PROFITING FROM DEMOGRAPHICS. Adrian Harrington ASA Seminar - Investing For The Times 4 August 2017

Transcription

1 PROFITING FROM DEMOGRAPHICS Adrian Harrington ASA Seminar - Investing For The Times 4 August

2 INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE Market forces continue to re-shape the landscape Capital is changing a greater array of investors and investment opportunities Redefining what types of investment are included in the portfolio 2

3 COMPARING GENERATIONS Age Timeline Generation Age in 2017 Born after 1980 Millennial 36 and younger Born between Generation X Born between Baby Boomer Born between Silent Point when most of the generation is aged

4 KEY DEMOGRAPHIC THEMES POPULATION GROWTH GROWTH OF MIDDLE CLASS AGEING POPULATION Rising Demand Changing Consumption / Lifestyle Increased Dependency WORKING LONGER INCREASING FEMALE PARTICIPATION URBANISATION Source: FLK/FIL Ageing Workforce Increasing Productivity And Also Demand for Childcare Changing Spatial Patterns 4

5 POLUATION AGE STRUCTURE Age Structure of the Population: 2006, 2011 and 2016 three key growth cohorts children (0-9), young adult (20-34) and baby boomers (60-74) the year cohort (in 2016 those born ) showed the most growth over the ten years, up 57% Source: ABS/.ID 5

6 POPULATION GROWTH Sydney and Melbourne growing above trend Population forecasting has consistently fallen short ABS forecast s 1999 vs 2016: Australia m vs 24.2m Sydney m vs 5.0m Melbourne m vs 4.7m Inner city & middle ring population growth stronger than expected Infrastructure has not kept pace Pressure on social services childcare/aged care/schools/medical especially inner & middle ring Greater Sydney Greater Melbourne Greater Brisbane Greater Adelaide Greater Perth Greater Hobart Greater Darwin ACT Total Cities Demographic Shift Cities NT -2,696 Population at 30 June ,005,358 4,641,636 2,349,699 1,326,354 2,066, , , ,294 16,152,336 Change on Previous Year No. % 82, ,770 41,135 9,371 27,428 1,786 1,147 5, ,454 Net Interstate Migration QLD 11,581 Creates social infrastructure real estate investment opportunities WA -7,703 NSW -11,349 SA -6,398 Vic 16,699 6

7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND LABOUR PARTICIPATION Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Cohort: December 2015 Impact of ageing upon workforce participation rates - businesses will need to adopt more flexible work arrangements as labour becomes harder to find and also focus on attracting and retaining female workers Source: ABS, Outlook Economics, ANZ Research 7

8 Employment Growth ('000) SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Healthcare & Social Assistance Public Administration & Safety Accom. & Food Services Education & Training Professiona l, Scientific & Tech Services IT & 0.0 Media Employment Growth (%) Social Infrastructure related jobs Lifestyle related jobs Future related jobs Source: Department of Employment Strong growth in social infrastructure employment across health, social services, education and government 8

9 DIGITAL DISRUPTION Source: Deloitte The impact of disruption has not been fully felt yet in long fuse industries. Health and education, for example, are grappling with questions about how to provide high quality services remotely 9

10 DEMOGRAPHICS AGEING & AUTOMATION Effect of Ageing on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation Countries with ageing populations are likely at the forefront of adopting robots. They suggest that, where capital is abundant and cheap labour scarce, technology can fill the gap and even lead to higher economic growth. Source: NBER, Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Ageing on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation 10

11 DEMOGRAPHICS AND WEALTH The Income and Consumption Lifestyle The Financial Assets, Debt and Savings Life Cycle Workers tend to be borrowers in the early stages of their lives, to acquire human capital (via student loans), or to purchase housing (via mortgages). From the point after they take on a mortgage, they revert to being net savers each year until the date of their retirement, and draw down on their net wealth to smooth their consumption as labour income falls. 11

12 DEMOGRAPHICS - CHANGING LIFESTYLE CONSUMPTION Retail Spending: % Change Between 2007 and 2017 Pharmaceutical, cosmetic & toiletry goods Cafes, restaurants & takeaway food services Liquor Supermarkets & groceries Hardware, building & garden supplies Clothing Household goods Furniture, floor coverings, houseware Footwear & other personal accessories Electrical & electronic goods Other recreational goods Department stores Other specialised food retailing Newspaper & books Total % Lifestyle changes means changing spending patterns Source: ABS 12

13 WHY CHILDCARE? CHILDCARE ATTRIBUTES PROPERTY ATTRIBUTES Increasing participation rate & demand Government funding Increasing industry standards Quality key to social & economic benefits Strong industry conditions for operators Land rich alternate use provides 2nd value driver Predominantly residential underlying land use in high demand locations 15 year initial lease terms, typically triple net leases with annual rent reviews Industry growth allows for development profits 13

14 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 LISTED CHILDCARE Listed Childcare Operators July 2015 June 2017 Listed Childcare A-REITs: July 2015 June 2017 $300 Think G8 $300 Arena Folkestone Education Trust $280 $280 $260 $260 $240 $240 $220 $220 $200 $200 $180 $180 $160 $160 $140 $140 $120 $120 $100 $100 $80 $80 Source: IRESS Source: IRESS 14

15 SENIORS LIVING CONTINUUM OF CARE 15

16 WHY SENIORS LIVING? Ageing population Penetration rates increasing New investment retirement living - $2bn p.a. at current penetration rates aged care - $25bn to 2025 Fragmented sector presents consolidation opportunities Quality of stock differs opportunity to create modern facilities with strong service, not just a residential play % Australian Population > 65 Years No. people > 65 years (millions; LHS) % of population > 65 years Proportion 65+ Years Living In Retirement Villages 12% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 5% 5% 7% 0% Australia NZ US 16

17 SENIORS LIVING FUTURE TRENDS RETIREMENT VILLAGE TRENDS sector consolidation larger villages with bigger apartments more lifestyle facilities - pool, gyms, café/restaurants, cinema, day spa vertical developments increasing/harmonising regulation AGED CARE TRENDS sector consolidation greater emphasis/funding on home care vs residential care move to Consumer Directed Care Federal budget constraints putting more pressure on user-pays Retirement Village Convergence Home Care Residential Aged Care Customers Expectations Will Change As Customers Are Becoming: more educated more discerning more demanding have more money with more choice CONVERGENCE CO-LOCATION co-location of retirement & aged care Consumer Directed Care 17

18 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 LISTED SENIORS LIVING Listed Aged Care Operators: July 2015 June 2017 Listed Seniors Living Property Groups: July 2015 June 2017 $160 Japara Regis Estia $160 Eureka Group Aveo Summerset Ingenia $140 $140 $120 $120 $100 $100 $80 $80 $60 $60 $40 $40 Source: IRESS Source: IRESS 18

19 $ Billion WHY HEALTHCARE? Ageing Population Changing Health Consumer Expectations Australian Health Expenditure: 2004/ /15 (Constant Prices 2014 / 2015) Increase in Chronic Diseases Changing Lifestyles Therapeutic Advances & Changing Clinical Practice Hospitalisations By Age Group & Gender: Increasing Costs of Care Fragmentation of Delivery & Sub-optimal Patient Flow Technological Advances Fragmentation of Funding Health Workforce Shortages Source: AIHW/PWC 19

20 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 LISTED HEALTHCARE Listed Hospital/Medical Companies July 2015 June 2017 Listed Hospital A-REIT: July 2015 June 2017 $160 Ramsay Primary Sonic $160 GHC $140 $140 $120 $120 $100 $100 $80 $80 $60 $60 $40 $40 Source: IRESS Source: IRESS 20

21 ($m) WHY FOOD? Population growth and rising income per capita levels in the developing world is expected to drive growth in food demand by ~70% by 2050 Increasing middle class of the emerging countries, especially China, is rapidly increasing its food consumption End Value of the Australian Food Sector: Diet changes growth in energy-dense diets high in fat, particularly saturated fat, sugar and salt and low in micronutrients, dietary fibre and important bioactive phytochemicals Australian food supply chain encompasses various levels of value add ranging from farm level exports through to prepared meals Sales by Market Segment: 2015 Since 2000 Australia has signed FTA s with Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and China while entering economic partnerships with Indonesia, Korea and Japan Improved trading terms and the relative close proximity to Asia should see continued growth in Australian food exports to Asia Source: Bell Potter/ABARES/ABS 21

22 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 LISTED FOOD Listed Food and Agricultural Companies: July 2015 June 2017 Listed Rural A-REIT: July 2015 June 2017 $620 A2 Milk Austn Ag Co Bega Cheese Tassal Treasury Wines $620 Rural Funds $560 $560 $500 $500 $440 $440 $380 $380 $320 $320 $260 $260 $200 $200 $140 $140 $80 $80 Source: IRESS Source: IRESS 22

23 CONCLUSION Challenging time to be putting money to work across all investment asset classes Demographics underpin economic growth, fiscal outcomes, employment, inflation and asset prices Funding pressure of governments creates opportunities but also heightened regulatory risk especially in sectors like childcare, health and seniors living Listed companies look for companies with recurring earnings and growth, strong inorganic growth profile and a low risk acquisition strategy Listed real estate look for A- REITs with good asset selection, active asset/development management, appropriate capital structures (i.e. gearing), and that partner with quality operators Despite demographic tailwinds successful investing in listed companies or listed real estate based on demographic thematic still requires: to distinguish between short-term disruptions and long-term trends. Many investors focus on and overreact to the short-term, which can create a significant discrepancy between a company's or A-REITs price and its long-term prospects a disciplined investment process that properly prices risk 23

24 DIRECTORY FOLKESTONE LIMITED ASX Code: FLK Website: ABN: Level 14, 357 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 T: Level 10, 60 Carrington Street Sydney, NSW 2000 T: INDEPENDENT BOARD OF DIRECTORS Garry Sladden Non-Executive Chairman Mark Baillie Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Greg Paramor AO Managing Director Ross Strang Non-Executive Director COMPANY SECRETARY Scott Martin Telephone: INVESTOR RELATIONS Lula Liossi Telephone: lliossi@folkestone.com.au REGISTRY Boardroom Pty Limited P.O. Box R67, Royal Exchange NSW 1223 Telephone: or enquiries@boardroomlimited.com.au 24