SOA 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey

Transcription

1 SOA 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey The Impact of Retirement Risks on Women WISER Symposium December 2, 2010 Cindy Levering, SOA Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks

2 Agenda Introduction, context, perspective and methodology Overview of post-retirement risks Special post-retirement risks for women Conclusions and observations Appendix 2

3 Context Aging population Recession Health care Decreasing availability of lifetime benefits Challenges of individual responsibility 3

4 Perspectives on Research Ten years of experience with Post-Retirement Risk Research Identified a number of themes Relatively short-term planning horizon Gaps in knowledge about post-retirement risk Gaps in action knowledge does not spell action hard to get people to act Employer is important Not too much change over time 4

5 Perspectives on Research (continued) Reluctance to use financial products to manage risk People more influenced by immediate/recent events than longer term Pre-retirees more concerned about risk than retirees Not unusual for people to be more optimistic than justified Using research results Not always easy Focus on longer term 5

6 SOA Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks Focus is on understanding and mechanisms to assist in the distribution phase of retirement Work includes Risks and Process of Retirement Surveys 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 Select issues for special focus Study of Retirement Planning Software Developing Consumer Profiles for the Middle Market 6

7 Methodology: Risks and Process of Retirement Survey Sponsored by the Society of Actuaries minute telephone interviews conducted in July 2009 Interviewed Americans ages Retirees and pre-retirees considered separately Margin of error at 95% confidence level is ± 5 percentage points for all retirees and all pre-retirees Conducted by Mathew Greenwald & Associates, Inc., and the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) 7

8 Overview of Post-Retirement Risks Longevity and the risk of outliving assets Loss of spouse and/or change in status of other family members providing or needing assistance Decline in functional status Unexpected and catastrophic out-of-pocket medical expenses Inflation and volatility of financial markets 8

9 Special Post-Retirement Risks for Women: Longevity and Risk of Outliving Assets At age 65, average life expectancy is 17 years for American men and 20 years for women. 5 out of 10 reaching 65 will survive longer. 3 out of 10 women and 2 out of 10 men age 65 can expect to reach 90. (1) More women live longer and they are much more likely to be alone. Of women over 65 living alone, 4 out of 10 depend on Social Security for virtually all of their income. (1) Social Security Administration, 2010 Period Life Table 9

10 Special Post-Retirement Risks for Women: Loss of Spouse Periods of widowhood of 15 years or more are not uncommon. The death of a spouse is often accompanied by a decline in standard of living. Women are much more likely to be alone in old age. Elderly women are more likely to be poor. More than 85% of the female population over age 85 are widows compared to about 45% for men. 10

11 Special Post-Retirement Risks for Women: Decline in Functional Status Nursing home costs may run $70,000 or more per year. (2) Care may be provided at home, in adult day care centers, assisted living facilities or nursing homes. Women are likely to have a longer period of chronic disability and need assistance in a long-term care facility or from a paid caregiver. 20% of the residual life expectancy at age 65 for men and 30% of the residual life expectancy at age 65 for women were spent in a state of chronic disability. (3) (2) Metlife Market Survey of Nursing Home and Home Health Care Costs, 2005 (3) National Long Term Care Study data from 1984, 1989 and

12 Special Post-Retirement Risks for Women: Health Care and Medical Expenses A 2010 study estimates that health care costs for a retired couple age 65 could amount, on average, to $250,000 over their retirement years (not including long-term care costs (3) Women are less likely than men to have early retiree health benefits based on their own work record. Women are also more likely to be caregivers for family members. Retiree health benefits are very important to early retirement, but this will likely change starting in 2014 when State Exchanges are established. Health benefit costs may affect women more than men since they often have lower incomes, but not lower health care costs. (3) Fidelity Investments, Retiree Health Care Costs Estimate,

13 Special Post-Retirement Risks for Women: Inflation and Volatility of Financial Markets Over the period , annual inflation in the U.S. for all items ranged from -0.4% to 8.9%. The average over this period was 3.5%. For medical care, the annual average has been 5.8%. (4) Inflation affects people who live longer since its impact grows over time. (4) Consumer Price Indices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

14 General Conclusions Misperceptions still exist after 20+ years of experience with 401(k) plans and IRAs Unclear if the economic downturn will lead to better management/planning Longer-term risk management is very difficult for individuals Few workers are prepared for the risk of a sudden and unplanned early retirement 14

15 General Conclusions Low appetite for guaranteed income products and persistent feeling that people can do it on their own Widows and very old will continue to be vulnerable A strong retirement system must include programs that work for those who will not take the initiative Education is important, but it cannot be the primary strategy and there are limits to what it can accomplish 15

16 Observations Women and men expect they will need similar services, with women more likely to rely on family or community services for assistance. Women are more likely to expect their retirement expenses to increase as they become more limited in their capacity to perform activities of daily living. Married women are likely to outlive their husbands not only because they live longer but because traditionally they married older men. Among retirees, men are more likely to have used or plan to use home equity to help finance their retirement. 16

17 Conclusions Specific to Women Role of Social Security is critical, especially at lower income levels. Financial literacy challenges are more severe for women. Widows are often impacted by their husband s early retirement. Women near retirement often focus more on the short-term and managing day-to-day. Having a shorter planning horizon has more of an impact on women due to their longer life expectancy. 17

18 The Hardest Thing You May Ever Do When should I retire? Should my retirement be an event or a process? How long will I (and my spouse, if applicable) live? How much will I spend each year? What will my investments earn? How much money do I want to leave my heirs? What will inflation/tax rates/medical costs do in the future? How secure are my pensions? When should I (and my spouse, if applicable) start collecting Social Security? What will Social Security benefits be in the future? Should I buy an annuity? Should I have long term care coverage? If an experienced pension actuary is perplexed, how can someone who hasn t done this all of his or her working life hope to get it right? (Robert J. Rietz, Sep/Oct 2010 issue of Contingencies magazine) 18

19 Appendix 19

20 Planning Horizons Men and women have similar planning horizons, but these are much shorter than what is needed for adequate retirement planning. When you (and your spouse/partner) make important financial decisions, about how many years do you look into the future? Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 11% 10% Less than 1 year 1% 2% 24% 17% 21% 18% 14% 17% 23% 27% 6% 8% 1 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 19 years 20 years or more Don t know 17% 8% 21% 15% 11% 11% 12% 27% 35% 38% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 20

21 Levels of Concern Women and men share similar levels of concerns, with women more concerned about health care, depleting savings, and remaining in their home. How concerned are you that (in retirement)? (Percentage very or somewhat concerned) Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 55% 60% 48% 56% You might not be able to keep the value of your savings and investments up with inflation Your income in retirement may vary based on changes in interest rates 67% 75% 60% 64% 55% 42% You might not have enough money to pay for adequate health care 63% 71% 41% 52% 39% 51% 39% 50% 43% 28% 26% 38% 27% 28% 25% 25% You might deplete all of your savings You might not have enough money to pay for a long stay in a nursing home or a period of nursing care at home You might not be able to maintain a reasonable standard of living for the rest of your life Your spouse may not be able to maintain same standard of living after your death, if you should die first (if married) You might not be able to afford to stay in current home for the rest of your life You might not be able to leave money to your children or other heirs You might not be able to rely on children or other family to provide assistance 57% 60% 50% 61% 51% 61% 43% 37% 28% 36% 31% 38% 32% 33% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 21

22 Effect of Recession Women are more likely than men to report the recent recession has made them feel that they need to save more money. Has the recent stock market and economic downturn made you feel that you? (Percentage saying yes) Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 52% 50% Have to do a better job at managing your finances/ planning for retirement 60% 63% 55% 43% Have to save more money 67% 76% 22% 25% Have to go back to work/ have to work longer 58% 69% 15% 19% Need more advice from a financial professional about saving and investing 24% 25% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 22

23 Risk Management Strategy In many ways, women and men manage risk similarly, yet women are more likely to cut back on spending as a strategy. Have you (and your spouse) done the following to protect yourselves financially as you get older? (Percentage who have used strategy) Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 61% 59% Eliminate all of your consumer debt, by paying off all credit cards and loans 49% 41% 67% 45% Cut back on spending 42% 64% 58% 47% Try to save as much money as you can 49% 45% 48% 49% Completely pay off your mortgage 29% 30% 46% 50% Invest a portion of your money in stocks or stock mutual funds 56% 55% 43% 43% Move your assets to increasingly conservative investments as you get older 28% 25% 27% 21% Postpone taking Social Security 7% 7% 20% 19% 25% 14% 16% 13% Buy real estate or invest in property Buy a product or choose an employer plan option that will provide guaranteed income for life Work longer 25% 25% 20% 20% 14% 14% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 23

24 Financial Management Considerations Men and women are equally likely to agree that certain factors are important to consider when managing their retirement finances. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following? (Percentage strongly agree) Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 78% 80% 55% 63% 55% 53% 48% 55% It is important that you and your spouse agree on your retirement finances/plans [if married] It is important to consider how long your spouse might live when thinking about your retirement finances [if married] It is important to consider how long you might live when thinking about your retirement finances Your (and your spouse s) health will be the main factor affecting how long your retirement money lasts 80% 76% 72% 68% 65% 64% 59% 59% 16% 15% If someone manages their finances well during their first three years of retirement, their money will last throughout retirement 22% 18% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 24

25 Loss of a Spouse Married women are more likely than their husbands to recognize their financial vulnerability in the event that they become widowed. If your spouse were to pass away before you, do you think it would leave you financially? (If married) If you were to pass away before your spouse, do you think it would leave your spouse financially? (If married) Male Retirees (n=146) Female Retirees (n=114) Male Pre-retirees (n=166) Female Pre-retirees (n=141) 74% 64% 74% 73% 64% 68% 51% 53% 18% 11% 11% 21% 27% 17% 14% 14% 19% 18% 35% 20% 16% 7% 11% 12% Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Better off About the same Worse off Better off About the same Worse off You, if your spouse were to pass away first Your spouse, if you were to pass away first Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 25

26 Decline in Functional Status Women and men share similar expectations about a decline in functional status. Do you think you will have a time in retirement when? (Percentage yes) Male Retirees (n=200) Female Retirees (n=200) Male Pre-retirees (n=200) Female Pre-retirees (n=201) 59% 46% 59% 61% 68% 75% 82% 86% 64% 66% 71% 65% Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Retirees Pre-retirees Your abilities and needs are about the same as before you retired You are somewhat less able to do things you used to do and your needs are somewhat different You are much less able to do things you used to do and your needs are very different Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 26

27 Health Care Expenses Women and men manage health care risk similarly. Have you (and your spouse) done the following to protect yourselves financially when it comes to health expenses as you get older? (Percentage who have used strategy) Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 84% 84% Maintain healthy lifestyle habits, such as a proper diet, regular exercise, and preventative care 79% 80% 58% 60% Purchase health insurance to supplement Medicare or participate in an employerprovided retiree health plan 24% 26% 33% 31% Save for the possibility of having large health expenses or needing long-term care 18% 22% 28% 27% Buy long-term care insurance 21% 22% 5% 6% Move into or arrange for care through a continuing care retirement community 1% 1% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 27

28 Inflation and Volatility of Financial Markets Women and men share similar levels of concerns, with women retirees less concerned about a surviving spouse s ability to maintain their standard of living. Retirees (males=200, females=201); Pre-retirees (males=201, females=202) Retirees Men Women Pre-retirees 55% 60% 48% 56% You might not be able to keep the value of your savings and investments up with inflation Your income in retirement may vary based on changes in interest rates 67% 75% 60% 64% 55% 42% You might not have enough money to pay for adequate health care 63% 71% 41% 52% 39% 51% 39% 50% 43% 28% 26% 38% 27% 28% 25% 25% You might deplete all of your savings You might not have enough money to pay for a long stay in a nursing home or a period of nursing care at home You might not be able to maintain a reasonable standard of living for the rest of your life Your spouse may not be able to maintain same standard of living after your death, if you should die first (if married) You might not be able to afford to stay in current home for the rest of your life You might not be able to leave money to your children or other heirs You might not be able to rely on children or other family to provide assistance 57% 60% 50% 61% 51% 61% 43% 37% 28% 36% 31% 38% 32% 33% Source: Society of Actuaries, 2009 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey 28