Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?
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1 Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating? 2019 US Monetary Policy Forum Discussion February 22, 2018 Mary Daly President and CEO The views expressed here are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of anyone else in the Federal Reserve System.
2 Paper Overview Nice review of the empirical Phillips Curve literature Concludes that the Phillips Curve is still breathing Warns against complacency no free lunch But in an uncertain world how do we distinguish complacency from appropriate policy? Important to identify the wedges between theory and data and be vigilant on both sides of the target
3 Wage and Price PCs Have Flattened Slopes of Wage and Price Inflation Phillips Curves Source: Hooper, Mishkin, and Sufi (2019).
4 Fundamental laws of supply and demand have failed tighter labor markets don t drive wages, prices? or Why? There are various wedges clouding our view of the underlying (structural) relationship?
5 Theory, Data, and Wedges INTEREST RATES SPENDING + OUTPUT EMPLOYMENT WAGE INFLATION PRICE INFLATION
6 Reduced Form PCs May Not Tell the Story INTEREST RATES SPENDING + OUTPUT EMPLOYMENT WAGE INFLATION PRICE INFLATION DNWR Composition Declining bargaining power Unmeasured compensation
7 Reduced Form PCs May Not Tell the Story INTEREST RATES SPENDING + OUTPUT EMPLOYMENT WAGE INFLATION PRICE INFLATION DNWR Composition Declining bargaining power Unmeasured compensation Monetary policy Anchored expectations Decline in COLAs Concentration
8 The Regional Phillips Curves: Still Breathing Cross-MSA Slope of Wage Phillips Curve Cross-MSA Slope of Price Phillips Curve Note: Slack measured with unemployment gap. Source: Leduc and Wilson (FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017) and authors calculations. 8
9 But Few Signs Wage Inflation is Running Away Wage Growth Percent Pacific Overall Finance, Manufacturing High Skill, Mid Skill 3.0 West South Education and Health Low Skill Region Industry Occupation Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve Wage Growth Tracker. 9
10 Price PC: Housing Services Dominates Cross-MSA Slope of the Price Phillips Curve Unemployment Gap Unemployment Rate Total *** *** Rent *** *** Services (excl. Rent) * Non-Durables Durables Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 10
11 So if the PC is Alive, What s Ahead?
12 Wage Growth Slowly Ratcheting Up Note: Wage growth is the twelve-month moving average of the percent change in average hourly earnings over the last twelve months. Full-time wage growth is the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for usually full-time workers. 12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Federal Reserve Wage Growth Tracker.
13 Not Much Effect on Price Inflation
14 Cyclical Sectors Not Reacting to Hot Labor Markets Percent Core PCE Inflation and Contributions by Sector Source: Mahedy and Shapiro (FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017), Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation (FRBSF Indicator, 2019).
15 Healthcare Services Inflation: This Time is Different Percent Healthcare services inflation minus core PCE inflation
16 Inflation Expectations Matter More Now Coefficient on Lagged Inflation and Inflation Expectations Note: Specification uses headline CPI inflation. One-year ahead inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: Jordà, Marti, Nechio, and Tallman (FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019). 16
17 Inflation Has Been Low For A Long Time Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 17
18 Conclusion The Phillips curve remains a useful guide The effects of nonlinearities appear muted Need to be vigilant about upside and downside risks
19 Supplementary Figures
20 Little Evidence of Nonlinearities in Hot Labor Markets Cross-State Wage Phillips Curve Cross-MSA Price Phillips Curve Note: Slack measured with unemployment gap. Inflation measure on y-axis excludes regional and time fixed effects Source: Leduc, Marti, and Wilson (FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019) and authors calculations 20
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