Wakefield. State of the district report

Transcription

1 Wakefield State of the district report May 2017

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3 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION KEY POINTS CARING FOR OUR PEOPLE MAKING SURE ADULTS WITH VULNERABILITIES ARE SUPPORTED AND SAFE... 6 Expenditure on Supporting People... 6 State Benefits for Sick and Disabled People... 6 Homelessness... 7 Support for Older People... 7 Fuel Poverty... 8 Aspects of Welfare Reform MAKING OUR COMMUNITIES SAFER... 9 Crime... 9 Domestic Abuse Anti Social Behaviour Hate Crime SUPPORTING PEOPLE TO BE HEALTHY Lifestyles Respiratory Disease Cancer Mental Health Life Expectancy Participation in Sport and Exercise SUPPORTING PEOPLE TO BE READY FOR WORK Employment and Unemployment Rates Worklessness Benefits Jobseeking Benefits THE POPULATION AS A WHOLE Population Size and Age Profile Ethnicity and Language Population Change Population Projections CARING FOR OUR PLACES SUPPORTING PEOPLE TO GET HIGHER SKILLS Population Education and Skills Profile Apprenticeships Higher Education Occupations MAKING THE ECONOMY STRONGER Structure of the Economy

4 Economic Performance CULTURE AND SPORT Cultural Attractions and Tourism Libraries IMPROVING THE PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Transport Housing Stock Housing Sales New Homes Housing Market MAKING SURE ALL COMMUNITIES BENEFIT FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH Index of Multiple Deprivation Earnings and Income ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE Waste and Recycling Emissions Energy-Efficient Homes Air Quality AMBITIOUS FOR OUR YOUNG PEOPLE MAKING SURE ALL CHILDREN ARE SUPPORTED AND SAFE Families and Children Child Poverty Direct Influences on Families Resources Today SUPPORTING ALL CHILDREN TO ACHIEVE THEIR POTENTIAL Early Years and Foundation Stage Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 (GCSE) A Levels and Further Education Attainment Gaps Not in Education, employment or Training (NEET) MAKING SURE ALL CHILDREN HAVE THE BEST POSSIBLE START IN LIFE Maternal Health Young People s Health MODERN PUBLIC SERVICES SUPPORTING OUR COMMUNITIES TO BE STRONGER Self-Directed Support Voluntary and Community Sector HELPING PEOPLE RECEIVE CARE CLOSER TO THEIR HOME Carers and Caring Transfers of Care INFORMATION SOURCES Version: 2017 June v4 3

5 1 INTRODUCTION Welcome to the tenth edition of Wakefield s State of the District report. The report is structured around the District Outcomes Framework, focusing on the four key priorities of the Local Services Board, which are as follows: Caring for Our People By working with our partners we will, make sure vulnerable adults are supported and safe make our communities safer support people to be healthy support people to be ready for work Caring for Our Places By working with our partners we will, Support people to get more skills Make the local economy stronger Improve transport links and access to high speed broadband Make sure all our communities benefit from economic growth Ambitious for Our Young People By working with our partners we will, make sure all children are supported and safe support all children to achieve their potential make sure all children have the best possible start in life Modern Public Services By working with our partners we will, Support our communities to be stronger Help people receive care services closer to their homes Work together better and deliver more joined up services The report provides an update on the latest social, economic, health and wellbeing trends across the Wakefield district. With other local information, the report is designed to support and inform the Wakefield Together Partnership in local decision-making and provide information to support stakeholder with their business. The report contains important facts and figures about the conditions and circumstances affecting people s lives in the district in Spring Also covered is information on how the demographics of Wakefield are changing and the extent to which people are healthy, safe, financially secure and satisfied with their local environment, especially during a period of major reductions in public spending and recovery from a major economic downturn. It also highlights inequalities that exist within the district. For more information please contact: Corporate Performance and Intelligence Wakefield Council Town Hall Wood Street Wakefield WF1 2HQ intelligence@wakefield.gov.uk 4

6 2 KEY POINTS The value of all social security benefits was around 1,152 million in 2015/16. Rates of homelessness remain significantly lower than the England average, but the number of working people claiming Housing Benefit has almost doubled in the last five years and changes to the benefit cap in November have pushed up the number of households affected significantly. The unemployment rate in the Wakefield District is currently only slightly higher than the Leeds City Region and England averages. However, Wakefield s Employment and Support Allowance (a sickness benefit) claiming rate is the fourth-highest in the region. The number of claimants has fallen over the last decade, but gaps to regional and national averages remain significant. Reductions in smoking levels should lead to better health, but data from 2015 show that 22% of adults in Wakefield smoke, significantly higher than the England average. Levels of physical activity among adults have also improved and are now similar to the England average. The overall crime rate in the Wakefield District is currently around 30% higher than the England and Wales average. There were 542 hate incidents reported to the police in There was a noticeable increase in racial hate incidents around the time of the Brexit vote. The number of incidents of domestic abuse being recorded has increased significantly in recent years, although the incident rate is very similar to the West Yorkshire average. The proportion of the population with Level 4 skills has increased over the past decade, but across the Leeds City Region and England it has increased faster. Numbers of local people studying in higher education in the UK had been increasing gradually, dipped when higher tuition fees were introduced, the increased again in academic year 2015/16. On the skills demand side, compared to the Leeds City Region, the District s economy has lower proportions of professional and managerial jobs and higher proportions of elementary and process/plant machine operative jobs. Growth in the local economy in GVA terms had been higher than the Yorkshire and Humber region average in recent years, but has fallen back again recently. The number of business in the District, however, has grown faster than the LCR average. The earnings gap between Wakefield residents and the England average has narrowed slightly over the past few years, but for jobs at workplaces in the District the gap with the Leeds City Region and England has widened as local pay growth has stagnated. The district s 2015 multiple deprivation profile is shaped by high levels of education and skills deprivation, and relative to England this situation has remained unchanged from Even at the Foundation Stage, there are marked differences in achievement for children from poorer backgrounds. In 2016, 68% of children not eligible for free school meals (FSM) achieved a good level of development at this stage, but only 47% of pupils known to be eligible for FSM achieved this standard (1). There is a similar gap across England as a whole, but the gap nationally is narrowing faster than the gap in Wakefield. Similar gaps exist at all the key stages in a young person s education, with the largest gap occurring when young people have reached 18 or 19 and are taking up higher education (HE). Last year, 19% of pregnant women from the district were smoking at the time of delivery compared to 11% across England, and in 2014/15, only 64% of mothers were initiating breastfeeding at birth. At the year-end 31 March 2016, 71% of adult social care users were receiving self-directed support. This proportion is the second lowest of the 36 English metropolitan boroughs. Wakefield is performing significantly better than the England average for the number of delayed transfers of care which are attributable to adult social care, and the overall measure of delayed transfers of care is also improving. 5

7 3 CARING FOR OUR PEOPLE 3.1 MAKING SURE ADULTS WITH VULNERABILITIES ARE SUPPORTED AND SAFE Expenditure on Supporting People Social protection encompasses the help provided to those in need or at risk of hardship through the provision of financial assistance and services. Central government departments are responsible for administering the majority of social security benefits. These include payments relating to unemployment, disability allowances, state retirement pension and pension credit. The value of all benefits was around 1,152 million in 2015/16 (2). The State Pension is the single largest item of expenditure, followed by Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit (Figure 1). State Pension *Working and Child Tax Credit Housing Benefit Disability Living Allowance Employment and Support Allowance *Child Benefit Pension Credit Attendance Allowance Council Tax Support Carer's Allowance Jobseeker's Allowance Income Support Winter Fuel Payments * estimated values million Figure 1 Principal social security benefits expenditure in Wakefield, 2015/16. State Benefits for Sick and Disabled People Sick and disabled people, depending on the nature and severity of their condition, are entitled to a number of financial benefits. Employment Support Allowance (ESA) (and its predecessor Incapacity Benefit (IB) and Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA) are benefits for people of working age. In Wakefield, latest data shows 17,170 people (August 2016) are claiming IB/ESA. Around 2,700 of these claimants are in the work-related activity group - attending regular interviews with an advisor to help with job goals and improving skills. It is this group which is closest to the labour market. Wakefield s ESA claiming rate is the fourth-highest in the region. The number of claimants has fallen over the last decade, and gaps to regional and national averages have narrowed slowly. However, this gap remains significant. State pension age (SPA) increases for women is the main reason the ESA trend in Wakefield has stopped falling in the last couple of years. Women are working longer and so more are eligible to claim around 900 women aged over 60 are now claiming IB/ESA. 6

8 The health conditions affecting Wakefield claimants closely follow the national pattern. Of the principal conditions: 45% have mental or behavioural conditions (and these numbers are increasing), and 16% have musculoskeletal conditions (these numbers are decreasing). Disability Living Allowance (DLA) is a benefit for people who are disabled, have personal care needs, mobility needs, or both. Attendance Allowance is paid to people who are ill or disabled after their 65 th birthday and who need someone to help with their personal care. In August 2016, 21,470 people were claiming DLA 6.4% of the Wakefield s population, compared to 4.1% across England. The proportion of people aged 65 and over claiming Attendance Allowance (11.4%, 7,059 people, August 2016) is slightly lower than the England rate (12.6%). From April 2013 DLA began to be replaced by Personal Independence Payment (PIP). As of October 2016, just over 6,800 people across the district had registered for PIP (3). Homelessness The homelessness rate remains significantly lower than the England average (Figure 2). In 2015/16, 212 households were accepted as being homeless and in priority need, up from 181 in 2014/15 (4). Support for Older People Much of central government expenditure on social protection for older people is through the payment of the state retirement pension. Nearly everyone of state pension age receives this pension, whatever their level of income. Some also receive income-related benefits such as Pension Credit and Council Tax Support. In Wakefield district, 17.5% of people of state retirement age receive Pension Credit, similar to the proportion across England as a whole (16.7%). The number of people claiming Pension Credit has fallen in recently years as the state retirement age for women has increased. The social care of older people may involve admissions for hospital care, home care service, or a move into residential care (possibly with nursing care). For older people that need hospital treatment, there is a focus to ensure that they are adequately supported at home during their convalescence. For the 3 months to 31 December 2016, 86.6% of older people were still at home 91 days after hospital discharge into reablement/rehabilitation services. In 2016, 456 people aged 65 or over were permanently admitted to residential care with the help of the local authority (including self-funders). Over the last 20 years, however, although the older population has increased, the proportion who are living in residential care has decreased (Table 1). number per 1,000 households Figure 2 Households being accepted as homeless and in priority need. total population % in care home year ,657 3, % 17.7% ,632 5, % 14.6% ,142 6, % 13.0% Table 1 People living in residential care homes (2011 Census) / / / / / /14 England 2014/ /16 7

9 Fuel Poverty The latest data show fuel poverty has increased. In 2014, 14,600 households in the district (10.2%) had required fuel costs that were above average and which, if spent, would leave the household with an income below the official poverty line. Across the region the rate is higher, at 11.8% (5). Aspects of Welfare Reform The removal of the spare room subsidy from Housing Benefit (HB) sometimes referred to as the bedroom tax is currently affecting around 4,300 people in the district (November 2016). The numbers affected have been falling slowly. Overall Housing Benefit (HB) claiming levels are also falling but the number of working people claiming HB has almost doubled in the last five years, with 4,650 claimants in July 2016 compared to 2,593 in This trend is also evident nationally with nearly one million people in work relying on HB - double the figure from five years ago. People claiming Housing Benefit needing more help with housing costs through the loss of spare room subsidy, for example may make a claim to the Council for a Discretionary Housing Payment (DHP). Before the removal of the spare room subsidy the annual amount of DHP awarded was around 275,300, but this amount has risen steeply since the subsidy was removed in April 2013 (Table 2). applications number awarded total amount awarded ( ) 2012/13 1, , /14 3,419 1, , /15 3,476 2, , /16 2,845 1, ,700 Table 2 Discretionary Housing Payments. In October 2016 there were 59 households affected by the overall Benefit Cap of 500 per week for couples and lone parents and 350 per week for single people without children. From 7 th November 2016 the cap has been lowered to per week for couples and lone parents, and per week for single people without children. The change has meant that in January 2017 the number of households affected by the benefit cap had risen to 322. Council Tax Benefit was replaced by Council Tax Support in April Local authorities are responsible for the design of some aspects of this new scheme (certain pensioner discounts are protected), and it has also been left to local authorities to decide how much of the 10% drop in Government grant for this benefit they protect from other budgets. Since Council Tax Support began the amount awarded to people pension age has fallen due to the phased increases in the state pension age for women and changes to eligibility criteria (Figure 3). The amount of Council Tax Support awarded to people of working age has fallen due to reduction in the size of discounts for some people, and because increasing employment levels are moving some people out of the benefit eligibility. 8

10 25 20 working age pension age million / / / /16 Figure 3 Value of Council Tax Support awarded in year to date. The responsibility for Local Welfare Provision was passed to Councils from the Department for Work and Pensions with effect from 1 April The Council received grant funding of 943k in each of the financial years 2013/14 and 2014/15. Councils will not receive any further specific grant funding for local welfare provision beyond 2014/15 and in future will have to support Local Welfare Provision within existing budgets and from earlier grant under-spend. In 2013/14, 262,000 of Local Welfare Provision (LWP) was awarded. The amount awarded increased to 389,000 in 2014/15 and 378,000 in 2015/16. Welfare provision can also be applied for by social workers where specific financial assistance is deemed the most appropriate means of safeguarding or promoting a child's welfare within their family. Known as Section 17 payments, 269,000 was given out in 2015/16, up from 227,000 in 2014/ MAKING OUR COMMUNITIES SAFER Crime The overall crime rate in the Wakefield District is currently around 30% higher than the England and Wales average (6). The number of crimes being recorded in the district has grown significantly over the past couple of years (Figure 4), as adherence to crime recording standards has been improved. The consequence is that comparisons with other areas should now be more accurate, notwithstanding that certain types of crime still tend to be under-reported. Typically, Wakefield s crime profile has been characterised by higher than average amounts of violent crime and lower than average amounts of acquisitive crime. 9 crimes per 1,000 population Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Sep-2010 Sep-2011 Sep-2012 Sep months to... Figure 4 All crime rate. Wakefield Levels of domestic burglary are low at the moment, but there have been increases in vehicle crime and shoplifting. There has been an increase in the number of violent crimes being recorded, but Wakefield s position within West Sep-2014 England and Wales Sep-2015 Sep-2016

11 Yorkshire has improved recently. Domestic abuse incidents have also risen, but the incident rate is very similar to the West Yorkshire average (Table 3). 3 months to Dec-2015 Dec-2016 West Yorkshire offences offences rate rate All recorded crime 6,709 7, Domestic burglary Burglary elsewhere Violence against the person - with injury Violence against the person - without injury 1,031 1, Theft from motor vehicles Theft of motor vehicles Shoplifting Criminal damage 1,015 1, Domestic abuse incidents 1,604 1, Table 3 Recorded crime and domestic abuse. Some parts of the District have more crime than other parts. In the second half 2016 the main serious acquisitive crime hotspots (Figure 5) were in Wakefield city centre (mixture of burglary and vehicle crime); Normanton centre (mainly theft from vehicles); Castleford centre (mainly nondomestic burglary); Glasshoughton (vehicle crime); Love Lane area, Pontefract (mixture of burglary and thefts from vehicles); Warwick estate and Simpsons Lane, Knottingley (mostly theft from vehicles). Figure 5 Serious acquisitive crime hotspots (burglary, theft of/from vehicle and robbery), July to December

12 Domestic Abuse The number of incidents of domestic abuse being recorded has increased significantly in recent years (Figure 6). The majority of the increase has been in standard (lower) risk incidents. The rising trend, in part, is due to national policies to ensure domestic abuse is being recorded properly, but a lot of local work has also been undertaken to encourage victims to come forward and report the incidents and crimes that have occurred against them. National evidence suggests only 21% of incidents are reported to the police by victims (7). In 2016, 22% of all violent crime in Wakefield District was domestic. If national under-reporting levels are representative of the situation locally, then around 7% of adults in the District are likely to have been a victim of domestic abuse in the year to July This level of prevalence is similar to that measured nationally in surveys (6.1% in 2015/16) (8). In 2016 in Wakefield, 77% of incidents involved a female victim, and 23% involved a male victim incidents standard medium high Figure 6 Incidents of domestic abuse, by risk assessment category (DASH). Anti Social Behaviour Between them, the Police, the Council and Wakefield and District Housing took around 27,500 calls regarding incidents of anti-social behaviour (ASB) during This represents an increase of 11% from Hate Crime There were 542 hate incidents reported to the police in 2016, with the majority being racial incidents (Table 4). There was a noticeable increase in racial hate incidents around the time of the Brexit vote and at that time the racially or religiously aggravated crime rate was significantly higher across Wakefield District than in similar districts elsewhere more than double the rate in Barnsley or Doncaster, for example. Number of incidents Incident type Racial Sexual Disability i t ti Faith Transgender Table 4 Hate incidents reported to the police. 11

13 3.3 SUPPORTING PEOPLE TO BE HEALTHY Lifestyles Data collected through the Active People Survey show 70.5% of adults are overweight or obese, compared 64.8% across England (9). Problems with being overweight or obese are more common among people in middle age and there is a strong correlation between obesity and deprivation (10). National data show that smoking prevalence has been in gradual decline over the last 15 years although the reductions have slowed in the last few years. Survey data from 2015 shows that 22% of adults in Wakefield smoke, compared to 17% across England as a whole. Smoking is more common among people in routine and manual occupations, 30% of whom smoke (9). In 2014/15, 4,389 hospital admissions in the district which were attributable to smoking. The rate of admissions per 100,000 population was 38% higher than the England average (11). Data for 2011/12 showed the cost of admissions attributable to smoking cost the NHS 8.7m. There were 1,800 deaths attributable to smoking over the three years 2012 to admissions per 100,000 population /07-08/ /08-09/ /09-10/ /10-11/ /11-12/ /12-13/ /13-14/15 Alcohol can also be an attributable factor in hospital admissions and deaths. In the threeyear period 2012 to 2014, 101 males and 38 females died as a result of alcohol-specific conditions mainly chronic liver disease (12). This Figure 7 Alcohol-specific hospital admissions, people aged under 18. rate of mortality amongst males is higher than the England average. Admissions to hospital for alcohol-specific conditions are higher than the England average for both males and females. The number of people aged under 18 being admitted to hospital for alcohol-specific conditions is also higher than average, but has been falling steadily over the past seven periods (Figure 7). Respiratory Disease Around 24,500 people across the district are currently known to suffer from asthma (2015/16). This is 6.7% of all patients on the District s GP registers, compared to 5.9% across England (13). During 2012/13, 508 patients were admitted to hospital as an emergency case, and the rate of admissions is 30% higher than the England average. The incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Wakefield is also significantly higher than the England average. COPD is the name for a collection of lung diseases including chronic bronchitis and emphysema. Smoking is the main cause of COPD. At least four out of five people who develop the disease are, or have been, smokers. Exposure to other people s smoke also increases the risk of COPD. Across the district, 2.9% of patients on GP registers (10,400 people) are suffering from COPD, compared to 1.9% across England (2015/16) (13). 12

14 Cancer Incidence of prostate, breast and colorectal cancer are not considered significantly different from the England average, but lung cancer incidence is significantly higher (Table 5) (14). Of the 328 newly diagnosed cases of lung cancer in 2014 in Wakefield, the split of males to females was roughly equal (15). Although incidence of lung cancer is high, the registration rate of newly diagnosed case has been falling (Figure 8). Only 35.2% of people diagnosed with lung cancer in the District in 2013 survived their disease for at least one year after diagnosis (followed up to 2014) (16). Cancer incidence rates (standardised rates per 100,000) Wakefield England 2014 Count Rate Rate Prostate Breast Lung Colorectal Table 5 Cancer incidence. registrations per 100,00 population Region England Figure 8 Lung cancer registrations. Mental Health Since 2011, the Office for National Statistics have asked personal well-being questions to adults in the UK, to better understand how they feel about their lives. People are asked to respond on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is not at all and 10 is completely. Last year there was an increase in satisfaction with life and a small reduction in levels of anxiety (17). Feelings of well-being in Wakefield are very similar to those across England as a whole (Table 6). Average response Wakefield England 2014/ / /16 How satisfied are you with your life nowadays? To what extent do you feel the things you do in your life are worthwhile? How happy did you feel yesterday? How anxious did you feel yesterday? Table 6 Feelings of well-being. 13

15 Within the ONS well-being survey, 20% of people from Wakefield District recorded a high anxiety score (6 to 10), and GP records showed there were 26,900 adults in Wakefield District (9.3%) who had an unresolved record of depression in their patient record (18). This is higher than the England average (8.3%). Emergency hospital admissions for intentional self-harm are also higher than average, although the 741 admissions in 2014/15 was 22% lower than the previous year. Levels of suicide are similar to the England average. Over the period 2013 to 2015, 55 males and 23 females committed suicide (19). Dementia is a condition that primarily affects people aged 65 and over, and in September 2015 there were 2,698 people aged 65+ with a recorded diagnosis of dementia, 4.1% of this population. This level of diagnosis is lower than the England rate, but emergency admissions to hospital (2,098 people in 2014/15), and deaths to dementia (505 people in 2014), are both higher than England averages (20). Life Expectancy Over recent years there have been gradual improvements to life expectancy in the Wakefield district. Based on latest calculations ( ), male children born today can expect to live to the age of 78.0, compared to around 79.5 years of age across England as a whole (19). As is the pattern nationally, females born in Wakefield today are expected to live longer than males, to around the age of This compares to a national life expectancy for females of 83.1 years. Although the headline measure of life expectancy is improving, there are higher than average levels of disability in later life. For females being born now, 69.1% of their life is expected to be disability free, compared to 76.0% across all England. For males being born now, 72.5% of their life is expected to be disability free, compared to 79.5% in England (Figure 9). These are amongst the lowest disability free life expectancies in the country (21). Life expectancy 82.0 years 69.1% of life disability free females 56.7 years disability free 25.4 years with a disability Life expectancy 78.2 years 72.5% of life disability free males 56.7 years disability free 21.5 years with a disability years Figure 9 Disability-free life expectancy at birth, The Director of Public Health s Annual Report 2016 points out that ill health in old age is not inevitable, and people can reduce their risk of dementia, disability and frailty by taking action to be more physically active, eat healthily and maintain a healthy weight (22). 14

16 Participation in Sport and Exercise Levels of physical activity among adults have improved in the last couple years and are now similar to the England average (Figure 10) (19). 100 Wakefield England Levels of physical activity were also captured by Wakefield s Health and Lifestyle Survey in This showed variation by age and gender in the frequency of vigorous activity undertaken by local people. Young men undertake substantially more exercise of this sort than their female counterparts, probably due to team sport participation, but that gender gap closes quite quickly as people get older. When asked, over half of residents responded to the survey by saying they would like to increase their level of physical activity. Walking is simple, free and one of the easiest ways to get more active, lose weight and become healthier. It's underrated as a form of exercise, but walking is ideal for people of all ages and fitness levels who want to be more active. Regular walking has been shown to reduce the risk of chronic illnesses, such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma, stroke and some cancers. In 2014/15, 47% of adults from Wakefield District walked (at least 10 minutes) five times a week. Seventeen percent of adults walk between one and hours per day (23). Regular cycling can also reduce the risk of chronic illnesses such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes and stroke. It can also boost your mood and keep your weight under control. In 2014/15, 9.2% of adults cycled at least once a week (23). For health benefits, adults and older adults should do at least 2 hours and 30 minutes (150 minutes) of moderate-intensity activity each week. The first Parkrun events in the District began in Pontefract, but groups now also run events at Nostell Priory and Thornes Park, Wakefield. At the beginning of April 2017, at total of 15,000 runners had participated in events across the District, and the number of runs (runners completing an event) rose by 50% in 2016/17 (Figure 11). % of adults active Figure 10 Adults achieving at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week Pontefract Nostell 45,000 Wakefield Thornes Nostell Juniors 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, / / / / / / runs Figure 11 Parkrun runs per year. 15

17 3.4 SUPPORTING PEOPLE TO BE READY FOR WORK Employment and Unemployment Rates There are signs that the number of Wakefield residents who are in work is increasing again after several years of slow decline. There are 152,400 Wakefield residents aged in employment (year to December 2016) (24), and a further 5,300 people aged 65 and over a number that is increasing steadily. The figures mean that the employment rate of people aged is 73.2% (December 2016) the same as the Leeds City Region but slightly lower than the England (74.3%) rate (24). In the 12 months to December 2016, the unemployment rate in the Wakefield District was 5.6% of people aged 16-64, slightly higher than the Leeds City Region average (4.9%), and the England average (5.3%). Wakefield s unemployment rate had been as high as 10.8% at the height of the economic downturn. In addition to the 9,100 economically active people who are currently unemployed there are 14,000 economically inactive people who would like a job. Worklessness Benefits 11.2% of working age residents (23,490 people) are claiming key out of work benefits (August 2016), compared to 9.7% and 8.6% for the region and Great Britain respectively (25). The trend over time shows that benefit claiming has reduced sharply and has fallen below predownturn levels (Figure 12). Jobseeking Benefits In January 2017, there were 3,940 people out of work and claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) or Universal Credit (for unemployment) Figure 12 Trend in claiming out of work benefits. (UC) in Wakefield. This number is very similar to that seen a year ago, although within the year numbers increase and decrease in response to seasonal employment patterns. The district s unemployment benefit claimant rate (1.9%) is lower than the regional rate (2.2%) and the same as the national average (26). Among young people aged 18 to 24, 3.2% (830 people) were claiming JSA/UC compared with 2.6% nationally. Over the year, youth unemployment has fallen by just 3% (25 fewer people). % of working age people Aug 2008 Aug 2009 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Aug 2012 Aug 2013 Aug 2014 Aug 2015 Aug THE POPULATION AS A WHOLE Population Size and Age Profile The current size of the population in Wakefield is 333,759 people (27). As is typical nationally, the Wakefield age profile (Figure 13) shows the effect of baby-boom years of the 1950s and 1960s and greater numbers of older women than men. Overall numbers are projected to keep on increasing, albeit more slowly than elsewhere in the region, with improved life expectancy resulting in a greater proportion of the population being made up of older people. 16

18 Age male female ,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 people Age male female ,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 people Figure 13 A changing age profile. Ethnicity and Language Wakefield has a relatively small but growing ethnic minority population. In 2001, 3.3% of population defined their ethnicity as other than White British; by the 2011 Census this proportion had increased to 7.2% (28). The largest minority ethnic group is now Other White (Table 7), while the largest group born outside the UK are people born in Poland (29). % of Number population White 310, White; English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British 302, White; Irish White; Gypsy or Irish Traveller White; Other White 7, Mixed 2, Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Black Caribbean 1, Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Black African Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Asian Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; Other Mixed Asian/Asian British 8, Asian/Asian British; Indian 1, Asian/Asian British; Pakistani 4, Asian/Asian British; Bangladeshi Asian/Asian British; Chinese Asian/Asian British; Other Asian 1, Black/African/Caribbean/Black British 2, Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; African 1, Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Caribbean Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Other Black Other Ethnic Group Other Ethnic Group; Arab Other Ethnic Group; Any Other Ethnic Group Table 7 Size of ethnic groups, 2011 Census. 17

19 As a consequence of increasing ethnic diversity there are now many languages spoken within the district. In 2011, for just over 11,000 residents, English was not the main language spoken (30). The most common non-english main languages were Polish (4,194 people); Panjabi (889 people); Urdu (809 people); Latvian (409 people); Lithuanian (344 people); and Kurdish (268 people). Population Change Between mid-2014 and mid-2015 there were 491 more births than deaths; 761 more people arrived in the district from elsewhere in the UK than moved out; and 1,116 more people migrated in from overseas than emigrated (27). 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Registrations for National Insurance numbers by adult overseas nationals (33) in Wakefield shows the large increase in immigration from the EU Accession states from 2004 onwards (Figure 15). This flow of migrant workers, principally from Poland, slowed during the economic downturn and then rose again to a peak in 2015 since when, numbers registering for NI have fallen again markedly. There has also been a recent increase in immigration, for work, from the longerestablished EU countries, particularly from Spain, Portugal and Italy 406 people in the last two years. Immigration of workers from Asia, the Middle East and Africa has slowed since changes to immigration policy came into effect in The number of people who have migrated into Wakefield for work and subsequently returned to their country of origin is not known. people Between 1991 and 2001 the number of deaths 0 per year remained fairly constant, but there was a steady decline in births. Population growth -1,000 UK net migration would have ceased had it not been for an net migration increase in net migration (Figure 14). Since -2, the number of births has been increasing again. Economic migration from Eastern Europe kept up net migration between 2003 year beginning mid- and Figure 14 Components of population change. Figure 13 also shows a marked increase in deaths between mid-2014 and mid This was due to an unusually high number of deaths during the 2014/15 winter 300 excess winter deaths compared to an average of 158 excess deaths in the preceding five winters (31). A similar pattern can be seen nationally, but whereas the calendar year 2015 showed a lot of the increases were due to deaths of women, in Wakefield there was a large increase in deaths of men 116 males deaths in Wakefield for every 100 in the UK as a whole, compared to 107 female deaths in Wakefield for every 100 in the UK (standardised mortality ratios). Two years previously, in 2013, the standardised mortality ratios for males and females had been 111 and 107 respectively (32). births deaths international net migration 18

20 2500 EU Accession Africa Other Other European Asia and Middle East 2000 registrations Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q months to quarter end Q Q Q Q Figure 15 NI number registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK. Q It is not known precisely how many people born elsewhere in the EU are currently living in the District, but the Census and more recent ONS population data suggest the number could be between 13,000 to 20,000 people. Nor do we know precisely how many of these people are currently employed in the District s economy. At the time of the 2011 Census the number was around 5,600 but a further 11,000 National Insurance numbers have been issued to EU-born immigrants living in Wakefield since then. Immigration has contributed to an increase in births. Between 2007 and 2015 there were 1,946 live births in Wakefield to mothers from the new EU states and in % of all births were to mothers born outside of the UK (34) compared to 6.9% in Population Projections The number of people of working age has increased over the past five years, and official projections show the increases continuing (Table 8) (35). This working-age growth is mainly being driven by increases to State Pension Age (SPA) and immigration. The numbers of people aged SPA to 79 is projected to decline slightly as a consequence, but the number of people aged 80 and over is set to increase by 35% over the next ten years. population mid-year estimates projections age ,700 69,600 71,700 73, SPA 194, , , ,500 SPA-79 48,200 50,500 46,600 45, ,100 15,400 17,400 20,800 Total 325, , , ,200 Table 8 Population projections to

21 4 CARING FOR OUR PLACES 4.1 SUPPORTING PEOPLE TO GET HIGHER SKILLS Population Education and Skills Profile Wakefield District has a lower skills profile than the Leeds City Region and England (Table 9). The proportion of the population aged with Level 4 skills has increased over the past decade, but across the Leeds City Region and England it has increased faster, widening the higher skills gap that exists between Wakefield and elsewhere (24). % of people aged Leeds City Qualification Level Wakefield Region England Level Level 3 only Trade Apprenticeships Level 2 only Level 1 only Other None Table 9 Qualification levels in Apprenticeships The number of Advanced apprenticeship starts rose slightly last year and the number of Higher starts increased from 120 to 170 (Figure 16). Intermediate level are the most common apprenticeships started, and these typically lead to a Level 2 qualification (equivalent to five good GCSE passes). Higher level apprenticeships lead to a Level 4 or above qualification. The split of Higher, to Advanced, to Intermediate level is very similar to the England average (36). In total, there were 4,050 apprenticeship starts in 2015/16, up 4.9% from the previous year (37). This growth was higher than the England average (2.0%) but lower than the growth across the Leeds City Region as a whole (7.6%). apprenticeship starts / / / / /16 Figure 16 Apprenticeship starts by level. Higher (Level 4+) Advanced (Level 3) Intermediate (Level 2) Apprenticeships span a wide range of subjects, with one third of starts being in the business, administration and law sector (Table 10). 20

22 2015/16 Sector Subject starts % of total Business, Administration and Law 1,180 30% Health, Public Services and Care % Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies % Retail and Commercial Enterprise % Construction, Planning and the Built Environment 180 5% Table 10 Top-5 apprenticeship sector subjects. Higher Education Numbers of local people studying in higher education (HE) institutions in the UK had been increasing gradually but then dipped when higher tuition fees were introduced (Figure 17). There was a small increase in numbers in academic year 2015/16, with 6,990 people from the Wakefield district engaged in higher education across the UK (38). The total includes more women than men the ratio is around 6:4. Around 70% of the District s higher education students are aged under 25 years old, and 20% are aged 30 or over. In 2014/15, 1,260 people from Wakefield District were awarded a first degree, and 440 were awarded a postgraduate degree. students registered 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 undergraduate postgraduate 2005/ / / / / / / / / / /16 Figure 17 Students registered in higher education. Occupations Compared to the Leeds City Region, the District s economy has lower proportions of professional and managerial jobs and higher proportions of elementary and process/plant machine operative jobs (Table 11). Leeds City Wakefield Occupation (workplace, June 2016) Region Managers, directors and senior officials Professional Associate professional and technical Administrative and secretarial Skilled trades Caring, leisure and other services Sales and customer service Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Table 11 Percentage of jobs in the local economy by occupation level. 21

23 4.2 MAKING THE ECONOMY STRONGER Structure of the Economy Latest available figures show there are 9,905 active businesses in the district (2015) (39). Prior to the downturn, business growth in Wakefield had been strong, outperforming the whole of the Leeds City Region (LCR). All LCR local authorities saw some decrease in the number of active enterprises during the economic downturn, but the decrease in Wakefield during the latter part of this period was more marked (Figure 18). Since 2012, business numbers in the District have grown faster than the LCR average, putting total growth since 2004 on a par with Selby, York, Kirklees and Bradford. Leeds continues to show the strongest growth. 130 Leeds 125 index of growth (2004=100) Wakefield Harrogate Calderdale Barnsley Craven Figure 18 Growth in number of active enterprises in the Leeds City Region. The prevailing economic conditions of the past decade have affected the chances of newly started businesses in different ways. Businesses born between 2004 and 2006 tended to fare well, with short and medium-term survival rates turning out very similar to the England average, and sometimes slightly above. The three-year Survival rates for businesses starting in 2007 and 2008 then dropped sharply, as the economic downturn deepened. Survival rates started to improve again in 2011, and for businesses that started out in 2012 the survival rates have been slightly higher than Leeds City Region and England averages. Health is the largest employment sector in the district, followed by manufacturing (Table 12) (40). There is a large amount of employment in retail, but the numbers fell significantly during the economic downturn and are only recovering slowly. Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing has increased between 2010 and 2015, particularly the manufacture of food (+1,200 jobs), fabricated metal products (+600), vehicles and trailers (+400), and furniture (+300). The increase in professional, scientific and technical jobs over the same period is mainly due to a large increase in legal and accounting activities (+1,600 jobs), plus smaller increases in architectural and engineering testing services (+300) and management consultancy (+300). 22

24 In 2010 there were 36,200 people in employment in the public sector in Wakefield (26% of the total in employment). In 2015 this number fell to 30,600, or 21% of the total in employment. Similar reductions have been seen across the Leeds City Region (40). Employment (people) Sector Difference Manufacturing 15,300 17,100 18,600 +3,300 Professional, scientific & technical 5,100 5,900 7,600 +2,500 Transport & storage (inc postal) 11,800 13,500 13,900 +2,100 Business administration & support services 11,500 12,300 12, Wholesale 8,000 7,900 8, Property 1,900 2,400 2, Motor trades 2,900 3,600 3, Financial & insurance 1,700 2,100 2, Health 20,000 21,200 20, Mining, quarrying & utilities 1,700 2,200 2, Accommodation & food services 8,300 9,300 8, Education 11,900 11,800 12, Arts, entertainment, recreation & other 5,200 4,600 5, Construction 7,100 6,600 6, Information & communication 2,400 2,400 2, Retail 15,400 13,700 13,500-1,900 Public administration & defence 10,500 8,600 8,400-2,100 Agriculture, forestry & fishing TOTAL 140, , ,200 +8,500 Table 12 Numbers of jobs in the District, by sector (rounded to nearest 100). Economic Performance The output of the local economy can be measured by its Gross Value Added (GVA). The figures presented below represent the income approach to estimating GVA, which measures the incomes earned by individuals (e.g. wages) and corporations (e.g. profits) in the production of outputs (goods or services). In these terms, Wakefield s GVA was 6.62 billion in 2015, up 1.8% from 2014 (41). A three-year average figure helps to smooth out annual variability and shows that Wakefield s GVA growth has slowed over the last decade. Growth in recent years had been higher than the Yorkshire and Humber region average, but has fallen back again recently (Figure 19). The overall productivity of the local economy can be measured by the Gross Value Added (GVA) per hour worked. Figure 20 shows this productivity trend over recent years relative to the UK (index=100). The use of a relative % growth Figure 19 Growth in GVA, 3-year average three-year average, ending Wakefield index helps to control for inflation. Wakefield s economic productivity fell between 2004 and 2009 and then started to increase again. Leeds has the highest productivity in the sub-region, but this has been declining relative to the UK as a whole. Productivity in Calderdale and Kirklees has also been falling. Y&H

25 Leeds Calderdale and Kirklees 105 Bradford Wakefield GVA per hour worked index Figure 20 Productivity trends. 4.3 CULTURE AND SPORT Culture and sport play an increasingly important role in transforming Wakefield in terms of economic regeneration but also bring about positive change in the ambition, self-confidence and the health of the district. The total value of tourism activity in Wakefield in 2013 is estimated to have been around 359 million. Cultural Attractions and Tourism The district has nationally important cultural heritage sites at Pontefract Castle, Nostell Priory, Wakefield Cathedral and the National Coal Mining Museum for England. The Yorkshire Sculpture Park and the Hepworth Wakefield are internationally important contemporary art galleries including works by locally born artists, Henry Moore and Barbara Hepworth. The leading cultural attractions across the district combined attracted over 1.3m visitors in 2016/17 (Table 13), despite significant refurbishment and redevelopment works taking place at Pontefract Castle and Pontefract Museum. Summer 2017 will see the opening of the new Visitor Centre at Pontefract Castle, which will increase understanding of the castle s heritage for and provide improved facilities for visitors. Numbers visiting the Yorkshire Sculpture Park increased significantly in 2015/16 as a result of the Poppies sculpture by Paul Cummins. Visitors Attraction 2014/ / /17 Yorkshire Sculpture Park 429, , ,000 Nostell Priory (house + grounds) 118, , ,000 (245,000) The Hepworth Wakefield 206, , ,000 National Coal Mining Museum 119, , ,000 Pontefract Castle 66,000 84,000 86,000 Theatre Royal 77,000 77,000 84,000 Wakefield Museum 33,000 41,000 42,000 Pontefract Museum 39,000 44,000 30,000 Castleford Museum 14,000 14,000 15,000 Table 13 Visitor numbers to local cultural attractions. 24

26 A total million was spent on trips to Wakefield in 2015 by overnight and day visitors, up 9% compared to % of this expenditure was made by domestic staying-visitors; 6% by overseas staying-visitors and 72% by day visitors. Libraries There are currently 13 libraries in the district being run by Wakefield Council, and a mobile/home library service library service. The number of people visiting Council-run libraries in 2016/17 was approximately 900,000 with 13% of the district population having borrowed a book or used a library computer in the last 12 months. Across all the Council-run libraries there were 649,000 books issued during the same period. Fiction remains more popular than non-fiction, and children s books make up a significant proportion (34%) of the total issues. In addition to print books, 9,272 e-books and e-audio books were issued. 10,840 e-magazines were checked out and our range of other free online resources was accessed 158,102 times in the course of the year. The introduction of Wi-Fi in all libraries has seen the hourly use of computers rise to 419,000 throughout 2016/ IMPROVING THE PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Transport Wakefield has good transport links to the wider region and UK, being served by the M1 and M62 motorways and an extensive network of rail and bus services. The Transport Plan target is for 96% of district residents to be able to reach one of the three main centres (Wakefield, Castleford and Pontefract) by public transport within 45 minutes. Private car numbers continue to grow. The proportion of Wakefield households that have a car or van (73%) has now caught up with the England rate (74%), and on average there are now 1.5 cars per car-owning household. More people use their cars to travel to work in Wakefield than in the region as a whole and nationally, and journeys tend to be longer. This is likely to reflect the dispersed nature of settlements in the district. Nevertheless, the 2011 census showed that 36% of people travelled less than 5km to work each day. Rush-hour survey data show that car travel in Wakefield is the dominant mode of transport for commuting. Over the last five years car usage has dropped and train usage and walking has increased (Table 14). % of inbound journeys by people during morning rush-hour in Wakefield Mode Car Bus Train Walk Cycle/motorcycle Van/HGV Table 14 Most people commute by car. 25

27 Overall, the 2011 Census shows that among nearby local authorities the only net loss of commuters is to Leeds. For all the other districts there are more commuters coming into Wakefield each day to work than there are commuters going the other way (Figure 21). commute into Wakefield from commute from Wakefield to Leeds Kirklees Barnsley Selby Doncaster Bradford Calderdale York 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 20,000 30,000 people in employment Figure 21 Commuter flows. Housing Stock In September 2016 there were 152,459 dwellings across the district (42). The proportion of people owning their own home (outright or with a mortgage) is around the England average but renting from social landlords is a more common than nationally, with private renting less common (43). The proportion of households that own their own home (64%) has changed little over the last 10 years. The latest census, however, shows a large increase in the proportion of households that rent privately, with the rate in Wakefield up from 7% in 2001 to 11% in This equates to an additional 6,900 households that rent privately across the district. The scale of the increase is similar across England as a whole. There is a broad spectrum of house types and house sizes across the district but Council Tax records show the majority of properties (70%) are in the lower-value bands A and B, compared to 64% and 44% for the region and England respectively (42). Housing Sales sales new properties existing properties provisional The volume of housing sales fell sharply in 2008 and Since then the number of properties being sold has increased steadily and is now back to pre-downturn levels. Recent growth has been buoyed by increasing amounts of new house building (Figure 22) (44) Figure 22 Housing sales volumes recovering. 26

28 New Homes In 2015/16 there were 488 affordable homes completed through planning, and 1,452 private homes (45) (Figure 23). Combined, house completions increased 61% compared to the previous year. Of the total building in 2015/16, 55% of home and 15% of employment floorspace were completed on previously developed, or brownfield, land. This misses the target of 65% for dwellings and the target of 40% for employment floorspace, but of the greenfield housing completions, 90% of these were on allocated housing land, and the majority of the employment completions were at the greenfield allocations of Normanton Industrial Estate Extension and the Newmarket development (45). dwellings completed via planning 2,000 1,500 1, affordable private 2006/ / / / / / / /14 Figure 23 New homes completed. 2014/ /16 The rate of housebuilding over the last four years has been 11% higher than the England average and the second highest rate in the Leeds City Region, behind Selby. Housing Market In the 12 months to the end of September 2016, the median house price was 135,000 (46), representing an annual price increase of 4%. The lower quartile house price was 100,000, representing an annual price increase of 3%. In 2002, the median house price was 3.4-times the median gross earnings of people working fulltime but by 2005 the ratio had risen to 5.6-times. Affordability for people on lower earnings had been similar, but continued to worsen until 2008, at which point the large downturn in the housing market brought prices down (Figure 24). The latest data show that the median house price ( 135k) is 5.6 times higher than the median salary of full-time workers ( 24,289), and the lower quartile house price ( 100k) is 5.3 times higher than the lower quartile salary of full-time workers ( 18,823) (47). 7.0 median house price to median earnings lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings 6.0 affordability ratio Figure 24 House prices compared to earnings. 27

29 4.5 MAKING SURE ALL COMMUNITIES BENEFIT FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015 As is the case across the country, there are parts of the Wakefield district where more people tend to be poorer, or less healthy, or more likely to be out of work. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is calculated for every neighbourhood in England every three or four years, and it combines issues such as income, employment, education, crime and housing. At the district level Wakefield is the 65 th most deprived district in England (out of 326 districts), a small change from 2010, when Wakefield was 67 th most deprived (48). The IMD 2015 shows that 47,400 people in the district are living in neighbourhoods amongst the top-10% most deprived in England. This is 14.4% of the district s population, similar to the position in 2007 (14.6%). The geography of multiple deprivation is shown in Figure 25. The district s deprivation profile is shaped by high levels of education and skills deprivation, and relative to England the situation remained unchanged from Income and health deprivation are also prominent and both worsened relative to England between 2010 and 2015, but crime and living environment deprivation both improved. Analysis of the IMD 2015 shows that deprivation relative to elsewhere in England has stayed the same for 78% of neighbourhoods. For 16% of neighbourhoods the relative deprivation has become worse and 6% of neighbourhoods have improved. Of the neighbourhoods that have seen improvement, all had low levels of deprivation to start with. Figure 25 Index of Multiple Deprivation