Slow and Steady: Drawdown Behaviours in Phased Withdrawal Retirement Income Products
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1 Slow and Steady: Drawdown Behaviours in Phased Withdrawal Retirement Income Products Igor Balnozan University of New South Wales July 218 Supervisors: Associate Professor Anthony Asher Scientia Professor Robert Kohn Professor Denzil Fiebig Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
2 Spoilers 1 Introduction 2 Methodology and Results 3 Findings 4 Summary Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
3 Spoilers 1 Introduction 2 Methodology and Results 3 Findings 4 Summary Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
4 Motivation Population Ageing Sustainability (DB to DC, Government Pensions) Retiree Risk Management and Wellbeing Phased withdrawal / account-based pension / allocated pension Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
5 Research Aim Identify and explain drawdown behaviours in phased withdrawal products, to inform appropriate retirement income product design, policymaking and financial advice. Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
6 Data Description 44, pensioners Multiple super funds Up to 12 years of drawdowns observed Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
7 Spoilers 1 Introduction 2 Methodology and Results 3 Findings 4 Summary Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
8 Methodology Three Components Panel Data Models Grouping and Cluster Analysis Categorical Regression Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
9 Panel Visualisation Regular Drawdown Rate.25.2 Regular Drawdown Rate Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
10 Panel Visualisation Excess Drawdown Rate.25 Excess Regular Drawdown Rate Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
11 Panel Visualisation Regular Drawdown Amount 3 Regular Drawdown Amount 2 1 Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
12 Panel Visualisation Account Balance (FY Start) 3 Account Balance at Start 2 1 Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
13 Manual Grouping Follow Minima.1 Excess Regular Drawdown Rate Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
14 Manual Grouping Draw 1% 1. Regular Drawdown Rate Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
15 Manual Grouping Prefer Level Amount 5 4 Regular Drawdown Amount Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
16 Cluster Analysis Level Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
17 Cluster Analysis Revise Down Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Change in Regular Drawdown Amount Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
18 Cluster Analysis Minimum Pre-GFC.1 Excess Regular Drawdown Rate Account Type Legacy Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
19 Cluster Analysis Quickdraw.9 Total Drawdown Rate.6.3. Account Type Legacy Modern Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
20 Spoilers 1 Introduction 2 Methodology and Results 3 Findings 4 Summary Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
21 General Findings Table: General Findings Face Higher Minimum Drawdown Rates Larger Account Balance Regular Drawdown at Minimum Rate Make Adhoc Drawdowns Faster Regular Drawdowns Faster Adhoc Drawdowns Older More likely More likely Less likely More likely More likely More likely Less likely Female Less likely Less likely More likely Retired Later More likely Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
22 Behavioural Findings Two drawdown rules explain > 75% of sample: 48% used MDR as anchor 28% liked level dollar amounts 35% revise down Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
23 Behavioural Findings Larger Account Balance Table: Behavioural Findings Follow Minimum Drawdown Rates Draw Level $ Amounts Female More likely More likely Less likely Retired Later More likely Legacy Account More likely Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
24 Implications Policy Gravity of minimum drawdown rates Product design Stepped annuities OR better value Financial advice Modest annuities + liquid account Regulation (Prudential Standards) Financial advice: whose best interests? CIPRs: design and defaults Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
25 Adhoc Analysis 35% draw adhoc in sample Figure: Adhoc Utilisation Rate Histogram 1.5 Density Adhoc Utilisation Rate Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
26 Spoilers 1 Introduction 2 Methodology and Results 3 Findings 4 Summary Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
27 Summary Analysed drawdown behaviour in account-based pensions Largely heuristic- and/or default-driven behaviour Opportunity to extend analysis Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
28 See More Working paper on APRA Website Documents/I%2Balnozan_Brian%2Gray_217.pdf Literature review Technical details More on panel data models More pretty pictures Igor Balnozan (UNSW) Drawdowns Working Paper July / 24
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