The implications of mortality heterogeneity on longevity sharing retirement income products

Transcription

1 The implications of mortality heterogeneity on longevity sharing retirement income products Héloïse Labit Hardy, Michael Sherris, Andrés M. Villegas white School of Risk And Acuarial Studies and CEPAR, UNSW Sydney white 26th Annual Colloquium of Superannuation Researchers 2-3 July 218, UNSW Sydney white

2 Agenda Heterogeneity in mortality Mortality by income in England and Wales Longevity risk and annuity puzzle Landscape of longevity sharing income products Impact of heterogeneity on longevity pooling products Conclusions and future work

3 Heterogeneity in mortality Well-documented relationship between mortality and socioeconomic variables: Education, Income, Occupation, Deprivation Difference in life expectancy at age 65, by income group relative to the population average Source: OECD (216). Note: Australia is at age 6.

4 Mortality by Income in England and Wales Weekly household income by Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) 1. Household Income distribution by MSOA Houshold income percentile Total weekly income ( )

5 Mortality by Income in England and Wales: Males 215 Mortality by age and income percentile Male Mortality rate by income percentile Male: log death rate Death rate age Household income percentile Assume mortality rate at age x in percentile i, µ x,i, is a quadratic function of age with convergence by percentile at older ages: log µ x,i = a + s b (i)(x x ) + c(x x ) 2

6 Mortality by Income in England and Wales: Males 215 Mortality by age and income percentile Male Mortality rate by income percentile Male: log death rate Death rate age Household income percentile Fit a GAM assuming mortality rate at age x in percentile i, µ x,i, is a quadratic function of age with convergence by percentile at older ages: log µ x,i = a + s b (i)(x x ) + c(x x ) 2

7 Mortality by Income in England and Wales: Males 215 Mortality by age and income percentile Male Mortality rate by income percentile Male: log death rate Death rate age Household income percentile Fit a GAM assuming mortality rate at age x in percentile i, µ x,i, is a quadratic function of age with convergence by percentile at older ages: log µ x,i = a + s b (i)(x x ) + c(x x ) 2

8 Cohort Life Expectancy by Income in England and Wales: Males age 65 in 216 Life Expectancy by income percentile Life Expectancy by income Years 24 Years Sex Female Male Household income percentile Household income Sex Female Male Allowance for mortality improvements: Lee-Carter model with cohort effects: log µ xt = α x + β x κ t + γ t x Fitted to England and Wales Males age 5-89, years Assume same improvement for all percentiles

9 Survival function by Income in England and Wales: Males age 65 in 216 Survival function by income percentile Suvival probability Male x Age at death statistics Income percentile EW Q median Q

10 Implications of heterogeneity in mortality Important implications on social and financial planning Public policy for tackling inequalities Social security design Annuity reserving and pricing Longevity risk management Our objective: Investigate the impact of of heterogeneity on longevity pooling products

11 Longevity risk: Types of deviations in mortality a) Deviations around expected mortality rates Mortality rates sometimes higher, sometimes lower than expected Random fluctuations, idiosyncratic risk Individual mortality is involved (Usual pooling arguments) b) Deviations from expected mortality rates Mortality rates are systematically above or below what is expected Systematic risk Aggregate mortality is involved (pooling arguments do not apply)

12 Longevity risk: Reluctance to purchase annuities For individuals annuities are the only alternative for obtaining full coverage against longevity risk Yaari (1965) shows that they are optimal for a risk-averse utility-maximizing individual with no bequest

13 Longevity sharing retirement income products landscaspe Product Financial Longevity Risk Risk Idiosyncratic Systematic Life annuity Provider Provider Provider Systematic Withdrawal Individual Individual Individual Income Tontine Provider Pool Pool Group self-annuitisation Pool Pool Pool Annuity Overlay Fund Individual Pool Pool Mortality-linked fund Individual Provider Provider Longevity-linked Annuity Provider Provider Individual Recent developments by academics (Valdez, Piggott, and Wang 26, Donnelly, Guillén, and Nielsen (214), Milevsky and Salisbury (215)) Attention by policy makers: Australian Financial System Enquiry (214) and Comprehensive Income Products for Retirement (216)

14 Traditional Life Annuity The insurer takes financial risk, systematic longevity risk, and idyosincratic longevity risk The individual benefits from mutuality For an alive annuitant the reserve is given by where F t+1 = F t (1 + r) (1 + θ ) }{{}}{{}}{{} b Financial Mortality Benefit credit credit b = S ä x and θ = l l +1 l +1 = 1 p 1 is the mortality drag or extra-yield from mutuality.

15 Traditional life annuity: Mortality drag 4% Extra Yield from Mutuality 3% θ 2% % % Note: Based on England and Wales Male mortality with Lee-Carter + Cohort improvement for a male age 65 in 216

16 Income Tontines (Milevsky and Salisbury 215) retirees aged 65 and each invests S = $ to buy a r = 4% perpetuity 75 Survivors 6 Total Tontine Payout Perpetuity tontine 75 Individual Benefit Perpetuity tontine l 5 B t 4 b t Perpetuity Tontine l() B(t) b(t)

17 Income Tontines (Milevsky and Salisbury 215) retirees aged 65 and each invests S = $ to buy a r = 4% perpetuity 75 Survivors 6 Total Tontine Payout Natural tontine Perpetuity tontine 75 Individual Benefit Natural tontine Perpetuity tontine l 5 B t 4 b t Perpetuity Tontine l() B(t) b(t) Natural Tontine l() B(t) b(t)

18 Natural Income Tontine: members Survivors 15 Benefit 75 l 5 b t

19 Natural Income Tontine: members Survivors 15 Benefit 75 l 5 b t

20 Natural Income Tontine: members Survivors 15 Benefit 75 l 5 b t

21 Natural Income Tontine: members Survivors 15 Benefit 75 l 5 b t

22 Natural Income Tontine: members Survivors 15 Benefit 75 l 5 b t

23 Natural Income Tontine: members Survivors 15 Benefit 75 l 5 b t

24 Traditional annuity vs. Income Tontine/GSA Traditional Annuity Income tontine / GSA Financial Risk Provider Provider / Pool Longevity Risk Provider Pool Fund F t+1 = F t (1 + r)(1 + θ ) b F t+1 = F t (1 + r)(1 + θ) b t Mortality drag Based on expected mortality Based on pool mortality θ = l l+1 l +1 θ = l l +1 l +1 Benefit b = S ä x b = S l ä x, b t = b l Guaranteed Variable but fairly stable Lower due to Higher due to capital requirement no capital requirement Income tontines and group self-annuitisation are promising alternatives for providing longevity risk protection at a lower cost

25 Tontine/GSA: homogeneous members Pool: EW males; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 5 b t Male Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

26 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: 2 in each percentile; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 7 b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

27 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: 2 in each percentile; Initial Investment: on average Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 7 b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

28 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: percentile, percentile 9; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 5 b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

29 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: 8 percentile, 2 percentile 9; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 4 b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

30 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: 6 percentile, 4 percentile 9; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

31 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: 4 percentile, 6 percentile 9; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

32 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: 2 percentile, 8 percentile 9; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 4 b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

33 Tontine/GSA: heterogeneous members Pool: percentile, percentile 9; Initial Investment: Pricing mortality: EW males; Pricing interest rate: 4% Survivors Benefit l 5 b t Money's Worth = Presente Value of Benefits / Initial Investment

34 Conclusions and work in progress Longevity pooling products have attracted recently significant attention Practice, academic literature, policy makers Promising alternative to traditional annuities for covering longevity risk We have highlighted the impact of mortality heterogeneity Important redistribution in favour of the richest Differences in wealth increase the redistribution Further steps Impact of financial assumptions Even if inequitable, are pooling products still utility enhancing? Possible solutions to reduce redistribution Change mortality rate assumptions for pricing Group specific prices

35 x x x Thank you! x a.villegas@unsw.edu.au (Andrés M. Villegas) x x

36 References I Donnelly, Catherine, Montserrat Guillén, and Jens Perch Nielsen Bringing cost transparency to the life annuity market. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 56. Elsevier B.V.: doi:.16/j.insmatheco Milevsky, Moshe A., and Thomas S Salisbury Optimal retirement income tontines. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 64. Elsevier B.V.: doi:.16/j.insmatheco OECD Fragmentation of retirement markets due to differences in life expectancy. In OECD Business and Finance Outlook 216, Paris: OECD Publishing. The Australian Government the Treasury Financial System Inquiry Final Report. November Development of the framework for Comprehensive Income Products for Retirement. December. Valdez, Emiliano A, John Piggott, and Liang Wang. 26. Demand and adverse selection in a pooled annuity fund. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 39:

37 References II doi:.16/j.insmatheco Yaari, Menahem E Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer. The Review of Economic Studies 32 (2): 137. doi:.237/