DEVELOPMENT AND PROJECTION OF SINGLE-PARENT FAMILIES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

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1 DEVELOPMENT AND PROJECTION OF SINGLE-PARENT FAMILIES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC Ondřej Nývlt Abstract The first art of the analysis will be focused on the descrition of the number of single-arents households in the Czech Reublic in the eriod The analytical art will focus on a comarison of single-arent families comared to the total number of the family households. The age and gender of the single-arent will be a comlementary factor in this analysis. The second art of the analysis will focus on rojection of the number of single-arents families in The essential source for this study are the data from Labour Force survey. LFS is a continuous survey with the ossibility of resulting value on an annual basis unlike Census. The headshi rate according to age grous and the relative share of individual tyes of households will be used as a basic methodological aroach for this study. The advantage of this method is the ossibility of linking to oulation rojection. The oulation rojection is the basic source for the following rojection of households. Key words: single-arents families, headshi rate method, Labour Force Survey. JEL CODE: J10, J11, J13 Introduction The number and structure of rivate households is imlicitly influenced by demograhic and non-demograhic factors of oulation develoment; for instance changing attitudes towards marriage, divorce and birth. In the case of the rojection of the rivate household, further nondemograhic factors (trends toward consensual union, an early dearture from the arental home) may also be imortant. The demograhic and non-demograhic factors, which, in a oulation rojection, are considered to be related to the individual erson, together influence the entire rocess of household formation, extension, reduction, and dissolution (Linke, 1989). 1085

2 Other changes emerged in the sixties with an increase in secularization, individual rights and freedoms of the individual in Euroe, which brought about an increase in the share of other forms of cohabitation at the exense of marriage (Lesthaeghe, 1983). In the case of the Czech Reublic the non-demograhic factors as an increase in individual rights and freedoms after 1989 lay a secific role. In the eriod after 1989 there were major changes in the society, which had a significant influence on the formation of households. Before 1989 the financial benefits associated with entry into marriage in the socialist Czechoslovakia logically discouraged eole from living in such unions, reflected in the minimum values of extramarital fertility. After 1989, the exansion of various alternative behaviours in family history led to an unrecedented increase in extramarital fertility (eg. Lesthaeghe Surkyn, 2002, Rychtaříková, 2003, Kennedy - Bumass, 2008, Dominguez- Folgueras, 2013). The develoment after 1989 gradually shifted away from clear reference of marriages, when the Czech Reublic was characterized by an extremely low age of entry into the first marriage, absence of cohabitation or other alternative forms of cohabitation (including for examle Mingles, Singles) (Kučera, 1994). The develoment in the Czech Reublic was characterized by the henomenon of relatively high divorce rates (Nývlt Bartoňová, 2011). This caused the rise of the number of single-arent family households. The normalization in Czechoslovakia contributed to a delay in the onset of the second demograhic transition, with the excetion of the extension of single-arent family households and one-member households (Kučera, 2005). The eriod after 1989 can still be characterized by an increase in the divorce rate and rise in the number of women living alone with a child under 15 years of age. While in 1995 the number amounted to thousand women, in 2015 it was already thousand women, the increase of aroximately 33% (Nývlt, 2016). This confirmed by a study in the Czech Reublic itself, the marriage is still considered an institution in which children should be brought u and the redominant tye of cohabitation is a remarital cohabitation of childless ersons (Heuveline - Timberlake, 2004; Sobotka - Toulemon, 2008). Develoment of an individual rights and the exansion of social security for the oulation led to the growing number of family cohabitation, where the children live in a household with only one arent. This develoment, of course, also contributed to a rise of the intensity of the creation of a new one-arent family with children household. In a way, the negative henomenon of the exansion of social security 1086

3 for the oulation of develoed countries in Euroe led to the growing number of family cohabitation, where the children live in a household with only one arent (Lesthaeghe, 1983). 1 Data Source Labour Force Survey is the main data source for this study. LFS is a household samle survey, the largest in the Czech Reublic. This is a continuous survey which has been roviding comarable data in the time series since The samle includes aroximately 25,000 households, reresenting aroximately 63,000 eole. The survey covers all ersons usually living in surveyed rivate household dwellings. The usual residence is based on the intension to remain in the territory of the Czech Reublic at least one year. 2 Methodology The number of households may be rojected by using either the microsimulation or macrosimulation aroach. The first aroach requests access to individual data on one hand, and a relatively large number of assumtion about individual transition robabilities on the other hand (Linke, 1988). The macrosimulation model does not require access to individual data. The headshi rate method in modelling households is one of the bestknown alication of the macroanalytical aroach. The advantage of this method is the ossibility of linking to oulation rojection. The oulation rojection is the basic source for the following rojection of households. This model rojection of households is based on the calculation headshi rate according to age grous and the relative share of individual tyes of households. The rojection in this analysis is only illustrative. The rojection does not use the nondemograhic factors for future develoments. In this analysis we will assume that the relative roortion of individual household tyes does not change over time. The result is only one otion of the rojection, not three. For the urose of the rojection, the headshi rate is calculated for each five-year age grou according to the sex of the erson in the head of the household: Hx, t Kx, t (1) Px, t where H x, t is the number of the erson in the head of the household in age grou x, in year t 1087

4 and P x, t average oulation in age grou x, in year t In this rojection, we assume unchanging headshi rate for the whole eriod until For this reason we can calculate the total number of the ersons in the head of the household according to the formula: H vx, t * Px, t, (2) where H, is the rojected number of the ersons in the head of the household in the household in the age grou x, in year t, v x, t is rojected headshi rate in the age grou x in year t, a P, is rojected oulation in the age grou x, in year t t x After that, it is only sufficient to change the total number of heads of households for the total number of households and to divide by the age of the head of the household and sex, deending on the rojected relative size of each household tye according to the formula:, j H hx, t * H x, t, (3) where j H,, is the rojected number of the ersons in the head of the household according to the tye of the household in the age grou x, in year t, h x, t is the rojected relative share of individual tyes of households in the age grou x, in year t a H, is the rojected number of the ersons in the head of household in the age grou x, in year t By summing u the five-year age grous we obtain the rojected numbers of individual tyes of households in year t according to the formula: n, j H x, t H x, t (4) i

5 3 Analysis Due to the ositive migration balance, there was a relatively large increase in oulation from the beginning of the 21st century until After 2008, the oulation growth was not so stee. The oulation growth also reflected the absolute growth in the number of households during this eriod. A decrease of the average household size was another reason for a higher absolute growth in the number of households. The most intensive growth for the whole eriod was in households of individuals. Total number of single arent family households grew by 2008, then on contrary began to decrease and in 2013 it was 408,7 thousands of single family households. The eriod between 2002 and 2008 was characterized by a significant change in the household structure as a result of demograhic changes in society. After 2008, there were not major changes in the develoment of individual tyes of households. This rule is valid also for number and share of single arent family households. Therefore, the constant rate of growth of individual tyes of households can be considered as the basis for the household rojection. Tab. 1: Number of households in the Czech Reublic (2002, 2008, 2013) Tye of household Partner family households Single arent family household Household of individual Non-family household Total households Source: Labour Force Survey Tab. 2: Share of individual tye of households in the Czech Reublic (2002, 2008, 2013) in % Tye of household Partner family households 64,5 60,4 59,9 Single arent family household 10,0 10,1 9,2 Household of individual 22,8 27,3 28,3 Non-family household 2,7 2,1 2,6 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 Source: Labour Force Survey

6 in % in housand Household rojections are based on the basic rojection of the oulation. In the first ste we will have a look at the average oulation for year 2013 according to the basic age grous. For the uroses of this study, the rojection of the Czech Statistical Office from 2013 has been chosen (Projekce obyvatelstva do roku 2100, 2013). We will take into account only the middle variation of the rojection. It then calculates the formulas described above. Due to the decline in the middle-aged oulation and the growth of the older oulation during the eriod 2013 to 2050, the number and the share of the family households will be lower. This decline will be less relevant for single arent households. In 2013 the share of single arent households of individuals to the total number of family households was 21.9 %, in %. Fig. 1: Projection of single family households, Czech Reublic, ,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, ,0 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 Share of single family households in total households Share of single family households in family households with a deendent child Total number of single family households Source: Labour Force Survey Conclusion The growth of single arent households is one of the negative features of the current develoment of demograhic develoment. The Continuous growth began in the eighties of the last century and continued until the middle of the first decade of this millennium. In this eriod, for examle, the total divorce was u to 50%. In recent years, develoment of number and share single arent households has stabilized. 1090

7 In the second art, the study focused on the household rojection to The headshi rate method was used as the alication of the macroanalytical aroach. The advantage of this method is the ossibility of linking to the oulation rojection. For the eriod u to 2050, this rojection counts on the stagnation of the share of single arents households. Given the aging of the oulation, the number of family households will fall, which will be reflected in a decrease in the number of single arent households. This study is based on the unchanged intensity of creating individual tyes of households. This aroach reflects the stability of the number and share of individual tye of households in recent years. REFERENCES Nývlt, O., & Bartoňová, D. (2011). Rodinné domácnosti na trhu ráce: Vývoj ekonomické aktivity otců a matek z hlediska věku dětí. Demografie, 53(3), Nývlt, O. Women in Family Households with Children. The 10th International Days of Statistics and Economics, Prague, Setember 8-10, Prague. Dominguez-Folgueras, M. (2013). Cohabitation in Sain: No Longer a Marginal Path to Family Formation. Journal of Marriage and Family, Heuveline, P., & Timberlake, J. M. (2004). The Role of Cohabitation in Family Formation: The United States in Comarative Persective. Journal of Marriage and Family, 66(5), Kennedy, S., & Bumass, L. (2008). Cohabitation and children s living arrangements: New estimates from the United State. Journal of Marriage and Family, 19, Kučera, M. (1994). Poulace České reubliky Praha: Sociologický ústav AV ČR. Kučera, M. (2005). Rodinné domácnosti ve výsledcích sčítání Demografie, 47(1),

8 Lesthaeghe, R. (1983). A Century of Demograhic and Cultural Change in Western Euroe: 435. Lesthaeghe, R., & Surkyn, J. (2002). New Forms of Household Formation in Central and Eastern Euroe: Are they related to newly emerging Value Orientation? Interuniversity aer in demograhy. Brussel: Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Linke, W. (1989). The headshi rate aroach in modelling households: The case of the Federal Reublic of Germany. Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution, Projekce obyvatelstva do roku (2013). Retrieved from An exloration of Underlying Dimension. Poulation and Develoment Review, 9(3), 411- htts:// Rychtaříková, J. (2003). Diferenční lodnost v České reublice odle rodinného stavu a vzdělání v kohortní ersektivě. P in D. Hamlová, J. Rychtaříková, S. Pikálková, České ženy. Vzdělání, artnerství, rerodukce a rodina. Praha: Sociologický ústav. Sobotka, T., & Toulemon, L. (2008). Changing family and artnershi behaviour: Common trends and ersistent diversity across Euroe. Demograhic Research, 19(6), Contact Ondřej Nývlt University of Economics, Prague Sq. W. Churchill 1938/ Prague 3 Czech Reublic ondrej.nyvlt@vse.cz 1092