Guinea.

Transcription

1 Guinea

2 Guinea The economy expanded 4% in 2011 and is expected to grow slightly faster in 2012 (5.1%) and 2013 (5.5%). But this depends on the success of the democratic transition, national reconciliation and structural reforms. Reforms to stabilise the economy continue slowly, with tighter monetary and budget policy, helped by solid mining activity and revived agricultural production. A third of young Guineans are jobless. Political instability, recent slower economic growth, inadequate policies to help young people and the gap between their training and the economy s needs have helped worsen unemployment and under-employment among them. Overview After years of heavy-handed government and political instability, Alpha Condé was elected president in December 2010, but the social and political climate is still tense, with disagreement about further elections and financial and logistical problems. Additional friction in the army led to an attempt to kill the president on 19 July Legislative elections have now been set for 8 July Despite all this, the economy advanced in 2011, with real gross domestic product (GDP) up 4%, thanks to revived agriculture, better mining output and a robust construction sector, after the return to constitutional government. Growth should hold in the short term and be 5.1% in 2012 and 5.5% in Inflation remained very high in 2011 (21.2%) despite a strict budget policy and continuing efforts to curb credit. It should drop to 16.7% in 2012 and 10.1% in Public finance management is based on the principle of a single account and cash-based budget execution. The budget deficit was fairly high (13.8% of GDP in 2011) even with a tight budget policy. This strictness significantly reduced current spending (to 17.7% of GDP), while total revenue increased slightly (to 16.9% of GDP) due to better tax collection. The budget deficit should continue to shrink in the short term, to 8.1% of GDP in 2012 and 6.6% in To mop up excess liquidity and to slow growth of the money supply, the central bank (BCRG) in 2011 increased the required minimum reserve rate for banks and their intervention rate to 22%. The country s foreign exchange reserves were the equivalent of 5.4 months of imports. Guinea has a young population like all African countries, with more than 74% of the population aged below 35. Unemployment is mainly urban and especially affects graduates and those between 20 and 29. In the capital, Conakry, and major towns, more than two-thirds of higher education graduates under 30 are unemployed. This is partly due to a lack of government jobs and few opportunities in the formal private sector and has been aggravated by political instability, slower economic growth and inadequate policies to help young people, among other factors. 2 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

3 Figure 1: Real GDP growth (Western) 10% 8% Real GDP Growth (%) 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Real GDP growth (%) Western Africa - Real GDP growth (%) Africa - Real GDP growth (%) Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. Table 1: Macroeconomic Indicators Real GDP growth Real GDP per capita growth CPI inflation Budget balance % GDP Current account % GDP Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. 3 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

4 Recent Developments & Prospects Table 2: GDP by Sector (percentage of GDP) Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries - - of which agriculture - - Mining and quarrying of which oil - - Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Electricity, water and sewerage - - Construction Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants of which hotels and restaurants - - Transport, storage and communication Transport and storage, information and communication - - Finance, real estate and business services - - Financial intermediation, real estate services, business and other service activities 0 0 General government services Public administration & defence; social security, education, health & social work - - Public administration, education, health - - Public administration, education, health & other social & personal services - - Other community, social & personal service activities - - Other services Gross domestic product at basic prices / factor cost Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants - - Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. Most sectors of the economy are gradually improving, despite a precarious social and political situation. Real GDP growth was put at 4% in 2011, mainly due to agriculture and continued investment in mining. The country s economy is dominated by the primary sector, especially agriculture. Construction contributed only 11.7% of GDP in 2011 and industry 7.5%. The primary sector represented 26% of GDP in 2011, employing more than 80% of the working population, and was expected to grow 3.9% in 2012 (+4.5% for fisheries and +4.1% for agriculture). Food crops were set to increase 11% in the 2011/12 harvest (up from 10% in 2010/11) because of more irrigated land and greater use of intrants. With the revival of cotton, cash-crop exports were expected to increase 14.8% by volume, including cocoa (+22.7%) and coffee (+10.6%). 4 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

5 The secondary sector accounted for an estimated 32.7% of GDP, due to good performances by manufacturing and construction. Results in mining and quarrying were very mixed. Alumina production was up 3% and bauxite 9.6% because of greater output capacity and strong demand from emerging countries such as China and India. But gold production fell sharply (36.5%) as did diamond production (24.3%). Electricity production was down 12%, gas 2.2% and water up 1.7%. These levels did not alleviate the energy deficit that could undermine growth prospects. Higher electricity production in 2012 is vital to bolster the secondary and tertiary sectors. Despite the sharp depreciation of the Guinean franc (GNF) in 2011 against the main trading currencies, cement production rose 25.9% and paint products 8%, because of higher demand by the construction industry. Major investment is under way in mining, notably by Global Alumina (in partnership with BHP-Billiton) for USD 4.5 billion, the Dian-Dian project (with Rusal) (USD 4 billion) and building an alumina plant at Kamsar (Alcoa/Rio Tinto) (USD 1 billion). Investment to boost electricity production and distribution involves new generators to supply continuous current to Conakry and other big towns. Major projects are also ongoing to increase access to clean water. The tertiary sector provided an estimated 36.7% of GDP in 2011 (up 0.5 percentage points), partly due to growth in commerce and transport. As the economy and the political climate slowly improve and confidence is restored, real GDP is predicted to rise 5.1% in 2012 and 5.5% in Government investment should increase in 2012 thanks to higher revenue from mining and a gradual resumption of external funding. But overall prospects are still seriously hampered, notably by insufficient energy supply and the resulting cautious business climate. 5 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

6 Macroeconomic Policy Fiscal Policy The government s chief macroeconomic goals in 2011 were to stabilise the economy, curb inflation and reduce the budget deficit to below 2% of GDP, backed by a tighter monetary policy and the rebuilding of exchange reserves. This should be a basis for talks on a formal economic policy supported by the International Monetary Fund s Extended Credit Facility. Guinea adopted a strict budget policy in 2011 to stabilise the economy and foster sustained growth, including tight management of public finances by matching available revenue with essential and productive spending. The basic programme agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) included targets of increasing government revenue by 5% and reducing the budget deficit to 2% of GDP. As part of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) extended to 2011/12, the government plans to revive and broaden its action under the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) as a tool for planning and modern budget management. Efforts to boost public-revenue collection were encouraging but not enough. Revenue increased to 16.9% of GDP in 2011 as a result of major steps by the government. Public finance management was based on a singleaccount method, cash-based budget execution, restoring automatic adjustment of oil product prices and better monitoring of revenue collected. The government s efforts reduced current spending from 20.5% of GDP in 2010 to 17.7% in 2011, but capital expenditure rose. The improvement in budget aggregates was due to curbs on government spending and staff levels that produced major savings, helped by a treasury committee set up to monitor spending. A fairly large part of the budget deficit was funded by delayed payment of debt service arrears. Despite weak institutions and slow structural reforms, the budget deficit should drop from 13.8% of GDP in 2011 to 8.1% in 2012, broadly in line with the targets of the basic programme with the IMF. But the still-precarious political situation and the slowness of structural and institutional reforms are obstacles to effectively implementing budget policy. Table 3: Public Finances (percentage of GDP) Total revenue and grants Tax revenue Oil revenue Grants Total expenditure and net lending (a) Current expenditure Excluding interest Wages and salaries Interest Primary balance Overall balance Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. Monetary Policy Guinea along with Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Gambia belongs to the West African Monetary 6 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

7 Zone (WAMZ), which is planning to introduce a common currency. The BCRG s stricter monetary policy in 2011 aimed to correct imbalances curbing growth of the money supply, reducing inflation and stabilising the exchange rate. To mop up excess liquidity in the economy and to slow growth of the money supply, in March the BCRG increased the required minimum reserve rate for banks to 22% (from 17%) and their intervention rate also to 22% (from 16.7%). The money supply grew an average 15% in 2011 (down from 58% in 2010) due to higher net external assets and a sharp drop (44.5%) in net internal assets. Credit circulation fell 12% along with its share of the wage bill. The government also restored its foreign exchange reserves, notably with payments from economic operators such as mining companies, and these were the equivalent of 5.4 months of imports in The BCRG aimed to slow the depreciation of the Guinean franc while reducing liquidity, and these steps improved the bank s reserves position and made the exchange market less erratic. Inflation is imported and mostly generated by the BCRG s extra funding of the deficit. Despite credit restriction and budgetary discipline, it remained very high, at an estimated 21.2% in 2011, but monetary and budget restrictions and cheaper transport of food and oil imports should reduce it. The BCRG s chief monetary goals in should still be tight credit and budgetary discipline to boost efforts to curb growth of the money supply so as to control inflation and encourage renewed confidence in the banking system. Economic Cooperation, Regional Integration & Trade Guinea is a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), but despite its political intentions, geo-strategic position and ratification of all the Community s conventions, the country has been less active in regional integration because of its economic and political instability. Guinea wants to continue seeking inclusion in the global economy through the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The current account remained structurally in deficit in 2011 (8.3% of GDP) because of weak export growth and substantial imports of agricultural inputs and oil products. Current transfers rose, partly because of more remittances from Guineans abroad linked to higher demand for housing construction and participation in community development. The deficit should fall to 6.1% of GDP in 2012 and 6.2% in China and India remained Guinea s main export customers in China, France and the Netherlands accounted for more than half of all imports in The capital flow balance showed a surplus due to substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) with the return of political stability and an improved business climate. Table 4: Current Account (percentage of GDP) Trade balance Exports of goods (f.o.b.) Imports of goods (f.o.b.) Services Factor income Current transfers Current account balance Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. Debt Policy Guinea s public debt remains unsustainable, with a serious risk of over-indebtedness that rules out any new 7 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

8 debts. Most of it is external and was stable in 2011 due to the gradual resumption of ties with aid donors. About 65% of it was multilateral, with arrears amounting to 1.1% in Servicing the external debt cost an estimated USD 175 million (8% of GDP) equivalent to 11.8% of exports and 32% of government revenue. The external debt is a serious obstacle to development and the stability of public finances. Its management is co ordinated somewhat with other macroeconomic policies, but political instability and institutional weaknesses do not make this routine or effective. The government has continued its reforms after interim debt relief was halted because of accumulated arrears, and aims to reach completion point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in 2012 as well as getting extra debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). Figure 2: Stock of total external debt (percentage of GDP) and debt service (percentage of exports of goods and services) 125% 100% Percentage 75% 50% 25% 0% Debt/GDP Debt service/exports Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. 8 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

9 Economic & Political Governance Private Sector Guinea s private sector is still weak and undeveloped, even after more than two decades of reforms to create a market economy, and comprises firms mainly relying on foreign capital along with a profusion of informal enterprises with a fairly small turnover. Economic and political instability have been a big obstacle to private business, foreign capital has been lost, property destroyed and opportunities wiped out. The business environment and lack of reliable infrastructure and adequate services for a modern economy have discouraged investors. The sector s growth is also hampered by a serious energy shortage and a small domestic market, compared with the organised markets of other countries in the region. These factors limit making economies of scale. The World Bank s 2012 Doing Business report shows Guinea unchanged at 179th place among 183 countries for overall business conditions, though dropping two places for ease of starting a business. The government has taken steps to boost production and distribution of electricity in a bid to reduce structural and institutional weaknesses hindering private-sector growth. Major investment is under way, including an ambitious energy project by the Gambia River Basin Development Organisation (GRBDO) to build dams at Kaleta and Sambagalou. A new mining law adopted in 2011 was seen as unfair by some firms but it aims to encourage private enterprise and legally protect investors. The tripartite social-dialogue platform (government, employers and trade unions) is being strengthened to discuss major obstacles to investment. National bodies such as the chamber of commerce, industry and crafts and the employers federation, as well as a jobs and investments fair, are trying to improve the business climate. But they have had little real or visible impact because of accumulated structural and institutional impediments, such as poor business conditions, lack of funding and trained workers, and political instability. To attract foreign investors, the country needs a good and reliable electricity supply and better economic and political stability. Access to long-term credit, in a more integrated and harmonised sub-region, is also a key factor. The peaceful political transition and capacity building should help to improve the business climate and the private sector s access to credit in 2012 and Financial Sector Guinea s financial system comprises a dozen lending institutions, six insurance firms, thirteen microfinance institutions, three money-transfer companies and four currency exchange offices. Like the private sector, they have been badly affected by the social and political instability of recent years. The loss of capital by their private-sector partners and its spread to the banks (their natural source of funding) have blocked growth of the financial system. The central bank increased monitoring and regulation of banks and microfinance bodies in 2011 to boost the financial system so it could meet the growing general need for funding, especially among private firms. Microfinance continues to expand ever faster, with a net increase of deposits and loans, but the quality of its products remains mediocre, with doubtful debt accounting for 5% of loans. An average 17% of all its gross loans are outstanding. The banks played a leading role in funding the economy in 2011, but mostly provided short-term loans. The cost and availability of credit, especially medium- and long-term, remains a big obstacle to economic growth. The country s bank density is low. The ratio of loans to the economy to GDP remained steady, which shows the difficulty of getting investment loans, mainly due to short-term deposits and the central bank s monetary funding of the government budget deficit. Use of banks by the population is still low. A dozen banks have enough assets of their own to honour all prudential ratios. Despite the limited economic terrain, short-term prospects are good, Important mining and energy projects are under way and existing energy facilities are being modernised. New financial institutions will join the banking sector in the coming years and should boost the capacity to fund the economy. Political and economic stability are vital to attract and sustain investor interest. The emergence of new banks and strategic partnerships in the market will re energise the banking sector in 2012 and Public Sector Management, Institutions & Reform The public sector has suffered greatly from the country s lack of political and institutional stability, leading to bad economic and financial governance, worsening budget deficits and a deterioration of state authority. Along with efforts aimed at short-term stabilisation of the economy, major long-term structural reform has begun, 9 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

10 including reform of public services and a boost to government authority to strengthen the rule of law and encourage transparency. The government promised in 2011 to start broad reforms, including creation of a central state-reform office with the help of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), streamlining government bureaucracy and drafting an anti-corruption bill and a national good-governance plan. Economic governance is to be improved, infrastructure expanded, the security forces reformed and the civil service modernised and made more competent and effective as part of efforts to restore state authority and implement a priority action plan. The aim is to create transparent management of public finances in line with international norms and based on a substantial reduction in government spending and restored budgetary discipline. Public-service reforms should remedy administrative inertia and ensure the economy has regular supplies of energy and reliable and reasonably priced public services. Guinea joined the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in March 2011, which requires it to comply with new rules. The new mining law thus demands publication of the terms and conditions of new government contracts with mining firms. The government began in 2011 to restructure the army and security forces by reducing their excessive numbers and placing them in barracks. This will enable the army and police to be peaceful bodies serving democracy. Natural Resource Management & Environment Social, economic and political difficulties and pressure on public finances prevented the government in 2011 from implementing the national action plan for the environment (PNAE), and institutional capacity for doing so is small. Environmental protection issues include ever-increasing deforestation, with a significant reduction in dense forest causing serious soil erosion and reducing fertility and biodiversity. This may be worsened by climate change along the coastal plains, where increased flooding and soil salinisation could harm the country s food supply. Expansion of mining also increases the risk of pollution. Although environmental issues are not really an immediate priority or challenge, the new mining law requires companies to protect the environment, ensure the safety of the local population and efficiently deal with waste material, which must be minimal. It also encourages them to restore mining sites to protect animal and plant life. A national mining commission (Soguipami) supervises the granting of mining concessions and firms must set aside between 0.5% and 1% of their turnover for local communities and local development so the country can get a fair share of the extraction of its natural resources. Political Context After years of heavy-handed government and political instability, presidential elections were held in December 2010 and the subsequent fallout has undermined social and political stability ever since. The results, and the election of President Alpha Condé (of the Rassemblement du peuple de Guinea, RPG), were challenged by Condé s rival Cellou Diallo (Union des forces démocratiques de Guinea, UFDG). Despite the return to constitutional order, the situation deteriorated when the electoral process was halted. Strikes worsen and demonstrations erupted and ethnic tensions were exacerbated. Opposition protests calling for elections were harshly repressed on 27 September 2011, with several deaths, and social and political polarisation increased. After much argument and disputes about dates, the electoral commission reviewed the electoral law and problems of funding and logistics and set legislative elections for 8 July But the opposition said the date was not feasible and might be postponed. Relations between the government and the army are still tense because of plans to reorganise the army into a modern and more peaceful force, directed more towards economic and social development. This friction led to an attempt to kill the president in July Promotion of human rights in this context is problematic. The government plans short- and medium-term measures, chiefly setting up a human rights office, legalising gender equality and improving prison conditions, especially for women and children. The fate of the economy depends on whether there is a transition to democracy, and it is not yet clear whether this will happen. The quality of the politicians involved and the nature of negotiations between government and opposition will also decide the shape of politics in 2012 and AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

11 Social Context & Human Development Building Human Resources Guinea is a poor and vulnerable country despite its huge potential. Political instability, decaying institutions and inadequate economic and social policies have contributed to damaging the social and economic environment. The weakness of the country s human resources is a huge obstacle to development. All this has reduced the country s chances of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) by the target date of The UNDP s 2011 Human Development Index ranks Guinea 178 th out of 179 economies. Gross nationwide school enrolment was recently reported as 79%. Unemployment is especially bad in towns and cities and informal activity is becoming more widespread as a means of survival. Maternal mortality remains very high, at 980 for every live births (2005), though assisted births by trained people are becoming more common. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS is estimated at 1.5% of the population. Significant progress has been made in access to treatment however and the percentage of those seriously ill receiving antiretroviral drugs tripled from 22.5% (2007) to 66.7% (2009). Increasing energy supply remains a big challenge. Only 18.1% of the population has access to electricity, with major geographical disparities (68.9% in towns and only 2% in the countryside). The very small rural supply means inadequate social services there such as healthcare centres. Access to clean water and sanitation is improving. The programme for social cohesion and youth employment has enabled Guinea to collect employment statistics and design policies for job creation and setting up businesses. Six microfinance institutions are supporting 500 enterprises set up by people aged under 30. Poverty Reduction, Social Protection & Labour A household survey showed the number of people living below the poverty line rose from 49% in 2002 to 58% in This figure varies from one region to another and is higher in the countryside. Poverty could begin to decline if the new government keeps its promise to implement anti-poverty measures. Human resource deficiencies will become more critical as the government launches its recovery plan requiring substantial expertise by government officials. The very young population (74% are aged below 35) is a great challenge to the country s supply of education, healthcare and employment. Guinea has long had a social security system that offers health insurance, workplace accident or illness compensation, retirement and disability pensions, and insurance for the death of a family breadwinner. The national social security agency (CNSS) has financial problems but manages to pay these benefits more or less regularly. As a member of the International Labour Organization (ILO), Guinea has ratified various conventions on human rights, workers rights, vulnerable groups and especially the rights of children. The government has drafted a national employment focused on providing jobs for vulnerable groups and promoting vocational training that is better suited to the labour market. Through this policy, it is responding to the production sector s demand for a better-trained labour force and is trying to keep a balance between the need for social protection and job creation. Gender Equality Gender disparity varies in education, healthcare and political and public life. The five-year plan notes that promoting gender equality faces big obstacles, mainly weak institutions and co ordination, inadequate application of national gender policy and the lack of a funded programme to do so. No significant policy or programme promoting gender equality was launched in 2011, although Guinea has ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Some progress towards gender equality has been made in healthcare and education. The girl-boy ratio in primary schools advanced from 0.76 in 2005 to 0.92 in 2010 and in secondary schools from 0.45 to 0.59, though it was stable at 0.3 in universities. Major gender inequality is found in the working population and only 30% of salaried formal-sector jobs (except in agriculture) are held by women. Less than 20% of the last parliament were women and only 17% of top government officials are. 11 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA

12 Thematic analysis: Promoting Youth Employment Like all African countries, Guinea has a youth-unemployment problem. The population is relatively young, with more than 74% aged under 35, and is growing rapidly, by 3.2% a year. The current demographic transition makes finding work even harder, greatly increasing the number of young people on the jobs market and economic dependency. The problem is not well researched and the few studies done give only a part of the picture, usually with irregular and outdated figures. However, the overall data shows more than half of those under 30 are unemployed or under-employed. Joblessness is mostly urban and varies regionally, especially affecting the age group and particularly higher-education graduates. In Conakry and other cities, where most people look for work, more than twothirds of these graduates under 30 are unemployed. Also without jobs are 15% of youths who have completed secondary school and 42% of those with vocational qualifications. Unemployment is worse among female graduates. Political instability and slower economic growth, the weakness of policies aimed at tackling youth problems and the gap between training and the needs of the economy have exacerbated youth unemployment and underemployment. Unemployment is also made worse by the lack of public-sector jobs and not many opportunities in the small, formal private sector. Few prospects, lack of dialogue with support bodies and precarious living conditions are worsening joblessness problems accumulated over the years. Inadequate measures to deal with these challenges facing young people helps to increase the social and economic cost of development. Successive governments have tried to tackle the problem through programmes and action, including setting up a youth employment programme, a national office for vocational training, a youth employment support fund and a national youth forum. These aim to find jobs for graduates, provide easier access to vocational jobs for non-graduates and improve the productivity of young people in rural areas. But these national bodies and the strategies chosen have not been effective. The mixed results are partly explained by the lack of suitable policies and qualified people and the lack of proper funding. The decade-long youth development programme launched in 2010 needs to be reviewed to identify the most suitable projects to be implemented by Small and medium-sized firms are the main source of jobs, while state bodies, NGOs and international organisations hire very few young people. Under the regional programme for social cohesion and youth employment, several international bodies (such as the UNDP, the ILO and UNESCO) have helped Guinea design macroeconomic policies to create jobs and help young people get professional training. A report is being done to provide more information and give an idea of the job situation in Guinea. Agriculture, agro-industry and mining could be a very big source of direct and indirect youth employment and could help stem the exodus of young graduates abroad, especially to Europe and the United States. All the strategies to boost employment focus on these sectors, along with others that are attractive to young people, such as tourism, transport, information technology and modern craft industries. By creating jobs and broadening educational opportunities, rural areas could also become more attractive to young people and reduce the flow of people to the towns. This urban migration is a major problem the government must try to tackle to stop unemployment and under-employment rising in places like Conakry, Kankan, Boké and Labé. Joblessness can only be reduced by clearly identifying obstacles in the labour market. Future action, funded by the government, must take account the national situation and the socio-demographic category of the young people targeted. 12 AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA