State Economic Scorecard

Transcription

1 A quarterly ranking of state economic performance February 2014 Oil Boom Leaving its Mark Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist The U.S. economy continues to show signs of improved momentum, with real GDP expanding 3.7% annualized in the second half of 2013, the best two-quarter pace in almost two years. While fiscal policy remains a drag and business investment has softened, the housing recovery is intact despite a soft patch, and consumer spending is gaining strength. Regionally, the state economic scorecard shows strength in states exposed to the energy boom, while states around the Mississippi are generally lagging. The housing market and auto sector are also having regional impacts. States with surging oil production North Dakota, Texas and Colorado top the rankings, and top quartile performers are concentrated in the western Midwest and down through Texas. Bottom-quartile performers are concentrated in the south, including a pair of Gulf States. Notably, states hardest hit by the housing downturn Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada have climbed out of the bottom quartile. Some manufacturing-intense states have also climbed the rankings in the past year, including Michigan and Indiana, while Illinois has shown improvement in recent quarters. Chart 1 Overall State Economic Performance A publication of BMO Capital Markets Economic Research Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist About the State Economic Rankings State rankings are derived from the weighted average number of standard deviations away from the 50-state average, across four indicators in each of four categories: Business conditions, labor market, housing market and state finances. Ordinal rankings (1-to-50) are presented for ease of interpretation. Rankings are based on the latest full quarter of available data for each indicator at the time of publication. Publication is quarterly, usually upon the availability of state labor market indicators and the Philadelphia Fed s coincident index. Table 1 State Economic Performance Summary (as of January 31, 2014) Change Business Labor Housing State State Rank q/q y/y Conditions Market Market Finances Weight: 35% 30% 15% 20% North Dakota South Dakota Texas Utah Minnesota Colorado Oregon Nebraska California Iowa Idaho Florida Massachusetts Washington Georgia Arizona South Carolina North Carolina New Hampshire Kansas Montana Michigan Wisconsin Hawaii Wyoming Delaware Indiana New York Maryland Vermont Oklahoma Pennsylvania West Virginia Missouri Nevada Virginia New Jersey Louisiana Maine Tennessee Mississippi Ohio Rhode Island New Mexico Connecticut Arkansas Illinois Alaska Alabama Kentucky

2 Page 2 of 6 February 2014 Business Conditions Business conditions continue to improve nationally, with real GDP growth averaging 3.7% in the second half of While inventories added heavily to growth, net exports and consumer spending have also acted as supports. Indeed, real exports were up a solid 5.4% y/y in Q4, while bankruptcies continue to fall. Conditions remain extremely favorable in Texas, North Dakota and Colorado, where the energy sector is driving well above-average growth. The Philadelphia Fed s coincident index, which is designed to track gross state product, is growing a robust 3.5%, 5.4% and 3.5% y/y in these three states respectively, well above the state median. Population growth is also strong, with North Dakota s 2.5% y/y increase topping the country in the fourth quarter. The Carolinas are seeing favorable business conditions, with the coincident index pegging growth near 4% y/y, while population growth is firm and bankruptcies well below average. California has almost climbed into the top quartile, a stark turnaround after an extremely difficult recession above-average population and export growth are helping, while bankruptcies have fallen to 0.7 per 1,000 people from nearly 2 at the height of the downturn. States in the Gulf area and Eastern Midwest are seeing the softest overall business conditions, with Alabama and Kentucky lagging the pack. Slow sub-1% growth and sluggish population trends are having a negative impact in this region. Illinois and Wisconsin are lagging in the Midwest, hampered by below-average population growth and a soft patch in exports after strength earlier in the recovery. Chart 2 Business Conditions Table 2 State Business Conditions Ranking Coincident State Rank Change Index Pop. Exports Bankruptcies q/q y/y (y/y % chng) (per 000 ppl) Weight: 40% 30% 10% 20% North Dakota Texas South Dakota South Carolina North Carolina Oregon Massachusetts Colorado Washington Utah Connecticut Hawaii California Arizona Wyoming Pennsylvania Delaware Florida New York Idaho Minnesota New Jersey New Hampshire Georgia Kansas Nebraska Oklahoma Maine Michigan West Virginia Iowa Indiana Montana Vermont Maryland Nevada Virginia Rhode Island Wisconsin Louisiana Missouri Mississippi Tennessee Ohio Illinois Arkansas New Mexico Alaska Kentucky Alabama Median of States:

3 Page 3 of 6 February 2014 Labor Markets Despite a disappointing December payrolls result, the U.S. labor market continues to show signs of improvement. Nonfarm payroll growth clocked in at more than 200k in 3 of the last 5 months of 2013, and finished the year a decent 1.6% above year-ago levels. The jobless rate also continues to fall, hitting 6.7% in December, the lowest since October North Dakota continues to boast the nation s tightest labor market, with employment growth more than twice the state median, hours and Table 3 earnings on the rise and the jobless rate below 3% this has all the markings of an energy boom. Texas and Colorado are also topquartile states with exposure to the energy State Labor Market Ranking sector. Minnesota is posting an impressive performance, with aboveaverage employment and earnings growth, and one of the lowest jobless rates in the country at 4.7%. The state has jumped 10 spots in the ranking over the past year. Florida has surged into the top quartile, with employment up a solid 2.5% y/y in the fourth quarter and the jobless rate falling to 6.4% that s close to the state median, but down impressively from more than 11% at the height of the recession. Nevada, however, continues to lag the housing recovery has helped drive a meaningful improvement in the jobless rate, but it remained the 2 nd highest in America at 9.0% in Q4. Illinois also has challenging labor market conditions, but has seen some relative improvement in recent quarters. Job growth was a decent 1.1% y/y in Q4, but hours worked were little changed and the jobless rate, at 8.7%, was the third highest in America behind Nevada and Rhode Island. Chart 3 Labor Markets Nonfarm Avg. Weekly Jobless State Rank Change Payrolls Hours Earnings Rate q/q y/y (y/y % chng) (%) Weight: 40% 10% 10% 40% North Dakota Utah Minnesota South Dakota Iowa Florida Texas Georgia New Hampshire Colorado Nebraska West Virginia Idaho Oregon Massachusetts Vermont South Carolina Wisconsin Indiana Maryland Louisiana Kansas Mississippi Hawaii Washington Montana Missouri New Mexico Michigan Pennsylvania North Carolina Arizona California Arkansas Oklahoma Delaware New York Tennessee Virginia Wyoming Maine Illinois Alabama New Jersey Nevada Ohio Rhode Island Kentucky Connecticut Alaska Median of States:

4 Page 4 of 6 February 2014 Housing Markets The housing market remains a key driver of the U.S. economic expansion. Despite softening conditions in the latter half of 2013, triggered by a jump in mortgage rates, most signs point to sustained improvement in the national housing market and residential construction activity. States hardest hit by the housing bust have made significant progress in the past year, with California, Arizona and Nevada now sitting in the top quartile. In fact, California now ranks right at the top, with FHFA Table 4 home prices up 14% y/y, the foreclosure rate falling impressively State Housing Market Ranking and housing starts rebounding to 85% above the 5-year average. Similar conditions exist in Arizona, where the supply of homes for FHFA sale has dwindled and prices are again rising at a strong clip. Rank Florida has also turned the corner after a deep recession, moving well up the ranking in the past year to an above-average position. The vacancy rate is still above the state median, as supply hasn t been worked down quite as fast as in California and Arizona. Michigan also deserves honorable mention. Southern states such as Mississippi, Arkansas and New Mexico sit at the low end of the ranking, with stagnant price trends and subdued homebuilding activity. Illinois continues to lag, and was one state caught up in the boom/bust cycle that had been slow to rebound. That appears to be changing, with the state moving sharply up the ranking in recent quarters. While the foreclosure rate remains uncomfortably high at 4.9% (Q3), price trends are improving, particularly in Chicago, and homebuilding activity has gathered strength. Improvement should continue as supply get worked down further. Chart 4 Housing Market Foreclosure Vacancy Housing State Change Prices Rate Rate Starts (y/y (% vs. q/q y/y % chng) (percent) 5-yr avg.) Weight: 40% 15% 15% 30% California North Dakota Colorado Arizona Minnesota Utah Montana Nevada Idaho Michigan Oregon Texas Washington Georgia Iowa Nebraska South Dakota Massachusetts Florida Kansas Wisconsin Hawaii Indiana Missouri Maryland Tennessee Delaware Oklahoma South Carolina North Carolina New York Ohio Virginia Wyoming Kentucky Alaska Illinois Vermont West Virginia Louisiana Rhode Island New Hampshire Pennsylvania New Jersey Connecticut Maine Alabama New Mexico Arkansas Mississippi Median of States:

5 Page 5 of 6 February 2014 State Finances Fiscal restraint remains a drag on the U.S. economy, but state finances have improved significantly over the past year. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers, nominal General Fund spending increases are pegged at a firm 3.8% for fiscal 2014, while enacted revenue measures point to a modest $2 billion tax reduction. The western Midwest region enjoys the most favorable fiscal conditions, led by Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa. These states sport high employment rates on which to fund expenditures, strong fund balances and negligible pension liabilities. Ohio has made impressive strides recently, nearing the top quartile after addressing its pension shortfall and seeing double-digit growth in tax receipts. The State is now in a position to cut personal income taxes by $1.6 billion in fiscal Connecticut, Kentucky and West Virginia are underperforming, weighed down by sluggish growth in tax receipts, low employment rates and elevated pension liabilities. Illinois garners most of the attention with respect to fiscal challenges, and the state ranks in the bottom quartile. Pension liabilities are the biggest issue, with Moody s latest estimate pegging the shortfall at nearly 20% of GDP, behind only Alaska. The good news is that steps have been taken to address the shortfall, and tax receipts are on the rise again, taking some strain off the budget. Still total balances at the end of FY2013 were small at just 0.5% of spending (versus the 8.2% state median), leaving little fiscal wiggle room. Chart 5 State Finances Table 5 State Finances Ranking Net 2 Tax Employ. Total 1 Pension State Rank Change Receipts Rate Balances Liabilities (y/y (% of (% of q/q y/y % chng) (%) spending) GDP) Weight: 20% 20% 30% 30% Nebraska South Dakota Iowa Utah North Dakota Wyoming Kansas Minnesota New Hampshire Wisconsin Delaware Virginia Alaska Ohio Idaho New York California Oregon Montana Colorado Texas North Carolina Michigan Georgia Washington Florida Missouri Arizona Indiana Nevada Maryland Vermont Tennessee Oklahoma Massachusetts Rhode Island South Carolina Maine Alabama Arkansas New Mexico New Jersey Pennsylvania Hawaii Mississippi Louisiana Illinois West Virginia Kentucky Connecticut Median of States: Includes ending balance and rainy day funds (FY2013); Source: NASBO 2 Moody s Adjusted Net Pension Liability (FY2011, reported June 2013)

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