People Councils Economy

Transcription

1 People Councils Economy the An assessment of the impact of proposed changes to the UK Benefits System on people, councils and the economy in Scotland. September 2010

2 The Scottish Local Government Forum Against Poverty is a network of Scottish local authority members and officers, together with other public and third sector organisations with a specific interest in anti-poverty and social justice policy issues. The Forum is primarily concerned to highlight problems of poverty, inequality and social justice in Britain today. It is also interested in developing and replicating "good practice" in anti-poverty strategy development amongst its members. Rights Advice Scotland is an organisation representing the many Welfare Rights Officers in Scottish Local Authorities. We aim to be a key player in the field of Social Welfare Law and to promote the excellent work and breadth of knowledge of our members. Rights Advice Scotland will work in partnership with other organisations to ensure the delivery of high quality advice across the field, providing information and training on benefit related matters to its own members and to advisers in other organisations throughout Scotland. Additionally we will campaign for the uptake of benefits and for benefit reform. The Scottish Local Government Forum Against Poverty and Rights Advice Scotland can be contacted through their joint Co-ordinator, Graham Kerr, on or at graham@rascot.org.uk 2 People Councils Economy

3 Background In its Emergency Budget of 22 June 2010 the new United Kingdom Government announced that by 2014/15 it proposed to cut 11billion annually from the UK s benefits system. The savings are expected to arise as a result of welfare reform and the decision to raise benefits in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) instead of the Retail Price Index (RPI). At a meeting of the Scottish Local Government Forum Against Poverty in Edinburgh on 23 July members heard from Rights Advice Scotland that just two of the changes identified in the Budget (the continued migration from Incapacity Benefit to Employment Support Allowance and the reduction in Disability Living Allowance entitlement) would together remove almost 400million from benefit recipients in Scotland. The Forum also heard how the Budget proposals on benefits would have implications for councils and for the wider Scottish economy. The Forum expressed concern at the general lack of analysis to assess the impact of the Budget and commissioned RAS to produce this report. Contents Executive Summary The National picture Direct cuts From RPI to CPI Public Sector Pensions the Economy Councils Council by council Sources and methodology People Councils Economy 3

4 Executive Summary Scotland s poorest individuals, families and communities will pay a heavy price for successive UK Governments decisions to prop-up the collapsing banking and financial services sector and reduce the resultant national deficit by cutting public expenditure, benefits and reforming the welfare system. Proposals to tackle the deficit will see Scotland s hardest pressed individuals, families and communities have: lower incomes due to cuts, freezes and reforms to benefits and allowances; higher costs as VAT and prices rise; fewer public services as local authorities and other providers are forced to reduce budgets; and reduced opportunities to find further and higher education places or paid work as budget cuts hit the education sector and redundancies across the public sector swell the already high numbers of unemployed people. In the following pages this report makes no judgement on the fairness, or otherwise of the Government s approach; nor does it seek to make recommendations. Instead this report aims to inform by demonstrating the wider impact of just a handful of the deficit-cutting measures on Scotland s people, councils and economy. The numbers, all drawn from official government sources, are simply breathtaking. As proposals become law and are phased in over the next few years Scotland stands to lose between million from its economy. This equates to every woman, man and child in the country having their spending power reduced by approximately each year. That means million less will be spent in local shops and on local services with predictable outcomes. Research conducted by the Fraser of Allander Institute for Glasgow City Council in 2003 found that every million raised in extra benefits supported the creation of 250 jobs across Scotland. The impact of removing million from benefits means around 11,900-14,220 additional jobs will be jeopardised in an economy already experiencing higher than UK average unemployment. Many of the losses outlined in this report are the result of the change from using the Retail Price Index (RPI) to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for uprating benefits and allowances. On the handful of benefits analysed here the change will lead to more than 90million being removed from the Scottish economy each year. The real figure is likely to be far higher. 4 People Councils Economy

5 For instance the figures used here do not include the impact of linking public sector pensions to the CPI instead of the RPI. This change has been widely overlooked but its impact cannot be overstated. - a pensioner in receipt of a 10,000 annual pension from their former public sector employer will lose almost 60,000 over the next 20 years of their retirement if the RPI-CPI differential remains at today s level. In 2030 that pension will be worth 18,415 using CPI rather the 25,540 it would have been worth if the link to RPI was maintained. The loss in pension earnings of more than 17billion over the next 20 years will be a major loss to the wider Scottish economy. In the shorter term Scotland s councils, themselves expected to cut around 1 in every 4 that they currently spend, are likely too face huge increases in the demands for their services; particularly in the areas of social work, housing and advice. Efforts to meet this increased demand will in turn have a detrimental impact on other services such as education, leisure and cleansing. Analysis of proposed benefit reforms is often over-focused on individual benefits or allowances and the presentation of reforms by national politicians and the media all too often confuses benefit need and fraud. In looking at a bigger picture this report presents a fuller, but still not comprehensive, illustration of the impact of current proposals. It is imperative that those involved in making decisions affecting public spending in Scotland have the information that allows them to see and make judgements based on the wider and collective impact of individual changes. This report plugs a small gap in that analysis but a full independent review of the wider of impact of changes should form part of the parliamentary processes affecting welfare reforms. People Councils Economy 5

6 The National picture Direct cuts Just three of the proposed changes to the welfare system will together result in more than 400million annual cuts to benefit recipients in Scotland. 51% of Local Housing Allowance (LHA) claimants will be affected by the decision to remove the 15 excess payment and 79% of claimants will lose an average of 7 per week as a result of LHA being set at the 30th percentile of local rents as opposed to the current 50th percentile. Altogether, more than 75% of 60,150 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of 27,312,100. (DLA) The Government has said it wants to reduce the number of claimants by 20%. For Scotland that means DLA for one fifth of the current 340,510 claimants will be cut leading to annual losses of 259,571,203. Should the Government choose to limit the target group to those working age recipients of DLA then Scotland-wide losses will total 149million. The migration from Incapacity Benefit (IB) to Employment Support Allowance begun by the previous Government is to continue and perhaps be accelerated by the new Government. Trials to date have shown that following a new medical test only one third of new claimants are still able to qualify for a disability-linked benefit. Applying the same failure rate to existing IB recipients who will be migrated to ESA over the next four years means the total number of claimants, 239,550, would be cut by 66% leading to annual losses of 235,852,587. Government modelling historically underestimates the impact of changes and even if their expectation that 23% of existing IB claimants will fail the medical and of those 30% will come off benefit altogether while the others will move to Jobseekers Allowance or other benefit is accurate then annual losses across Scotland will still exceed 135million. Taken together these three changes result in annual losses to benefit recipients of between 422,687,345 and 522,752, People Councils Economy

7 Moving to CPI from RPI More than half of the 11billion annual benefit savings announced in the Emergency Budget will come from the decision to raise benefits in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) instead of the Retail Price Index (RPI). Over the last 20 years there have only been three occasions when CPI was higher than RPI. The latest figures show that in July 2010 the CPI measure of inflation was at 3.1% while RPI was at 4.8%. While the change to using CPI will not come into force until April 2011 it is worth noting the impact of the change on some of the most common benefits. Child Benefit Across Scotland 620,795 families receiving Child Benefit for 1,034,100 children will lose 142,517,271 ( 90,458,194 if CPI used) over the course of the 3-year benefit freeze. That means they will share in losses of 47,505,757 each year. Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) Scotland s 137,108 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 6,577,430 each year. Carers Allowance The 99,860 Carers Allowance recipients in Scotland will lose 4,725,375 annually. Attendance Allowance The 147,000 over-65s who receive Attendance Allowance will collectively lose 28,099,780 each year. Incapacity Benefit The 213,440 Incapacity Benefit recipients in Scotland will between them lose 11,452,980 annually. Income Support Scotland s 186,010 Income Support recipients will lose 10,833,222 each year. Employment Support Allowance (ESA) The 49,450 people in Scotland already on Employment Support Allowance will lose 2,879,968 annually. Taken together the above changes result in annual losses to benefit recipients of 92,074,512. A breakdown of the impact of these cuts and changes on each of Scotland s 32 local authority areas is included on pages People Councils Economy 7

8 The National picture continued Public Sector Pensions While steps have been taken to protect the value of state pensions, little has been reported about the impact of the change from RPI to CPI on public sector changes. From 2011 all public pensions will uprated by CPI instead of RPI. This means that a public servant retiring next year on the average public pension of 9,477 would see, if the RPI/CPI differential remained constant, their pension fall in value over a 20-year period from 24,205 to 17,452. The individual s loss in pension earnings over that period would amount to 56,319. There are more than *300,000 public sector pensioners in Scotland and their collective loss, and subsequent loss to the economy will amount to more than 17billion. *The figures used here are drawn from a number of official sources but exclude local government pensioners. The average local government pension is currently 4,700 a year. Over a 20-year period the average local government pensioner will lose 27,931 and at current levels their pension will rise to 8,655 using CPI instead of 12,004 under RPI. 8 People Councils Economy

9 the Economy Between million to be lost each year from the purchasing power of individuals and families across Scotland. 11,900-14,220 additional jobs will be jeopardised when these benefits and allowances are withdrawn or reduced. More than 17billion will be lost from the spending power of pensioners over the next 20 years as the move from RPI to CPI takes effect. Councils Any reduction in income of benefit recipients will have an impact on councils income derived from charging for services. This will be particularly noticeable in terms of: personal care; and council tax levels. Housing benefit administration recharges will be affected if the total housing benefit count is reduced. Increased likelihood of business failure will lead to a reduction in business rate income. Increased demand for services, particularly social work and housing. Increased demands on welfare rights advice services as large numbers of people look for assistance with appeals and general advice on alternative benefits. People Councils Economy 9

10 Total annual loss of 15,212,216-18,766,873 Aberdeen City More than 75% of 820 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 372,000 Total number of claimants (9,760) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 7,044,970 Total number of claimants (8,570) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 4,822,195-8,376,853 Annual losses to Aberdeen residents = 12,239,166-15,793,824 3,251 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 159,802 annually 2,380 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 112,622 annually 4,510 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 245,180 annually 21,580 families receiving Child Benefit for 34,425 children will lose 4,794,270 ( 3,043,175 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,598,090 each year) 1,700 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 99,008 annually 6,050 Income Support recipients will lose 352,352 annually 7,570 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 405,996 annually Annual losses to Aberdeen residents = 2,973,050 Total annual loss of 15,290,931-18,025,917 Aberdeenshire More than 75% of 1,030 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 467,000 Total number of claimants (10,000) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 7,641,109 Total number of claimants (6,680) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 3,710,241-6,445,227 Annual losses to Aberdeenshire residents = 11,818,350-14,553, People Councils Economy 2,107 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 99,012 annually 2,910 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 137,701 annually 4,280 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 230,376 annually 30,115 families receiving Child Benefit for 51,880 children will lose 7,093,754 ( 4,502,339 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 2,364,585 each year) 1,360 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 79,206 annually 3,680 Income Support recipients will lose 214,323 annually 5,710 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 347,379 annually Annual losses to Aberdeenshire residents = 3,472,581

11 Total annual loss of 9,275,924-10,935,863 Angus More than 75% of 1,130 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 513,000 Total number of claimants (6,220) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 4,677,317 Total number of claimants (3,990) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 2,251,848-3,911,787 Annual losses to Angus residents = 7,442,165-9,102,103 2,238 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 105,263 annually 2,080 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 98,426 annually 3,120 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 171,922 annually 13,540 families receiving Child Benefit for 23,115 children will lose 3,167,284 ( 2,010,268 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,055,761 each year) 770 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 44,845 annually 2,810 Income Support recipients will lose 163,654 annually 3,410 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 193,889 annually Annual losses to Angus residents = 1,833,760 Total annual loss of 7,534,071-8,848,017 Argyll & Bute More than 75% of 1,590 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 722,000 Total number of claimants (4,690) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 3,633,360 Total number of claimants (3,170) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,782,480-3,096,427 Annual losses to Argyll & Bute residents = 6,137,840-7,451,786 1,653 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 80,505 annually 1,400 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 66,248 annually 3,070 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 166,405 annually 9,705 families receiving Child Benefit for 16,720 children will lose 2,286,162 ( 1,451,005 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 762,054 each year) 700 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 40,768 annually 2,180 Income Support recipients will lose 126,963 annually 2,820 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 153,287 annually Annual losses to Argyll & Bute residents = 1,396,231 People Councils Economy 11

12 Total annual loss of 5,482,570-6,582,044 Clackmannanshire More than 75% of 520 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 236,000 Total number of claimants (3,650) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 2,743,759 Total number of claimants (2,710) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,531,033-2,630,507 Annual losses to Clackmannanshire residents = 4,510,792-5,610,266 1,664 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 78,847 annually 930 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 44,008 annually 1,030 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 55,962 annually 6,595 families receiving Child Benefit for 11,000 children will lose 1,515,527 ( 961,930 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 505,176 each year) 540 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 31,450 annually 2,050 Income Support recipients will lose 119,392 annually 2,450 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 136,944 annually Annual losses to Clackmannanshire residents = 971,778 Total annual loss of 14,417,380-16,884,634 Dumfries & Galloway More than 75% of 1,500 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 681,000 Total number of claimants (10,070) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 7,881,260 Total number of claimants (5,930) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 3,347,039-5,814,293 Annual losses to D&G residents = 11,909,300-14,376, People Councils Economy 2,998 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 141,923 annually 3,570 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 168,932 annually 4,910 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 273,328 annually 16,905 families receiving Child Benefit for 28,880 children will lose 3,956,568 ( 2,511,223 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,318,856 each year) 1,060 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 61,734 annually 4,100 Income Support recipients will lose 238,784 annually 5,140 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 304,523 annually Annual losses to Dumfries & Galloway residents = 2,508,080

13 Total annual loss of 17,516,591-21,124,796 Dundee City More than 75% of 2,820 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 1,281,000 Total number of claimants (11,290) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 8,521,401 Total number of claimants (8,620) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 4,894,836-8,503,040 Annual losses to Dundee residents = 14,697,237-18,305,441 5,094 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 242,756 annually 3,470 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 164,200 annually 4,790 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 265,928 annually 16,725 families receiving Child Benefit for 27,185 children will lose 3,768,697 ( 2,392,133 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,256,232 each year) 1,740 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 101,338 annually 7,050 Income Support recipients will lose 410,592 annually 7,500 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 378,308 annually Annual losses to Dundee residents = 2,819,355 Total annual loss of 13,800,903-16,441,153 East Ayrshire More than 75% of 1,590 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 722,000 Total number of claimants (9,120) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 7,109,024 Total number of claimants (6,280) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 3,581,723-6,221,973 Annual losses to East Ayrshire residents = 11,412,747-14,052,997 4,366 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 204,176 annually 3,120 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 147,638 annually 3,990 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 216,455 annually 15,275 families receiving Child Benefit for 25,030 children will lose 3,463,166 ( 2,198,178 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,154,389 each year) 1,270 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 73,965 annually 4,970 Income Support recipients will lose 289,453 annually 5,580 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 302,080 annually Annual losses to East Ayrshire residents = 2,388,156 People Councils Economy 13

14 Total annual loss of 7,603,344-8,830,793 East Dunbartonshire More than 75% of 660 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 299,000 Total number of claimants (5,130) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 3,979,737 Total number of claimants (2,960) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,665,138-2,892,587 Annual losses to East Dunbartonshire residents = 5,943,875-7,171,323 1,936 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 92,254 annually 1,510 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 71,453 annually 3,480 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 193,482 annually 12,765 families receiving Child Benefit for 21,630 children will lose 2,968,984 ( 1,884,425 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 989,661 each year) 660 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 38,438 annually 2,010 Income Support recipients will lose 117,062 annually 2,580 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 157,119 annually Annual losses to East Dunbartonshire residents = 1,659,470 Total annual loss of 8,039,858-9,497,968 East Lothian More than 75% of 840 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 381,000 Total number of claimants (5,300) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 4,072,900 Total number of claimants (3,490) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,978,050-3,436,160 Annual losses to East Lothian residents = 6,431,950-7,890, People Councils Economy 1,873 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 88,617 annually 1,430 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 67,668 annually 2,400 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 129,444 annually 12,360 families receiving Child Benefit for 20,970 children will lose 2,877,545 ( 1,826,386 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 959,182 each year) 710 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 41,350 annually 2,420 Income Support recipients will lose 140,941 annually 3,080 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 180,707 annually Annual losses to East Lothian residents = 1,607,908

15 Total annual loss of 6,272,349-7,322,683 East Renfrewshire More than 75% of 450 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 204,000 Total number of claimants (4,090) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 3,187,818 Total number of claimants (2,540) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,424,867-2,475,200 Annual losses to East Renfrewshire residents = 4,816,685-5,867,018 1,405 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 67,501 annually 1,140 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 53,945 annually 2,710 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 150,389 annually 11,480 families receiving Child Benefit for 20,165 children will lose 2,744,940 ( 1,742,146 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 914,980 each year) 630 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 36,691 annually 1,670 Income Support recipients will lose 97,261 annually 2,230 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 134,897 annually Annual losses to East Renfrewshire residents = 1,455,664 Total annual loss of 38,005,895-45,469,440 Edinburgh City More than 75% of 10,210 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 4,638,000 Total number of claimants (22,210) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 16,612,201 Total number of claimants (17,830) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 10,124,934-17,588,480 Annual losses to Edinburgh residents = 31,375,135-38,838,681 10,598 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 519,333 annually 5,320 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 251,742 annually 9,570 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 518,216 annually 46,955 families receiving Child Benefit for 76,875 children will lose 10,638,693 ( 6,752,712 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 3,546,231 each year) 3,300 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 192,192 annually 15,090 Income Support recipients will lose 878,842 annually 15,560 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 724,203 annually Annual losses to Edinburgh residents = 6,630,760 People Councils Economy 15

16 Total annual loss of 2,114,884-2,535,018 Eilean Siar More than 75% of 150 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 68,000 Total number of claimants (1,360) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 1,039,319 Total number of claimants (1,010) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 569, ,080 Annual losses to Eilean Siar residents = 1,677,365-2,097, Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 24,806 annually 520 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 24,606 annually 1,150 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 62,936 annually 2,880 families receiving Child Benefit for 5,145 children will lose 697,679 ( 442,790 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 232,560 each year) 180 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 10,483 annually 490 Income Support recipients will lose 28,538 annually 880 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 53,591 annually Annual losses to Eilean Siar residents = 437, People Councils Economy Total annual loss of 14,904,530-17,783,679 Falkirk More than 75% of 970 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 440,000 Total number of claimants (10,350) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 7,827,165 Total number of claimants (6,950) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 3,905,811-6,784,960 Annual losses to Falkirk residents = 12,172,975-15,052,125 3,992 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 192,908 annually 2,990 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 141,487 annually 3,890 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 213,949 annually 19,375 families receiving Child Benefit for 31,665 children will lose 4,383,967 ( 2,782,647 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,461,322 each year) 1,450 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 84,448 annually 4,750 Income Support recipients will lose 276,640 annually 6,170 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 360,801 annually Annual losses to Falkirk residents = 2,731,554

17 Total annual loss of 33,639,380-40,143,209 Fife More than 75% of 3,950 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 1,794,000 Total number of claimants (22,100) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 16,744,338 Total number of claimants (15,740) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 8,822,997-15,326,827 Annual losses to Fife residents = 27,361,335-33,865,165 10,340 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 494,122 annually 6,080 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 287,706 annually 8,500 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 466,752 annually 43,980 families receiving Child Benefit for 73,515 children will lose 10,123,324 ( 6,425,422 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 3,374,441 each year) 3,100 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 180,544 annually 11,700 Income Support recipients will lose 681,408 annually 14,020 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 793,072 annually Annual losses to Fife residents = 6,278,045 Total annual loss of 84,079, ,174,122 Glasgow City More than 75% of 9,150 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 4,157,000 Total number of claimants (56,530) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 42,612,632 Total number of claimants (43,110) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 24,546,819-42,641,387 Annual losses to Glasgow residents = 71,316,451-89,411,019 25,693 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 1,247,456 annually 15,460 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 731,567 annually 19,860 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 1,096,607 annually 67,550 families receiving Child Benefit for 109,535 children will lose 15,193,786 ( 9,644,092 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 5,064,595 each year) 9,170 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 534,061 annually 40,210 Income Support recipients will lose 2,341,830 annually 39,580 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 1,746,987 annually Annual losses to Glasgow residents = 12,763,103 People Councils Economy 17

18 Total annual loss of 18,111,317-21,583,595 Highland More than 75% of 1,620 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 736,000 Total number of claimants (11,990) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 9,080,963 Total number of claimants (8,370) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 4,710,441-8,182,720 Annual losses to Highland residents = 14,527,404-17,999,683 3,652 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 177,051 annually 3,520 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 166,566 annually 5,740 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 321,292 annually 26,335 families receiving Child Benefit for 45,585 children will lose 6,226,139 ( 3,951,649 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 2,075,380 each year) 1,740 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 101,338 annually 5,820 Income Support recipients will lose 338,957 annually 7,340 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 403,329 annually Annual losses to Highland residents = 3,583, People Councils Economy Total annual loss of 10,419,375-12,688,919 Inverclyde More than 75% of 1,300 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 590,000 Total number of claimants (6,770) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 5,042,991 Total number of claimants (5,410) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 3,078,829-5,348,373 Annual losses to Inverclyde residents = 8,711,821-10,981,365 2,560 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 119,426 annually 1,960 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 92,747 annually 2,860 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 159,052 annually 10,220 families receiving Child Benefit for 16,535 children will lose 2,294,848 ( 1,456,634 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 764,949 each year) 1,070 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 62,317 annually 4,120 Income Support recipients will lose 239,949 annually 4,930 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 269,114 annually Annual losses to Inverclyde residents = 1,707,554

19 Total annual loss of 7,785,130-9,160,861 Midlothian More than 75% of 680 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 308,000 Total number of claimants (5,560) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 4,192,198 Total number of claimants (3,340) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,866,296-3,242,027 Annual losses to Midlothian residents = 6,366,494-7,742,225 1,858 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 87,424 annually 1,460 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 69,087 annually 1,910 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 105,180 annually 10,465 families receiving Child Benefit for 17,520 children will lose 2,411,690 ( 1,530,732 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 803,897 each year) 600 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 34,944 annually 2,430 Income Support recipients will lose 141,523 annually 2,870 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 176,581 annually Annual losses to Midlothian residents = 1,418,636 Total annual loss of 6,465,568-7,631,232 Moray More than 75% of 730 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 331,000 Total number of claimants (4,250) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 3,211,005 Total number of claimants (2,840) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,581,322-2,746,987 Annual losses to Moray residents = 5,123,328-6,288,992 1,371 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 64,556 annually 1,310 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 61,989 annually 1,880 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 101,145 annually 10,630 families receiving Child Benefit for 18,335 children will lose 2,506,306 ( 1,590,727 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 835,435 each year) 550 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 32,032 annually 1,820 Income Support recipients will lose 105,997 annually 2,420 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 141,086 annually Annual losses to Moray residents = 1,342,240 People Councils Economy 19

20 Total annual loss of 15,622,094-18,637,168 North Ayrshire More than 75% of 2,200 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 999,000 Total number of claimants (10,190) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 7,796,615 Total number of claimants (7,140) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 4,090,205-7,105,280 Annual losses to North Ayrshire residents = 12,885,820-15,900,895 5,453 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 257,417 annually 3,170 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 150,004 annually 4,330 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 235,893 annually 17,260 families receiving Child Benefit for 28,550 children will lose 3,941,288 ( 2,501,626 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,313,763 each year) 1,490 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 86,778 annually 6,040 Income Support recipients will lose 351,770 annually 6,430 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 340,649 annually Annual losses to North Ayrshire residents = 2,736,274 Total annual loss of 40,695,790-48,497,090 North Lanarkshire More than 75% of 3,320 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 1,508,000 Total number of claimants (27,390) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 21,599,141 Total number of claimants (18,400) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 10,583,127-18,384,427 Annual losses to North Lanarkshire residents = 33,690,268-41,491, People Councils Economy 11,610 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 554,650 annually 8,450 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 399,854 annually 11,270 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 626,491 annually 44,270 families receiving Child Benefit for 72,990 children will lose 10,084,012 ( 6,400,581 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 3,361,337 each year) 4,160 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 242,278 annually 13,890 Income Support recipients will lose 808,954 annually 16,680 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 1,011,958 annually Annual losses to North Lanarkshire residents = 7,005,522

21 Total annual loss of 1,393,100-1,632,000 Orkney Islands More than 75% of 150 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 68,000 Total number of claimants (900) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 715,790 Total number of claimants (580) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 324, ,987 Annual losses to Orkney residents = 1,107,878-1,346, Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 8,655 annually 270 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 12,776 annually 520 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 28,938 annually 2,240 families receiving Child Benefit for 3,970 children will lose 539,313 ( 342,285 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 179,771 each year) 90 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 5,242 annually 330 Income Support recipients will lose 19,219 annually 500 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 30,622 annually Annual losses to Orkney residents = 285,223 Total annual loss of 10,411,541-12,232,119 Perth & Kinross More than 75% of 1,330 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 604,000 Total number of claimants (6,860) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 5,198,107 Total number of claimants (4,420) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 2,469,769-4,290,347 Annual losses to Perth & Kinross residents = 8,271,876-10,092,454 2,000 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 96,931 annually 2,330 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 110,256 annually 4,070 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 226,860 annually 16,260 families receiving Child Benefit for 27,775 children will lose 3,805,282 ( 2,415,202 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,268,427 each year) 950 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 55,328 annually 3,040 Income Support recipients will lose 177,050 annually 3,710 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 204,814 annually Annual losses to Perth & Kinross residents = 2,139,665 People Councils Economy 21

22 Total annual loss of 18,958,031-22,623,901 Renfrewshire More than 75% of 1,970 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 895,000 Total number of claimants (12,940) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 9,804,070 Total number of claimants (8,770) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 4,973,064-8,638,933 Annual losses to Renfrewshire residents = 15,672,133-19,338,003 5,107 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 244,162 annually 3,430 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 162,308 annually 5,590 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 311,990 annually 21,725 families receiving Child Benefit for 35,285 children will lose 4,892,521 ( 3,105,469 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,630,840 each year) 1,950 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 113,568 annually 6,670 Income Support recipients will lose 388,461 annually 7,920 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 434,569 annually Annual losses to Renfrewshire residents = 3,285,898 Total annual loss of 8,408,089-9,944,459 Scottish Borders More than 75% of 1,110 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 504,000 Total number of claimants (5,450) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 4,094,678 Total number of claimants (3,730) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 2,084,217-3,620,587 Annual losses to Scottish Borders residents = 6,682,894-8,219, People Councils Economy 1,915 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 91,861 annually 1,790 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 84,703 annually 2,830 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 152,459 annually 12,930 families receiving Child Benefit for 22,450 children will lose 3,064,126 ( 1,944,753 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,021,375 each year) 800 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 46,592 annually 2,460 Income Support recipients will lose 143,270 annually 3,250 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 184,935 annually Annual losses to Scottish Borders residents = 1,725,195

23 Total annual loss of 1,428,660-1,679,916 Shetland Islands More than 75% of 40 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 18,000 Total number of claimants (920) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 737,584 Total number of claimants (610) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 340, ,107 Annual losses to Shetland residents = 1,096,434-1,347, Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 9,925 annually 270 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 12,776 annually 560 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 31,262 annually 2,645 families receiving Child Benefit for 4,835children will lose 652,285 ( 413,969 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 217,428 each year) 150 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 8,736 annually 350 Income Support recipients will lose 20,384 annually 530 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 31,714 annually Annual losses to Shetland residents = 332,226 Total annual loss of 11,395,907-13,492,454 South Ayrshire More than 75% of 1,710 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 776,000 Total number of claimants (7,460) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 5,787,621 Total number of claimants (5,070) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 2,844,145-4,940,693 Annual losses to South Ayrshire residents = 9,407,766-11,504,314 2,781Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 130,708 annually 2,510 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 118,773 annually 4,330 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 239,517 annually 12,885 families receiving Child Benefit for 21,310 children will lose 2,941,923 ( 1,867,307 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 980,641 each year) 1,020 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 59,405 annually 3,860 Income Support recipients will lose 224,806 annually 4,380 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 234,290 annually Annual losses to South Ayrshire residents = 1,988,140 People Councils Economy 23

24 Total annual loss of 34,005,697-40,369,482 South Lanarkshire More than 75% of 3,400 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 1,544,000 Total number of claimants (22,880) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 17,839,432 Total number of claimants (15,030) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 8,633,015-14,996,800 Annual losses to South Lanarkshire residents = 28,016,447-34,380,232 8,865 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 427,495 annually 7,630 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 361,052 annually 10,440 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 580,232 annually 39,575 families receiving Child Benefit for 64,910 children will lose 8,978,941 ( 5,699,203 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 2,992,980 each year) 3,170 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 184,621 annually 11,100 Income Support recipients will lose 646,464 annually 13,570 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 796,406 annually Annual losses to South Lanarkshire residents = 5,989, People Councils Economy Total annual loss of 7,210,428-8,528,493 Stirling More than 75% of 570 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 258,000 Total number of claimants (4,760) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 3,769,121 Total number of claimants (3,180) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 1,788,068-3,106,133 Annual losses to Stirling residents = 5,815,189-7,133,255 1,765 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 84,185 annually 1,410 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 66,721 annually 2,080 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 114,899 annually 10,165 families receiving Child Benefit for 17,620 children will lose 2,405,814 ( 1,526,936 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 801,938 each year) 680 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 39,603 annually 2,230 Income Support recipients will lose 129,875 annually 2,800 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 158,017 annually Annual losses to Stirling residents = 1,395,239

25 Total annual loss of 11,789,381-14,104,234 West Dunbartonshire More than 75% of 770 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 349,000 Total number of claimants (8,160) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 6,305,156 Total number of claimants (5,460) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 3,140,294-5,455,147 Annual losses to W. Dunbartonshire residents = 9,794,450-12,109,303 3,258 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 156,111 annually 2,760 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 130,603 annually 3,680 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 207,662 annually 11,835 families receiving Child Benefit for 19,170 children will lose 2,659,808 ( 1,688,287 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 886,603 each year) 1,290 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 75,130 annually 4,810 Income Support recipients will lose 280,134 annually 5,010 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 258,689 annually Annual losses to West Dunbartonshire residents = 1,994,931 Total annual loss of 17,454,316-20,638,268 West Lothian More than 75% of 1,870 claimants will be affected by total annual losses of approximately 849,000 Total number of claimants (12,160) will be cut by 20% leading to annual losses of 9,068,420 Total number of claimants (7,620) will be cut leading to annual losses in the range of 4,319,301-7,503,253 Annual losses to West Lothian residents = 14,236,722-17,420,674 4,837 Jobseekers Allowance recipients will lose 227,595 annually 3,280 Carers Allowance recipients will lose 155,210 annually 3,650 Attendance Allowance recipients will lose 199,576 annually 23,570 families receiving Child Benefit for 39,525 children will lose 5,438,628 ( 3,451,963 if CPI used) over the course of 3-year freeze (pro rata 1,812,876 each year) 1,400 Employment Support Allowance recipients will lose 81,536 annually 5,810 Income Support recipients will lose 338,374 annually 6,820 Incapacity Benefit recipients will lose 402,428 annually Annual losses to West Lothian residents = 3,217,594 People Councils Economy 25

26 Sources & Methodology Sources All figures contained in this report are drawn from the latest statistics from HM Treasury, HMRC, DWP, Audit Scotland and Nomis. The rates for the Retail Price Index (RPI) of 4.8% and Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 3.1% are those published by HM Treasury in August Pension calculations were made using the online calculator provided by NASUWT. Methodology The losses resulting from the change to CPI from RPI are calculated by uprating current benefit levels by moth measures and listing the difference. The losses are calculated by taking the number of LHA cases in each authority area and applying average LHA amounts. Losses relate to the removal of the 15 to 51% of cases and the impact on 79% of LHA cases affected by the change in percentile at which LHA rates are set. DLA reductions are based on the Government s plans to remove 20% of people from qualification through the introduction of a medical assessment. Losses relating to the migration from Incapacity Benefit to Employment Support Allowance are based on the findings from trials and pilot schemes that show that following a new medical test only one third of new claimants are able to qualify for a disability-linked benefit. A range of figures is supplied as the latest Government modelling, which historically underestimates the impact of changes, predicts that 23% of existing IB claimants will fail the medical and of those 30% will come off benefit altogether while the others will move to Jobseekers Allowance or other lower value benefit. 26 People Councils Economy