Great Plains General Business Index

Transcription

1 Great Plains General Business Index By Dr. Marvin Hankins, Director Business Development Center at Southwestern Oklahoma State University The Business Development Center in the School of Business at Southwestern Oklahoma State University has developed its Great Plains General Business Index (GPGBI) to measure the economic performance of thirteen individual counties in west-central and southwest Oklahoma. The GPGBI is a composite of coincident indicators which helps explain the present condition of the economy. It is hoped that the indices will provide a more meaningful understanding and analysis of the respective counties in the region. The strongest growing county in the region has been Jackson county (graph). From fourth quarter 1995 to fourth quarter, Jackson county has grown 9.6 percent, according to the Great Plains General Business Index for Jackson County. Seasonally adjusted employment grew nearly 18 percent for the same period. Those employment sectors most responsible for growth during this period were manufacturing (up 66%), government (up 33.75%), and services (up 18.3%). Nominal taxable sales, for Jackson county, grew 7.8 percent, which was noticeably better than other counties in the region. Inflation and seasonally adjusted average earnings increased 1.1 percent for the same period. If you have any questions or comments regarding the Great Plains General Business Index contact Dr. Marvin Hankins at (580) The Great Plains General Business Index is now on the internet at the following site: (See Graph on Page 2) Economic Indicators Oklahoma REA Labor Force 1,659,400 1,661,700 1,630,904 Employment 1,607,500 1,610,300 1,557,894 Unemployment 51,900 51,400 73,010 Rate 3.1% 3.1% 4.5% MSA Unemp Oklahoma City 2.4% 2.4% 3.7% Tulsa 3.1% 3.0% 3.4% Manufacturing Avg. Weekly Wages $ $ $ Avg. Hourly Wages $12.95 $12.61 $12.78 Avg. Hours Worked Consumer Price Index (CPI) % Change 99 Month Year US % 2.6% Local Office Statistics Total Benefits Paid $9,069,387 $7,201,402 Average Benefit Amount $ $ Job Openings Received (YTD) 24,707 24,030 App. Regist. for Work (YTD) 124, ,180 # of Individuals Placed (YTD) 10,678 10,370 Applicant Opening Ratio (YTD) Employers # of Employer Total (1st Qtr ) Units Employment Statewide 88,566 1,411,266 OKC MSA 28, ,419 Tulsa MSA 21, ,293 In This Issue... Feature Article 2 Statewide 5 Oklahoma City MSA 7 Tulsa MSA 8 Lawton MSA 9 Enid MSA 9 Labor Force Statistics 10 At A Glance 11 Economic Research and Analysis Division October

2 Feature Article Great Plains General Business Index for Jackson County Index Values Source: Business Development Center/ School of Business / Southwestern Oklahoma State University Oklahoma Black Gold by Lynn D. Gray, Economist with the Economic Research & Analysis Division of Oklahoma Employment Security Commission Economists will tell you that cartels have a tendency to fail. After production quotas are in place and after the expected price increases take effect individual members have a tremendous temptation to break the quota and sell more than they agreed to at the higher prices. The cartel cheaters can reap potentially huge profits until other members discover the violation and also start to cheat. At that point the price falls back to the true market level and the cartel ceases to function until the next agreement. This roller coaster ride pretty well describes the experiences of OPEC during the early to mid 1980 s and one major member of the group was very frustrated. In late 1985, Saudi Arabia, decided to stop playing the game and began to increase oil production. By early 1986 Saudi oil production was up from two million barrels per day to five million. The world price for oil collapsed. Before the advent of oil cartels and Middle East instability the oil industry in Oklahoma was on a slow down grade. From 1958 to 1972 the state oil and gas industry gave up over a quarter of its jobs. By 1986 though all those lost jobs were back and then some and although oil prices and oil employment were significantly off the highs of just a few years earlier they were still a great deal higher than in the early 1970 s. The decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production changed everything. 2 Economic Research and Analysis Division, October

3 Feature Article The graph below shows what occurred after 1986 in terms of both the price of oil and in mining jobs in the state. As you examine the graph note the following: First, see that the oil prices shown here are adjusted for inflation. Inflation, even as meager as it has been over the past few years, has a great impact on prices over time. Without the adjustment for inflation the price of oil today would seem just a little below the price in January of The adjustment shows just how low the oil prices of today (even with the recent up swing) have fallen. Also notice the spike in prices leading up to the Gulf War. The peak, although very short in duration, is the highest price in real terms since Also note the stability of the employment numbers recently, even during some dramatic price changes. This would seem to reflect both admirable efficiency and understandable caution on the part of the industry. Oklahoma Mining Employment & Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices Mining Jobs (in thousands) Oil Price ('86 Dollars) $35.00 $ $ $ $ $ $ to $0.00 Another way to understand the long-term price picture is to compare the oil price with the prices of other goods during the same time frame. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the price over time of goods and services bought by consumers provides us a way to do this. Setting both the price of oil and the CPI equal to in January 1986 we can see the paths the two indices take in the following graph. If the price of oil had only kept up with overall inflation then it would have risen at the same rate as the CPI. Notice the widening gap between the two price indicators over time. Those in the industry have seen the value of the things they buy increase by almost 60%, while oil has actually lost value in the intervening years. Economic Research and Analysis Division, October 3

4 Feature Article Oil Price Index & CPI Oil Index CPI Index 140 Price Index (Jan 1986 = ) to How long can this go on? Perhaps a better question is how long can Oklahoma and the nation continue to produce oil in the face of these trends? Russell L. Lamb, senior economist, and Chad R. Wilkerson, research associate, both with the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank ask this same question in a recent journal article. The answer was not encouraging. Lamb and Wilkerson show that the oil production costs of other nations, especially in the Middle East, have dropped at a faster rate than the cost in the U.S. This has been driven by the decline in finding costs. New technologies and less exhausted oil fields have propelled finding costs in the Middle East down to about $2 per barrel from $7 in the early 1990 s. Oil finding costs here have fell less than a $1 over this same period to just over $5. This decline in production costs for the largest producers has lead to an outward shift in the supply curve for oil, meaning producers in the Middle East are now willing and able to accept a lower price for their oil than in the past. The competitive disadvantage this places domestic producers in is clear. If these trends continue then at some point the invisible hand of the free market will dictate that oil no longer be produced in this country. If in the interest of national security or regional economic stability that outcome is unacceptable then we should prepare ourselves to answer the questions of how much domestic production is needed and at what price we are willing to subsidize the industry. Reference: Lamb, Russell L. and Wilkerson, Chad R. First Quarter Century? Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,. Can U.S. Oil Production Survive the 20 th Economic Review 4 Economic Research and Analysis Division, October

5 State of Oklahoma Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment Unemployment ,659,400 1,607,500 51, % 3.1% 4.5% Mining Decline Tapers Off TOTAL NONFARM Employment in Oklahoma rose 0.9% in tember, gaining approximately 13,300 jobs for the month. A total of 33,600 jobs have been created since this time last year. The Goods Producing industries declined 0.4% (-1,000 jobs), while the Service Producing industries grew 1.2% (+14,300 jobs) in tember. MINING declined in tember, following what seemed to be a stabilization period for this industry. This employment drop can be directly related to Oil and Gas Extraction, which makes up over 90% of the mining in the State. Oil and Gas Extraction has lost 2,000 jobs (6.8%) since tember. During this same period, the Active Rig Counts in the State declined 34.8%. Active Rig Counts Oil and Gas Extraction Nov-98 Jan-99 Mar-99 CONSTRUCTION continued to decline in tember, completing its third consecutive month of downward trend. While construction reported a normal seasonal decline in tember, this industry has added 1,400 jobs (+2.5%) from a year ago. MANUFACTURING, as a whole, dropped slightly for the month with declines taking place in both Durable and Nondurable Goods. Durable Goods saw a significant increase in Fabricated Metal, while employment levels in Stone, Clay, & Glass, Electronic Equipment and Motor Vehicles contracted. Nondurable Goods reported miniscule gains in Food & Kindred Products and Rubber & Miscellaneous Plastic Products, while Paper & Allied Products declined slightly for the month. May-99 Jul ,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 Employment TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES, as a whole, diminished slightly for the month, following almost six months of employment build up. Air Transportation was the only increasing sector of this major industry division, offsetting its decline in ust. In its entirety, Transportation declined by 300 while Communications & Public Utilities dropped 200 in tember. TRADE fell slightly in tember following a normal seasonal course for this time of year. Both Wholesale and Retail Trade felt this contraction, declining 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Automotive dealers experienced the brunt of the drop in Retail Trade. Eating & Drinking Places decreased slightly over the month. Food Stores was the only reported expansion in Retail Trade for the month, although meager at best. FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE, as a whole, declined in tember. The employment level in Depository Institutions dropped 100 (-0.4%), while Insurance Carriers gained 200 jobs (1.1%). SERVICES posted rather substantial employment growth for the month, after reporting declines the previous two months. Educational Services and Personal Services supported the majority of this increase, gaining 17.6% and 9.7% respectively. Business Services and Social Services, also, reported gains in tember. Employment declines appeared in Hotels & Other Lodging, Motion Pictures, Health Services and Engineering & Management Services. GOVERNMENT as a whole, continued to rise in tember. Large seasonal gains were displayed in State and Local Government. Federal Government diminished slightly in for the month, while remaining positive for the year. Industry HOURS AND EARNINGS Avg Weekly Hours Avg Hourly Earnings Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Economic Research and Analysis Division, October 5

6 State of Oklahoma Statewide NonFarm Payroll Employment Number INDUSTRY TOTAL NONFARM 1,484,000 1,470,700 1,450,400 GOODS PRODUCING 273, , ,100 MINING 29,800 30,100 31,800 Oil & Gas Extraction 27,600 27,900 29,600 CONSTRUCTION 56,500 56,900 55,100 MANUFACTURING 186, , ,200 DURABLE GOODS 119, , ,200 Lumber & Wood Products 4,600 4,600 4,400 Stone, Clay, Glass 9,000 9,200 9,000 Primary Metal Industries 4,800 4,900 4,900 Fabricated Metal 24,500 24,000 23,600 Fabr Struct Metal Products 12,200 12,100 12,000 Industrial Machinery 33,700 33,700 34,100 Construct & Related 10,500 10,500 11,000 Oil & Gas Field 5,300 5,300 5,900 General Industrial 6,600 6,600 6,400 Electronic Equipment 12,100 12,300 11,900 Transportation Equipment 20,300 20,400 20,300 Motor Vehicles 10,700 10,800 11,000 Aircraft & Parts 7,100 7,100 6,800 Instruments & Related 4,500 4,500 4,700 NONDURABLE GOODS 67,100 67,200 67,000 Food & Kindred Products 20,100 20,000 19,700 Textile Mill, Apparel 6,100 6,100 6,800 Paper & Allied 4,900 5,000 5,000 Printing & Publishing 12,500 12,500 12,200 Newspapers, Periodic 5,600 5,600 5,400 Petroleum & Coal Products 4,500 4,400 4,600 Rubber & Misc Plastic 14,900 14,800 14,400 Tires & Inner Tubes 6,600 6,600 6,500 SERVICE PRODUCING 1,210,900 1,196,600 1,177,300 TRANSPORT & PUB UTILS 84,600 85,100 82,700 Transportation 51,500 51,800 50,100 Trucking & Warehouse 24,900 25,100 24,400 Transportation By Air 19,500 19,400 18,700 Pipelines, Exc Natural Gas Number INDUSTRY Communications & Utilities 33,100 33,300 32,600 Communications 20,200 20,300 19,600 Electric, Gas, Sanitary 12,900 13,000 13,000 TRADE 339, , ,000 WHOLESALE TRADE 70,000 70,300 68,800 Wholesale - Durables 38,200 38,500 37,700 Wholesale -Nondurable 31,800 31,800 31,100 RETAIL TRADE 269, , ,200 Building Materials, Garden Supl 10,900 10,900 10,600 General Merchandise 37,000 37,000 35,500 Food Stores 38,400 38,300 38,700 Automotive Dealers 32,100 32,700 32,100 Apparel & Accessory 11,000 11,000 10,800 Furn, Homefurn, Equipment 12,600 12,600 12,000 Eating & Drinking 97,100 97,200 94,300 Miscellaneous Retail 30,400 30,400 29,200 FINANCE,INS.,REAL EST. 76,600 76,800 74,000 Depository Institutions 24,800 24,900 24,300 Insurance Carriers 18,200 18,000 16,900 SERVICES 425, , ,400 Hotels & Other Lodging 10,400 10,800 10,000 Personal Services 15,900 14,500 14,000 Business Services 102, ,800 98,500 Motion Pictures 4,700 4,500 3,700 Health Services 121, , ,000 Hospitals 43,200 43,500 44,100 Educational Services 12,000 10,200 11,800 Social Services 30,800 30,500 29,600 Engineering & Management 27,700 27,900 26,300 TOTAL GOVERNMENT 284, , ,200 Total Federal Government 44,900 45,000 44,400 Total State & Local 239, , ,800 Total State Government 79,100 73,600 78,200 Total Local Government 160, , ,600 Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment INDUSTRY INDUSTRY Total Nonfarm 1,481,500 1,480,700 1,447,000 Service Producing 1,208,900 1,208,300 1,174,600 Goods Producing 272, , ,400 Transport & Pub Utils 84,600 84,500 82,900 Mining 29,600 29,900 31,800 Trade 339, , ,700 Construction 56,100 55,600 54,700 Wholesale 70,100 70,300 69,000 Manufacturing 186, , ,900 Retail 269, , ,700 Durable Goods No data available Finance, Ins., Real Est. 76,800 76,400 74,000 Nondurable Goods 67,200 67,000 66,700 Services 423, , ,200 Total Government 285, , ,800 6 Economic Research and Analysis Division, October

7 Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment Unemployment , ,440 13, % 2.4% 3.7% Number EMPLOYMENT GAINS IN TRADE, SERVICES, AND GOVERNMENT Total NonAgricultural employment in the Oklahoma City MSA increased 1.6% in tember. In, the labor market has improved by 11,100 jobs. Mining fell (-100) jobs in tember. This industry has diminished 4.3% on the year. Despite the decrease of jobs in Construction (-200) this month, employment in this industry is up 2.0% on the year. Manufacturing has experienced a slight decline of 0.4% for the month and (-0.2%) for the year. Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities shed 200 jobs over the month, while gaining 500 over the year. Trade has risen 0.2% in tember. Both the Wholesale and Retail sectors combined to give this industry a +2,800 employment gain on the year. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate exhibited no change in tember. The year thus far, has shown an increase of 3.0%. Services reported a 0.8% gain this month. For the year, there was a rise in employment of 4.1%. Employment increases in Federal (+100), State (+2,400), and Local (+4,700) government have contributed to the 7.5% gain in Total Government this month. Thus far in, this industry has risen 0.5%. INDUSTRY '99 '99 '98 Total Nonfarm 528, , ,200 Goods Producing 81,300 81,800 81,300 Mining 6,700 6,800 7,000 Construction 20,100 20,300 19,700 Manufacturing 54,500 54,700 54,600 Durable Goods 37,600 37,700 37,800 Prim, Fabr Metal Prod 6,100 6,100 6,000 Fabricated Metal 5,300 5,300 5,300 Mach & Electric Equip 17,100 17,300 17,200 Industrial Machinery 10,900 11,000 11,100 Electronic Equipment 6,200 6,300 6,100 Transportation Equip. 8,200 8,300 8,500 Nondurable Goods 16,900 17,000 16,800 Food & Kindred Prod. 4,200 4,200 4,200 Printing & Publishing 4,600 4,700 4,700 Service Producing 447, , ,900 Transport & Pub Utils 24,600 24,800 24,100 Transportation 15,400 15,500 14,900 Communications & Utils 9,200 9,300 9,200 Trade 124, , ,500 Wholesale Trade 26,100 26,100 25,500 Retail Trade 98,200 97,900 96,000 General Merchandise 11,600 11,600 11,000 Food Stores 11,400 11,300 11,200 Finance,Ins.,Real Est. 31,100 31,100 30,200 Deposit & Nondeposit 12,200 12,200 11,200 Insurance Carriers 7,800 7,700 7,700 Services 163, , ,300 Health Services 44,900 44,700 45,200 Hospitals 18,100 18,000 18,400 Educational Services 5,700 5,100 5,900 Total Government 103,300 96, ,800 Total Federal Govt. 25,700 25,600 25,600 Total State & Local 77,600 70,500 77,200 Total State Government 35,100 32,700 36,100 Total Local Government 42,500 37,800 41,100 Industry HOURS AND EARNINGS Avg Weekly Hours Avg Hourly Earnings Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Economic Research and Analysis Division, October 7

8 Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment Unemployment , ,030 13, % 3.0% 3.4% Number LOCAL GOVERNMENT REPORTS SEASONAL GAINS Total Non-farm employment in the Tulsa MSA increased +0.5% to 408,900 in tember. This figure is up +3.4% or 13,500 jobs for the year. Although Construction slipped slightly to 17,400 in tember, the industry has grown by +4.2% over the year. Transportation, Communication & Public Utilities exhibited no changes in tember. Compared to, employment in this industry has grown by +5.1%. Manufacturing reported a decrease of 0.2% or 100 jobs over the month. This decline was concentrated in Nondurable Goods, while Durable Goods remained constant. The Trade industry diminished by 0.5% or 500 jobs in tember. Wholesale Trade reported a slight decrease of 0.4% (-100 jobs), while Retail Trade slipped 0.6% (-400 jobs). Although employment in this major industry division is down for the month, the current employment level is up +3.6% (3,300 jobs) for the year. Services and F.I.R.E. exhibited no change in tember, holding steady at 130,000 and 22,800. Compared to, employment in each industry has grown by +4.4% and +6.0% respectively. Total Government increased to 43,900 jobs in tember. Both Federal and State Government held steady at 5,200 and 6,300 respectively. Local Government accounted for the growth, reporting an employment level of 32,400. This growth is a normal seasonal trend, which is attributed to the beginning of a new school year. INDUSTRY 99 '99 '98 Total Nonfarm 408, , ,400 Goods Producing 83,100 83,400 82,500 Mining 7,800 7,800 7,800 Construction 17,400 17,600 16,700 Manufacturing 57,900 58,000 58,000 Durable Goods 45,600 45,600 45,200 Stone, Clay, Glass 3,300 3,300 3,400 Prim, Fabr Metal Prod 15,800 15,700 15,600 Primary Metal Ind. 2,500 2,500 2,500 Fabricated Metal 13,300 13,200 13,100 Fabr Struct Metal Pr 7,900 7,800 7,700 Mach & Electric Equip 14,500 14,600 14,500 Industrial Machinery 11,400 11,500 11,300 Construct & Related 2,900 2,900 3,100 Electronic Equipment 3,100 3,100 3,200 Transportation Equip. 6,500 6,500 6,200 Nondurable Goods 12,300 12,400 12,800 Printing & Publishing 3,300 3,300 3,300 Petroleum & Coal Prod 2,600 2,600 2,800 Service Producing 325, , ,900 Transport & Pub Utils 34,800 34,800 33,100 Transportation 21,000 21,100 20,200 Communications & Utils 13,800 13,700 12,900 Trade 94,300 94,800 91,000 Wholesale Trade 22,900 23,000 22,500 Retail Trade 71,400 71,800 68,500 General Merchandise 9,800 9,900 9,000 Finance,Ins.,Real Est. 22,800 22,800 21,500 Dep-Nondep,Sec. Commd 8,800 8,800 8,100 Services 130, , ,500 Health Services 35,000 35,300 34,400 Hospitals 14,500 14,900 14,900 Educational Services 5,200 4,800 4,900 Total Government 43,900 41,100 42,800 Total Federal Govt. 5,200 5,200 4,900 Total State & Local 38,700 35,900 37,900 Total State Government 6,300 6,300 6,200 Total Local Government 32,400 29,600 31,700 Industry HOURS AND EARNINGS Avg Weekly Hours Avg Hourly Earnings Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Economic Research and Analysis Division, October

9 Lawton Metropolitan Statistical Area TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT STRONG Total Nonfarm employment in the Lawton Metropolitan Statistical Area gained 500 jobs (+1.3 percent), increasing the employment level to 39,300, the highest level of the year. A total of 1,000 jobs (+2.6 percent) have been introduced since this time last year. Construction experienced a 6.7 percent increase for the month, adding 100 jobs. The industry exhibited significant growth of 14.3 percent compared to the previous year. Although Trade and F.I.R.E. industries continued to hold steady for the month, the Number INDUSTRY 99 '99 '98 Total Nonfarm 39,300 38,800 38,300 Goods Producing 5,600 5,500 5,400 Mining Construction 1,600 1,500 1,400 Manufacturing 3,900 3,900 3,900 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 3,500 3,500 3,500 Service Producing 33,700 33,300 32,900 Transportation & Public Utilities 1,600 1,600 1,600 Trade 9,400 9,400 9,000 Wholesale Trade Retail Trade 8,500 8,500 8,100 Finance, Insur., & Real Estate 1,900 1,900 1,800 Services 8,700 8,600 8,400 Total Government 12,100 11,800 12,100 Total Federal Government 3,900 3,900 3,900 Total State & Local 8,200 7,900 8,200 Total State Government 1,400 1,400 1,300 Total Local Government 6,800 6,500 6,900 employment levels are up 4.4 percent and 5.6 percent respectively over last year. Services employment grew by 1.2 percent, an increase of 100 jobs. Over the year, growth measured 3.6 percent, adding 300 jobs to the MSA. Total Government employment saw a healthy gain of 300 jobs for the month. Local Government was held accountable for all of this increase, while Total Federal Government and State Government remained unchanged. This industry exhibited no change over the year. Enid Metropolitan Statistical Area EMPLOYMENT IN ENID MSA SHOWS IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS YEAR Total Nonfarm employment in the Enid Metropolitan Statistical Area maintained its current employment standing at 24,600. Compared to the previous year, jobs are up by 1.2%. Mining and Construction industry held steady this month, over the year, they lost 12.5% and 10% employment respectively. The Wholesale and Retail Trade posted no gains for the month. Compared to the previous year, there are additional 300 jobs (4.9%). Number INDUSTRY 99 '99 '98 Total Nonfarm 24,600 24,600 24,300 Goods Producing 4,000 4,000 4,100 Mining Construction ,000 Manufacturing 2,400 2,400 2,300 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,500 1,500 1,400 Service Producing 20,600 20,600 20,200 Transpor & Public Utilities 2,300 2,300 2,200 Trade 6,400 6,400 6,100 Wholesale Trade 1,500 1,500 1,400 Retail Trade 4,900 4,900 4,700 Finance, Insur., & Real Est 1,100 1,200 1,100 Services 6,700 6,800 6,700 Total Government 4,100 3,900 4,100 Total Federal Govt Total State & Local 3,700 3,500 3,700 Total State Government 1,200 1,200 1,200 Total Local Government 2,500 2,300 2,500 F.I.R.E slipped this month, reporting an employment level of 1,100, down 8.3%. The year showed no change. Jobs in Services dropped by100 to 6,700 for the month of tember. There was no employment change for the year. Total Government added employment in this month. This augmentation came from the Local Government sector, which added 200 jobs. Federal Government remained stable for the month at 400. Employment in this industry has gone unchanged for the year. Economic Research and Analysis Division, October 9

10 County Data Labor Force Statistics Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Area Employ Unemp Area Employ Unemp U.S. 133,555,000 5,661, % 4.2% 4.4% KIOWA 4, % 3.4% 4.7% Oklahoma 1,607,500 51, % 3.1% 4.5% LATIMER 4, % 6.3% 12.5% LEFLORE 18, % 5.0% 8.6% ADAIR 8, % 5.0% 8.3% LINCOLN 14, % 4.1% 4.5% ALFALFA 2, % 1.3% 2.3% LOGAN 14, % 2.2% 4.2% ATOKA 4, % 2.7% 4.1% LOVE 3, % 3.2% 5.5% BEAVER 2, % 2.6% 3.9% McCLAIN 12, % 2.3% 3.2% BECKHAM 9, % 3.6% 4.8% McCURTAIN 13, % 5.9% 8.0% BLAINE 4, % 2.9% 3.7% McINTOSH 7, % 5.6% 8.7% BRYAN 15, % 2.0% 3.3% MAJOR 3, % 2.7% 3.5% CADDO 12, % 3.5% 6.0% MARSHALL 4, % 3.8% 8.2% CANADIAN 45, % 1.7% 3.0% MAYES 14, % 3.9% 4.8% CARTER 19, % 4.1% 7.1% MURRAY 5, % 5.2% 6.9% CHEROKEE 16, % 3.1% 4.7% MUSKOGEE 30,450 1, % 3.8% 6.8% CHOCTAW 5, % 5.2% 11.5% NOBLE 5, % 2.1% 3.7% CIMARRON 1, % 1.9% 2.4% NOWATA 3, % 4.7% 5.8% CLEVELAND 108,400 2, % 2.0% 3.0% OKFUSKEE 4, % 3.9% 7.4% COAL 2, % 4.1% 9.9% OKLAHOMA 323,850 8, % 2.5% 3.8% COMANCHE 40,540 1, % 3.2% 5.1% OKMULGEE 13, % 6.0% 9.1% COTTON 2, % 4.3% 6.4% OSAGE 20, % 3.1% 3.8% CRAIG 6, % 2.1% 3.2% OTTAWA 12, % 3.9% 6.1% CREEK 33,300 1, % 3.2% 4.0% PAWNEE 5, % 4.4% 5.0% CUSTER 12, % 2.6% 4.2% PAYNE 35, % 1.1% 2.0% DELAWARE 16, % 3.3% 4.5% PITTSBURG 16, % 5.2% 7.8% DEWEY 2, % 3.9% 3.4% PONTOTOC 16, % 2.9% 5.3% ELLIS 1, % 3.7% 5.9% POTTAWATOMIE 27, % 3.3% 5.9% GARFIELD 26, % 2.7% 3.8% PUSHMATAHA 4, % 4.6% 6.7% GARVIN 10, % 5.0% 7.1% ROGER MILLS 1, % 2.8% 5.3% GRADY 19, % 3.8% 5.7% ROGERS 35,130 1, % 3.0% 3.4% GRANT 2, % 1.9% 2.9% SEMINOLE 9, % 6.5% 10.5% GREER 2, % 2.1% 5.4% SEQUOYAH 16, % 4.4% 8.0% HARMON 1, % 2.4% 4.6% STEPHENS 17, % 4.5% 6.9% HARPER 1, % 2.0% 3.3% TEXAS 13, % 1.8% 3.0% HASKELL 4, % 5.5% 10.4% TILLMAN 3, % 3.3% 5.3% HUGHES 4, % 6.6% 8.2% TULSA 301,260 9, % 3.1% 3.3% JACKSON 12, % 3.1% 4.9% WAGONER 28, % 2.5% 3.2% JEFFERSON 3, % 2.7% 5.5% WASHINGTON 18, % 4.0% 3.9% JOHNSTON 4, % 3.5% 6.7% WASHITA 4, % 3.3% 4.2% KAY 21,280 1, % 5.4% 7.6% WOODS 4, % 1.7% 3.2% KINGFISHER 6, % 2.3% 3.3% WOODWARD 9, % 4.4% 4.6% 10 Economic Research and Analysis Division, October

11 At A Glance Distribution of Unemployment Rates Preliminary Data for tember 0.0% to 3.1% 3.2% to 6.2% 6.3% and over Ranking and Unemployment Rates Oklahoma and US Unemployment Rate US 4.2 OK 3.1 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98 Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99 Jul Note: Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted -99 Ranking U.S. OK Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Economic Research and Analysis Division, October 11

12 For More Information Visit our web site at Phone (405) Fax (405) The material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without special permission. Please credit Oklahoma Labor Market Information, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Design/Layout by Lucresha Sutton and Amanda Hlubin. The Oklahoma Labor Market Information is published monthly by the Economic Research & Analysis Division of the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Twenty-three hundred (2300) copies have been published at a cost of $2, paid from funds granted by the U. S. Department of Labor. Copies have been deposited with the Publications Clearinghouse of the Oklahoma Department of Libraries. Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs Jon Brock, Executive Director, OESC Auther Jordan, Director, Economic Research and Analysis Oklahoma Labor Market Information Economic Research and Analysis Division Oklahoma Employment Security Commission PO Box Oklahoma City, OK RETURN SERVICE REQUESTED If you do not desire to continue receiving this publication, check here and return this cover to the above address. If your address has changed, please indicate and return this cover to above address. Please Recycle Economic Research and Analysis Division October