City of Palo Alto Unfunded Pension Liability and General Fund Finances
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1 City of Palo Alto Unfunded Pension Liability and General Fund Finances Eric Filseth Vice Mayor, City of Palo Alto Nov 2018
2 Summary Summary: Palo Alto pension-accounting reform of Recalculate pension finances independently of CalPERS, using realistic investment-return rates 2. Focus on the Income Statement (Normal Cost) Root problem is systematically underestimated operating expenses, compounded over years or decades 3. Cut operating expenses accordingly, and save the difference in a Section 115 Trust 4. Future: develop a plan to amortize the existing debt Agenda Where are we, and how did we get here What does the future look like What to do about it
3 Palo Alto = Sixth-Highest Pension Liability in State Palo Alto has the sixth-highest unfunded Pension liability per-household in California (pensiontracker.org, 2015) City of Palo Alto. June 2016 unfunded Pension Liability $509M* Add: 2yrs (est) ~$75M Add: unfunded Medical Liability $153M Total UAL Unfunded Actuarial Liability $735M Source: pensiontracker.org (using CalPERS data) Palo Alto now pays 8% of our General Fund towards the existing $509M unfunded pension liability alone = $17M/yr, growing at 17% /yr. Already crowds out $17M/yr of services: Fire, Police, Community Svcs By far the city s fastest-growing expense will double in < 5 years Not including Normal Cost, OPEB * Source: City of Palo Alto Finance Dept, Q1 2018, based on a 6.2% investment ROI
4 If We Balance our Budget Every Year $ $ $350 $ $250 General Fund Revenue General Fund Expense 500 $ $ $100 $ $0 -$ Adpt 2017 Adpt Gen Fund Revenues Gen Fund Expenses Gen Fund Headcount
5 If We Balance our Budget Every Year $ $ $350 $ $250 General Fund Revenue General Fund Expense 500 $ $ $100 $50 $0 -$50 Citywide Unfunded Pension Liability (per CalPERS) Adpt 2017 Adpt Gen Fund Revenues Gen Fund Expenses Citywide Pension UAL Gen Fund Headcount then where did all this Debt come from?
6 If We Balance our Budget Every Year $ $400 General Fund Headcount 700 $350 $ $250 General Fund Revenue General Fund Expense 500 $ $ $100 $50 $0 -$50 Citywide Unfunded Pension Liability (per CalPERS) Adpt 2017 Adpt Gen Fund Revenues Gen Fund Expenses Citywide Pension UAL Gen Fund Headcount then where did all this Debt come from?
7 Impact of Asset-ROI Overestimates on OpEx Did independent actuarial analysis using 6.2% ROI (est fm Wilshire Assoc. 2016) CalPERS = 7.375% going to 7% in 2020 Focused on annual payroll cost, not just UAL Relative to ROI 6.2% --- ROI 7.0% Understates Normal/UAL Cost by 15% Understates Payroll Cost by 3-4.4% Understates GF Expense by 2-3% ROI 7.375% Understates Normal/UAL Cost by 30% Understates Payroll Cost by 6-8.5% Understates GF Expense by 4-6% ROI 8.0% (Proj. by CalPERS for many years) Understates Normal/UAL Cost by 40%? Understates GF Expense by 8%? Source: City of Palo Alto Actuarial Study for Finance Committee 2H 2017 ROI assumption 6.2%/yr; Pension only -- OPEB difference not included
8 From OpEx to Debt Example Calculation Example: GF growth 4.5% --- discount rate 8% --- expense underestimate 8%: - UAL = 100% of General Fund after 11 years - UAL = 150% of General Fund after 15 years Factor Year GF Rev 4.5% $100 $105 $109 $114 $119 $125 $130 $136 $142 $149 $155 $162 $170 $177 $185 $194 $202 $211 $221 $231 GF Expense 4.5% $100 $105 $109 $114 $119 $125 $130 $136 $142 $149 $155 $162 $170 $177 $185 $194 $202 $211 $221 $231 Understate GF Exp. 8.0% Discount Rate 8.0% UAL $8.0 $17.0 $27.1 $38.4 $51.0 $65.1 $80.7 $98.0 $117.2 $138.5 $162.0 $188.0 $216.6 $248.1 $282.7 $320.8 $362.7 $408.6 $458.9 $514.1 Gap from Year 1 $8.0 $8.6 $9.3 $10.1 $10.9 $11.8 $12.7 $13.7 $14.8 $16.0 $17.3 $18.7 $20.1 $21.8 $23.5 $25.4 $27.4 $29.6 $32.0 $34.5 Gap from Year 2 $8.4 $9.0 $9.8 $10.5 $11.4 $12.3 $13.3 $14.3 $15.5 $16.7 $18.0 $19.5 $21.1 $22.7 $24.6 $26.5 $28.6 $30.9 $33.4 Gap from Year 3 $8.7 $9.4 $10.2 $11.0 $11.9 $12.8 $13.9 $15.0 $16.2 $17.5 $18.9 $20.4 $22.0 $23.8 $25.7 $27.7 $29.9 $32.3 Gap from Year 4 $9.1 $9.9 $10.6 $11.5 $12.4 $13.4 $14.5 $15.6 $16.9 $18.2 $19.7 $21.3 $23.0 $24.8 $26.8 $29.0 $31.3 Gap from Year 5 $9.5 $10.3 $11.1 $12.0 $13.0 $14.0 $15.1 $16.4 $17.7 $19.1 $20.6 $22.2 $24.0 $25.9 $28.0 $30.3 Gap from Year 6 $10.0 $10.8 $11.6 $12.6 $13.6 $14.6 $15.8 $17.1 $18.5 $19.9 $21.5 $23.2 $25.1 $27.1 $29.3 Gap from Year 7 $10.4 $11.3 $12.2 $13.1 $14.2 $15.3 $16.5 $17.9 $19.3 $20.8 $22.5 $24.3 $26.2 $28.3 Gap from Year 8 $10.9 $11.8 $12.7 $13.7 $14.8 $16.0 $17.3 $18.7 $20.2 $21.8 $23.5 $25.4 $27.4 Gap from Year 9 $11.4 $12.3 $13.3 $14.3 $15.5 $16.7 $18.1 $19.5 $21.1 $22.7 $24.6 $26.5 Gap from Year 10 $11.9 $12.8 $13.9 $15.0 $16.2 $17.5 $18.9 $20.4 $22.0 $23.8 $25.7 Gap from Year 11 $12.4 $13.4 $14.5 $15.7 $16.9 $18.3 $19.7 $21.3 $23.0 $24.8 Gap from Year 12 $13.0 $14.0 $15.1 $16.4 $17.7 $19.1 $20.6 $22.3 $24.0 Large UAL deficits can be produced by recurring small OpEx gaps, compounded over years Gap from Year 13 $13.6 $14.7 $15.8 $17.1 $18.5 $19.9 $21.5 $23.3 Gap from Year 14 $14.2 $15.3 $16.5 $17.9 $19.3 $20.8 $22.5 Gap from Year 15 $14.8 $16.0 $17.3 $18.7 $20.2 $21.8 Gap from Year 16 $15.5 $16.7 $18.1 $19.5 $21.1 Gap from Year 17 $16.2 $17.5 $18.9 $20.4 Gap from Year 18 $16.9 $18.3 $19.7 Gap from Year 19 $17.7 $19.1 Gap from Year 20 $18.5
9 Pension Costs and City Expenses Two pension-related OpEx components: Normal Cost UAL Amortization Payment (Normal Cost is in here, as calculated at CalPERS asset-roi) UAL Payment Determined by Estimated size of UAL - Estimated Asset ROI Amortization schedule PLUS: Portion of Normal Cost not explicitly recognized in CAFR (OpEx gap)
10 Effects of Growth in UAL Amortization Pmt Assume General Fund growth = 4.5%/yr 4.4% $7M 7.9% $17M 14% $37M 23% $71M % 20.0% Actual UAL Payment Growth Rate %/yr Projection UAL Payment Drivers Future drops in CalPERS ROI until reach 6.2% increases Estimated unfunded liability 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% UAL Payment % of Gen Fund 7.9% Understated wagegrowth estimates also understate estimated liability Recurring OpEx gaps continue to increase Actual Liability UAL Payment Growth % UAL Payment % of GF
11 Impacts on City Operations $35,000 $30,000 Budget % since 2005 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 Fire Staffing % since 2005 $10, $5, $ Operating Budget - Fire Headcount - Fire (FTE) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Staffing Budget Police % since % since 2005 Operating Budget - Police Headcount - Police (FTE)
12 The Easy Stuff Outsourcing Aquatics management Parking enforcement Refuse collection, tree trimming Animal shelter People technology: cameras Staffing and work-rules mix: Fires Medical services Capital impacts Dropped bid for Post Office building Scaled back Adobe Creek bike bridge Revenue increases Full cost-recovery on most city fees, indexed to cost increases Utility rates (only relevant to Utility Funds UAL) Direct tax increases not so far
13 The First Rule of Holes You cannot get out of debt while you are still adding on new debt
14 Plan 1. First stop adding new debt i. Recalculate actuarial pension finances independently of CalPERS, using realistic investment-return rates done City of Palo Alto Used 6.2% ROI FY2019 Gen. Fund OpEx gap $8M ii. iii. Focus on the Income Statement, not just the Balance Sheet done i. The root problem is systematically underestimated operating expenses, compounded over years or decades Close OpEx gap cut operating expenses accordingly, and save the difference partial i. Presumably in our Section 115 Trust Actuarial analysis by Bartel Associates Also deploying GovInvest actuarial software in COPA Finance Dept Directed City Manager to find structural cuts for half the gap ($4M) in FY Expect seek the other half next year Expectation is to use our Sec 115 Trust for the savings - Allows investment at market rates 2. Develop a plan to amortize the existing debt Future initiative Also need expand to OPEB (retiree medical) and beyond General Fund (Utilities )
15 Thank You
16 CalPERS Projections and Riskless-Asset Returns Jeremy Bulow, Stanford GSB Sept 2017 CalPERS Projected returns followed riskless asset return rates up but not back down (their Actual returns did fall, but not Projected returns)
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