gesamtwirtkjlkjlkjlkjlkj October 2014 Translated by: Michael Ravnik, BA

Transcription

1 gesamtwirtkjlkjlkjlkjlkj October 2014 Translated by: Michael Ravnik, BA

2 Danube Axis Macroeconomic Evaluation I Client ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG Project Management DI Dr. Hubert Hager (hubert.hager@oebb.at) Ing. Mag. Marko Koren (marko.koren@oebb.at) Project partners IHS Institute for Advanced Studies IKK Ziviltechniker GmbH (certified engineer) WIFO Austrian Institute of Economic Research ZTL Centre for Transport and Logistics Management DI Dr. Hans Wehr Consultant

3 Danube Axis Macroeconomic Evaluation 1 MANAGEMENT SUMMARY As a result of the fall of the Iron Curtain and the expansion of the European Union, Austria is once again in the centre of Europe and at the intersection of important transportation corridors. Positioning itself strongly as the economic hub in this environment is becoming of particular importance for Austria in an increasingly competitive global market 1. Efficient transport axes for environmentally friendly freight and passenger transportation will play a decisive role for Austria and its position in the global economy. The Danube Axis 2, in addition to the Baltic-Adriatic Axis, is of great importance for Austria, traversing Austria s Northern states as it connects economic areas between Paris and Budapest. Its logistic dimension impacts the entire region between the Black Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Figure M1 illustrates the industry share of GDP (gross domestic product) measured in percent along the Danube Axis. The continuous rail link is of great significance for business locations along the axis. At the same time, the expansion of the Danube Axis creates an enormous development potential for passenger transportation on the railway, with 50 million people living in the agglomeration zone along the axis. 1 cf. Adelsberger (2007), p The Danube Axis is a combination of the Rhine Danube Corridor and the Atlantic Corridor, with a focus on the corridor Budapest Paris (cf. printed on September 30, 2014)

4 Danube Axis Macroeconomic Evaluation 2 Indust r y shar e of GDP (w it hout const r uct ion sect or ) 20 11, in % Figure M1: industry share of GDP, 2011 Source: Eurostat (2014) 3, Design: IHS (2014) Past and future expansions of the Danube Axis will result in an efficient and continuous rail link. These developments have brought, and will continue to bring, economic stimulus to Austria and the other regions along the axis. The Danube Axis study takes into account the following points of view: passenger and freight traffic financial effects on ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG transportation policy and state-specific planning parameters (national economy, society) 3 The illustration regarding the GDP per NUTS3 region uses data from the year (This is the most up to date data available).

5 Danube Axis Macroeconomic Evaluation 3 A dynamic investment analysis method was implemented in order to evaluate the financial business effects for the ÖBB Infrastruktur AG. The macroeconomic effects resulting from the construction phase were assessed using the ADAGIO Model from WIFO. This model illustrates the interdependences of demand, production, employment, and income within an economic region 4. The macroeconomic effects arising from the operating phase were evaluated with the IHS-EAR Model, relying on the assumption that an improved transportation infrastructure will lead to a reduction of transport costs, which will stimulate trade between regions or even entire economies 5. In Austria, the investment of EUR 11 billion (values discounted or compounded to base year 2010, including discounted reinvestments and salvage values, equals roughly EUR 9.2 billion) results in additional added value of EUR 14.7 billion during the construction phase and EUR 23.2 billion during the operating phase. During construction an average of 7,000 jobs will be generated (average ). Beginning in 2010, the operational phase will create 4,700 additional secured and sustainable jobs; and in 2025, an additional 6,300 sustainable jobs will be generated. The fiscal return equals EUR 15.5 billion, whereby EUR 5.2 billion and EUR 10.3 billion are generated during the construction phase and operating phase, respectively (with a real interest rate of 3.06% for the business evaluation and a real interest rate of 2.5% for the macroeconomic evaluation). In addition to Austria, EU regions along the Danube Axis benefit as well. During the construction phase, an additional EUR 8.7 billion of added value is generated in these regions, followed by an additional EUR 56.1 billion during the operating phase. In Switzerland, the improved accessibility results in EUR 5.1 billion additional added value being generated and an employment increase of 1,500 during the operating phase. 4 cf. Streicher/Fritz (2010a), p cf. Lakshmanan (2011), p. 1ff

6 Danube Axis Macroeconomic Evaluation 4 Table M1 summarizes the macroeconomic effects Unit Table M1: Results of the macroeconomic effects Source: WIFO calculations, IHS calculations Value Additional GDP Austria Present value at start of 2010, EUR billion EU (incl. Austria) Present value at start of 2010, EUR billion Additional Employment Austria Quantity 11,000 EU (incl. Austria) Quantity 56,900 Fiscal returns (Austria) Present value at start of 2010, EUR billion Unit Value Additional GDP Austria Present value at start of 2010, EUR billion EU (incl. Austria) Present value at start of 2010, EUR billion Additional Employment Austria Quantity (average ) 7,000 EU (incl. Austria) Quantity (average ) 12,300 Fiscal returns (Austria) Present value at start of 2010, EUR billion 5.20 Costs (Austria) Present value beginning 2010, EUR billion Multiplier Variable Operating Phase Planing and Construction Phase Austria 3.67 EU (incl. Austria) 9.96 Financing degree in percent 151 % Assumptions: Costs correspond to present value of costs of construction including reinvestments and salvage values. Other values are present values at a real interest rate of 2.5%. The financing degree is calculated by dividing fiscal returns by the costs of construction including reinvestments and salvage values. The period under review begins in 2015 and ends in For this reason, not the entire additional gross value added effects are considered in the cost-benefit analysis; instead, only the effects from the period under review are part of the costbenefit analysis. The basis for the traffic modelling is the Transport Model Austria (VMÖ) with the Transport Prognoses Austria (VPÖ25+).

7 Danube Axis Macroeconomic Evaluation 5 Passenger traffic by rail Prognosis 2025 Results in passengers / day Source: Prognosis 2025 with DA from VPÖ25+ Prognosis 2025 without DA calculations BMVIT Freight traffic by rail prognosis 2025 Results in million net tonnes / year Source: Prognosis 2025 with DA from VPÖ25+ Prognosis 2025 without DA with own calculations Figure M2: traffic load in passenger and freight transportation Source: own calculations, Kriebernegg The development of the Danube Axis results in a substantial modal shift potential from road to rail. This modal shift potential results in ecological effects through a reduction of air pollution worth EUR million during the period under review. The accident costs are reduced by EUR 1,832.7 million. The assessment reveals a cost-benefit quotient of 3.6. In the extended cost-benefit analysis, only the operating period benefits that arise from 2015 to 2044 are considered. The macroeconomic, ecological, and social benefits are actually much larger since these effects begin before 2015 and extend beyond the 30-year time frame under consideration. In summary, the investments into the Austrian projects of the Danube Axis show a negative microeconomic net benefit for the ÖBB Infrastruktur AG, but a positive macroeconomic benefit for the entire country. Table M2: results of the expanded cost-benefit analysis for rail presentation of effects Source: own design