Agenda Item # Pase # PREVIOUS REPORTS PERTINENT TO THIS MATTER

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1 J Agenda Item # Pase # II I CHAIR AND MEMBERS To: COMMUNITY AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES COMMITTEE MEETING ON JULY 20,2009 I 11 FROM:..... I ROSS L. FAIR GENERAL MANAGER OF COMMUNITY SERVICES I 11 SUBJECT I ONTARIO WORKS MAY 2009 CASELOAD UPDATE REPORT II RECOMMENDATION II That, on the recommendation of the General Manager of Community Services the following report BE RECEIVED for information purposes. u PREVIOUS REPORTS PERTINENT TO THIS MATTER With some exceptions, starting in 2002 until June 18, 2007, Ontario Works Caseload information reports were submitted at the last Community and Protective Services Committee (CPSC) meeting of each month. Copies of these reports can be accessed through the City Council, Community and Protective Services Committee, Agenda section of the City of London website. As of September 24, 2007, the Social Assistance Trends Quarterly Report replaced the Ontario Works Monthly Caseload Report. As of January 2009, the Ontario Works Caseload Update Report is provided on a more frequent basis than quarterly because of the rapidly changing and volatile economic and labour market conditions. BACKGROUND At its meeting held on November 24, 2008, the Community and Protective Services Committee (CPSC) requested that the General Manager of Community Services provide caseload information on a more frequent basis. This report responds to that request. HIGHLIGHTS The following are the updated highlights of our Ontario Works caseload and related service indicators. Caseload The Ontario Works caseload continues to grow. The caseload for May 2009 was 9,819 (an increase of 27 cases since April 2009). From December 31, 2008 to May 31, 2009, the caseload has grown by 12.8% (caseload for December 2008 was 8,704). In the last twelve months (since June 2008), the caseload has increased by 215% or 1,740 cases. Our caseload is forecasted based on a model that is similar to what is used by the Province except that we use local data. Our model takes into account unemployment rates, economic forecasts, caseload dynamics (entering and exiting the caseload), historical caseload information, and policy and program changes. The model however can not anticipate the kind of economic changes we have encountered recently. As unemployment rates continue to increase we anticipate that the caseload will increase as well.

2 Asenda Item # Paae # Unemployment Rate and Ontario Works Caseload, January 2008 to May 2009' _. Y P g 10, g 8, ,000 6 g 5 4, ,000 2 : s 4 E 0 o = I D O W caseload +Unemployment Rate (unadjusted, 3 month moving average) I Performance indicators The caseload grew in May 2009 as more people became eligible and fewer people exited the caseload. The number of incoming calls (1,142 in May 2009) is lower than it has been for a number of months. The number of new applications to our Ontario Works office (990 in May 2009) continues to be high. As of June 12, 2009, the total number of people on Ontario Works gaining employment in 2009 is 32.7% lower than last year. Some people gaining employment remain on the caseload while others were able to exit. 3.3% of our ongoing caseload originally applied to Ontario Works due to Employment Insurance (El) being exhausted and less than 1% were not eligible for El due to quit/ firedl laid off. Another 2.8% of our caseload is pending El regular benefits.' Surveys being done by our Intake area note that 28% are applying because they lost work due to plant closure or company layoff. Of these 28%: o 82% lost work in the 12 months prior to application o 33% received Employment Insurance. Labour Market Indicators The Conference Board of Canada's Summer 2009 forecast for the London CMA projects that: Employment will decrease by 2.3% in 2009 but increase by 0.8% in 2010; and 5,000 jobs will be lost this year; 2,000 expected to be created next year. Employment in the London Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) continues to reflect a struggling economy. The London CMA includes: London, St. Thomas, Townships of Middlesex Centre, Thames Centre, Central Elgin, Southwold and StrathroyCaradoc.. Labour Force Survey figures available at the time of the writing of this report show that the London CMA is to experience rising unemployment, with a CMA unemployment rate that reached 11.0% (unadjusted, 3 month moving average) in May. From May 2008 to May 2009 there were 50% more unemployed people in the labour force and 2.8% more people not participating in the labour force. Individuals not participating in the labour force have been referred to as the hidden unemployed. In April 2009 (the most recent data available at the time of this report), the 9,350 Employment Insurance (El) beneficiaries in the London CMA is lower than the 12,720 beneficiaries in the previous month (36% decrease) and the 5,930 in April 2008 (57% increase).

3 Agenda Item # Page # As a result of the higher unemployment rate in the London Area, the number of hours needed to qualify for El has been reduced to 525 (for the period June 7 to July 11). The maximum number of weeks that El can be claimed in London is increased to 50. The number of hours needed to qualify and the maximum number of weeks that benefits may be claimed are adjusted monthly based on local unemployment rates. FINANCIAL IMPACT The 2009 draft budget is based on a twelve month average of 9,081 cases, 10.9% higher than 2008 actual average caseload. Caseload expenditures (net) are 1.2% higher than budgeted for January to May. This is due to the higher than budgeted caseload size. Actual average case costs are lower than budgeted, mitigating the impact of the higher caseload on actual expenditures. Total Expenditures Average Case cost 2009 Budget 2009 Actual 2009 Difference from Budget to Actual Gross $32,014,805 $32,403,076 ($388,271) Net (20%) $ 6,402,961 $ 6,459,715 ($56,754) Gross $ 714 $ 678 $ 36 Net(20%) $ 143 $ 135 $ 8 r &/yl;x;tz Elisabeth K. White Manager, Employment 81 Strategic Initiatives Social and Community Support Services Department of Community Services SUBMITTED BY: Cindy Howard, Director Social and Community Support Services Department of Community Services RECOW DED BY: KLF J 'I Ross L. Fair General Manager Department of Community Services

4 Agenda Item # Pam # Social Assistance Caseload Size' Appendix The number of individuals and households participating in Ontario Works Program are average monthly figures. January February March April May 2009 Caseload 2008 Caseload Percent Change Percent Change 2008 to 2009 Previous Month 9,245 7, % 6.2% 9,352 7, % 1.2% 9, % 2.7% 9,792 8, % 1.9% 9,819 8, % 0.3% January February March April May Percent Change Percent Change Beneficiaries Beneficiaries 2008 to 2009 Previous Month 20,258 17, % 4.6% 20,369 17, % 0.5% 20,827 17, % 2.2% 21,166 18, % 1.6% 21,278 18, % 0.5% 2009 Caseload Dynamics4 Caseload Profile Month I Family Profile Children Time on I I I Assistance Couples Singles cz loraw I total I 0 to6 I 'It012 I 13 to17 I (months) ire I I I I Sole I Temp 477

5 Agenda Item # Page # 2008 Labour Market Indicators Labour Market and Employment Insurance figures are available for the London Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The London CMA includes: London, St. Thomas, Townships of Middlesex Centre, Thames Centre, Central Elgin, Southwold and StrathroyCaradoc. Employment Insurance' In April 2009 (the most recent data available at the time of this report), the number of El beneficiaries in the London CMA is lower than the previous month and higher than the previous year. Number of El Beneficiaries Percent Change from Previous Month April % March , a% April , % Percent Change from Previous Year +15.4% +I 12% +51.7% Employment Figures' Employment in the London CMA' continues to reflect a struggling economy. The total number of people employed as well as the number employed fulltime is lower in both February and March compared to the same time last year and compared to January. The number of unemployed and the unemployment rate are higher.

6 Agenda Item # Page # Data Sources and Definitions ' Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey data as reported on the Labour Market Information report distributed by Service Canada. Source: Tabulated by Social Research and Planning from a local data extract provided by Technology Services to Social Research and Planning. 3 4 Source: London Ontario Works: SDMT Form 5 Report Definitions and Data Sources: Incoming Calls The number of calls made to London's Intake Unit, including inquiry and application calls for London and Middlesex. Internal Report Applications The number of applications where an SDMT record was created for London by any office in Ontario. SDMT Intake Performance Report Verification, (SIE400M) number screening Eligibility The number of individuals and households who are eligible for assistance following a verification interview. Intake Tracking Report (SIEIOOM) Date Granted Number Finding Employment The number of Ontario Works participants who started employment /selfemployment through employment assistance services. This figure is subject to change. January to May reflects data as of the second Friday of the month. June to December reflects data as of the third Friday of the month. SDMSCR2008 and 2009 Reports. Total Exits The number of individuals and households leaving assistance every month for any reason, including reasons such as "missing information". Many who leave for this type of reason are reinstated within two weeks. SDMT Terminations Detail Report (SPRIGOM) Data Sources: Family Profile Form 5 Caseload Statistics, Finance Children Benefit Unit Summary Report, SAR 140M ODSP Participating in Ontario Works Employment ODSP Participants Participating in Ontario Works Employment Programs as at the end of the month. Internal Report provided by Ontario Works Time on Assistance Benefit Unit Summary Report, SAR 140M Source: Statistics Canada. Table Employment Insurance Program (E.I.), beneficiaries by province, census metropolitan areas, census agglomerations.. and sex, monthly. (persons),.. CANSIM (database). htt~://cansim2.statcan.ca/caiwin/cnsmcai.exe?lana=e&canslmfile=cll\cll 1 E.htm&RootDir=CII/ 7 Regular excludes maternity, sickness, parental, etcetera benefit claims * Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey. Unadjusted, 3 month moving average figures ' London CMA includes London, St. Thomas, Townships of Middlesex Centre, Thames Centre, Central Elgin, Southwold and StrathroyCaradoc lo Unemployment rate equals the number unemployed divided by the labour force " Employment rate equals the number employed divided by the population age 15 and over