Liquidity Creation as Volatility Risk

Transcription

1 Liquidity Creation as Volatility Risk Itamar Drechsler Alan Moreira Alexi Savov New York University and NBER University of Rochester March, 2018

2 Motivation 1. A key function of the financial sector is liquidity creation: making assets cheaper to trade. It does so in different ways: - issuing safe securities against risky assets (Gorton Pennacchi, 1990) - making markets for trading risky assets (Kyle, 1985) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 2

3 Motivation 1. A key function of the financial sector is liquidity creation: making assets cheaper to trade. It does so in different ways: - issuing safe securities against risky assets (Gorton Pennacchi, 1990) - making markets for trading risky assets (Kyle, 1985) 2. Liquidity creation is fundamentally exposed to asymmetric information (Akerlof, 1970). From this, we show - that liquidity creation induces exposure to volatility risk (a negative beta to volatility shocks) - and since the variance risk premium is very high, liquidity creation earns a substantial premium Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 2

4 Motivation 1. A key function of the financial sector is liquidity creation: making assets cheaper to trade. It does so in different ways: - issuing safe securities against risky assets (Gorton Pennacchi, 1990) - making markets for trading risky assets (Kyle, 1985) 2. Liquidity creation is fundamentally exposed to asymmetric information (Akerlof, 1970). From this, we show - that liquidity creation induces exposure to volatility risk (a negative beta to volatility shocks) - and since the variance risk premium is very high, liquidity creation earns a substantial premium 3. Our results provide a new, asset-pricing perspective on the risks and returns to financial intermediation: - explains the level and variation of the liquidity premium in financial markets (Nagel, 2012) - explains how a surge in volatility can trigger a liquidity crunch (Brunnermeier, 2009) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 2

5 Why is liquidity creation exposed to volatility risk? 1. Liquidity providers face liquidity-driven traders and informed traders who buy if price will rise, sell if it will fall informed traders payoff looks like a straddle (a call plus a put option) Investor profit Informed trader Asset value P 0 Liquidity-driven trader Liquidity provider Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 3

6 Why is liquidity creation exposed to volatility risk? 1. Liquidity providers face liquidity-driven traders and informed traders who buy if price will rise, sell if it will fall informed traders payoff looks like a straddle (a call plus a put option) liquidity providers are short the straddle Investor profit Informed trader Asset value P 0 Liquidity-driven trader Liquidity provider Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 3

7 Why is liquidity creation exposed to volatility risk? 1. Liquidity providers face liquidity-driven traders and informed traders who buy if price will rise, sell if it will fall informed traders payoff looks like a straddle (a call plus a put option) liquidity providers are short the straddle negative exposure to volatility Investor profit Informed trader Asset value P 0 Liquidity-driven trader Liquidity provider Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 3

8 Why is liquidity creation exposed to volatility risk? 1. Liquidity providers face liquidity-driven traders and informed traders who buy if price will rise, sell if it will fall informed traders payoff looks like a straddle (a call plus a put option) liquidity providers are short the straddle negative exposure to volatility Investor profit Informed trader Asset value P 0 Liquidity-driven trader Liquidity provider 2. Volatility highly correlated across assets and with market volatility liquidity providers volatility risk is undiversifiable Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 3

9 Liquidity creation and short-term reversals 1. Use short-term reversals as proxy for return to liquidity provision (Lehman 1990) - daily decile sort by normalized return, largest 20% of stocks, buy low-return decile, sell high-return decile, hold for five days Annualized return (%) VIX Reversal strategy average return VIX (right) 2. Reversal premium is strongly increasing in VIX (Nagel, 2012) - seen in other markets, e.g. Treasuries during the 2008 financial crisis - consistent with volatility spikes inducing a liquidity crunch Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 4

10 Liquidity creation and short-term reversals 3. Regress reversal return on VIX changes (rolling window) - beta is negative: 14 bps for every 1 point increase in VIX; large relative to 27 bps average five-day return - annualized standard deviation of the fitted component captures the volatility risk of the reversal strategy Annualized standard deviation (%) VIX Reversal strategy systematic volatility due to VIX VIX (right) 4. Volatility risk of reversal strategy is also strongly increasing in VIX - lines up with level and dynamics of reversal premium Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 5

11 Roadmap 1. Overview 2. Related literature 3. Model 4. Empirical results Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 6

12 Related literature 1. Liquidity and adverse selection: Akerlof (1970); Grossman and Stiglitz (1980); Kyle (1985); Glosten and Milgrom (1985); Gorton and Pennacchi (1990) 2. Macro finance and liquidity: Gromb and Vayanos (2002); Eisfeldt (2004); Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2008); Adrian and Shin (2010); Moreira and Savov (2017) 3. Asset prices and liquidity: Amihud and Mendelson (1986); Amihud (2002); Pástor and Stambaugh (2003); Acharya and Pedersen (2005); Nagel (2012) 4. The variance risk premium: Carr and Wu (2008); Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009); Drechsler and Yaron (2010); Drechsler (2013); Dew-Becker, Giglio, Le, and Rodriguez (2017) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 7

13 Model setup 1. Add stochastic volatility to Kyle (1985) framework - three dates: 0, t (0, 1), and 1; N stocks traded at date 0 - asset payoffs realized at date 1: p i,1 = v i + σ i,1 v i - volatility increasing in market volatility factor (e.g. Herskovic, Kelly, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016): σ i,1 = k i,m σ m,1 + ε σi 2. Liquidity-driven ( noise ) traders demand z i N ( 0, σ 2 z i ) 3. Informed trader observes v i at date 0, demands y i : max y i E Q 0 [y i (p i,1 p i,0 ) v i ] - E Q 0 [ ] is taken under the risk-adjusted probability measure Q Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 8

14 Equilibrium pricing 1. Liquidity providers see order flow x i = y i + z i, set price to break even. Use same risk-adjusted measure Q as everyone else - no balance sheet frictions or market segmentation p i,0 = E Q 0 [ p i,1 x i ] = v i + x i 2σ zi E Q 0 [σ i,1 ] - sensitivity to order flow increasing in expected volatility because it captures the value of the informed trader s information 2. Let p i,0 = (p i,0 v i ) be the date-0 price change. Then to clear market, the liquidity providers position is 2σ zi x i = p i,0 E Q 0 [σ i,1] liquidity providers hold a portfolio of reversals; they buy assets that went down in price and sell assets that went up - can use reversals as proxy for returns to liquidity provision Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 9

15 Volatility risk exposure 1. At date t, a shock to expected volatility causes price to move further in direction of order flow as informed trader s information becomes more valuable: p i,t = x ( ) i Et Q [σ i,1 ] E Q 0 2σ [σ i,1] zi 2. Liquidity providers payoff is x i p i,t = x i 2 ( ) Et Q [σ i,1 ] E Q 0 2σ [σ i,1] zi - since x i = σ zi v i + z i, payoff resembles a short straddle in v i liquidity providers (reversals) have a negative exposure to volatility shocks on both long and short positions - exposure is increasing in date-0 volume x i Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 10

16 Volatility risk pricing 1. Liquidity providers exposure to the market volatility factor σ m is β σm = N i=1 β i,σm - this exposure is undiversifiable = N i=1 x 2 i 2σ zi k i,m < 0 - contrasts with inventory models which assume liquidity providers cannot fully diversify (e.g., Nagel 2012) 2. The expected payoff of liquidity providers from date 0 to 1 is [ N ] ) x i p i,1 = β σm (E0 P [σ m,1 ] E Q 0 [σ m,1] E P 0 i=1 - the variance risk premium literature shows E Q 0 [σm,1] E P 0 [σ m,1] (VIX realized volatility of S&P 500) - and since β σm < 0, liquidity providers (reversals) earn a positive risk premium for bearing volatility risk Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 11

17 Data and empirical strategy 1. Form reversal portfolios to mimic returns to liquidity provision (Lehman, 1990) - sort daily into deciles by return, normalized by rolling standard deviation. Within each decile, weight by dollar volume (proxy for x i ) - split by size quintile, remove penny stocks, earnings announcements (large public information events), 100 stocks in each portfolio - sample period from 4/9/2001 to 12/31/2016 (3,958 days). Post decimalization, liquidity provision competitive (Bessembinder, 2003) - hold portfolios for one to five days (Nagel, 2012). Not HFT - reversal strategy buys low-return deciles, sells high-return deciles 2. Model predicts that the reversal strategy should - have a negative exposure to shocks to expected volatility - this exposure should explain the premium of the reversal strategy Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 12

18 Portfolio summary statistics Market cap (billions) Lo-Hi Small Big Amihud illiquidity ( 10 6 ) Lo-Hi Small Big Lo-Hi buys Lowest return decile, sells Highest return decile 2. Big are the 20% Biggest stocks, 96.4% of market value - liquid, low transaction costs Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 13

19 Portfolio summary statistics Sorting-day returns (%) Lo-Hi Small Big Share turnover (%) Lo-Hi Small Big Reversal strategy has large negative sorting-day return (by design) - larger for small stocks since sorting is by normalized return - reversal associated with high share turnover, demand for liquidity Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 14

20 Average returns and CAPM alphas 5 R p t,t+5 = αp + βs p Rt+s M + ɛ p t,t+5 s=1 5-day average return (%) Lo-Hi Small Big day standard deviation (%) Lo-Hi Small Big day CAPM alpha (%) Lo-Hi Small Big day CAPM alpha t-statistic Lo-Hi Small Big Large-stock reversal strategy has an average annual return of 13.6% (= 0.27% 252/5), volatility 23%, Sharpe ratio small-stock reversal returns are larger but more volatile - CAPM alphas average returns CAPM cannot price reversals Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 15

21 Predicting reversals with VIX R p t,t+5 = αp + β p VIX t + ɛ p t,t+5 5-day return VIX loading ( 10 2 ) Lo-Hi Small Big day return VIX t-statistic Lo-Hi Small Big day return VIX R 2 (%) Lo-Hi Small Big VIX predicts reversal returns (Nagel, 2012), even for large stocks - very high R 2 for large stocks - consistent with model because when VIX is high, premium for volatility risk rises (Drechsler and Yaron, 2010) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 16

22 Volatility risk exposure R p t,t+5 = αp + 5 s=1 βs p,vix VIX t+s + ɛ p t,t+5 5-day VIX beta Lo-Hi Small Big day VIX beta t-statistic Lo-Hi Small Big Reversal strategy has a large negative beta to VIX innovations - large-stock reversal drops by 64 bps per 5-point VIX increase (1.3 standard deviations); large relative to average return (27 bps) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 17

23 Volatility risk exposure, controlling for the market R p t,t+5 = αp + 5 s=1 β p,vix s VIX t+s + 5 s=1 βs p,m Rt+s M + ɛp t,t+5 5-day VIX beta Lo-Hi Small Big day VIX beta t-statistic Lo-Hi Small Big Reversal strategy negative VIX beta unaffected by controlling for market return Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 18

24 Reversal strategy dynamics Average returns Predictive loadings on VIX days Lo-Hi days Lo-Hi Average returns increase steadily with horizon, line up with predictive loadings Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 19

25 Reversal strategy dynamics Cumulative exposure to VIX Cumulative exposure to VIX, controlling for R M days Lo-Hi days Lo-Hi VIX betas increase steadily with horizon, line up with average returns and predictive loadings Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 20

26 Pricing the reversal strategy: Fama-Macbeth regressions Factor premia Market t-stat. VIX t-stat. R.m.s. p-value (1) (2) CAPM pricing error Lo-Hi Small Big Market plus VIX pricing error Lo-Hi Small Big Fama-Macbeth regressions: VIX factor explains reversal returns of large and medium stocks. Large and significant premium Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 21

27 Pricing the reversal strategy: Fama-Macbeth regressions CAPM Market plus VIX Average return Average return Predicted return Small Big Predicted return Small Big 1. Fama-Macbeth regressions: VIX factor explains reversal returns of large and medium stocks. Large and significant premium Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 22

28 Is the implied price of volatility risk consistent with other markets? 1. Volatility risk is traded directly in option markets - VIX itself is the price of a basket of options that replicates the realized variance of the S&P 500 over next 30 days - However, VIX is not a return because basket changes daily Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 23

29 Is the implied price of volatility risk consistent with other markets? 1. Volatility risk is traded directly in option markets - VIX itself is the price of a basket of options that replicates the realized variance of the S&P 500 over next 30 days - However, VIX is not a return because basket changes daily 2. We replicate the VIX using S&P 500 options (99.83% accuracy) and use the change in the price of a given basket to get a VIX return - can go shorter than 30 days by using VIXN, the near-term component of VIX ( 22 days). VIXN return - this gets us closer to the relevant horizon for liquidity providers Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 23

30 Is the implied price of volatility risk consistent with other markets? 1. Volatility risk is traded directly in option markets - VIX itself is the price of a basket of options that replicates the realized variance of the S&P 500 over next 30 days - However, VIX is not a return because basket changes daily 2. We replicate the VIX using S&P 500 options (99.83% accuracy) and use the change in the price of a given basket to get a VIX return - can go shorter than 30 days by using VIXN, the near-term component of VIX ( 22 days). VIXN return - this gets us closer to the relevant horizon for liquidity providers 3. Average daily VIX return is 1.54%, VIXN return is 2.01% - consistent with variance risk premium literature (Carr and Wu, 2008; Bollerslev, Tauchen, and Zhou, 2009) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 23

31 Option-implied prices of volatility risk R VIX R VIXN VIX 6.938*** (0.106) VIXN 5.696*** (0.120) Constant 1.511*** 1.986*** (0.184) (0.264) Obs. 3,788 3,787 R Implied price of risk: 22 bps for VIX and 35 bps for VIXN - we use R VIX and R VIXN as test assets instead of factors because their ex-post variation is dominated by the day s realized variance - model predicts that liquidity providers are exposed to shocks to expected variance, which is captured by VIX and VIXN Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 24

32 Pricing the reversal strategy: option-implied price of risk Pricing error using VIX return Lo-Hi Small Big Pricing error using VIXN return Lo-Hi Small Big The option-implied price of VIX explains most of the reversal return among large stocks (pricing error falls from 25 bps to 11 bps) 2. The near-term VIXN fully explains it (pricing error is just 1 bp) Near-term volatility risk priced the same in reversals and options Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 25

33 Pricing the reversal strategy: option-implied price of risk Market plus VIX Market plus VIXN Average return Average return Predicted return Small Big Predicted return Small Big 1. Option-implied price of VIXN explains reversal returns of large and medium stocks the returns to liquidity provision reflect broad economic risks instead of intermediation frictions (segmented markets) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 26

34 Takeaways 1. Liquidity creation is a key function of the financial sector 2. Exposure to asymmetric information exposure to volatility risk - liquidity providers implicitly short a straddle 3. Volatility risk commands a high premium in financial markets - explains the level and variation of liquidity premium 4. A new, asset-pricing perspective on the risks and returns to financial intermediation Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 27

35 APPENDIX Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 28

36 Reversal strategy turnover Reversal strategy turnover (%) VIX (right) 1. Reversal strategy turnover increasing in VIX - higher quantity and premium shift in liquidity demand curve - goes against financial constraints theories, which work through shifts in supply curve (e.g., VaR constraint) Drechsler, Moreira, and Savov (2018) 29