The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
|
|
- Roy Grant
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments January 31, 2014 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) Note from dshort : This commentary has been revised to include the December Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. Thiscommittee statementis about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are: Industrial Production Real Personal Income(excluding transfer payments) Nonfarm Employment Real Retail Sales (a timelier substitute for Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales) The Latest Indicator Data The December month-over-month Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments came in at a disappointing -0.21% (-0.2% rounded to one decimal). The year-over-year change is % (rounded to -2.5%). However, the YoY metric is radically skewed by the December 2012 end-of-year taxplanning strategy whereby income was captured in 2012 to avoided expected tax increases. The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the Big Four and simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession. The data points show the percent cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June The latest data points are for the Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 54th month. In addition to the four indicators, I've included an average of the four, which, as we can see, was influenced by the anomaly in the Personal Income tax management strategy at the end of last year with a ripple effect in the opening months of this year. Current Assessment and Outlook The overall picture of the US economy remains one of a ploddingly slow recovery from the Great Recession. As we can see in the illustration of the average of the Big Four off its all-time high since 2007, the rate of post-trough growth has been slower since February of 2012, although the 2012 endof-year tax-strategy has obscured overall trend slope over the past two years. On a more hopeful note, the slope from last July through November showed encouraging improvement, although the December numbers have been collectively flat. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 My next update will cover the all-important February Nonfarm Payrolls report for January. Background Analysis: The Big Four Indicators and Recessions The charts above don't show us the individual behavior of the Big Four leading up to the 2007 recession. To achieve that goal, I've plotted the same data using a "percent off high" technique. In other words, I show successive new highs as zero and the cumulative percent declines of months that aren't new highs. The advantage of this approach is that it helps us visualize declines more clearly and to compare the depth of declines for each indicator and across time (e.g., the short 2001 recession versus the Great Recession). Here is my own four-pack showing the indicators with this technique. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Now let's examine the behavior of these indicators across time. The first chart below graphs the period from 2000 to the present, thereby showing us the behavior of the four indicators before and after the two most recent recessions. Rather than having four separate charts, I've created an overlay to help us evaluate the relative behavior of the indicators at the cycle peaks and troughs. (See mynotebelow on recession boundaries). Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 The chart above is an excellent starting point for evaluating the relevance of the four indicators in the context of two very different recessions. In both cases, the bounce in Industrial Production matches the NBER trough while Employment and Personal Incomes lagged in their respective reversals. As for the start of these two 21st century recessions, the indicator declines are less uniform in their behavior. We can see, however, that Employment and Personal Income were laggards in the declines. Now let's look at the period, which included three recessions -- the savage 16-month Oil Embargo recession of and the double dip of 1980 and (6-months and 16- months, respectively). Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 And finally, for sharp-eyed readers who can don't mind squinting at a lot of data, here's a cluttered chart from 1959 to the present. That is the earliest date for which all four indicators are available. The main lesson of this chart is the diverse patterns and volatility across time for these indicators. For example, retail sales and industrial production are far more volatile than employment and income. Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 History tells us the brief periods of contraction are not uncommon, as we can see in this big picture since 1959, the same chart as the one above, but showing the average of the four rather than the individual indicators. Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 The chart clearly illustrates the savagery of the last recession. It was much deeper than the closest contender in this timeframe, the Oil Embargo recession. While we've yet to set new highs, the trend has collectively been upward, although we have that strange anomaly caused by the late 2012 tax-planning strategy that impacted the Personal Income. Here is a close-up of the average since Page 8, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 Appendix: Chart Gallery with Notes Each of the four major indicators discussed in this article are illustrated below in three different data manipulations: 1. A log scale plotting of the data series to ensure that distances on the vertical axis reflect true relative growth. This adjustment is particularly important for data series that have changed significantly over time. 2. A year-over-year representation to help, among other things, identify broader trends over the years. 3. A percent-off-high manipulation, which is particularly useful for identifying trend behavior and secular volatility. Industrial Production The US Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is the oldest of the four indicators, stretching back to The log scale of the first chart is particularly useful in showing the correlation between this indicator and early 20th century recessions. Page 9, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
10 Page 10, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
11 Page 11, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
12 Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments This data series is computed as by taking Personal Income (PI) less Personal Current Transfer Receipts (PCTR) and deflated using the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI). I've chained the data to the latest price index value. The "Tax Planning Strategies" annotation refers to shifting income into the current year to avoid a real or expected tax increase. Page 12, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 Page 13, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
14 Page 14, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
15 For a visual sense of the relative size of Personal Income and Transfer Receipts (Social Security, etc.), here is stacked area chart of nominal values. Many people assume that Transfer Receipts (Payments) are a larger source of income than they really are. Total Nonfarm Employees There are many ways to plot employment. The one referenced by the Federal Reserve researchers as one of the NBER indicators is Total Nonfarm Employees (PAYEMS). Page 15, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
16 Page 16, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
17 Page 17, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
18 Real Retail Sales This indicator is a splicing of the discontinued retail sales series (RETAIL, discontinued in April 2001) spliced with the Retail and Food Services Sales (RSAFS) and deflated by the Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL). I used a splice point of January 1995 because that was date mentioned in the FRED notes. My experiments with other splice techniques (e.g., 1992, 2001 or using an average of the overlapping years) didn't make a meaningful difference in the behavior of the indicator in proximity to recessions. I've chained the data to the latest CPI value. Page 18, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
19 Page 19, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
20 Page 20, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
21 Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales This indicator is a splice of two seasonally adjusted series tracked by the BEA. The component is SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) based and the 1997-present is NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) based. The data are available from thebea website. See Section 0 - Real Inventories and Sales and look for Tables 2AU and 2BU. The FRED economists use the Real Retail Sales above for their four-pack. However, ECRI appears to use this series as their key indicator for sales. Note that the Manufacturing and Trade Sales data is updated monthly with the BEA's Personal Consumption and Expenditures release, but the numbers lag by one month from the other PCE data. Page 21, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
22 Page 22, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
23 Page 23, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
24 Note : I represent recessions as the peak month through the month preceding the trough to highlight the recessions in the charts above. For example, the NBER dates the last cycle peak as December 2007, the trough as June 2009 and the duration as 18 months. The "Peak through the Period preceding the Trough" series is the one FRED uses in its monthly charts, as explained in thefred FAQsillustrated in thisindustrial Production chart. Page 24, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment September 6, 2013 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) Note from dshort : This commentary has been revised to include the today's Nonfarm
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments May 31, 2013 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) Note from dshort : This commentary has been revised to include
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: September Real Retail Sales
The Big Four Economic Indicators: September Real Retail Sales October 15, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: With the release of September Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in October
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in October November 29, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: December Nonfarm Employment
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Nonfarm Employment January 4, 2019 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down 0.1% in January
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down 0.1% in January February 15, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the January
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.3% in September
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.3% in September October 16, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the September
More informationThe Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.3% in December, New High
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.3% in December, New High January 18, 2019 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The Big Four update has been delayed due to the government
More informationVisualizing GDP: An Inside Look at the Q3 ThirdEstimate
Visualizing GDP: An Inside Look at the Q3 ThirdEstimate December 24, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the Q3 2018 Third Estimate
More informationReal Disposable Income Per Capita Gains in November
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Gains in November December 22, 2017 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives With the release of this morning's report on November Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can
More informationReal Disposable Income Per Capita in May
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in May July 2, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives With the release of last week's report on May Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look
More informationJanuary Jobs Report: 200K New Jobs, Better Than Forecast
January Jobs Report: 200K New Jobs, Better Than Forecast February 2, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives This morning's employment report for January showed a 200K increase in total nonfarm
More informationECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLI Bouncing Back
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLI Bouncing Back April 5, 2019 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index
More informationTwo New Indexes Offer a Broad View of Economic Activity in the New York New Jersey Region
C URRENT IN ECONOMICS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Second I SSUES AND FINANCE district highlights Volume 5 Number 14 October 1999 Two New Indexes Offer a Broad View of Economic Activity in the New
More informationECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update July 5, 2013 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.4, down slightly
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 451 GDP Revision, Unemployment Reporting Inconsistencies. June 28, 2012
COMMENTARY NUMBER 451 GDP Revision, Unemployment Reporting Inconsistencies June 28, 2012 Revised First-Quarter GNP Growth Plunged to 0.5% (Previously 1.3%) Actual Monthly Change in U.S. Unemployment Rate
More informationECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Inches Up
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Inches Up August 26, 2016 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute)
More informationSPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012
SPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012 Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income
More informationECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update July 19, 2014 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.2, down from
More informationWeekly Unemployment Claims: Up 7K, Worse Than Forecast
Third Party Research November 3, 2016 Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 7K, Worse Than Forecast eresearch Corporation is pleased to provide an article by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives. Ms. Mislinski
More informationJanuary Jobs Report: 304K New Jobs, Surprises Forecast
January Jobs Report: 304K New Jobs, Surprises Forecast February 1, 2019 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives This morning's employment report for January showed a 304K increase in total nonfarm payrolls,
More informationECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update July 13, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 148.5, up
More informationMichigan Consumer Sentiment: November Preliminary Mostly Unchanged
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: November Preliminary Mostly Unchanged November 9, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for November came
More informationECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update May 23, 2014 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.1, down from
More informationMichigan Consumer Sentiment: August Final Remains Low
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: August Final Remains Low August 31, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for August came in at 96.2, down 1.7
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 460 FOMC, June Construction, Disposable Income, PCE Deflator. August 1, 2012
COMMENTARY NUMBER 460 FOMC, June Construction, Disposable Income, PCE Deflator August 1, 2012 Fed Action Appears to Be on Hold for Systemic-Solvency Crisis Construction Spending Still Bottom-Bouncing Disposable
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 415 Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales. January 27, 2012
COMMENTARY NUMBER 415 Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales January 27, 2012 Net of Involuntary Inventory Build-Up, GDP Growth Was 0.8% Instead of 2.8% Durable Goods Orders and New
More informationEconomic Outlook and Forecast
Economic Outlook and Forecast Stefano Eusepi Research & Statistics Group January 2017 All views expressed are those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
More informationECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: YoY Down for 7th Week
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: YoY Down for 7th Week January 5, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 462 June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit. August 9, Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience
COMMENTARY NUMBER 462 June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit August 9, 2012 Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience Trade Data Place Upside Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP Revision Consumer Credit
More informationEconomic recovery dashboard
CURRENT AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2009 Economic recovery dashboard Summary of current state Market indicators Most indicators changed little over the previous month. VIX increased, closing the month at 30.69,
More informationMichigan Consumer Sentiment: March Preliminary Exceeds Expectations
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: March Preliminary Exceeds Expectations March 16, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for March came in
More informationMultiple Choice Questions Solutions are provided directly when you do the online tests.
SOLUTIONS Multiple Choice Questions Solutions are provided directly when you do the online tests. Numerical Questions 1. Nominal and Real GDP Suppose than an economy consists of only types of products:
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET ENVIRONMENT THIRD QUARTER 2018
ECONOMIC AND MARKET ENVIRONMENT THIRD QUARTER 2018 THE FIRM S OUTLOOK: SUMMARY ANDCONCLUSION THE ECONOMY» Broadly speaking, the U.S. economy is in very good shape. Growth is faster than it has been in
More informationThe Conference Board U.S. Business Cycle Indicators SM U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR MAY 2007
Brussels Copenhagen Frankfurt Hong Kong London Mexico City New Delhi Ottawa New York Chicago San Francisco Washington FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. ET, THURSDAY, JUNE 21, 2007 The Conference Board U.S. Business
More informationPhases of the Business Cycle. Business Cycle. Business Cycle
Phases of the Business Cycle Business Cycle Definition: alternating increases and decreases in the level of business activity of varying amplitude and length How do we measure increases and decreases in
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY LESSON 1 DISCOVER HOW THE WORLD REALLY WORKS ASX Schools Sharemarket Game THE ASX CHARTS
SUPPLEMENTARY LESSON 1 THE ASX CHARTS DISCOVER HOW THE WORLD REALLY WORKS 2015 ASX Schools Sharemarket Game The ASX charts When you spend time discovering a company s story and looking at company numbers
More informationQE2 in Five Easy Pieces
QE2 in Five Easy Pieces James Bullard President and CEO, FRB-St. Louis High Profile Speaker Series 8 November 2010 NYSSA, New York City Any views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect
More informationRelative Rotation Graphs (RRG Charts)
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG Charts) Introduction Relative Rotation Graphs or RRGs, as they are commonly called, are a unique visualization tool for relative strength analysis. Chartists can use RRGs
More informationSUBJECT: PRELIMINARY NOVEMBER 2011 ECONOMIC FORECAST
October 26, 2011 STATE OF WASHINGTON ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL - 34-1560 TO: FROM: Governor s Council of Economic Advisors Arun Raha, Executive Director Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
More information2017 MORTGAGE MARKET OUTLOOK: EXECUTIVE ECONOMIC REPORT JANUARY 2017
2017 MORTGAGE MARKET OUTLOOK: EXECUTIVE ECONOMIC REPORT JANUARY 2017 1 2017 FORECAST OVERVIEW For the 2017 housing market, the outlook is generally positive. The long recovery from the elevated delinquency
More informationMarket Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past March 7, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest
More informationThe Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)
June 2008 Gad Levanon, Senior Economist, The Conference Board The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) Introduction The Conference Board produces respected indexes of economic indicators like
More informationThe Investors Newsletter
I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E 1 Perspectives 2 Summary of Indexes 3 Fundamentals & Indicators 4 Index Chart & Analysis economic reports from the past quarter are not indicating the push into higher prices
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
July 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Picked Back Up Again
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 358 February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3. March 17, 2011
COMMENTARY NUMBER 358 February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3 March 17, 2011 Economy Slumps Anew as Inflation Soars Fed s Dollar Debasement Efforts Begin to Yield Their
More informationMarket Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past July 3, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly
More informationEconomic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective
Economic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective White Paper RecessionProtect.com Whilst history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, so the saying goes.
More informationInflation Targeting and Revisions to Inflation Data: A Case Study with PCE Inflation * Calvin Price July 2011
Inflation Targeting and Revisions to Inflation Data: A Case Study with PCE Inflation * Calvin Price July 2011 Introduction Central banks around the world have come to recognize the importance of maintaining
More informationThe Conference Board U.S. Business Cycle Indicators SM U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR JANUARY 2008
Brussels Copenhagen Frankfurt Hong Kong London Mexico City New Delhi Ottawa New York Chicago San Francisco Washington FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. ET, THURSDAY, February 21, 2008 The Conference Board U.S. Business
More informationQ4 Household Net Worth: The "Real" Story
Q4 Household Net Worth: The "Real" Story March 8, 2019 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives Note: With the March release of the Federal Reserve's Z.1. Financial Accounts of the United States for Q4
More informationThe Conference Board U.S. Business Cycle Indicators SM U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR NOVEMBER 2007
Brussels Copenhagen Frankfurt Hong Kong London Mexico City New Delhi Ottawa New York Chicago San Francisco Washington FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. ET, THURSDAY, December 20, 2007 The Conference Board U.S. Business
More informationADVANCE COMMENTARY NUMBER 930-A. December Labor, Private Surveying and M3, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending January 5, 2018
ADVANCE COMMENTARY NUMBER 93-A December Labor, Private Surveying and M3, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending January 5, 28 Annual Household Survey Revisions Were Negligible for Headline U.3,
More informationCurrent Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts
Order Code RL30329 Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts Updated May 20, 2008 Gail E. Makinen Economic Policy Consultant Government and Finance Division Current Economic Conditions and Selected
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 459 Second-Quarter GDP, Annual GDP Revisions. July 28, GDP Revisions Showed a Later Full Recovery with Shifted Growth Patterns
COMMENTARY NUMBER 459 Second-Quarter GDP, Annual GDP Revisions July 28, 2012 GDP Revisions Showed a Later Full Recovery with Shifted Growth Patterns Double-Dip Downturn Looms Velocity of Money (M3) Is
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION
ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and
More informationImpact of changes in the National Accounts and Economic Commentary for 2011 quarter 2
Impact of changes in the National Accounts and Economic Commentary for 2011 quarter 2 Peter Patterson, Pete Lee and Malindi Myers Office for National Statistics Summary This article summarises the effects
More informationUnderstanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles October 7, 2016 by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research The word secular originates from a series of Latin words that mean an extended period of time or an era.
More informationMichigan Consumer Sentiment: October Final Slips
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: October Final Slips October 26, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for October came in at 98.6, down 1.5 from
More informationRetail Sales: April Increase, Below Expectations
Third Party Research May 12, 2017 Retail Sales: April Increase, Below Expectations eresearch Corporation is pleased to provide an article by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives. Ms. Mislinski looks
More informationChart 1: S&P 500 Death Crosses since 1923;
December 10th, 2018 1 Last week we had a death cross in the S&P 500 and the 3 year minus 5 year Treasury yield curve went negative (inverted). These two events had talking heads claiming everything from
More informationEconomic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q2 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a 3.1% rate, the highest quarterly growth rate since Q1 of 2015. Consumer spending
More informationSPECIAL REPORT: 1Q 2018 EARNINGS WRAP UP
By Jennifer Moore, CFA, Director of US Credit Research Strong growth continues Exhibit1: Sector results relative to expectations A fixed income perspective Negative Modest negative Neutral/mixed Modest
More informationChapter 8: Business Cycles
Chapter 8: Business Cycles Yulei Luo SEF of HKU March 27, 2014 Luo, Y. (SEF of HKU) ECON2102C/2220C: Macro Theory March 27, 2014 1 / 30 Chapter Outline What is a business cycle? The American business cycle:
More informationInflation Education. September Spear Street, Suite 950 San Francisco, CA Phone:
Inflation Education September 2014 150 Spear Street, Suite 950 San Francisco, CA 94105 Phone: 866-627-6984 DISCLAIMER The charts in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only. Individual clients
More informationU.S. Automotive Outlook
2004 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference September 19-22, 2004 Burlington, VT U.S. Automotive Outlook David P. Teolis Senior Economist North America Global Market & Industry Analysis Presentation
More informationDEPRESSION SPECIAL REPORT. Number 52. August 1, Current Economic Downturn Is Worst Since Great Depression
DEPRESSION SPECIAL REPORT Number 52 August 1, 2009 Current Economic Downturn Is Worst Since Great Depression Recession Started a Year Earlier Than Official Reckoning Business Contraction Triggered Systemic
More informationEQ: How Do Changes in AD and SRAS Affect Real GDP, Unemployment, & Price Level?
EQ: How Do Changes in and Affect So, what happens when changes? Increases in Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G), & Net Exports (X) will: Increase Total Expenditures ( TE) Increase
More informationLeading Economic Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach to Estimating Market Tail Risk
Leading Economic Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach to Estimating Market Tail Risk Sonu Vanrghese, Ph.D. Director of Research Angshuman Gooptu Senior Economist The shifting trends observed in leading
More informationEvaluating Popular Recession Indicators
Evaluating Popular Recession Indicators February 21, 2012 by Georg Vrba, P.E. Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 386 GDP Revision, July Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. August 26, 2011
COMMENTARY NUMBER 386 GDP Revision, July Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales August 26, 2011 Revised Second-Quarter GDP Change Remained Statistically Insignificant Could Have Been a Contraction as
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 363 Inflation, Retail Sales, Production. April 15, Real Monthly Retail Sales Fell by 0.2% in March
COMMENTARY NUMBER 363 Inflation, Retail Sales, Production April 15, 2011 Real Monthly Retail Sales Fell by 0.2% in March Fed s Dollar Debasement Has Boosted Quarterly CPI Inflation to More than 5% March
More informationGross Domestic Product Prior Reading Change Most Recent. Real GDP QoQ - Q4 (Final) 3.5% 2.1% Employment Market. March. Inflation.
1 st Quarter 17 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The U.S. economy grew by a lackluster 1.6% for the full year 16 its slowest pace since 11. While growth in the past year was a full percentage point lower than in 15,
More informationThe Mid-Year Economic Forecast. June 20, 2018
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast June 20, 2018 Agenda National Economy: On a Solid Footing Construction & Housing: Still Strong Risks: What Could Go Wrong? 2 National Economy On a Solid Footing 3 GDP Grew
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 776 November Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales December 23, 2015
COMMENTARY NUMBER 776 November Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales December 23, 2015 Net of Inflation and Commercial Aircraft Orders, November Durable Orders Were Stronger than the Headline Unchanged
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 603 January Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales February 27, Durable Goods Orders in Downturn
COMMENTARY NUMBER 603 January Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales February 27, 2014 Durable Goods Orders in Downturn Statistically Indistinguishable from January 2013, January 2014 5-1/2 Year High in New-Home
More informationProblem Set # 14. Instructions: Graph 1,
Problem Set # 14 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply in the Real World Overview: In this problem set, you will apply what you know about Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply to real world data. In a
More informationWestern New York ECONOMIC NEWS Richard J. Wehle School of Business Canisius College
Western New York ECONOMIC NEWS Richard J. Wehle School of Business Canisius College https://www.canisius.edu/academics/programs/economics/economics-wny-economic-news Volume 22, Number 1 January 2019 Nationally,
More informationPRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages 2017, Revised
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL 18-0333 8:30 a.m. (EST) Wednesday, March 7, 2018 Technical information: (202) 691-5606 Productivity@bls.gov www.bls.gov/lpc Media contact:
More informationWhere Is the Global Economy Going?
Key Points Where Is the Global Economy Going? July 28, 2018 by Vitali Kalesnik Michele Mazzoleni Jim Masturzo of Research Affiliates Investors are wise to look at more granular classifications of the business
More informationHas the Fat Lady Started to Sing on the Housing Market?
Has the Fat Lady Started to Sing on the Housing Market? May 30, 2013 by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group As decision makers we are continually looking for clues from economic activity in order
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 354 GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Tax Receipts, Political Crises. February 25, 2011
COMMENTARY NUMBER 354 GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Tax Receipts, Political Crises February 25, 2011 Safe-Haven Flight from Mounting Political Turmoil in North Africa and Mid-East Favors
More informationRevising the Texas Index of Leading Indicators By Keith R. Phillips and José Joaquín López
Revising the Texas Index of Leading Indicators By Keith R. Phillips and José Joaquín López We suggest changes to the that generally reflect the growing importance of services and globalization. Chart 1
More informationThe Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015
The Saturday Economist The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015 Leisure and Construction driving recovery UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 1 The UK recovery continues. We expect growth of
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
August 18 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Excellent Second Quarter Growth as Labor Market Continues
More informationWhat We Can Learn by Going Back to School
What We Can Learn by Going Back to School August 13, 2015 by Burt White of LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS Expectations for the back to school shopping season are low, and this season may only be flat versus
More informationRisk Insight. Does a flattening yield curve signal pain for the dollar? What are the chances... Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017.
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 Does a flattening
More informationIntroduction. Learning Objectives. Learning Objectives. Chapter 7. Explain how the U.S. government calculates the official unemployment rate
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy:, Inflation, and Deflation Introduction Why is it that the responsibility for announcing the start of economic contractions and expansions does not rest with elected officials?
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
May 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary With Job Market in Good Shape,
More informationE-322 Muhammad Rahman CHAPTER-3
CHAPTER-3 A. OBJECTIVE In this chapter, we will learn the following: 1. We will introduce some new set of macroeconomic definitions which will help us to develop our macroeconomic language 2. We will develop
More informationEconomics. Economic Growth Session 1
Economics Economic Growth Session 1 National Association of Credit Management Graduate School of Credit and Financial Management American University Washington, DC June 23, 2018 1 Business Cycles Stocks
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 599 January Retail Sales, Liquidity, Late Detail from Jobs Revision February 13, 2014
COMMENTARY NUMBER 599 January Retail Sales, Liquidity, Late Detail from Jobs Revision February 13, 2014 Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather Pattern of Collapsing
More informationBriefing Paper. Business Week Restates the Nineties. By Dean Baker. April 22, 2002
cepr Center for Economic and Policy Research Briefing Paper Business Week Restates the Nineties By Dean Baker April 22, 2002 Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 400
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 493 November Trade Deficit. January 11, Official Inflation-Adjusted Merchandise Trade Deficit Hit 4-1/2 Year High
COMMENTARY NUMBER 493 November Trade Deficit January 11, 2013 Official Inflation-Adjusted Merchandise Trade Deficit Hit 4-1/2 Year High Implications for Weaker Advance-Estimate of 4th-Quarter GDP Consumer
More informationThe Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001
The Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001 Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research Robert Hall, Chair Martin Feldstein, President, NBER Ben Bernanke Jeffrey Frankel Robert Gordon
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 331 Third-Quarter GDP, Quantitative-Easing Games, Homes Sales, New Orders. October 29, 2010
COMMENTARY NUMBER 331 Third-Quarter GDP, Quantitative-Easing Games, Homes Sales, New Orders October 29, 2010 Third-Quarter GDP Growth Statistically Indistinguishable from Zero Official Economic Activity
More informationThe NBER s Business-Cycle Dating Procedure
The NBER s Business-Cycle Dating Procedure Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research Robert Hall, Chair Martin Feldstein, President, NBER Jeffrey Frankel Robert Gordon Christina
More informationThe Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales
The Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales VV Chari, LJ Christiano and P Kehoe January 2, 27 In this note, we examine the findings of Gertler and Gilchrist, ( Monetary Policy, Business
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 724 April Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revision, Construction Spending June 3, 2015
COMMENTARY NUMBER 724 April Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revision, Construction Spending June 3, 2015 Benchmark Trade Revisions Were Relatively Small; Aggregate Nominal Deficit Deepened by 0.7% (-0.7%)
More information