Republic of Senegal Ministry of Economy and Finance Direction of Forecasting and Economic Studies ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INFORMATION FOR INVESTORS

Transcription

1 Republic of Ministry of Economy and Finance Direction of Forecasting and Economic Studies 1 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INFORMATION FOR INVESTORS

2 2 Summary Presentation of : some statistical benchmarks Sovereign debt rating Regional integration: member of UEMOA and ECOWAS Solid growth and a diversified economy Targeted reforms real Sector public Finance external sector monetary situation economic prospects comparative Analysis

3 - is a country open to the rest of the world. -Its geographical position makes it an ideal platform and a gateway to West Africa. 3 is the African continent s western-most advanced country in the Atlantic Ocean at the confluence of Europe, Africa and the Americas, and a crossroads of major sea and air routes. ItisboundednorthbyMauritania,eastbyMali,southby Guinea and Guinea Bissau, on the west by the Atlantic Oceanona500kmfrontage.TheGambiaisanenclave of over 300 km within the territory of. Cape Verde Islands are located 560 km off the coast of. is a laic, democratic and social republic that guarantees equality of all citizens before the law, without distinction of origin, race, sex, religion. The constitution establishes the principle of democracy by saying that sovereignty belongs to the ese people who exercise it through their representatives or by means of referendum. is characterized in West Africa for its political stability and social cohesion since independence in 1960.

4 : some statistical benchmarks 4 key Facts Area 196,722 km2 Population 12.2 million (2009) Capital city (Dakar) population 2.5 million (2009) Population growth Currency 2.6% per year, doubling the population every 25 years CFA franc (XOF), peg 1 Euro = FCFA Real GDP growth 6.1% ( ), 3.2% ( ) and, 4.2% in 2010 Nominal GDP 6,359.7 billion FCFA or U.S. $ billion (in 2010) Per capita GDP 509,774.4 FCFA or U.S. $ 1,029 (2010) Inflation 1.4% ( ), 4.6% ( ) and, 1.2% in 2010 Urbanization 42% of urban population (2009) against 23% in 1960 Sovereign debt rating B + (S & P), B1 (Moody's)

5 : some statistical benchmarks 5 key Facts Population under 20 years 50.9% (2009) Life expectancy at birth 57.8 years (2009) Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) 94.4% (2010) Unemployment rate 14.5% (survey of the capital expenditure, 2008) Prevalence of HIV / AIDS 0.7% in 2010 Malaria morbidity 5.6% en 2008

6 Sovereign debt rating 6 B1(Moody s) The Moody's rating is based on the fact that is characterized by: o a relative macroeconomic stability and a stable political situation; o a sustained growth through significant investments in infrastructure; oa ranking in the bottom of the middle-income countries in 2010; o a potentially unlimited access to foreign exchange because of its membership in the Economic and Monetary Union of West Africa (UEMOA); o an increasing but moderate debt; o a support of the international financial community B+(Standard & Poor s) Rating from Standard and Poor's is justified by: o economic and fiscal performance in 2010 better than expected; othe continued economic recovery, with annual growth expected between 4% and 5% over the period, thanks to a proactive economic policy which, however, should keep government deficits under 5% of GDP in 2011 and 2012.

7 is well underway in the regional integration process. In both the African Union (AU) and the two West African organizations (UEMOA and ECOWAS), has a great influence. 7. a member of UEMOA The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) has eight member countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, and Togo. Free movement of persons, goods, services and capital. Population of more than 90 million people UEMOA GDP: CFA 34,539.6 billion francs, about USD 77 billion (2010). Joint independent Central Bank (BCEAO) and a common currency, the CFA franc (XOF) Guarantee of convertibility of the CFA franc by France to the fixed rate of CFA francs to one Euro In return, the Central Bank must deposit 50% of its net foreign assets in the books of the French Treasury s account of operations. Centralization of foreign exchange reserves of the Union All this makes a crisis of balance of payments less likely in the countries of the Union member of the ECOWAS The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has fifteen (15) country members: Benin, Burkina Faso,, Côte d'ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger,,, Sierra Leone and Togo. Population: million in 2010 GDP: U.S. $ billion in 2010

8 A solid growth and a diversified economy 8 A robust growth has recorded an average annual growth rate of 4% between 2000 and 2010 despite external shocks recorded in this period (energy, food and financial crises). After a slowdown in 2008 (3.2%) and 2009 (2.2%), 's economy has rebounded in 2010 with a real GDP growth rate of 4.2%. The implementation of the Accelerated Growth Strategy in key sectors (agriculture, fisheries, tourism, textiles and ICT) is expected to boost the economy in the medium and long term A diversified economy The ese economy, mainly based on primary activities including agriculture after independence, has undergone profound changes. The secondary sector has grown significantly, particularly mining, food industries, chemical industries, building materials and construction. The tertiary sector has risen to the forefront thanks to the dynamism of transportation, telecommunications, business services, hosting services and catering. Exports are relatively diversified: no product represents over a quarter of foreign sales.

9 A diversified economy but heavily dominated by the tertiary sector. The share of informal sector in GDP has averaged 46.7% over the periods. 9 The central public administration plays an important role in the march of the ese economy. It has about 86,000 agents. The primary sector is dominated by agriculture and fishing Structure of nominal GDP The tertiary sector is the most important sector. Over the recent period, growth was driven by transport, post and telecommunications, financial services... The secondary sector is very diverse. Its dynamism is supported by the chemical, food processing, cement, construction, etc...

10 Targeted reforms is one of seven(7) African countries and only French-speaking country, having signed with the IMF on a program supported by the Economic and Financial Policy Support Instrument(ISPE). This type of program is restricted to countries with a high degree of macroeconomic stability. Major reforms are undertaken in as part of this ISPE program, particularly in the field of public finance management and governance and private sector development Public Finance Management and gouvernance Setting up a plan of budgetary and financial reforms (PRBF), based on the results of the (2007) PEFA assessment; Improvement of the composition and efficiency of public spending; Review of tax expenditures for their rationalization; Resorption of delays in the production of management accounts and regulations laws; Establishment of a monitoring committee and a revenue expenditure monitoring committee, which meets every week and a (5%) emergency reserve to ease the implementation of the budget Private sector development thorough diagnosis of the electricity sector and establishing an emergency plan called "Plan TAKKAL" the for the recovery and restructuring over the period; Adoption of an action plan for the sector based on the recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (PESF); Creation in the courts of specialized in dealing with commercial cases; significant progress in the computerization of procedures; etc.

11 - A strong economy that could withstand the International economic and financial crisis - Strong growth in per capita income in dollars(doubling between 2000 and 2007) 11 Average growth of 6.6% over the last ten years Average growth of 4% over the last ten years Nominal GDP in billion FCFA ,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% Growth rate of real GDP 6,7% 5,9% 5,6% 4,9% 4,6% 3,2% 3,2% 2,5% 0,7% 4,2% 2,2% Nominal GDP per capita in thousands of FCFA GDP per capita in U.S. dollars

12 A Traditionally low inflation, even if high levels were recorded in 2007 and 2008, following the rising of oil and food costs. 12 Inflation has averaged 2% over the period. 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% -2,0% Inflation measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (IHPC) 1,7% 2,1% 3,0% 2,3% 0,7% 0,5% 5,9% 5,8% 1,2% ,9% 2010 Structure of the consumption basket of households Other Restaurants and hotels Transportation Clothing and footwear Housing, water, gas, electricity and other Food and soft drinks 6,2% 8,3% 9,7% 15,2% 27,7% 32,9% After relaxing in 2009, oil prices are now heading back to high levels Evolution of rice prices 110,7% 23,2% 11,1% 17,1%5,5% 4,0% 9,5% -15,2% -15,8% -11,7% ,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 Oil prices in U.S. dollars 97,0 64,3 71,1 79,0 61,8 53,4 28,2 24,3 25,0 28,9 37,

13 A sustained growth of budget revenues and prudent management of public spending 13 A good collection of budget revenue with a revenue / GDP ratio above the community floor set at 17%. 25,0% 2 15,0% 1 5,0% Budget revenue as % of GDP 16,9% 17,9% 18,1% 18,3% 19,2% 19,7% 20,3% 19,4% 18,6% 19,6% The large share of domestic financing (over 50%) reflects the government's willingness to support its investment program on its own. A substantial mobilization of donations over the period with an average of 2.5% of GDP against 1.7% over the period. 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% Donations as % of GDP 1,7% 1,7% 1,9% 2,1% 1,6% 1,5% 2,4% 2,3% 3,0% 2,5% Compared to 2001, capital expenditure as % of GDP almost doubled in 2010 while the current expenditure as % of GDP remained virtually unchanged Capital expenditure by financing 42,5% 46,4% 43,8% 46,1% 36,9% 29,0% 35,9% 47,2% 39,1% 40,7% 57,5% 53,6% 56,2% 53,9% 63,1% 71,0% 64,1% 52,8% 60,9% 59,3% ,0% 16,0% 14,0% 12,0% 1 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% Current expenditures as % of GDP 14,4% 12,9% 13,3% 13,1% 13,7% 6,5% 7,4% 8,5% Capital expenditures as % of GDP 16,9% 16,0% 16,4%16,6% 15,5% 9,7% 9,9% 9,7% 10,5% 110,1% 11,6% Domestically financed Foreign-financed

14 Pursuing a prudent policy, in terms of public finances, to bring the fiscal deficit below 4%of GDPinthemediumterm 14 Deterioration in the budget balance between 2008 and 2011 reflecting the inclusion of important fiscal measures to mitigate the impact of soaring prices of oil and food on the well-being of populations, Temporary increase in the deficit in 2011 to take into account the investment needs from the energy sector (Plan TAKKAL) and investment in infrastructure(extension of the toll road) The deficit is projected to fall below 4% by The Government seeks more domestic market (sub-regional UEMOA) to finance the public deficit. 1,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% -5,0% -6,0% -7,0% -8,0% 0,3% -2,4% Budget balance as % of GDP ,3% -3,1% -3,0% -3,5% -4,6% -4,9% -5,2% -5,7% -6,9% -3,7% -4,7% -4,5% -5,6% 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0-50,0-100, External financing in billion FCFA Domestic financing in billion FCFA

15 15 Significant decline in the debt ratio, thanks to the reaching of the completion point under the IHPC initiative in 2004 and the implementation of the IADM in Stock of public debt has increased after 2006 but remains below 40% of GDP, significantly below the convergence criteria of the UEMOA set at 70%. Public debt Outstanding debt as % of GDP 66,0% 54,7% 47,5% 45,8% 34,6% 35,9% 20,7% 23,8% 25,0% ,3% 3,9% 3,6% 3,4% 7,6% 8,4% 61,7% 50,8% 43,9% 42,3% 3,0% 5,9% 5,3% 17,7% 17,9% 19,7% 27,0% 27,5% Domestic debt as % of GDP External debt as % of GDP

16 continues to display a low risk of debt distress country profile. The Government is determined to continue its policy of borrowing to maintain healthy sustainability of public debt. 16 Ratios Normes Sustainability ratios PV/GDP 40% Analysis of public debt Sustainability PV/XBS 150% Liquidity ratios TSD/REV 30% 16,5 7,2 7,5 6,1 6,3 6,0 20,8 3,9 Note: PV = Present Value XBS= Exports of goods and services REV= Revenue Budget Debt ratios Debt/GDP 70% 39,5 39,2 38,9 38,7 37,4 37,7 37,0 37,0

17 17 The portfolio of external public debt is very diverse. Public external debt is denominated mostly in SDR (53%) U.S. dollar (14%) and Euro (12%). The World Bank, through its IDA window, remains the largest s donor. The average interest rate stood at 1.2% in 2010 and the average maturity at 30.2 years. External debt 3% 3% 1% 4% 10% 12% Composition of external public debt in foreign currency 14% 0 53% DTS U.S. dollar EURO Kuwaiti Dinar Yuan Saudi Arabian Riyal CFA 13% Credit allocation by multilateral donors 1% 49% IDA 8% 12% IMF OPEC/BADEA/BID ADB/ADF EIB/EDF 17% OTHER 0 Credit allocation by bilateral donors 25,0% External debt service as % of exports of goods and services External debt service as % of budget revenue 21% 36% OECD Countries 2 15,0% Arab Countries 1 0 OTHER 5,0% 43%

18 18 Emissions of government securities increasingly important since the abolition of the statutory Central Bank s advances in 2001 Domestic debt consists mainly of Treasury bonds(53%) and Treasury Bills(36.3%) Domestic debt Structure of domestic public debt in 2010 Average maturity expressed in years 12 3,8% ,0% Found statutory ,0% 36,3% Bank loans 4 Treasury bills 2 1 1,3 Treasury bonds ,3 1, Treasury bills by auction Treasury bonds Changes in interest rates Services of domestic debt in billions of FCFA 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% Treasury bills by auction Treasury bonds ,4 290, ,

19 19 Deteriorating current account in relation to the evolution of the international environment, particularly changes in oil and rice and the decline in remittances from emigrants in. Noted significant improvement since 2009 as a result of the relaxation on the prices of energy and food but also increase local production of rice, causing a sharp drop in rice imports by volume. -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% -1-12,0% -14,0% -16,0% Current account balance as % of GDP ,0% -6,4% -6,4% -6,0% -7,8% -7,6% -9,2% -6,7% -5,9% -11,6% -14,2% 1500, ,00 500,00 0,00 Remittances from ese workers (in millions of U.S. dollars) Foreign Direct Investment 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% Official aid as % of GDP 6,8% 6,2% 5,1% 5,4% 4,7% 5,0% 5,6% 7,0% 6,1% 5,6% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 3,0% 2,6% 2,3% 1,6% ,0 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0, Stock of FDIs in billions of FCFA Net FDI as % of GDP

20 Exports diversified both in terms of products and trading partners 20 Petroleum products continue to lead in major exports before fish products 4 35,0% 3 25,0% 2 15,0% 1 5,0% 34,5% 28,5% 21,3% 21,5% 16,0% 15,9% 9,6% 9,2% 6,3% 9,8% 6,2% 8,0% 2,1% 2,8% 1,5% 1,5% 0,6% 1,0% 1,0% 0,9% 0,6% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% est. Geographicalorientation of exports of goods 60,00% 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% Europe Africa America Asia Other 35,0% 3 25,0% 2 15,0% 1 5,0% Exports of goods and services as % of GDP

21 ese imports dominated by petroleum products, rice and capital goods 21 Imports of petroleum products, rice, and capital goods accounted for more than half (51.7%) of total imports in However, rice imports have registered sharp decline from 600 million USD in 2008 to USD 260 million in 2010, a saving of over 300 million due to increased local production resulting from the implementation of the great offensive for agriculture and Abundance GOANA). 45,0% 4 35,0% 3 25,0% 2 15,0% 1 5,0% 42,1% 39,4% 23,1% 21,2% 18,7% 24,4% 7,7% 6,1% ,0% 4,6% 3,0% 2,9% 1,4% 1,4% Geographical orientation of imports of goods 48,30% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 23,16% 17,99% 20,00% 9,57% 10,00% 0,98% 0,00% Europe Africa America Asia Other Imports of goods and services as % of GDP 52,8% 47,8% 37,2% 37,8% 39,0% 38,7% 39,8% 42,4% 43,1% 43,1% 39,9%

22 A prudent monetary and credit policy favoring a sound financing of economic activity 22 Net coverage of imports of goods, in months Credit to the economy as % of GDP 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0-27,0% 26,0% 25,0% 24,0% 23,0% 23,2% 22,7% 22,7% 24,2% 24,8% 25,8% 22,0% 21,0% UEMOA Broad money in billions of FCFA Currency outside banks The service sector remains the largest recipient of bank loans with a share of over 60% in Other services Trade Construction Industry Primary

23 Systemic risk limited by the strong capital of credit institutions 23 Banking jobs in 2008 and 2009 (in billion FCFA) Bank resources in 2008 and 2009 (in billion FCFA) Treasury and interbank Other uses Customer credits Treasury and interbank Other resources Net capital stock Deposits and borrowings Risk coverage by equity Evolution of the rates of degradation Evolution of the Cooke ratio 25,0% 2 15,0% 1 5,0% 12,0% 3,3% 16,8% 17,0% 17,4% 18,7% 20,1% 8,8% 8,7% 9,3% 9,7% 9,0% ,0% 1 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 9,9% 9,7% 10,3% 7,8% 7,7% 7,6% 8,3% 8,3% 9,1% Net non-performing loans as % of total loans Gross non-performing loans as % of total loans

24 The government has committed in the medium term: (i) raise the growth rate above 5%, (ii) reduce the public deficit below 4%, (iii) reduce the current account deficit and (iv) stabilize the debt ratio to below 40% of GDP. The strategy is based on a set of measures contained in the Economic and Financial Program (ISPE ), the Economic and Social Policy Document (DPES ) and the Accelerated Growth Strategy (SCA) ISPE The economic and financial program supported by the ISPE focuses on: i) pursue a prudent public finances and debt policy in order to preserve macroeconomic stability, ii) increase revenues to achieve a greater degree of operating budget to finance priority spending iii) further strengthening of public financial management and governance, and iv) promote private sector development in structural reforms, particularly in the areas of energy and finance, and other reforms related to business environment DPES The DPES ( ) details the policies that underpin the strategy of economic and social development of and includes macroeconomic goals and reforms envisaged under the ISPE. The Priority Action Plan of DPES retained the following key areas:(i) energy,(ii) road infrastructure within the country and in the corridors of regional integration, (iii) Agriculture and (iv) the social sectors(drinking water and sanitation, education, health). These sectors represent over 80% of the action plan SCA The Accelerated Growth Strategy(SCA) based on the identification of bunches of activities, services and expertise around product penetration of domestic markets (with the UEMOA) or external focused. Five (05) selected bunches are: Agriculture and Agro-Industry, Fisheries and Fishing Industry, Tourism - crafts and cultural industries, Textile - clothing and Teleservices.

25 Good macroeconomic performance and political stability, relatively high compared to other ECOWAS countries (1) 25 Average economic growth of 4% ( ) slightly below average in ECOWAS Average economic growth in ECOWAS from 2000 to 2010 Economic growth not much volatile Volatility of growth over the period ECOWAS average UEMOA average Ghana Côte d'ivoire 0,6% 4,4% 3,5% 5,5% 6,2% 8,7% ECOWAS average UEMOA average Ghana Côte d'ivoire 1,2 1,9 2,4 2,4 3,4 4,5 4,0% 1,8 Low inflation compared to its peers is a politically stable country, in terms of its relatively high note (World bank WDI rating) Average inflation in ECOWAS from 2000 to 2010 Rating of political stability (2009) ECOWAS average 6,3% 75,9 UEMOA average 2,7% 2,0% 12,5% Côte d'ivoire 8 4,2 Ghana Côte d'ivoire 2,6% 2,0% 17,7% Ghana 38,7 50

26 Good macroeconomic performance and political stability, relatively high compared to other ECOWAS countries (2) 26 Fiscal balance excluding grants equal to the EU average in ECOWAS and below that in the WAEMU Overall fiscal balance excluding grants (average ) Côte d'ivoire Ghana UEMOA average ECOWAS average -11,4% -8,7% -6,4% -6,6% -6,4% -2,3% 2,1% The relatively high current account deficit reflects surging international prices of food products in 2007 and 2008 Current account balance (average ) Côte d'ivoire Ghana UEMOA average ECOWAS average -11,5% -9,1% -8,1% -6,3% -7,3% 2,4% 13,2% A good level of revenue mobilization Budget revenues as % of GDP ( average) FDIs should be strengthened to increase production capacity of the ese economy Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP ( average) Côte d'ivoire 18,5% 24,8% 30,5% Côte d'ivoire 1,8% 3,6% 9,7% Ghana 12,9% Ghana 3,7% 19,3% 1,7% UEMOA average 15,9% UEMOA average 2,1% ECOWAS average 17,3% ECOWAS average 6,0%

27 Macroeconomic performance comparable to that of other African countries that have signed a ISPE program with the IMF (1) 27 Economic growth, low volatility compared to other African countries ISPE Average Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Mozambique Economic growth on average over the period 4,0% 6,2% 6,8% 7,2% 6,8% 7,6% 7,4% 8,7% Economic growth slightly below the average African ISPE Volatility of growth over the period Average 2,4 1,9 1,8 Uganda 1,8 Tanzania 0,8 Rwanda 3,1 Mozambique 2,6 4,5, beside of, has the lowest level of inflation in the African ISPE countries Average inflation over the period, in terms of its note, is politically more stable than, Uganda and Rwanda Rating of political stability (2009) Average Uganda Tanzania Rwanda 2,0% 2,0% 6,8% 6,5% 6,3% 7,6% 12,5% Uganda Mozambique Tanzania Rwanda 4,2 15,1 33,5 38,7 47,6 63,7 Mozambique 10,8% 75,9

28 Macroeconomic performance comparable to that of other countries Africans that have signed a ISPE program with the IMF (2) 28 On average over the period, has the lowest budget deficit excluding grants among the African ISPE countries. The relatively high current account deficit reflects surging international food pricesin2007and2008. Average Uganda Mozambique Tanzania Rwanda Overall fiscal blance excluding grants ( average) -12,0% -11,4% -9,4% -10,8% -7,8% -6,8% -6,4% In terms of mobilization of fiscal revenue, is above the average for ISPE countries. Budget revenues as % of GDP ( average) Average Uganda Mozambique Cape verde Tanzania Rwanda 12,3% 13,9% 12,8% 15,8% 18,5% 19,3% 24,8% 2,1% 30,5% Average Uganda Mozambique Tanzania Rwanda Current account balance ( average) -11,1% -11,5% -7,7% -9,1% -4,8% -3,9% should mobilize more FDI. Mozambique -3,4% Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP ( average) Average Uganda Tanzania Rwanda 1,1% 1,7% 2,9% 3,6% 4,1% 4,7% 5,1% 9,7% 13,2%

29 In the Doing Business June 2010 ranking, has positioned 7 th over 15 countries of the ECOWAS 29 Doing business ranking Togo 160 Sierra Leone Niger 173 DoingBusiness June2010 ranking Mali Liberia Guinea-Bissau Guinea Ghana 67 Gambia 146 Côte d'ivoire Burkina Faso 151 Benin