Wednesday, December 14, 2016

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1 For Discussion Purposes Only Preliminary i Bond Capacity Analysis Wednesday, December 14, 2016 subsidiary of BOK Financial Corporation. Services may be offered under our trade name, BOK Financial Advisors.

2 Summary of District s Existing Bonds $10,000,000 Sherman Independent School District s (the District ) existing bond payments are conservatively structured with annual principal and interest payments over 16-years. $9,000,000 $8,000,000 Annual Bond Payments $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 2016/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /32 Unlimited Tax School Building & Refunding Bonds, Series 1995-A Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 1998 Unlimited Tax School Building & Refunding Bonds, Series 2006-A Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 2007 Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 2012 Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 2013 Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 2014 Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 2015 Note: Debt service payments reflect payments from September 1 through August 31. The District has a total principal amount of existing bonds equal to $67,950,000. 1

3 Debt Factors Taxable Assessed Valuation The value of the District s tax base is a primary factor impacting the District s bond capacity As this determines the annual revenues generated from the District s I&S tax rate. The District s taxable assessed valuation (net of frozen values) is $2,702,342,882 for fiscal year 2016/17. Over the last decade, the increases in the District s taxable values have been volatile. Maximum tax base increase occurred in Year 2014/15: $268,068,589; Average tax base increase last 5-years: $101,682,001; and Average tax base increase last 10-years: $85,765,416. Historical Increases/(Decreases) in Taxable Valuations Years 2007/ /17 Dollar In ncrease $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 ($50,000,000) $268,068,589 $177,404,423 $138,300,058 $129,811,787 $81,475,069 $54,419,768 $4,798,460 $17,092,890 ($5,141,219) ($8,575,664) 2007/ / / / / / / / / /17 Source: Grayson Central Appraisal District. 2

4 Debt Factors Interest Rates The Bond Buyer 20-Bond Index A Tax-Exempt General Obligation Bond Yield Index January 1, 2000 To The Present Yield (% %) % Average = 4.47% 3.75 Municipal interest rates have increased by 3.50 approximately 0.51% since the November election and are currently 0.69% below the historical average since year % % Based upon a $100.0 million bond sale repaid over a 30-year period, an interest rate difference of 0.25% changes the District s interest cost by approximately $6,100,000 and bond capacity by $3,650,000. 3

5 Preliminary Bond Capacity Analysis The Preliminary Bond Capacity Analysis is based upon the assumptions summarized herein. To the extent the District s s actual results differ from the assumptions herein, the financial impact to the District will correspondingly change. Scenario Presented Determine the District s estimated bond capacity over the next 10-years at a maximum I&S tax rate of 50.0 cents: Average TAV Growth Last 10-Years: Taxable values increase by $85,765,416 in each of the next 16-years and remain constant thereafter. We note the District s bond capacity over the next 10-years will vary based upon its actual certified taxable values in future years. However, to help ensure the District may complete all capital improvements included within a bond program, we recommend the District use its historical annual tax value growth to determine its available bond capacity. 4

6 Preliminary Bond Capacity Analysis State Debt Limitation Pursuant to State law, the District may only issue new bonds to the degree it can demonstrate its I&S tax rate will not exceed 50.0 cents (the Stated mandated 50-Cent Debt Test ). However, there is not a limit on the amount of bonds that may be authorized in a bond election. Other Assumptions The District s Year 2016/17 I&S tax rate is 27.0 cents. The I&S tax rate increase for the new bond program occurs in year 2017/18. Bonds are sold at interest rates of 4.50% % (current market rates of interest are approximately 4.25%). Bonds are structured with principal payments over 30-years. However, the District will have the flexibility to prepay the bonds prior to scheduled maturity, without penalty. District will not receive any State assistance for the repayment of bonds. 5

7 Summary of Projected Capital Needs As summarized within the table below, the District s projected capital needs totals approximately $305.5 million in today s dollars. Summary of Projected Capital Needs Totaling $305,515,735 Total Estimated Project Project Cost Package No. 1 $159,225,367 Construction of a New High School 145,136,477 Campus Technology 12,537,890 District Technology 1,551,000 Package No. 2 $ 41,906,922 Convert Sherman High School to a Middle School 14,002,475 Construct a New Stadium 27,904,447 Package No. 3 $ 23,522,801 Convert Dillingham Intermediate School to a Middle School 23,522,801 Package No. 4 $ 80,860,645, Replace Fairview Elementary School 26,968,441 Replace Crutchfield Elementary School 26,925,758 Replace Wakefield Elementary School 26,768,383 Pre-K KRenovation at 1Elementary School 198,063 Total $ 305,515,735 Source: VLK Architects Scenario 1. 6

8 Estimate of District s Bond Capacity Over the Next 10-Years At this time, the District s available bond capacity is $ million, while its identified capital needs are approximately $305.5 million. Assuming the District s historical average annual taxable value growth of $85,765,416, the District will have an additional bond capacity of $ million in 10-years Equals a total bond capacity of $ million over this period. Due to projected inflation, the District s identified capital needs will increase to approximately $373.1 million in the next 10-years. To generate $373.1 million of bond capacity, the District s taxable values will need to increase to $5.48 billion. To achieve, the District s historical annual rate of taxable value growth will need to double to $173.6 million per year. Summary of Bond Capacity Next 10-Years District Average TAV Growth of $85,765,416 Description $160,460,000 Current Bond Capacity $259,695,000 Bond Capacity Year 2027 $373,100,000 Of Projected Capital Needs Current FY 2016/17 Taxable Value $ 2,702,342,882 $ 2,702,342,882 $ 2,702,342,882 Plus: Taxable Value Growth Required To Issue Bonds 514,592,496 1,372,246,656 2,778,814,334 Actual/Projected Taxable Value Required To Issue Bonds $ 3,216,935,378 $ 4,704,589,538 $ 5,481,157,216 Average Annual Taxable Value Growth Required $ 85,765,416 $ 85,765,416 $ 173,675,896 Average Taxable Value Growth Last 10-Years $ 85,765, Maximum Taxable Value Growth Last 10-Years $ 268,068, Current Bond Capacity $ 160,460,000 $ 160,460,000 $ 160,460,000 Plus: Additional Capacity Year ,235,000, 212,640,000, Maximum Bond Capacity $ 160,460,000 $ 259,695,000 $ 373,100,000 Projected Capital Needs (Inflation Adjusted) $ 305,515, $ 373,101,863 7

9 Preliminary Bond Capacity Analysis I&S Tax Rate Maximum Projected I&S Tax Rate and I&S Tax Increase For Various Taxable Home Values 50.0 Cents 60.0 Cents Taxable 55.0 Cents 50.0 Cents 45.0 Cents 40.0 Cents 23.0 Cents 35.0 Cents 30.0 Cents 25.0 Cents 20.0 Cents 15.0 Cents 27.0 Cents 10.0 Cents 5.0 Cents 0.0 Cents Current I&S Tax Rate New Bond Program Cent Tax Rate Projected I&S Tax Rate Increase New Bond Program Home Value Annual Monthly $75,000 $ $ , , , , , , , , , , , , Note: The State Property Tax Code allows for school property taxes on an individual homestead to be frozen at the age of 65. If you are 65 years of age or older and you have filed for the Over 65 Homestead Exemption, there is a ceiling on the amount of school taxes to be paid The only exception is if improvements are made to a home. As such, a tax increase from a new bond program cannot increase the applicable tax ceiling of a taxpayer that has qualified for the Over 65 Homestead Exemption. Note: Taxes are net of the $25,000 Residential Homestead Exemption. 8

10 Questions Howcanwebeof we o service? 9

11 BOK Financial Securities, Inc. p Texas School District Finance Team Specialized William J. Gumbert Joshua M. McLaughlin Managing Director, Director of Texas Public Finance Managing Director, Co-Director of Texas Public Finance bgumbert@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: jmclaughlin@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: Dr. Cathy C h Bryce Omar Garcia O G i Investment Banker, Texas Public Finance Investment Banker, Texas Public Finance cbryce@bokf.com Mobile: Fax: ogarcia@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: Mike Jolly Alison M. Long Investment Banker, Texas Public Finance Investment Banker, Texas Public Finance mjolly@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: alison.long@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: John H. Robuck Steven Murray Managing Director, Texas Public Finance Analyst, Texas Public Finance 1401 McKinney Street, Street Suite 1000 Houston, Houston Texas jrobuck@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: West Campbell Road Road, Suite 350 Richardson, Richardson Texas steven.murray@bokf.com Direct: Mobile: Fax: