WEST AFRICA: ECONOMIC OVERVIEW BY PROFESSOR AKPAN H. EKPO

Transcription

1 WEST AFRICA: ECONOMIC OVERVIEW BY PROFESSOR AKPAN H. EKPO Presented at the SWIFT BUSINESS FORUM WEST AFRICA 2016, EKO HOTEL, LAGOS, NOVEMBER 8, Professor of Economics and Director General, West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), Lagos. web: The usual disclaimer applies.

2 OUTLINE Introduction, background and Motivation Performance of the West African Economy Empirics and Going Forward Challenges and Prospects Conclusion

3 INTRODUCTION No modern economy has developed without growing. The drivers of growth may generally be similar in certain aspects but must be adapted to fit the realities of a particular economy. Economies like Britain experienced growth through industrialization engineered by technical progress (technology) with human labour. China is being modernized through technology not necessarily discovered within the country. Some economies stole technology in order to industrialize and modernize. Most, if not all of the countries in West Africa were at the same level of development with those in Asia in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s: Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d Ivoire, Senegal had similar growth rates with Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan.

4 The countries in West Africa have enormous human and natural resources and at each episode growth has been driven by the rise in the prices of commodity exports. The sub-region experienced growth rates averaging about 7 percent in the last 10 years yet development has not taken place. Most of the economies are experiencing high rates of unemployment, declining productivity as well as rising inflation. Despite the formulation and implementation of reforms, the incidence of poverty continues to rise; there exist wide income inequality. The creation of ECOWAS in 1975 to enhance trade, growth and development through regional economic integration is yet to reverse the dismal performance of most of the economies over-time. Nonetheless, the region has enormous opportunities which if properly utilized would positively change the socio-economic landscape and improve the living standards of the citizens.

5 The drive towards economic integration has posed challenges; after 40 years of existence ECOWAS has moved to adopt a single track approach towards integration by the year The West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) comprising The Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra-Leone, Liberia and Guinea was established in the year 2000 to fast-track the integration process. The countries were meant to satisfy both primary and secondary criteria towards currency convergence with the eventual convergence with the CFA of the Franco-phone countries. The process is still on-going. In the last 3 years countries in the sub-region have been experiencing economic downturn due to the fall in the prices of export commodities. A country like Nigeria is in a recession. The signs of an impending economic slump were visible particularly with the ebola epidemic. This review would allow us to make suggestions on how best to not just macromanage the economies in the region but also proffer solutions that would reduce dependence on commodity exports.

6 PERFORMANCE OF THE WEST AFRICAN ECONOMY Table 1:Real Output Growth for West Africa (%) Real GDP Growth % * 2014** 2015 Africa West Africa Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cote d Ivoire Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo

7 Tables 1-3 below summarize the growth trajectories of ECOWAS countries for the period The economies grew by almost 7% during the period. These rates are higher than that of Africa for the same period. During the period of the global economic downturn, almost all the countries had on the average positive growth rates except for Niger and Cote d Ivoire which had negative grates of -4.7% in 2011 and -0.9% in It should be noted that these growth rates were driven by high mineral and commodity prices. In 2015, Sierra-Leone which registered the highest growth rate of 19.7% during the period had a negative growth of 21%. This was due to the collapse of the mining sector because of the ebola epidemic which resulted in the closure of the sub-sector.

8 In terms of real GDP per capita, almost all the countries indicated high growth rates than that of the growth of population. The real GDP per capita for Sierra-Leone stood at 3.4% in 2005 and rose sharply to 17.8% in Table 4 indicates that all the economies experienced macroeconomic stability using the rate of inflation as a proxy. Almost all countries had single-digit rates of inflation. It reflects efforts by these countries to better manage their economies. The fiscal side in these economies presents a different picture; the countries had twin deficits challenges.

9 Inflation and Real GDP growth in the WAMZ Countries Percent (%) Inflation and Real GDP growth rate (in percent) GDP Growth Inflation

10 Table 2: Real Output Growth and Per capita Growth for West Africa, (%) Country Benin 4.9 (1.9) 2.9 (-0.4) 5.4 (2.7) 5.0 (2.3) Burkina Faso 1.3 (-1.6) 8.7 (5.7) 9.0 (6.1) 6.9 (4.1) Cabo Verde 16.6 (14.7) 6.5 (5.5) 2.5 (1.7) 1.0 (0.1) Cote d Ivoire -2.5 (-4.6) 1.8 (0.4) 9.8 (7.5) 8.8 (6.4) Gambia (-30.2) -0.9 (-4.1) 6.1 (2.9) 5.6 (2.4) Ghana 3.8 (1.4) 5.9 (3.3) 7.9 (5.8) 4.4 (2.3) Guinea -5.6 (-7.3) 3.0 (0.9) 3.9 (1.3) 2.0 (-0.5) Guinea Bisau (-38.0) 4.3 (2.1) -1.5 (-3.9) 0.3 (-2.1) Liberia 55.1 (49.8) 5.9 (3.2) 8.3 (5.6) 8.1 (5.6) Mali -4.7 (-7.5) 6.1 (3.0) -1.2 (-4.2) 5.0 (2.0) Niger -2.9 (-6.5) 7.2 (3.5) 11.1 (7.3) 3.6 (-0.3) Nigeria 6.3 (3.8) 6.5 (3.9) 6.7 (3.7) 7.4 (3.4) Senegal 3.0 (0.5) 5.6 (2.9) 3.4 (0.5) 4.0 (1.1) Sierra Leone (26.0) 7.3 (3.4) 19.7 (17.8) 13.0 (11.1) Togo -1.7 (-4.3) 1.2 (-1.4) 5.9 (3.3) 5.6 (3.1)

11 Table 3: Rate of Inflation in Selected West African Countries, (5) Country Cabo Verde The Gambia Ghana Guinea Liberia Nigeria Sierra Leone Benin Burkina Faso Cote d Ivoire Guinea-Bissau Mali Niger Senegal Togo

12 Table 4: Fiscal Balance including grants (% of GDP), Country Benin -1.7 (-44) (-6.2) -1.3 (-8.5) -1.2 (-8.2) Burkina Faso -3.8 (-13.2) -5.1 (-11.5) -3.1 (-0.8) -3.2 (-0.7) Cabo Verde -7.4 (-10.9) -3.6 (-4.1) -9.8 (-11.7) -7.9 (-5.7) Cote d Ivoire -1.2 (-2.8) -0.8 (0.2) -2.6 (-3.8) -2.0 (-6.4) Gambia -0.7 (-5.7) -7.2 (-11.2) -4.4 (-16.4) (-16.0) Ghana -5.3 (-6.6) -1.2 (-6.2) -5.8 (-12.4) -7.8 (-12.3) Guinea -3.4 (-5.6) (-5.4) -3.2 (-33.9) -5.2 (-20.2) Guinea Bisau - (8.8) -5.9 (-1.8) -2.7 (-9.5) -4.7 (-6.6) Liberia 0.3 (-16.0) 0.6 (-23.3) -2.3 (-33.9) -2.6 (-48.0) Mali -3.0 (-9.6) -4.7 (-10.1) -1.3 (-3.0) 2.5 (-9.8) Niger -3.8 (-6.7) -2.1 (-9.2) -1.1 (-15.1) 0.1 (-15.2) Nigeria 5.9 (12.5) -1.2 (25.3) -1.4 (4.9) -1.8 (8.2) Senegal 0.5 ( (-7.8) -5.9 (-10.3) -5.4 (-9.0) Sierra Leone -9.3 (-6.5) -1.3 (5.8) -1.4 (5.6) 00 (-2.1) Togo -4.7 (-6.2) -2.4 (-21.8) -5.8 (-11.9) -4.6 (-11.7) Source ADB, Tunisia Notes: Current Account /GDP (%) are in parenthesis

13 Tables 5 and 6 for the WAMZ countries as a group show that inflation was at 10.5% in 2015 which within the benchmark Countries are not addressing the huge infrastructure deficit as reflected by the small percentage spent on captal projects. Only 18% of expenditure went to capital projects. Data also show that there is no financial deepening in the zone. Credit to the private sector showed a negative growth of 18.1% in Though the banking and financial system appear safe, some countries still had challenges with non-performing loans.

14 Table 5: WAMZ Macroeconomic Indicators Annex 1: WAMZ (Zone-Wide): Selected Macroeconomic Indicato Output and prices Real GDP growth (%) Nominal GDP ($mil) 409, , , , , ,500.2 Inflation Rate (end of Period) Money and credit Money Supply (M2+) growth (% change) Velocity (Nom. GDP/M2+) External sector Gross International Reserves ($mil) 38, , , , , ,370.2 Gross International Reserves (in months of import) Governments Fiscal operations Tax Revenue ( % of GDP) Salary mass/total tax revenue Public Investments from domestic receipts Captital Expenditures / Total Expenditures Expenditure (% of GDP) Fiscal Deficit includ. Grants ( % of GDP)** Fiscal Deficit excl.grants ( % of GDP)** Source: WAMZ Authorities and WAMI Staff (**) (+) means deficit and (-)means surplus (**) (+) means deficit and (-)means surplus

15 Table 6: WAMZ Indicative Monetary Survey Annex 3: Indicative WAMZ - Monetary Survey (in US$ millions, end-period) Net Foreign Assets 48, , , , , ,925.8 Net Domestic Assets 38, , , , , ,617.6 Net Deposits or Claims on Government -2, , , , , ,858.0 of which Central Bank -16, , , , , ,420.8 Claims on the Rest of the Economy 72, , , , , ,759.7 Other Items (net) -30, , , , ,968.2 Money Supply (M2+) 86, , , , , ,136.1 Money Supply (M1) 41, , , , , ,697.5 Currency with the public 8, , , , , ,688.5 Demand deposits 33, , , , , ,009.1 Quasi-Money (includ. Foreign Cur.) 45, , , , , ,438.6 Memorandum items: Broad money growth (%) Change in claims on gov (%) Currency/M2+ratio (%) Private Sector Credit Growth (%) Velocity (Nom. GDP/M2+) Annual Nominal GDP (in US$ Mils) 409, , , , , ,500.2 Source: WAMZ Authorities & WAMI Staff

16 Figure 1: ECOWAS and Africa Real GDP Growth Rates

17 EMPIRICS Some scholars and other pundits have argued that economies in the sub-region must diversify their economies away from dependence on mineral and commodity exports without adding value. We thus ascertain the link between diversification with private sector development as the major determinant: DIV = f(pri, Xi) (1) Where: DIV=diversification index; Pri=private sector development and Xi=a set of control variables. Table below shows index of diversification for ECOWAS countries.

18 DIVERSIFICATION INDEX FOR ECOWAS Table 2: Diversification Index for ECOWAS Countries and Africa, Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cote d'ivoire Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo Africa Source: African Economic Outlook, 2012

19 Only Cape Verde and Senegal portray evidence of high diversification in comparative terms. Nigeria, a key economy in the region is one of the least diversified. She depends heavily on the export of a single commodity which is crude petroleum. Panel regression results are shown below:

20 Table 4: Empirical Results Dependent Variable: Economic Diversification Explanatory Variable Coefficient t-statistics P-values Constant Private sector investment * Conflict GDP per capita Growth rate GDP per capita Growth rate * Infrastructure Trade openness ** Public Investment * Adjusted R-squared = 0.26 F-statistics = 3.18 Prob(F-statistic) = N = 45 DW =1.76 Note: * and ** indicate significant at 10% and 5%, respectively Source: Computed by the Authors using Eviews 7.

21 The private sector development is positive and statistically significant at the 10% level; when private sector development rises by 10%, index of economic diversification rises by 3.3units. The effect of infrastructure is negative confirming the infrastructure deficit in the region; improvement in infrastructure would boost private sector development and economic diversification. The public investment variable is positive and statistically significant confirming the role of the state at this level of development in the sub-region; if nothing else the public sector can provide the enabling environment.

22 Trade variable is positive and significant at the 5% level reflecting the importance of trade in enhancing and creating opportunities for economic diversification. The sign of the conflict variable is contrary to theory; conflict should be negatively related to economic diversification.

23 CHALLENGES Sharp decline in international commodity prices resulting in declining revenues and foreign exchange earnings Member countries are susceptible to volatilities in the prices of primary commodities and global financial developments. They have no control over the prices and sometimes the output of these commodities. Huge hard and soft infrastructure gaps, particularly in the energy and transport sectors; Excessive recurrent expenditure; not much is left for capital projects Increasing level of public debt;

24 High cost of credit; lending rates are very high discouraging investment Cost of credit remained relatively high in most of the countries due to the high domestic borrowing by government with the attendant crowding out of the private sector. This reflected in the decline in the growth of total assets as well as net loans and advances in the banking system (WAMI). High non-performing loans (NPLs); The weak quality of bank assets due to the high NPLs could undermine the solvency of banks and affect profitability. Volume of trade among members is low; only Nigeria and The Gambia are implementing the Common External Tariff (CET). Harmonization of indirect taxes.

25 CONCLUSION We have tried to present a review of the economy of the sub-region All the economies are experiencing hard times due mainly to declining export commodity prices and governance issues. We have not addressed the governance issue as well as concrete challenges facing monetary integration Notwithstanding, the sub-region has potentials. Let have useful conversation