Five - Year Financial Forecast. Presentation to Board of Education Schoharie CSD

Transcription

1 Five - Year Financial Forecast Presentation to Board of Education Schoharie CSD

2 FINANCIAL TO This forecast is based upon our purpose to continue to improve student educational achievement as well as to meet the prescribed learning standards and graduation requirements. The financial implications are in alignment with the District's educational philosophy: To Ensure that the District has the Fiscal Capacity to Provide the Resources for Increased Educational Opportunities for EVERY Schoharie Central School District Student. 2

3 FINANCIAL TO Assumptions for Budget Appropriations: Funding is estimated for future settlements of employee collective bargaining contracts. Equipment line item has dollars for computer technology replacements. Health Insurance and Prescription costs are still expected to continue to increase at 2% to 5% each year. Debt Service expenses reflect a schedule of outstanding capital project bonds. Repayment of bonds results in corresponding State Building Aid, which is currently 83.8%. We receive the aid in the same year as the debt service expenditure. 3

4 FINANCIAL TO Assumptions for Budget Appropriations(continued): TRS employer contribution rates are 16.25% for but will rise to as much as 17.75% for of teacher salaries. ERS rate is an average of 20.1% for and will probably rise in ensuing years. Bus purchases are based upon a 7 to 10 year replacement cycle and allocation of an average of 300,000 per year for bus purchase debt service. 4

5 FINANCIAL TO Assumptions for Revenues: Annual appropriated fund balance of at least 1.1 million Foundation Aid in accordance with state budget adopted for , and 1 to 2 percent increase each ensuing school year. Expenditure-driven aids based upon levels of expenditure and Present Law ; costs reimbursed in the year following expense at the aid ratios set forth by State Education Department calculations. 5

6 FINANCIAL TO Areas of uncertainty revenue related: Uncertainty of assessed valuation of properties, along with equalization rates. Many changes with the STAR program. Possible inability to continue annual fund balance appropriation at current level. Stagnate interest earning rates and future impact on interest earnings on bank deposits. Continuing challenges to assessments by utility companies. Need to take into account the tax levy limit mandate ( 1.4 to 1.6% for ). 6

7 FINANCIAL TO Areas of uncertainty expense related: Budget increases resulting from negotiations with employee bargaining units. Staffing needs to accommodate programmatic changes and to provide students greater opportunities to meet or exceed state academic performance standards and graduation requirements. Uncertainty of annual increases in health insurance premiums. Potential for significant increases in energy costs, especially diesel fuel and heating oil. Uncertainty of future student enrollment, including enrollments in special education. 7

8 FINANCIAL TO ENROLLMENT Elem K-6 (not Pre-k) Grades 7-12 Out-of-District ACTUAL % -0.23% 0.35% 0.00% -0.34% 8

9 FINANCIAL TO BUDGET APPROPRIATIONS 9,425,516 43,695 1,292, ,326 83, ,305 1,346,758 6,427,866 2,073, ,708,281 43,258 1,318, ,283 82, ,362 1,380,427 6,620,702 2,009, ,999,529 42,825 1,344, ,290 81, ,458 1,414,937 6,819,323 1,814, ,299,515 42,397 1,371, ,347 80, ,865 1,450,311 7,023,903 1,785, SALARIES EQUIPMENT CONTRACTUAL SUPPLIES SOFTWARE, LIBRARY, TEXTS TUITION - OTHER SCHOOLS BOCES EMPLOYEE BENEFITS DEBT SERVICE / OTHER TOTAL DOLLAR CHANGE 21,018,989 21,591,602 22,052,513 22,397,829 22,917,787 23,552, , , , , , % 2.13% 1.57% 2.32% 2.77% PERCENTAGE CHANGE 9,150,986 44,136 1,266, ,420 83, ,500 1,313,910 6,240,647 2,002, ,608,501 41,973 1,398, ,453 79, ,619 1,486,569 7,234,620 1,854,252

10 FINANCIAL TO APPROPRIATIONS BUDGET TOTAL With Debt Service Change % Change 21,018,989 21,591,602 22,052,513 22,397,829 22,917,787 23,552, , , , , , % 2.13% 1.57% 2.32% 2.77% TOTAL Without Debt Service Change % Change 19,016,430 19,517,798 20,042,661 20,583,254 21,132,306 21,698, , , , , , % 2.69% 2.70% 2.67% 2.68% 10

11 FINANCIAL TO BUDGET ,474,204 Fund Balance Usage 9,476,630 Basic State Aid 308,381 All Other Sources Payment in Lieu of Taxes 493,918 Property Taxes and Related 9,265,856 REVENUES ,500,000 9,618, , ,796 9,629, ,400,000 9,763, , ,872 10,025, ,300,000 9,860, , ,150 10,352, ,200,000 9,959, , ,633 10,852, ,100,000 10,058, , ,325 11,465,688 Total With Building Aid and Capital Reserve Use 21,018,989 21,591,602 22,052,513 22,397,829 22,917,787 23,552, , , , , , ,791 Dollar Difference 2.87% 2.72% 2.13% 1.57% 2.32% 2.77% Percent Difference TAX LEVY CHANGE TAX LEVY % CHANGE 363, % 396, % 326, % 500, % 613, %

12 FINANCIAL TO Analysis of data previously presented Based upon the factors listed previously in the presentation, the baseline budget is projected to increase each year in the range of 2 to 3 percent, as a matter of staying the course. However, due to the still slow economic recovery from The Great Recession, there remains tremendous uncertainty with the state aid component of the financial picture. This huge unknown obviously hinders our long-range planning analysis. Thus, we need to be very conservative with projections of any state aid increases. The enrollment pattern seems to have stabilized following the drop caused in 2011 by Hurricane Irene. 12

13 FINANCIAL TO Analysis of data previously presented (continued) Note that even with moderate budget growth of an average of 2.6%, the resulting tax levy increase each year would greatly exceed the tax levy limitation formula. Therefore, an additional draw-down of available fund balance, and/or substantial reductions in budget appropriations, would be necessary. 13

14 Five - Year Financial Forecast for Schoharie Central SD THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION