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1 WARSAW 2014 Marcin Przasnyski
2 What is An independent stock market information company Publishing a portal and a weekly newspaper Approved by Polish Financial Supervision Authority Targetted to individual investors Monthly reach 120k users, daily reach 20k users Premium services: advanced analytical tools Newspaper circulation: 10k print, 50k digital Supporting IPOs, SPOs, investor relations Providing data solutions to corporate clients Cooperating with TVs, radios, newspapers and online media as a source of stock market data and opinions 2
3 and predicting bankruptcy Evangelizing the use of Altman Z -score since 2008 Providing calculation of Z -score and its bond rating equivalent for all listed companies, based on constantly updated and verified fundamentals Regular updates, comments, interpretation of Z -score, and in-depth analyzes of financial situation and financial performance of companies listed on stock and bond markets 3
4 Bankruptcies on WSE 74 public companies filed for bankruptcy since continue to operate under restructuring 35 are still traded on exchange [6 months legacy rule] Out of total as of 10th of June, stocks listed on regulated exchange 440 stocks in alternative system 497 bonds of 194 companies on bond exchange(s) 4
5 Bankruptcies by year Number of filings by year
6 Bankruptcies by top sectors 6
7 Z -score analysis Quarterly consolidated financial reports of 69 companies that filed for bankruptcy Updated with restatements and audits Calculation of Altman Z -score for every period Applying a Bond Rating Equivalent based on 2013 matrix 7
8 US Bond Rating Equivalents Based on Z -Score Model Z = X X X X 4 Rating Median 1996 Z -Score a Median 2006 Z -Score a Median 2013 Z -Score a AAA/AA (8) 7.51 (14) 8.80 (15) AA/AA (33) 7.78 (20) 8.40 (17) A (24) 7.76 (26) 8.22 (23) A 6.65 (42) 7.53 (61) 6.94 (48) A (38) 7.10 (65) 6.12 (52) BBB (38) 6.47 (74) 5.80 (70) BBB 5.85 (59) 6.41 (99) 5.75 (127) BBB (52) 6.36 (76) 5.70 (96) BB (34) 6.25 (68) 5.65 (71) BB 4.95 (25) 6.17 (114) 5.52 (100) BB (65) 5.65 (173) 5.07 (121) B (78) 5.05 (164) 4.81 (93) B 4.15 (115) 4.29 (139) 4.03 (100) B (95) 3.68 (62) 3.74 (37) CCC (23) 2.98 (16) 2.84 (13) CCC 2.50 (10) 2.20 (8) 2.57(3) CCC (6) 1.62 (-) b 1.72 (-) b CC/D 0 (14) 0.84 (120) 0.05 (94) c a Sample Size in Parantheses. b Interpolated between CCC and CC/D. c Based on 94 Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, Sources: Compustat, Company Filings and S&P. 8
9 Example Gant Development 7,00 6,00 5,00 Altman Z"-score and Bond Rating Equivalent for Gant Development BBB BBB BBB BB BB+ BB BB+ BB+ BB+ 4,00 3,00 2,00 CCC 1,00 0,00-1,00 D D Filing: 16 October
10 Altman Z -score tracking SAFE ZONE 5.75 GREY ZONE DISTRESS ZONE
11 Z -score accuracy in Poland Analysis of not safe scoring prior to filing 39 companies 36 months prior 57% 49 companies 24 months prior 71% 58 companies 12 months prior 84% accuracy 68 companies less than one quarter prior to filing 11
12 Z -score migration between zones 100% Distress Zone Grey Zone Safe Zone 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sample of 69 companies that filed for CH7 or CH11 since Timespan 12 quarters = three years prior to bankruptcy filing 12
13 Z -score zones: not safe vs. distress 100% 90% 80% Percentage of companies in grey or distress zone Percentage of companies in distress zone 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% months prior to bankruptcy filing
14 Type I and Type II errors Type I false positive 11 companies (16%) one year prior 1 company (< 2%) one quarter prior Type II false negative * 34% one year prior 3% three years prior 2% five years prior * sample of 391 stock listed companies on main market 14
15 Takeaways Altman Z -score proved a successful tool to differentiate companies listed in Poland in regard to their financial situation Mechanical calculations overreact to distress signals, and need adjustments for sector and company-specific circumstances Democratic tool, available to everyone for free Perfect in avoiding financially stressed companies Not sufficient for definite investment decisions Next step time for a model for Poland? 15
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