TRENDS IN STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE
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1 Presented by Jeff Pantages, CFA Chief Investment Officer Alaska Permanent Capital Management 900 W 5th Avenue Suite 601 Anchorage, AK jeff@apcm.net TRENDS IN STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE Presented to Alaska Municipal League November 21, 2013 APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking
2 Pop QUIZ: NO Googling! Which city has the highest property taxes (% market value)? Anchorage 1.3% Atlanta 0.7% Milwaukee 2.6% Jacksonville 1.3% New York City 0.6% Which state has the lowest debt rating from Moody's? California A1 Maryland AAA Illinois A3 Hawaii Aa2 Alabama Aa1 Only one state has defaulted since Which one was it? Arkansas Florida Delaware New Mexico Pennsylvania Which state has the lowest % of government workers? Alaska 28.0% Washington 19.0% Virginia 22.8% Indiana 11.5% Nebraska 13.5% Which city has the lowest debt rating from Moody s? New York City Aa2 Philadelphia A2 San Francisco Aa1 Seattle Aa1 San Antonio AAA APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 1
3 Agenda An Update on the U.S. Economy Trends in State and Local Government Finance The Municipal Bond Market APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 2
4 Expect Growth at Moderate Pace Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 3
5 Unemployment Rate Remains Elevated Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 4
6 Housing Recovery Seems on Track Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 5
7 Inflation Remains Tame APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 6
8 Bond Yields Still Near Historic Lows! 10 Year Treasury 2.61% as of September 30, 2013 APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 7
9 Federal Reserve Policy: There Be Dragons! Source: J.P. Morgan APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 8
10 Budget Deficits = Rising Debt APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 9
11 Kicking the Can Down the Road Again. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 10
12 The Only Constant: Policy Uncertainty Daily News-Based Economic Policy Uncertainty Source: Chart shows a 7 day moving average of the index value. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 11
13 Trends in State and Local Government Finance APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 12
14 Trends in State and Local Government Finance Revenues Generally Improving Income and sales taxes rising faster than property taxes State and Local Payrolls Still Pinched S&L employment at 19 million or 14% of total Federal Austerity Remains a Challenge Dependency on Federal Government is at 11%, but great variation across the states Pension and Healthcare Funding Issues Remain Pensions 73% funded using generous assumptions Healthcare Fugetaboutit! Implications of new GASB standards APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 13
15 Private Job Market is Improving, But Government Employment Still Contracting Private Government APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 14
16 State and Local Tax Growth State Taxes Local Taxes APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 15
17 State Tax Collections Continue to Rebound Income Tax Sales Tax Total Tax APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 16
18 But Tax Revenue Recovery is Relatively Weak APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 17
19 State Budget Shortfalls Decline Source: BlackRock. Data: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Years represented are fiscal years. * Reported to date. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 18
20 States With the Greatest Reliance on the Federal Government Source: BlackRock * Data for Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia are combined due to the high percentage of commuters in the area. Grant calculations exclude funds that would be sequestered in FY 2013 but would be disbursed October 1, 2013, at the start of FY Data: Pew analysis of Federal Funds Information for States, Census Bureau State and Local Government Finance Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Personnel Management, Census Bureau Consolidated Federal Funds Report and Bureau of Economic Analysis data. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 19
21 Local Governments Still Struggling APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 20
22 Revenue Losses Due to the Great Recession Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts. Nontax revenue includes revenue from investments primarily. It does not include intergovernmental revenue or charges and fees. See the full methodology at pewstates.org/city-fiscal-methodology APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 21
23 Public Safety Last Budget Area to Be Cut Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 22
24 Cities With High Pension Costs APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 23
25 State and Local Pension Funding Ratios Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Note: 2012 is authors estimate. Data: Various 2012 actuarial valuations; Public Plans Database ( ); and Zorn ( ). APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 24
26 Distribution of Funding Ratios for Public Plans Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Data: Authors calculations and various 2012 actuarial valuations. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 25
27 Aggregate State and Local Pension Liability under Alternative Discount Rates Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Note: 2012 data in trillions of dollars. The $3.8 trillion figure is the value for the liabilities of plans in our sample, which on average are calculated using a discount rate of about 8 percent. Data: Authors calculations and various 2012 actuarial valuations. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 26
28 Aggregate Funded Ratios for State and Local Plans: Currently Reported versus GASB Proposals Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Data: Authors calculations from various actuarial valuation reports (2012) and the PPD ( ). APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 27
29 R a t i o o f A s s e t s t o L i a b i l i t i e s Alaska Funding Ratios 110% 100% 90% U.S. Composite* 2012: 73.1% 80% 70% 60% 50% AK TRS 2012: 49.4% AK PERS 2012: 57.4% 40% Data: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College; The Funding of State and Local Pensions: ; July 2013 * U.S. Composite is a sampling of 126 plans which represent approximately 90% of the assets in state-administered plans and 30% of assets in plans administered at the local level. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 28
30 State Assistance: A Cash Infusion Solution? Source: State of Alaska ARM Board APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 29
31 Pension vs. Retiree Healthcare Funding Ratios for Large Cities Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts. Note: Retiree health care is the primary component of Other Post-Employment Benefits, which also include other non-pension benefits such as life insurance. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 30
32 The Municipal Bond Market APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 31
33 The Municipal Bond Market APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 32
34 Municipalities in The Headlines APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 33
35 Moody s Outlook for State and Local Governments Moody s has had negative outlooks on state & local government sectors for 6 years (recently upgraded states to stable) Downgrades have outpaced upgrades for 17 consecutive quarters Upgrades Rating Changes by Number Downgrades 0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Source: Moody s Investors Service APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 34
36 Yield Curve: Municipals vs. Treasuries Revenue Muni A Rated U.S. Treasuries APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 35
37 Yield Ratios: Municipals Stressed vs. Corporates 100% 30 Year AA- Muni Yield as a % of 30 AA Corporate Yield APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 36
38 Municipal Funds Have Seen Recent Outflows Source: Cumberland Advisors, Morgan Stanley APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 37
39 Municipal Bond Market Challenges Generally an illiquid market, and now no AAA bond insurance! Unfunded liabilities along with the costs of employee compensation packages increase risks Detroit and others looking for bondholders to pay their fair share so ability and willingness to pay is questioned Tax exemption of municipals is questioned by federal government in search for new revenues This, despite a near pristine track record and very few actual defaults through history! APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 38
40 Historical Bond Defaults Rating Municipals Corporates AAA 0.00% 0.48% AA 0.01% 0.86% A 0.04% 2.22% All Ratings 0.13% 11.17% Data: Moody s APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 39
41 Average Bond Default Recovery 30 Days Post Default Ultimate Recovery Municipal Bonds 59.9% 67.0% Corporate Bonds 31.0% 41.0% Data: Bloomberg News: Munis Default Less, Pay Back More Than Corporates, Moody s Says 2/11/2010 APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 40
42 Two Problem Children: Detroit APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 41
43 Price: Detroit 5.00% 4/1/2025 $0.85 $0.71 APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 42
44 and Puerto Rico Source: The Economist, Moody s Investors Service. * State/territory debt only. APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 43
45 Price: Puerto Rico 5.00% 7/1/2034 Par $0.67 APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 44
46 In Summary U.S economy on the mend with tepid growth and low inflation Global synchronized expansion in part due to easy money Long-term entitlements problematic for federal, state, and local governments States in better shape than localities due to diversity of revenue and ability to shift costs to local governments Municipal bond market stressed for a variety of reasons, including low rates, tax uncertainty, tight budgets, and headline risks APCM Sustainable Investment Thinking 45
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