Global Economics Monthly Review March 13, 2018 Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please note that we will not publish the monthly review
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 10 May 2017
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 10 May 2017 Publication date: 11 May 2017 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on
More informationSTRATEGIC CONCEPTS: RETIREMENT INCOME STREAMS
RETIREMENT INCOME STREAM CONCEPTS One of the key benefits of the Australian retirement system is the flexibility surrounding the methods of using your accumulated assets to provide you with income in retirement.
More informationMarket Performance WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS. Is USD Strength Weighing Down EM Asia Stocks? Could Rising Italian Pressures Spillover to Europe?
1 OCTOBER 2018 Is USD Strength Weighing Down EM Asia Stocks? Since mid-april, the USD gained nearly 20% against emerging market (EM) Asia currencies and up 10% gains against G10 currencies. USD strength
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationCOMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) /... of XXX. amending Implementing Regulation (EU) No 680/2014 as regards templates and instructions
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, XXX [ ](2017) XXX COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) /... of XXX amending Implementing Regulation (EU) No 680/2014 as regards templates and instructions (Text with EEA
More informationINVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018
INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018 OVERVIEW Surveys and hard data show the global economy growing at a healthy pace with minimal inflation risk. Activity accelerated in Q2 and our expectation of 3.4% GDP growth
More informationGlobal PMI. Global growth lifted by emerging market upturn. August 8 th 2016
Global PMI Global growth lifted by emerging market upturn August 8 th 2016 2 Global PMI buoyed by emerging market upturn Global economic growth edged higher at the start of the third quarter, but failed
More informationSAMPLE. Adventurous Portfolio. Create your tomorrow. Quarterly Review November 2018
Adventurous Quarterly Review November 2018 Create your tomorrow Q4 Our Investment Committee carried out the quarterly review of our Governed Investment s. The information that follows summarises their
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook - January 2019
Global Economic Outlook - January 2019 January 4, 2019 by Carl Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Brian Liebovich, Vaibhav Tandon of Northern Trust In the old days (and by old, we mean twenty years ago), markets
More informationTHE U.S. ECONOMY & STOCK MARKET
THE U.S. ECONOMY & STOCK MARKET Stanley A. Nabi, CFA Vice Chairman August, 2011 EXHIBIT I Significant revisions of GDP data has reduced the magnitude of growth for several quarters and now indicate that
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 12 September 2018
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 12 September 2018 Publication date: 13 September 2018 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting
More informationEconomic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
November 8, 2017 Bank of Japan Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Miyazaki Yukitoshi Funo Member of the Policy Board (English translation
More informationMarket turmoil prevails, the economy continues to grow
ING Investment Office Publication date: 13 June 2018, 1.15 p.m. Monthly Investment Outlook June 2018 Market turmoil prevails, the economy continues to grow May June Asset allocation - + Market turmoil
More informationINDEX. Forex market outlook Donald Trump s rise and impact on the US dollar. Fed s policy and their hawkish stance
FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK 2018 1 INDEX Forex market outlook 2018 Donald Trump s rise and impact on the US dollar Fed s policy and their hawkish stance EUR/USD s recovery and Euro zone s political challenges
More informationUNCERTAINTY DIMS EURO AREA GROWTH
EBF Economic Outlook Nr 44 November 2018 2018 AUTUMN OUTLOOK ON THE EURO AREA ECONOMY IN 2018-2019 UNCERTAINTY DIMS EURO AREA GROWTH EDITORIAL TEAM: Francisco Saravia (author), Helge Pedersen, Chair of
More informationApril 13, Economics Research - Globanomics - Q4/16. Globanomics. World s Dashboard of Economic Indicators Q4 2016
April 13, 2017 Economics Research - Globanomics - Q4/16 Globanomics World s Dashboard of Economic Indicators Q4 2016 Globanomics: Global Economic Indicators Q4 16 1 Quarter at a Glance The IMF revised
More informationRetirement Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS)
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 4 June 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) DIGESTING RISKS FROM ITALY, GLOBAL GROWTH AND EM Asset allocation overview: Christophe
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook - July 2018
Global Economic Outlook - July 2018 July 5, 2018 by Carl Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Brian Liebovich, Vaibhav Tandon of Northern Trust The world economy generally performed well during the first half
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2016 Economic overview Economies around the world appear to be relatively resilient, with data signalling that in many countries, economic activities are expanding
More informationProjections for the Portuguese Economy:
Projections for the Portuguese Economy: 2018-2020 March 2018 BANCO DE PORTUGAL E U R O S Y S T E M BANCO DE EUROSYSTEM PORTUGAL Projections for the portuguese economy: 2018-20 Continued expansion of economic
More informationGuaranteed Investment Fund
Guaranteed Investment Fund As at 30th September 2018 Management of some of the Guaranteed Investment Fund tranches was transferred from Insight Investment to St Andrews Life Assurance (SALA). The tables
More informationUPDATE. Investment Market Conditions. Summary of key points. October 2018
Investment Market Conditions UPDATE 23 October 2018 Summary of key points Both short and long-term US interest rates rose by enough to trigger a significant but not catastrophic sell-off in US equities.
More informationEUROPEAN LONG/SHORT JANUARY 2016
EUROPEAN LONG/SHORT JANUARY 2016 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY There was certainly no shortage of talking points for investors in 2015. Monetary easing, low oil prices and political upheaval drove investor
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationResearch Briefing Global
Research Briefing Global Top ten calls for 2017 Trumponomics leads the way Economist Adam Slater Lead Economist +44(0)1865268934 Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact
More informationNorthern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts
2017 Quarter 1 Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Forecast summary The Northern Ireland economy enjoyed a solid performance in 2016 with overall growth of 1.5%, the strongest rate of growth
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016
Prepared by Meketa Investment Group Global Economic Outlook Projections for global growth continue to be lowered, as the economic recovery in many countries remains weak. The IMF reduced their 206 global
More informationChristopher Kent: Financial conditions and the Australian dollar - recent developments
Christopher Kent: Financial conditions and the Australian dollar - recent developments Address by Mr Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the XE
More informationCalifornia Travel & Tourism Outlook. April 2018
California Travel & Tourism Outlook April 2018 California travel forecast overview Total visitation to California is forecast to grow 2.9% in 2018, following a 2.0% expansion in 2017. The near-term outlook
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JULY 2018 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Feeling the Pinch The world economy generally performed well during the first half of 2018. A handful of emerging markets struggled, but their problems were at least partially
More informationEconomic forecasts. Summary. December 2014
December 2014 Summary The US economy has maintained momentum through the third quarter, once again led by investment and consumption. The solid employment growth of recent months suggests that wage pressures
More informationMARKET OUTLOOK FOR UNITED STATES & SOUTH AMERICA
MARKET OUTLOOK FOR UNITED STATES & SOUTH AMERICA Grain Market Outlook for the United States and South America by Steve Freed, Vice President of Grain Research, ADM Investor Services The following report
More informationOutlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel
Outlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel Adam Sacks President Tourism Economics @adam_sacks Adam Sacks President Tourism Economics @adam_sacks Outline The Outlook for
More informationGlobal economy in charts
Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.
More informationEconomic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
September 6, 2018 Bank of Japan Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Kanagawa Goushi Kataoka Member of the Policy Board (English translation
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Eighth Meeting October 12 13, 2018 Statement No. 38-31 Statement by Mr. Draghi European Central Bank Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
More informationGlobal Economic Watch
BBVA Research Global Economic Watch July 2018 / 1 Global Economic Watch July 2018 Steady global growth, but risks intensify Our BBVA-GAIN model projects that global growth could remain slightly above 1%
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy December 7 Released on December 7 Outlook for Australia Economic Activity Actual
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook April 2014 Stocks to Rebound & Post Further Gains as Global Growth Strengthens after Q1 Soft Patch, Earnings Rebound, Low Interest
More informationMacroeconomic Outlook November 2015
Macroeconomic Outlook November 2015 Philippe WAECHTER Head of Economic Research My twitter account @phil_waechter or http://twitter.com/phil_waechter My blog http://philippewaechter.en.nam.natixis.com
More informationVICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK MARCH 2017 QUARTERLY UPDATE 15 JUNE 2017 PREPARED FOR THE MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF VICTORIA STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE: Director Senior
More informationSwedish krona: A forecast revision
Economic and Financial Analysis 8 May 2018 FX 8 May 2018 Article Swedish krona: A forecast revision We expect the battered Swedish krona to remain under pressure as global trade tensions, domestic politics
More informationMACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
MACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 18 INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC MARKETS TEAM, MULTI ASSET GROUP GLOBAL SHARES CONSTRAINED BY TRADE WAR FEARS BUT AUSTRALIAN SHARES RELATIVELY RESILIENT 5 Australia -
More informationToo many firms pay lip service to outcomes-based investing the current volatility will test their commitment James Klempster, CFA
weekly digest 03 December 2018 Too many firms pay lip service to outcomes-based investing the current volatility will test their commitment James Klempster, CFA There has been a noticeable increase, over
More informationKeeping you informed matters
Keeping you informed matters Annual Investment Review January 2018 matters Page 2 of 12 Outlook Economic growth in the US and emerging economies is leading the way, with global growth falling in line.
More informationTarget Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Target Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until 2: p.m. Japan Standard Time on Wednesday, August 1, 218. Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices July 218 (English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese
More information2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS 2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy January 2, 2019 Key takeaways» We believe U.S. economic growth
More information